Bracketology - Week 18 (merged)

[AzzisBraids]

UConn is in a great position to be in either Texas' or USC' region as the highest two seed. They avoid South Carolina and UCLA who are the top 1 seeds which is a great result and once they handle business tomorrow, I like where they are positioned.

UConn has already faced USC and Geno gameplans well against teams that have beat him in the regular season. Also with Aubrey Griffin back - they have a Watkins stopper that can match her size and athleticism.

Texas is extremely limited in their offense and Geno just needs to replicate what SC did today and they will win surely. Really good position for a Final Four.

 

[Puppy Love]

The committee knows how to discern between a good win and a great win. Hence our win over South Carolina carries greater weight than our wins over, say, Louisville or Creighton.

It's also why Notre Dame, with 3 wins over the top 5 teams, is projected higher in the seeding than North Carolina despite their roughly similar Quad 1 W-L records.

My point is more that if the committee still has to subjectively analyze quality wins and losses, the quads need to be tweaked. For example, the Vols are still 14th in the net. The way they’ve played the last two weeks, no one should get any credit for beating them. Because the net is a season long view, it doesn’t tell you anything about how teams are performing today and it still makes the committee just a subjective decision with not great data around it.

 

[Heytherego]

I don’t think SC will be the #1 overall over UCLA especially with UCLA winning head to head

 

[jaydee602]

Charlie Creme predicts the selection committee's #2 seeds:
1st) UCONN
2nd) NC State
3rd) Notre Dame
4th) TCU or LSU

Surprisingly, he has ACC champ Duke locked in as a 3 seed.

 

[bballnut90]

I think UCLA is clear cut #1, South Carolina #2. Texas and USC are closer but I think Texas is the #3. I don’t think they’ll drop from #1 to #4 for a road loss to South Carolina. Both have similar win profiles (maybe slight edge to USC), but USC has a far worse loss in losing to Iowa, where Texas has lost 2 road games to SC and an OT road loss to Notre Dame

 

[visitingcock]

Not a big fan of the quads…

Quad one: home 1-25, neutral 1-35 and away 1-45

It‘s far too large of a grouping to have any real meaning. There’s a vast difference in quality once you get outside the top 10 or so. As of today, 45 is George Mason. Does anyone think they belong in the same sentence as the top teams? It artificially rewards the bigger conferences (read SEC) just for playing their schedule.

You can’t “ read SEC.”

It’s the smallest of the P-4 conferences.

 

[bballnut90]

Charlie Creme predicts the selection committee's #2 seeds:
1st) UCONN
2nd) NC State
3rd) Notre Dame
4th) TCU or LSU

Surprisingly, he has ACC champ Duke locked in as a 3 seed.

I agree with this. Duke is playing great but when looking at their full body of work, losses to USF and Louisville are not good.

I think TCU is pretty clearly the last #2 seed though. They’ve dominated the Big 12 and have OOC wins over fellow 2 seeds Notre Dame and NC State. Their only losses at to South Carolina, OK State (projected 7 seed) and Kansas State (projected 5 seed). LSU has some nice wins but not as many as TCU, and their losses to Alabama and Ole Miss finishing the year push them to the 3 line IMO.

 

[triaddukefan]

I agree with this. Duke is playing great but when looking at their full body of work, losses to USF and Louisville are not good.

I think TCU is pretty clearly the last #2 seed though. They’ve dominated the Big 12 and have OOC wins over fellow 2 seeds Notre Dame and NC State. Their only losses at to South Carolina, OK State (projected 7 seed) and Kansas State (projected 5 seed). LSU has some nice wins but not as many as TCU, and their losses to Alabama and Ole Miss finishing the year push them to the 3 line IMO.

Sign me up for #2 TCU is we are a #3. Frog legs are quite tasty from what I remember.

 

[Puppy Love]

You can’t “ read SEC.”

It’s the smallest of the P-4 conferences.

It also has 9 teams out of the top 25 in the net. It only matters to the extent that the committee actually cares about the wins within the quads. My main point is that the gap between the top teams and everyone else is still too large to make the quads meaningful.

