Bracketology - Week 15

[BRS24]

No change to top; 16 teams. UConn back to the 2 seed in the #2 bracket.

Big Ten - 12, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Big East - 2, Atlantic 10 - 2, - Ivy - 2

A bit of an oops as USF is listed 2x in the Next Four Out group.

 

[LETTERL]

Duke moves up...and NC State, with 2 ranked wins in the last 8 days, including beating Duke, stays a 4?

 

[MSGRET]

Duke moves up...and NC State, with 2 ranked wins in the last 8 days, including beating Duke, stays a 4?

It's Charlie, what do you expect?

 

[dabears17]

Duke moves up...and NC State, with 2 ranked wins in the last 8 days, including beating Duke, stays a 4?

The Net rankings have Duke at 8 and NC State at 18. NC State has played 7 Quad 4 teams, while Duke has only played 4.

DI Women's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Women's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

Get NCAA women's college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today/WBCA and NCAA committee.

www.ncaa.com

 

[Stagnant]

Duke moves up...and NC State, with 2 ranked wins in the last 8 days, including beating Duke, stays a 4?

Charlie is just waiting for the first bracket reveal to save him. Probably not putting in a lot of effort just yet.

 

[ConnMotors]

Things will change again by next Monday. On Thursday you have #3 Texas visiting #8 Kentucky and #1 UCLA at #6 USC. Sunday we have #4 South Carolina hosting #7 Connecticut. Later in the afternoon #5 LSU travels to #3 Texas.

 

[Bigboote]

The only effect that publishing these twice a week has on me is that I’m shaking my head twice as often.

I find them interesting (why I keep on reading) in that they may give some insight into what the committee might be thinking. But geez, there is sometimes some weirdness.

 

[triaddukefan]

Duke moves up...and NC State, with 2 ranked wins in the last 8 days, including beating Duke, stays a 4?

Duke has the better overall resume.

The Net rankings have Duke at 8 and NC State at 18. NC State has played 7 Quad 4 teams, while Duke has only played 4.

DI Women's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Women's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

Get NCAA women's college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today/WBCA and NCAA committee.

www.ncaa.com

Duke has 4 quad 1 wins according to that chart

 

[Plebe]

Duke moves up...and NC State, with 2 ranked wins in the last 8 days, including beating Duke, stays a 4?

You always have to look at what happened to other teams in the vicinity as well. Duke was likely already at #9 and then benefited from Kansas State getting blown out by Oklahoma State. NC State likely moved up from a low 4 to a high 4—just because a team doesn't jump a seed line doesn't mean they didn't move up the overall board—but none of the 3 seeds really faltered in the same way K State did.

FWIW I do think NCSt has a better resume than Ohio State. I think there's a more than decent chance NC State is a 3 seed in the reveal on Sunday

 

[bballnut90]

I love this time of year. It's messy, constantly changing and fun to overanalyze. Right now I see the 1 and 2 seedings as:

-A clear top 3 of UCLA/South Carolina/Notre Dame. South Carolina's only tough game left is vs. UCONN, and even with a loss there I think they're safely on the 1 line with their quality of wins. UCLA has a couple of losses to spare, likely Notre Dame too if they were to be at risk of falling off the 1 line.

-A slightly more fluid mix of teams 4-6 (Texas/USC/LSU), but I don't see any of them dropping out of the top 6 spots. All 3 have strong wins. The head to head between LSU/Texas will be telling. Texas beating LSU should solidify them as a #1 seed unless USC beats UCLA multiple times IMO.

-UCONN is very safely locked in at #7. I don't think anyone is putting up much of a fight to supplant their position, but I also don't think the Huskies have a strong case for a #1 seed even if they upset South Carolina this weekend. With a win, I think it potentially bumps them to #6, but top 5 will be difficult.

-After that, the last #2 spot is sort of up for grabs. Going through different contenders:
1. I think NC State is building a good case for a #2 seed, but they have a brutal schedule coming up.
2. I thought Kansas State had a clear path after beating TCU but they lost by 30 to Oklahoma State this week. Time will tell but I'm not seeing them finish it out strong.
3. Ohio State lacks good wins and has a terrible loss to Penn State, I don't think they have a strong case for a 2.
4. TCU's resume might be better than anyone else's on paper, especially with their loss to Oklahoma State not looking as bad. I feel like they're bound to hit some roadblocks though with all of the bad press surrounding Sedona Prince right now though.
5. Duke is the 2 on Charlie's bracket, I'm just not seeing it though? They have a mix of good wins and a lot of losses.
6. UNC could play their way to the 2 line if they beat NC State and Louisville, and knock off Duke again.

I don't think Oklahoma has a shot right now. Tennessee maybe if they win out and upset one of LSU/Texas/South Carolina in the SEC Tournament. I don't think it's likely, but they'll potentially be a 3 or 4 seed one who no one wants to face.

 

[BRS24]

TGIF all y'all bracketology fans! Today's bracketpalooza features updates by ESPN, The Athletic, and HerHoopStats. I've hidden a bunch of rows in CC's picks, as we are now in the 2x per week for him, and yeah. The two "official" committee reveals for top 16 are 12 p.m. ET Sunday, Feb. 16 on ABC and 6:30 p.m. ET Thursday, Feb. 27 on ESPN2.

