Bracketology - Week 14

[BRS24]

UConn moves to the #2 region. Ole Miss back in, Maryland out of the top 16.

Big Ten - 12, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Big East - 2, Ivy - 2, Atlantic 10 -2

 

[Bone Dog]

UConn moves to the #2 region.

Does this mean Charlie has implicitly moved UConn to the 7-spot on the S-curve?

 

[Stagnant]

I think seeding is important. If we are the 7 or 8 overall seed. We would be stuck with South Carolina or ucla. And that makes a final four appearance unlikely imo.

 

[Centerstream]

I don't understand why USC is still a 1 seed after losing to an unranked, and possibly a non tournament team, Iowa.
Oh wait, it's Charlie's bracket.

 

[Alydar]

I think seeding is important. If we are the 7 or 8 overall seed. We would be stuck with South Carolina or ucla. And that makes a final four appearance unlikely imo.

Out of SCar, UCLA, USC or NDame I'd rather see UConn face UCLA.

 

[Rowdy831]

UConn moves to the #2 region. Ole Miss back in, Maryland out of the top 16.

View attachment 106766

Big Ten - 12, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Big East - 2, Ivy - 2, Atlantic 10 -2

View attachment 106764

USC? This is not real. Texas as a 5? It all comes down to how UConn plays the two non conference games coming up. They win they are a 1 if they don't they don't deserve to be a 1.

 

[Vowelguy]

I don't understand why USC is still a 1 seed after losing to an unranked, and possibly a non tournament team, Iowa.
Oh wait, it's Charlie's bracket.

It's a quad 1 loss.

Who should jump them for the #1 seed?
The only resume that I can see being possibly better is Texas.

The big thing that USC has is a win over a top-10 NET team (UConn), and on the road. Texas doesnt.

 

[Vowelguy]

Does this mean Charlie has implicitly moved UConn to the 7-spot on the S-curve?

Possible but not necessarily. UConn could be 6th with LSU 7th. But LSU can't be in SC's region, so LSU and UConn get swapped.
Even slightly possible for UConn to have been 5th.

 

[Stagnant]

Texas, LSU, and USC have more losses coming up. It is not a given they will remain ahead of us.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

If USC is still a #1 and TX is a #2 I'd rather see UConn a #3 in that Region 4 than a #2 in Region 2 with SoCar!

 

[BRS24]

Feb 4 update from Megan Gauer at HerHoopStats:

 

[Plebe]

Texas, LSU, and USC have more losses coming up. It is not a given they will remain ahead of us.

They'll each lose games but who will they lose to? They'd have to have some bad losses to offset the fact that their wins are better than ours.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

It's a quad 1 loss.

Who should jump them for the #1 seed?
The only resume that I can see being possibly better is Texas.

The big thing that USC has is a win over a top-10 NET team (UConn), and on the road. Texas doesnt.

Many top twelve [where the FF teams typically reside this time of year] head-to-head matchups still to come in the regular season, and conference tourneys. At this snapshot, Texas would be the 4th Regional #1, UConn is the #2 in the 4th Regional, and LSU the #2 in the 3rd Regional, which puts USCal the #2 in the 2nd Regional with USCarolina ["Will the real USC please stand up?!?" for a spot in the FF]

Go Huskies!!! Thrash the Orange Evil Empire!!!!
[in the "puking Orange all over the place" <== Shea had a great quote for the Knoxville "house"]

 

[Vowelguy]

Many top twelve [where the FF teams typically reside this time of year] head-to-head matchups still to come in the regular season, and conference tourneys. At this snapshot, Texas would be the 4th Regional #1, UConn is the #2 in the 4th Regional, and LSU the #2 in the 3rd Regional, which puts USCal the #2 in the 2nd Regional with USCarolina ["Will the real USC please stand up?!?" for a spot in the FF]

Committee ain’t putting UConn ahead of USC right now.

USC is 5-2 against Quad 1
UConn is 3-2

And USC won AT UConn

Trojans are no lower than 5th currently.

 

[ConnMotors]

So we drop down to a #3 Seed. It worked out last year.

 

[Stagnant]

Shocked that Creme still has us as a 2 seed. I looked at the NET and we are still #2 overall in NET. Which is confusing.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

Not even sure about that? We will lose at South Carolina. Assuming we run the tables in the BigEast our best win will be UNC.

Might be a 4 seed or worse not among the top 16.

 

[packwrap]

We could slip to a #3 seed, but just too much carnage among teams in current 8-16 group to knock us out of there.

Nobody among Duke, UNC, KSU, TCU, NC St, tOSU, KY, OK, MD and even TN is really stepping up to seize an opportunity. KSU and KY leaders right now.

Many of these teams still have 3-5 more losses coming as they run into tough part of schedule, and all will take presumably a conf tournament loss.

UConn at worst ends 30-4 going into ncaa, with NET rating probably still in top 7.

 

[bballnut90]

We could slip to a #3 seed, but just too much carnage among teams in current 8-16 group to knock us out of there.

Nobody among Duke, UNC, KSU, TCU, NC St, tOSU, KY, OK, MD and even TN is really stepping up to seize an opportunity. KSU and KY leaders right now.

Many of these teams still have 3-5 more losses coming as they run into tough part of schedule, and all will take presumably a conf tournament loss.

