Bracketology - Week 18

[BRS24]

Well of course there's an update from CC, and hopefully it replaces the usual Tuesday one. Not surprising, especially after all the upsets this weekend. Texas, USC, and UCLA all swap #1 spots. UConn now #2 seed in 4th region. Ole Miss in and Tenn out of top 16. This is going to be a wild week wrt conference tourneys and the bracket.

The season's final day in the Power 4 conferences might have been the wildest of the campaign. Six of the top 16 teams entering the day lost, and Ohio State, which came in at No. 17 overall, also fell. Tennessee and North Carolina suffered shocking and costly home losses. The Lady Vols are now out of the top 16, and as the No. 9 seed in the SEC tournament must play in Wednesday's first round. Because Ohio State and Baylor lost, the Tar Heels hang on to a spot in the top 16, but they're at No. 16. Ole Miss was the big winner, moving from No. 18 to 14 overall by winning at LSU. Alabama lost a game and still moved up higher on the 4-line. That's how tumultuous the day was. The Nos. 1 and 2 seeds remained intact, but LSU -- after its second straight loss and Flau'Jae Johnson out for the SEC tournament -- is at risk of losing a No. 2 seed that a week ago appeared nearly locked up.​

Bubble Watch:
Last 4 byes - Oregon, Indiana, Nebraska, Iowa State
Last 4 In - Washington, Minnesota, Princeton, Harvard
First 4 Out - VA Tech, Arizona, Marquette, St Joseph's
Next 4 Out - George Mason, Stanford, Murray St, Seton Hall

I'm still not seeing 13 teams from the Big Ten: Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 8, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 3, Big East - 2. Hopefully the B10 conf tourney puts an end to this foolishness (IMHO).

 

[Dugway]

I have previously spoken about 'many games still to be played', and I do stick by that. There is a lot that can happen in the conference tournaments that could affect the seeding. Unfortunately, there is also the chance of an injury to someone's key player that could hurt their seeding. As far as what I am seeing right now, after the conclusion of the regular season:

With the exception of an injury or a bad loss in the tournament, I think that the top six or so are going to shake out to still be the top six or so... UConn, Texas, So. Car., So. Cal., Irish, & UCLA. To me, it is unknown how that order gets scrambled around, and frankly I don't know that it much matters! Every single one of those teams, better be prepared to compete against every other one of these teams when it comes to an Elite 8 game. There is simply a lot of parity at the top this season!

To me, it is the bottom end of the two-seeds, and the three and four seeds that will be interesting to see who is placed where, and how beatable each team may be in the dance:

• LSU - In my eyes, trending down; they've lost 3 of last 5, including a loss in their last game of the season yesterday at home against unrated Ole Miss. Johnson is banged up, and without her that team looks very beatable to me. If the tournament were to be picked today, on my scorecard they would not be a 2-Seed, that is for certain.
• N.C. - in my eyes, trending down; they had a home loss yesterday in their last game of the season, to a 16-14 Virginia! It was a close game, but that is a bad loss at home in the final game of the season. They should have destroyed that Virginia team.
• N.C. St. - in my eyes, trending up; they are playing very well over the past two months, including the big win over the Irish. Their last loss was a month and a half ago, on the road to archrival N.C. in a very close 65-66 game. Other than that I don't believe they have lost in 2025 and they play in that ACC Conference, so some pretty stiff competition.
• T.C.U. - in my eyes, trending up; this team has an overall record of 28-3. That is the same 28-3 record that we at UConn have! And, arguably they played as tough of a schedule as we did. They had one bad loss on the entire season, a one-point game to Oklahoma State on the road. We will have to see how their tournament goes, but if it were selection time right now, I would put them in a 2-Seed position.
• Tenn - in my eyes, trending down; I think that they peaked with their win over UConn. A few days after beating us, they lost at home to LSU. And since that loss, they have also lost their last two games of the season. I think they have run out of gas.
• Kan. St. - in my eyes, trending down; their team seems to live and die with Ayoka Lee. That kid is spectacular, but she is big and has foot issues. Just the other day, she had another 'minor surgery', this time to her 'good foot'! Injuries sux for every team, but it is the reality of the game. Kan. State is just not a great team without Lee.
• Ohio St - in my eyes, very solid 3-seed; they lost, but played a very close game (90-93), on the road to a top 20 team Maryland in their last game of the season. That last game of the season, playing at home, well, you have to win that game. And Maryland did, but Ohio State was nip and tuck the entire way. To me, the Buckeyes seem like a team who is going to fight for every single inch that they can!
• Duke - in my eyes, also a 3-seed; a few weeks back they went on a two-game losing streak, to Notre Dame, and then a bad loss at home by 8-pts to Louisville. Since that time, they have beaten N.C., and yesterday on the road, last game of the season they went in and blew apart Florida State. Yes, the same Seminoles who put a thumping to the Irish the week before.
• Kentucky - 4-Seed, I guess (maybe); that team has played a very difficult schedule over the past nine games. They had a bad loss to A&M, and then another bad loss to Ole Miss. And they sure have not beaten LSU, Texas or So Car. They were certainly in those games, but they didn't win any of them and you get no credit for not being blown out. A loss by a dozen is still a loss by a dozen.

 

[LETTERL]

I'm still not seeing 13 teams from the Big Ten: Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 8, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 3, Big East - 2. Hopefully the B10 conf tourney puts an end to this foolishness (IMHO).
View attachment 107418

 

[LETTERL]

Would 3 be an all-time record for the Ivy League?

 

[Stagnant]

I have never considered Washington or Minnesota to be tournament teams at any point this season.

And as a UConn fan, I would like to switch places with either LSU or NC State in this draw. Like the 1 seeds and the 3 seeds more in those two regions.