 

[bballnut90]

UConn is in a great position to be in either Texas' or USC' region as the highest two seed. They avoid South Carolina and UCLA who are the top 1 seeds which is a great result and once they handle business tomorrow, I like where they are positioned.

UConn has already faced USC and Geno gameplans well against teams that have beat him in the regular season. Also with Aubrey Griffin back - they have a Watkins stopper that can match her size and athleticism.

Texas is extremely limited in their offense and Geno just needs to replicate what SC did today and they will win surely. Really good position for a Final Four.

I actually think Texas and USC might be the tougher matchups of the 1 seeds for UCONN.

Texas is massive inside and can dominate the glass even if they didn’t today. I don’t think a smaller lineup is likely to be as effective against Texas, and they looked bad this weekend but their defense is stifling. They’re very dangerous if Booker is hitting shots or if Holle/Lee can nail open 3s. They make games ugly and are good at pulling them out.

Similarly, USC has a lot of size inside and Iriafen is a matchup nightmare. Watkins is streaky, but when she’s on, she’s the best player in the country.

I think South Carolina would be optimal considering UCONN beat them by 29 on the road. South Carolina played awful that day and UCONN had their game of the season, but UCONN would have a lot of confidence going into that matchup.

UCLA would be a tough matchup too due to size but if it’s a close game, I think UCONN has capable guards who are more likely to take over the game than UCLA’s will.

 

[bballnut90]

Sign me up for #2 TCU is we are a #3. Frog legs are quite tasty from what I remember.

I think Duke would run TCU out of the gym. They’re so athletic.

 

[Stagnant]

1) UCLA
2) SoCar
3) USC
4) Texas
5) UConn
6) ND
7) NCSt
8) Duke
9) TCU
10) LSU
11) Okla
12) Ky
13) UNC
14) Ole Miss
15) Ohiost
16) Bay
17) Tenn


Spok1: 1 UCLA / 8 Duke / 10 LSU / 16 Bay
Birm4: 4 Tex / 5 UConn / 12 Ky / 13 UNC

Birm2: 2 SoCar / 7 NCSt / 9 TCU / 15 OhSt
Spok3: 3 USC / 6 ND / 11 Okla / 14 OlMs

Kentucky as the 3 seed in our region? Sign me up for that.

 

[Plebe]

I agree with this. Duke is playing great but when looking at their full body of work, losses to USF and Louisville are not good.

I think TCU is pretty clearly the last #2 seed though. They’ve dominated the Big 12 and have OOC wins over fellow 2 seeds Notre Dame and NC State. Their only losses at to South Carolina, OK State (projected 7 seed) and Kansas State (projected 5 seed). LSU has some nice wins but not as many as TCU, and their losses to Alabama and Ole Miss finishing the year push them to the 3 line IMO.

I don't think it's all that clear tbh. I can see the committee going either way between Duke or TCU for #8. It'll come down to which data points they choose to focus on. (And I do think both should be ahead of LSU.)

Duke does have worse losses than TCU, but Duke also played a much tougher nonconference schedule (#9 vs. #75 NC SOS) and even more importantly scheduled challenging true road games, whereas TCU played none. It's unimpressive when a team just hides out at home and the only traveling they do for the first two months of the season is a Caribbean holiday adventure.

Ultimately it's pretty inconsequential which is #8 and which is #9 because either way they should be placed in the same regional. Hopefully they get to settle it on the court in the Sweet 16.

 

[Vowelguy]

Ultimately it's pretty inconsequential which is #8 and which is #9 because either way they should be placed in the same regional.

Prob not.

If ucla is 1 and TCU/Duke is 2, then 3 almost has to be an SEC team.

Unless both 8 and 9 get moved to #2 SCs regional

 

[Plebe]

Prob not.

If ucla is 1 and TCU/Duke is 2, then 3 almost has to be an SEC team.

Unless both 8 and 9 get moved to #2 SCs regional

Yes, good point. With multiple SEC teams likely on the 3 line the whole thing gets messed up.