UConn at worst ends 30-4 going into ncaa, with NET rating probably still in top 7.

This ^^

The way I see it right now is:

1s: UCLA/Notre Dame/South Carolina as locks unless something bizarre happens
Could be #1 seed or a high #2: Texas, USC, LSU

Then it's sort of the wild west where teams either don't have quality wins but no egregious losses (ex. UCONN), or they have some quality wins but also bad losses (ex. Ohio State, TCU, Duke, Kentucky, etc).

Kansas State/Kentucky appear to have the inside track to getting 2 seeds if they win the games they're supposed to. I think the bigger issue for UCONN though is this likely takes them out of the running for the top 2 #2 seeds on the S-curve, meaning that they're likely going to be placed in UCLA or South Carolina's regional. Both would be awful matchups for UCONN, IMO. If I'm Geno I'd much rather be a 3 or even a 4 seed in a bracket with the likes of USC/LSU than have to face Lauren Betts or SC's athletic lineup prior to the Final Four.

 

[ConnMotors]

Many changes still to be made in the Top-16. Here are some upcoming important games involving the top tier teams.

UCLA: at Southern California on 2/13; vs. Michigan State on 2/16 and vs. Southern California on 3/1
South Carolina: at Texas on 2-9; vs. UConn on 2/16 and vs. Kentucky on 3/2
Notre Dame: vs. California on 2/9; vs. Duke on 2/13; at North Carolina State on 2/23; vs. Florida State on 2/27 and vs. Louisville on 3-2
Texas: vs. South Carolina on 2/9; at Kentucky on 2/13 and vs. Louisiana State on 2/16
Southern California: vs. Ohio State on 2/8; vs. UCLA on 2/13; vs. Michigan State on 2/19 and at UCLA on 3/2
UConn: at South Carolina on 2/16
Louisiana State: at Texas on 2/16 and at Kentucky on 2/23
Ohio State: at Southern California on 2/8 and vs. Michigan State on 2/26
Kansas State: at Oklahoma State on 2/8; at West Virginia on 2/17 and vs. Baylor on 2/24
Texas Christian: vs. West Virginia on 2/23 and at Baylor on 3/2
Kentucky: vs. Texas on 2/13; vs. Louisiana State on 2/23 and at South Carolina on 3/2
North Carolina State: at Florida State on 2/9; at North Carolina on 2/16; at Georgia Tech on 2/20 and vs. Notre Dame on 2/23
Duke: at Notre Dame on 2/17; at North Carolina on 2/27 and at Florida State on 3/2
Michigan State: at UCLA on 2/16; at Southern California on 2/19 and vs. Ohio State on 2/26
North Carolina: vs. North Carolina State on 2/16 and at Duke on 2/27
Tennessee: at Louisiana State on 2/9; vs. Alabama on 2/20 and at Kentucky on 2/27

 

[Vowelguy]

This ^^

The way I see it right now is:

1s: UCLA/Notre Dame/South Carolina as locks unless something bizarre happens
Could be #1 seed or a high #2: Texas, USC, LSU

Then it's sort of the wild west where teams either don't have quality wins but no egregious losses (ex. UCONN), or they have some quality wins but also bad losses (ex. Ohio State, TCU, Duke, Kentucky, etc).

Kansas State/Kentucky appear to have the inside track to getting 2 seeds if they win the games they're supposed to. I think the bigger issue for UCONN though is this likely takes them out of the running for the top 2 #2 seeds on the S-curve, meaning that they're likely going to be placed in UCLA or South Carolina's regional. Both would be awful matchups for UCONN, IMO. If I'm Geno I'd much rather be a 3 or even a 4 seed in a bracket with the likes of USC/LSU than have to face Lauren Betts or SC's athletic lineup prior to the Final Four.

I think B12 champ and ACC runnerup have best shot at the final 2 seeds

 

[ConnMotors]

We all have an opinion so here is mine on how things will fall. UCLA will stay at the Top if they do not drop a game of course. However, if they do loose one of their possible three games against Southern California then they will drop to the second #1 seed. Even with their head to head win over South Carolina. If Dawn and her South Carolina team wins the SEC Conference as well as their Tournament they should move up a spot. I don't see Notre Dame getting beat by anyone if the ACC the rest of the way. As everyone says this is where things get interesting. USC beats UCLA once but looses twice to them. Texas looses to So. Carolina twice. LSU gets beat by Dawn and her team in the SEC T. So a bunch of teams will have four losses but only one will end up with two. And, that is Kim's team.

1) South Carolina --- UCLA --- Notre Dame --- LSU
2) Southern Cal --- Texas --- Kansas State --- UConn
3) TCU --- NC State --- Ohio State --- Duke
4) North Carolina --- Kentucky --- Tennessee --- Michigan State

 

[Bone Dog]

Charlie's latest bracket has UConn as the 2 seed in UCLA's region. In effect, he's thinking of UConn as #8 on the S-curve. This may be an optimistic position.

 

[BRS24]

Hey gang - a bit of wandering today, so here's the updated ESPN brackets. UConn now the 2 seed in #1 bracket. Tenn back in and Ole Miss out of the top 16.

Big Ten - 12, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Big East - 2, Ivy - 2, Atlantic 10 - 2

 

[BRS24]

And a fast follow to Schindler's bracket from The Athletic"