 

[BRS24]

March 3 update by Megan Gauer at herhoopstats. Changes from yesterday include - Ole Miss, Alabama and Baylor into the top9 16, and OSU, KSU, and Tenn out.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

I personally don’t want to be in South Carolinas bracket.

 

[oldude]

I personally don’t want to be in South Carolinas bracket.

This is not the same SC as in years gone by. They are not as strong in the paint, not as athletic as in years past and they don’t shoot the basketball particularly well.

I say, bring it on!

 

[Vowelguy]

It’s easy to say that team X isn’t good enough to be selected. And then you look at the competition and you find that they are even worse. The bubble every year seems to be a choice between bad, really bad, and awful.

The women’s tourney should’ve stayed at 64 teams. There just isn’t the depth yet.

 

[VA Huskie]

I have previously spoken about 'many games still to be played', and I do stick by that. There is a lot that can happen in the conference tournaments that could affect the seeding. Unfortunately, there is also the chance of an injury to someone's key player that could hurt their seeding. As far as what I am seeing right now, after the conclusion of the regular season:

With the exception of an injury or a bad loss in the tournament, I think that the top six or so are going to shake out to still be the top six or so... UConn, Texas, So. Car., So. Cal., Irish, & UCLA. To me, it is unknown how that order gets scrambled around, and frankly I don't know that it much matters! Every single one of those teams, better be prepared to compete against every other one of these teams when it comes to an Elite 8 game. There is simply a lot of parity at the top this season!

To me, it is the bottom end of the two-seeds, and the three and four seeds that will be interesting to see who is placed where, and how beatable each team may be in the dance:

• LSU - In my eyes, trending down; they've lost 3 of last 5, including a loss in their last game of the season yesterday at home against unrated Ole Miss. Johnson is banged up, and without her that team looks very beatable to me. If the tournament were to be picked today, on my scorecard they would not be a 2-Seed, that is for certain.
• N.C. - in my eyes, trending down; they had a home loss yesterday in their last game of the season, to a 16-14 Virginia! It was a close game, but that is a bad loss at home in the final game of the season. They should have destroyed that Virginia team.
• N.C. St. - in my eyes, trending up; they are playing very well over the past two months, including the big win over the Irish. Their last loss was a month and a half ago, on the road to archrival N.C. in a very close 65-66 game. Other than that I don't believe they have lost in 2025 and they play in that ACC Conference, so some pretty stiff competition.
• T.C.U. - in my eyes, trending up; this team has an overall record of 28-3. That is the same 28-3 record that we at UConn have! And, arguably they played as tough of a schedule as we did. They had one bad loss on the entire season, a one-point game to Oklahoma State on the road. We will have to see how their tournament goes, but if it were selection time right now, I would put them in a 2-Seed position.
• Tenn - in my eyes, trending down; I think that they peaked with their win over UConn. A few days after beating us, they lost at home to LSU. And since that loss, they have also lost their last two games of the season. I think they have run out of gas.
• Kan. St. - in my eyes, trending down; their team seems to live and die with Ayoka Lee. That kid is spectacular, but she is big and has foot issues. Just the other day, she had another 'minor surgery', this time to her 'good foot'! Injuries sux for every team, but it is the reality of the game. Kan. State is just not a great team without Lee.
• Ohio St - in my eyes, very solid 3-seed; they lost, but played a very close game (90-93), on the road to a top 20 team Maryland in their last game of the season. That last game of the season, playing at home, well, you have to win that game. And Maryland did, but Ohio State was nip and tuck the entire way. To me, the Buckeyes seem like a team who is going to fight for every single inch that they can!
• Duke - in my eyes, also a 3-seed; a few weeks back they went on a two-game losing streak, to Notre Dame, and then a bad loss at home by 8-pts to Louisville. Since that time, they have beaten N.C., and yesterday on the road, last game of the season they went in and blew apart Florida State. Yes, the same Seminoles who put a thumping to the Irish the week before.
• Kentucky - 4-Seed, I guess (maybe); that team has played a very difficult schedule over the past nine games. They had a bad loss to A&M, and then another bad loss to Ole Miss. And they sure have not beaten LSU, Texas or So Car. They were certainly in those games, but they didn't win any of them and you get no credit for not being blown out. A loss by a dozen is still a loss by a dozen.

NC has been playing without 2 starters the past few games. They’re expected back soon.

 

[PJCLaw]

Would 3 be an all-time record for the Ivy League?

Seems like it, but what does that say about the BE if the Ivy League gets in 3 teams and the BE only gets in 2? I would think that Seton Hall or Marquette is better than Harvard, Princeton, or Columbia, two of whom will be at large bids according to the pundits! Sheesh, what disrespect!!

 

[Rowdy831]

This is far from over. Texas and South Carolina have to at least make the final of the SEC to hold a 1 seed and UCLA isn't going to win the Big TEn so they will also have another loss which gives room to UConn who should already be at the top tier. In the end though it really comes down to where you land to play and what seed you are with in the seed. Best 5 or worst 4 shouldn't matter since they should play each other before the FF anyway.

Watching all the teams lately I think UConn has the scariest team from top to bottom. They literally have three players who could be in consideration (maybe not this year) for national player of the year discussions. Then you have half the starters from last year sitting the bench ready to make a splash too.

 

[maple]

This is not the same SC as in years gone by. They are not as strong in the paint, not as athletic as in years past and they don’t shoot the basketball particularly well.

I say, bring it on!

While that is true, I think SCar would be extra motivated to beat us. I’d rather be in a bracket with a #1 who might take a win against us for granted …

 

[oldude]

While that is true, I think SCar would be extra motivated to beat us. I’d rather be in a bracket with a #1 who might take a win against us for granted …

I don’t think there’s a WBB team anywhere in the country that would take a win against UConn for granted….