Bracketology - week of Jan 20

[BRS24]

Women's Bracketology: How a new metric will help (or hurt) bubble teams

Understanding wins above bubble helps explain why Virginia, which has a 37 NET ranking, is on the outside looking in.

www.espn.com

Monday marked the final significant nonconference day of the regular season -- and it might have been the most impactful. Six projected NCAA tournament teams met in three games, including two that will weigh heavily two months from now when the NCAA tournament selection committee makes its decisions. Vanderbilt stayed unbeaten with its victory over Michigan, picked up another top-10 NET win and now has a firmer grip on the No. 5 overall spot. The Wolverines remain solidly in the top 16 but have a tougher road to the 2 line. Ohio State catapulted from a No. 5 seed to a 3 after beating TCU and seeing seven teams in front of it losing either Sunday or Monday. The Horned Frogs are the final 2-seed but let what would have been their most significant win of the season slip away.​

Ohio State new in top 16, Baylor and Tenn back in. Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech out. Villanova has LFI (last four in), Seton Hall is NFO (next four out).

12 -Big Ten
11 -SEC
9 - ACC
8 - Big 12
2 - Big East

 

[visitingcock]

Women's Bracketology: How a new metric will help (or hurt) bubble teams

Understanding wins above bubble helps explain why Virginia, which has a 37 NET ranking, is on the outside looking in.

www.espn.com

Monday marked the final significant nonconference day of the regular season -- and it might have been the most impactful. Six projected NCAA tournament teams met in three games, including two that will weigh heavily two months from now when the NCAA tournament selection committee makes its decisions. Vanderbilt stayed unbeaten with its victory over Michigan, picked up another top-10 NET win and now has a firmer grip on the No. 5 overall spot. The Wolverines remain solidly in the top 16 but have a tougher road to the 2 line. Ohio State catapulted from a No. 5 seed to a 3 after beating TCU and seeing seven teams in front of it losing either Sunday or Monday. The Horned Frogs are the final 2-seed but let what would have been their most significant win of the season slip away.​

Ohio State new in top 16, Baylor and Tenn back in. Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech out. Villanova has LFI (last four in), Seton Hall is NFO (next four out).

View attachment 116190

12 -Big Ten
11 -SEC
9 - ACC
8 - Big 12
2 - Big East

I still believe that the conference picks should be limited to no more than the top half of the conference plus one. Thus, the Big Ten should have no more than 10 and the SEC no more than 9. Give the 3 leftover spots to G5 runner ups or especially regular season champions who lose in their conference tournaments

 

[BRS24]

I still believe that the conference picks should be limited to no more than the top half of the conference plus one. Thus, the Big Ten should have no more than 10 and the SEC no more than 9. Give the 3 leftover spots to G5 runner ups or especially regular season champions who lose in their conference tournaments

I'm all in for this idea. Similar to CFB, have an overall and/or conference record above .500, although it may make the conference tourney results a bit messy if a really low seed makes a run. That's the other thing I hate - a regular season conf champ puts together a good season, has a bad day in the conf tourney, and doesn't make the big dance, however I'm a realist and know that for some conferences, the tourneys make $$$.

 

[visitingcock]

I'm all in for this idea. Similar to CFB, have an overall and/or conference record above .500, although it may make the conference tourney results a bit messy if a really low seed makes a run. That's the other thing I hate - a regular season conf champ puts together a good season, has a bad day in the conf tourney, and doesn't make the big dance, however I'm a realist and know that for some conferences, the tourneys make $$$.

Conference tournament “messiness” is one of the reasons I would add the plus one to the upper half of the regular season entrants.

 

[Vowelguy]

Surprised (and disagree with) to see Iowa as a 2.

But congrats to the new coach who quietly has done a really good job. Post Clark and Bluder, no one would’ve been surprised if they were struggling to be top 25.

 

[BRS24]

Today's update:

Women's Bracketology: How a new metric will help (or hurt) bubble teams

Understanding wins above bubble helps explain why Virginia, which has a 37 NET ranking, is on the outside looking in.

www.espn.com

South Carolina remains a No. 1 seed despite Thursday’s overtime loss at Oklahoma. The top four seeds -- UConn, UCLA, Texas and South Carolina -- have established a sizable gap ahead of the rest of the country. That could change if unbeaten Vanderbilt beats the Gamecocks on Sunday, but not now. As for the Sooners, no team in the SEC needed a big win more than Oklahoma after losing three in a row. The Sooners fell out of the top 16 and were staring at a tough road back had they lost to South Carolina, but they are back in thanks to 15 overtime points (26 overall) from freshman Aaliyah Chavez, who had her first of what should be many signature moments. Games against Texas and Vanderbilt in the first nine days of February will again test Oklahoma’s top-16 status, but this win resuscitated its résumé.​

On edit - Oklahoma back in the top 16 and Maryland out, and UCLA, Texas, and SC all swapped regions.. Villanova still Last Four In, Seton Hall Next Four Out.

12 -Big Ten
11 -SEC
9 - ACC
9 - Big 12
2 - Big East

 

[Phil]

Today's update:



No changes to the top 16 teams, however UCLA, Texas, and SC all swapped regions.. Villanova still Last Four In, Seton Hall Next Four Out.

