Bracketology - Week 18 (merged)

[bballnut90]

UConn is in a great position to be in either Texas' or USC' region as the highest two seed. They avoid South Carolina and UCLA who are the top 1 seeds which is a great result and once they handle business tomorrow, I like where they are positioned.

UConn has already faced USC and Geno gameplans well against teams that have beat him in the regular season. Also with Aubrey Griffin back - they have a Watkins stopper that can match her size and athleticism.

Texas is extremely limited in their offense and Geno just needs to replicate what SC did today and they will win surely. Really good position for a Final Four.

I actually think Texas and USC might be the tougher matchups of the 1 seeds for UCONN.

Texas is massive inside and can dominate the glass even if they didn’t today. I don’t think a smaller lineup is likely to be as effective against Texas, and they looked bad this weekend but their defense is stifling. They’re very dangerous if Booker is hitting shots or if Holle/Lee can nail open 3s. They make games ugly and are good at pulling them out.

Similarly, USC has a lot of size inside and Iriafen is a matchup nightmare. Watkins is streaky, but when she’s on, she’s the best player in the country.

I think South Carolina would be optimal considering UCONN beat them by 29 on the road. South Carolina played awful that day and UCONN had their game of the season, but UCONN would have a lot of confidence going into that matchup.

UCLA would be a tough matchup too due to size but if it’s a close game, I think UCONN has capable guards who are more likely to take over the game than UCLA’s will.

 

[bballnut90]

Sign me up for #2 TCU is we are a #3. Frog legs are quite tasty from what I remember.

I think Duke would run TCU out of the gym. They’re so athletic.

 

[Stagnant]

1) UCLA
2) SoCar
3) USC
4) Texas
5) UConn
6) ND
7) NCSt
8) Duke
9) TCU
10) LSU
11) Okla
12) Ky
13) UNC
14) Ole Miss
15) Ohiost
16) Bay
17) Tenn


Spok1: 1 UCLA / 8 Duke / 10 LSU / 16 Bay
Birm4: 4 Tex / 5 UConn / 12 Ky / 13 UNC

Birm2: 2 SoCar / 7 NCSt / 9 TCU / 15 OhSt
Spok3: 3 USC / 6 ND / 11 Okla / 14 OlMs

Kentucky as the 3 seed in our region? Sign me up for that.

 

[Plebe]

I agree with this. Duke is playing great but when looking at their full body of work, losses to USF and Louisville are not good.

I think TCU is pretty clearly the last #2 seed though. They’ve dominated the Big 12 and have OOC wins over fellow 2 seeds Notre Dame and NC State. Their only losses at to South Carolina, OK State (projected 7 seed) and Kansas State (projected 5 seed). LSU has some nice wins but not as many as TCU, and their losses to Alabama and Ole Miss finishing the year push them to the 3 line IMO.

I don't think it's all that clear tbh. I can see the committee going either way between Duke or TCU for #8. It'll come down to which data points they choose to focus on. (And I do think both should be ahead of LSU.)

Duke does have worse losses than TCU, but Duke also played a much tougher nonconference schedule (#9 vs. #75 NC SOS) and even more importantly scheduled challenging true road games, whereas TCU played none. It's unimpressive when a team just hides out at home and the only traveling they do for the first two months of the season is a Caribbean holiday adventure.

Ultimately it's pretty inconsequential which is #8 and which is #9 because either way they should be placed in the same regional. Hopefully they get to settle it on the court in the Sweet 16.

 

[Vowelguy]

Ultimately it's pretty inconsequential which is #8 and which is #9 because either way they should be placed in the same regional.

Prob not.

If ucla is 1 and TCU/Duke is 2, then 3 almost has to be an SEC team.

Unless both 8 and 9 get moved to #2 SCs regional

 

[Plebe]

Prob not.

If ucla is 1 and TCU/Duke is 2, then 3 almost has to be an SEC team.

Unless both 8 and 9 get moved to #2 SCs regional

Yes, good point. With multiple SEC teams likely on the 3 line the whole thing gets messed up.