First, here is CC"s take: Ole Miss in and Kentucky out of the top 16.

Big Ten - 12, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 3, Big East - 2, -

 

[BRS24]

Next, a look at Megan's HerHoopStats.

Big Ten - 12, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Big East - 2, Atlantic 10 - 2, Ivy - 2,

 

[BRS24]

Lastly for today, Schindler's take at The Athletic:

Big Ten - 12, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 8, Big East - 2, Ivy - 2,

 

[Plebe]

Interesting to read the explanation of why USC's win over UCLA last night didn't move the needle on anyone's projected seeding. Again it illustrates how bracketology, unlike the polls, doesn't overreact with recency bias because it considers the entire resume holistically.

“The competition for the No. 1 seeds is down to six teams for four spots. Despite USC's thrilling win over UCLA on Thursday, the order of those top six remains unchanged for now. The Bruins had built enough of a cushion to absorb a loss and stay the No. 1 overall team. And the Trojans, who now have wins over UCLA and UConn, are blocked from the top line by Texas and South Carolina -- which lead the country with 10 Quad 1 wins each -- and Notre Dame, which has victories over USC and Texas and the same number of Quad 1 wins as the Trojans (7). USC would be a No. 1 seed if the Longhorns hadn't beaten the Gamecocks on Sunday. The March 1 rematch between the Bruins and Trojans could be the game that changes the makeup of the top line. LSU, the sixth team vying for a spot on the top line, faces a No. 1 seed elimination game on Sunday against Texas. If LSU loses in Austin, the chase for a top seed is down to five teams.”​

 

[Rowdy831]

UConn must beat SC to have a shot at a 1 seed but is still not a given. Teams like UCLA still will have two games against SC, Texas, LSU and SC all have games against each other and their tournament too. The only team I see with a real clear path to a 1 seed is ND and then it will be the Big 10 champ and the SEC champ with one spot left for the others to fight over.

To me being a 1 isn't as important as who the other top team is in your bracket. I think UConn matches up best with ND so that would be the team I would want to be the 1 in the bracket if it isn't UConn. Texas and UCLA are the two toughest match ups in my opinion based on the length they can put on the floor but the best roster will be UConn regardless of who they play.

 

[azfan]

UConn must beat SC to have a shot at a 1 seed but is still not a given. Teams like UCLA still will have two games against SC, Texas, LSU and SC all have games against each other and their tournament too. The only team I see with a real clear path to a 1 seed is ND and then it will be the Big 10 champ and the SEC champ with one spot left for the others to fight over.

To me being a 1 isn't as important as who the other top team is in your bracket. I think UConn matches up best with ND so that would be the team I would want to be the 1 in the bracket if it isn't UConn. Texas and UCLA are the two toughest match ups in my opinion based on the length they can put on the floor but the best roster will be UConn regardless of who they play.

That ship has sailed. Huskies are firmly slotted at 7th

Tulin's Treasures: SEC’s Best (and UConn) Ready to Shine on First Football-Free Sunday

There probably won’t be any valentines exchanged as UConn visits South Carolina and LSU visits Texas

open.substack.com

 

[triaddukefan]

I love this time of year.

-After that, the last #2 spot is sort of up for grabs. Going through different contenders:
1. I think NC State is building a good case for a #2 seed, but they have a brutal schedule coming up.
2. I thought Kansas State had a clear path after beating TCU but they lost by 30 to Oklahoma State this week. Time will tell but I'm not seeing them finish it out strong.
3. Ohio State lacks good wins and has a terrible loss to Penn State, I don't think they have a strong case for a 2.
4. TCU's resume might be better than anyone else's on paper, especially with their loss to Oklahoma State not looking as bad. I feel like they're bound to hit some roadblocks though with all of the bad press surrounding Sedona Prince right now though.
5. Duke is the 2 on Charlie's bracket, I'm just not seeing it though? They have a mix of good wins and a lot of losses.
6. UNC could play their way to the 2 line if they beat NC State and Louisville, and knock off Duke again.

The metrics seem to love Duke, and who am I to argue with metrics.

 

[Vowelguy]

UConn must beat SC to have a shot at a 1 seed but is still not a given. .

UConn has no shot at a 1 seed

 

[Plebe]

UConn must beat SC to have a shot at a 1 seed but is still not a given. Teams like UCLA still will have two games against SC, Texas, LSU and SC all have games against each other and their tournament too. The only team I see with a real clear path to a 1 seed is ND and then it will be the Big 10 champ and the SEC champ with one spot left for the others to fight over.

None of those teams you mention would drop just for losing to each other. They would have to suffer multiple bad losses to lesser teams to drop below UConn even in the unlikely event UConn were to beat SC.

 

[BRS24]

 

[BRS24]

In the regular format:

 

[triaddukefan]

 

[Vowelguy]

View attachment 107041

You're probably #9 which seems a good thing?

 

[Vowelguy]

BIG surprise was Texas over ND for #3 overall.

 

[Plebe]

BIG surprise was Texas over ND for #3 overall.

I'm surprised but Texas has more Q1 wins and ND has worse losses, so maybe not so surprising.