 

[BRS24]

Last update of week 18 by CC:

South Carolina began the day as the fourth No. 1 seed. Then, after dominating Texas and later watching USC fall to UCLA, the Gamecocks ended Sunday as the No. 1 overall seed, which is where they should be on Selection Sunday. After splitting two regular-season games with Texas and sharing the SEC regular-season crown, South Carolina left no doubt in Greenville, beating the Longhorns by 19 points. A stifling second-half defense helped the Bruins exact some revenge over USC in the Big Ten championship game, putting them as the No. 2 overall team. USC and Texas follow. TCU was the big winner of the day. By adding a Big 12 tournament title to their regular-season championship, the Horned Frogs moved to a No. 2 seed, edging Duke for that final spot on the 2-line.​

​

All the #1 seeds swapped, TCU and Duke swap 2 & 3.

 

[BRS24]

And a fast follow from HerHoopStats:

Difference between #1 seeds here in 1-3 regions.

 

[Phil]

Yes, good point. With multiple SEC teams likely on the 3 line the whole thing gets messed up.

Excellent point. I've hated realignment for multiple reasons and you've added one more. Many fans underestimate the challenges of putting together a bracket. It's far more complicated than simply ranking them all in placing them in an S surve. Amount other things they have some rules about teams from the same conference meeting each other too early. With the large number of teams from both the SEC and Big Ten, this is going to create some headaches. And those headaches have ripple effects. You move one team off the line because they are from the same conference and they meet too soon, but that movement by definition move someone else somewhere else and maybe that creates a problem.

 

[Stagnant]

Notre dame being in a region with either UCLA or USC is fascinating to me. Because frankly, all three of those schools must make it to the final four this year. It is imperative for them.

 

[BRS24]

Notre dame being in a region with either UCLA or USC is fascinating to me. Because frankly, all three of those schools must make it to the final four this year. It is imperative for them.

Interesting. Why do you think that they must make it to the FF?

 

[AzzisBraids]

I actually think Texas and USC might be the tougher matchups of the 1 seeds for UCONN.

Texas is massive inside and can dominate the glass even if they didn’t today. I don’t think a smaller lineup is likely to be as effective against Texas, and they looked bad this weekend but their defense is stifling. They’re very dangerous if Booker is hitting shots or if Holle/Lee can nail open 3s. They make games ugly and are good at pulling them out.

Similarly, USC has a lot of size inside and Iriafen is a matchup nightmare. Watkins is streaky, but when she’s on, she’s the best player in the country.

I think South Carolina would be optimal considering UCONN beat them by 29 on the road. South Carolina played awful that day and UCONN had their game of the season, but UCONN would have a lot of confidence going into that matchup.

UCLA would be a tough matchup too due to size but if it’s a close game, I think UCONN has capable guards who are more likely to take over the game than UCLA’s will.

I disagree - UCLA and South Carolina are worse threats. UConn demolished South Carolina on their home court and that whole team will see red against UConn, hoping for revenge. They were embarassed and said it and I wouldn't want us to see them again until a final.

The front line of Betts, Gardner, Barker and Dugalic are just a bit too tall and versatile in my opinion.

UConn has faced USC before so they have a rubric to build off of and Texas has too many if's in their offense. If Holle and Lee beat you shooting 3's Texas deserves to win but they are 346th in 3 point shooting. The stats say pack the paint and contain Booker and you'll win. UConn has Sarah and Aubrey who can match her size.

 

[Puppy Love]

Life is pretty difficult in the NCAA tournament for anything except for a number one seed, and even for them it isn’t easy. Historically, about half the number ones make it to final four weekend, although there have been some years when all of them have. Since 1994 (when the tournament expanded to 64 teams), a number one seed has won 23 times. A number two seed has won four times and a number three seed has won three times. It’s hard to tell how many of those winners were the overall number one, but I’m guessing that the number is substantial. It really does seem that being a number one seed matters.

 

[Stagnant]

Interesting. Why do you think that they must make it to the FF?

I feel like we have been talking about how Ivey and Close can’t win the big games for three years now. Those talks intensify if they come up short again.

Notre dame. This is their chance. The majority of their team graduates after this season. They will still be good. But I think they will be down a bit next year.

USC. Less pressure on them. But two years in a row with Juju as a number one seed and not able to make a final four? A good recruiting class is coming in. But Iriafen would be gone. So they may have more interior questions next season.