??? Isn't Maryland now out of top 16, and Oklahoma back in?

 

[jake0414]

South Carolina’s loss to Oklahoma dropped the Gamecocks to the fourth #1 seed and elevated UCLA and Texas to two and three spots respectively. Crème forgot to update region assignments. UCLA would play in Sacramento along with South Carolina. Texas would get assigned to the Ft Worth region.

 

[Phil]

A case can be made that South Carolina should not drop at all, but that's not how the AP voters roll.

 

[Rudy1927]

I would rather have UCONN meet SC in the semi’s than UCLA or Texas.

 

[Vowelguy]

A case can be made that South Carolina should not drop at all, but that's not how the AP voters roll.

Not much of a case imo.
SC and TX split. tx won neutral sc won home. Slight edge TX

SC lost to Okla , TX lost to LSU. Edge TX.

Tx is 6-2 quad 1. sC 4-2. Edge TX

I’d be voting SC 4th. Lower if they lose to Vandy.

 

[Phil]

My case is simple. South Carolina is ranked second in Massey which which has been proved to be a much better measure of strength subteams than AP polls, coaches polls, RPI and I'll bet net ranking. AP ranking purports to be a ranking of the best teams in order but it's obviously no longer that. It's a system where you get slotted someplace based on gut reactions, then you get to move up if you win with the teams ahead you lose and you move down if you lose, which bears a correlation to overall strength but is not the same thing.

My main case in point is LSU which was ranked fifth in the nation in Massey and in AP then they lost two games and the voters decided to knock them down to 12th, even though they had not dropped a single spot in Massey. Subsequent wins by LSU moved LSU back up proving Massey right.

 

[Phil]

I'm watching an example of the superiority of Massey to AP even as I type.

Kentucky is ranked 11th in the AP, but only 19th in Massey. Unranked Georgia is leading Kentucky at the moment.

I am not missing the fact that neither AP ranking nor Massey ranking guarantees anything, in fact Massey projects that Kentucky should be able to beat Georgia, but a team just outside the top 25 has a lot better chance against a team ranked 19th than a team ranked 11th.

Couple that with the Tennessee win over Kentucky. According to AP that's an upset of the number 17 team over the 11 team. But Massey had this game as number 10 Tennessee versus number 19 Kentucky, projecting a Tennessee win which is exactly what happened.

I'll be pulling for Vanderbilt over South Carolina but it will be a major upset not a small upset.

 

[Vowelguy]

I'm watching an example of the superiority of Massey to AP even as I type.

Kentucky is ranked 11th in the AP, but only 19th in Massey. Unranked Georgia is leading Kentucky at the moment.

I am not missing the fact that neither AP ranking nor Massey ranking guarantees anything, in fact Massey projects that Kentucky should be able to beat Georgia, but a team just outside the top 25 has a lot better chance against a team ranked 19th than a team ranked 11th.

Couple that with the Tennessee win over Kentucky. According to AP that's an upset of the number 17 team over the 11 team. But Massey had this game as number 10 Tennessee versus number 19 Kentucky, projecting a Tennessee win which is exactly what happened.

I'll be pulling for Vanderbilt over South Carolina but it will be a major upset not a small upset.

I think you are conflating “Massey is better” with “Massey is always right.”

Massey had SC better tyan UConn by a WIDE margin heading into last years NC.

 

[MSGRET]

I think you are conflating “Massey is better” with “Massey is always right.”

Massey had SC better tyan UConn by a WIDE margin heading into last years NC.

Everyone had SC better then UConn heading into last years NC game.

 

[Phil]

I was worried it might be misinterpreted so I explicitly noted "neith AP ranking nor Massey ranking guarantees anything". I even pointed out that Massey picked Kentucky over Georgia and that obviously didn't happen. My argument isn't remotely that Massey is always right, my argument is that Massey is better.

 

[Phil]

Massey projected South Carolina over Connecticut 68 – 66. There is no world in which that qualifies as a "WIDE margin"

 

[Sifaka]

@Phil, I wonder what “weight” AP voters and Massey algorithms give to Kentucky's loss of Teonie Key to injury. I believe that if Key were present and uninjured, KY would have defeated TN.

 

[Vowelguy]

I was worried it might be misinterpreted so I explicitly noted "neith AP ranking nor Massey ranking guarantees anything". I even pointed out that Massey picked Kentucky over Georgia and that obviously didn't happen. My argument isn't remotely that Massey is always right, my argument is that Massey is better.

I presented several different factors that, imo, favor Texas over SC.

The sole argument you listed is “Massey rates them better.” Nothing about game results, head to head, same opponents, or anything else. Can you see how I would interpret that as “Massey is perfect”?

 

[Phil]

No

I think you've missed the thrust of this discussion.

I said "A case can be made that South Carolina should not drop at all,"

You responded, "Not much of a case imo."

That means without even asking me about my case, you concluded, in your opinion, that there is no case to be made or at least not much of a case.

Do you agree that's what you said?

I don't have any problem if you want to say you don't follow Massey, you don't believe Massey, you don't put any stock in Massey, but you made a case for South Carolina dropping and dismissed my assertion without any inquiry.

However, this is consuming time I don't have so I'm dropping it.