Bracketology March 5th

[Lorcan]

I think A&M falls to a number 2 seed with that loss if SCar beats UGA today.

Who would be the fourth #1? NC State? Maryland? Louisville?
I’m fine if Maryland gets a 1 seed, but realize it’s more likely for NC State to get it at this juncture.

 

[JellyBean]

I always love the back and forth on what team got in & what team got left out as well as, where a team got seeded. Just be happy that you got in the tournament and play! If you got left out, it sucks but it happens. Move on. Best of luck next season.

 

[visitingcock]

Who would be the fourth #1? NC State? Maryland? Louisville?
I’m fine if Maryland gets a 1 seed, but realize it’s more likely for NC State to get it at this juncture.

Much to be determined this afternoon with 3 conference championship games including Stanford vs UCLA and Louisville v NCState

I’ll respond fully tonight but I think the top four will be
1 UConn
2 Stanford for sure if they beat UCLA. Maybe anyway.
3 Winner of Louisville vs NC State. Loser will be a 2 seed.
4. SCar if they beat UGA. Maryland if SCar stumbles and Maryland wins out. Baylor if Scar and Maryland both Stumble and Baylor wins out.

2 seeds (Probable IF SCar beats UGA)
Maryland
Baylor
Loser of Louisville vs NCState
UCLA if they beat Stanford. TX A&M if UCLA loses.

Number 8 is the most significant choice between UCLA and TxA&M. One of those two very good teams will fall to a 3 seed

 

[Vowelguy]

I think A&M falls to a number 2 seed with that loss if SCar beats UGA today.

Only if NCSt wins as well, and even then not guaranteed. No one else has enough to jump them.

 

[Vowelguy]

3 Winner of Louisville vs NC State. Loser will be a 2 seed.

Louisville was ranked 9th in the committee rankings a week ago. Beating Syracuse & NC St is not going to move them to a 1 seed.

 

[visitingcock]

Only if NCSt wins as well, and even then not guaranteed. No one else has enough to jump them.

Political consideration: there will not be two teams from one conference in the top 4 at the end of THIS year. If Scar beats UGA, they will (probably) be in. Somebody will jump A&M. NC state if they win. If not, it will be Baylor or Maryland if they win out ( still a tournament for both of them to play)

 

[Vowelguy]

Political consideration: there will not be two teams from one conference in the top 4 at the end of THIS year. If Scar beats UGA, they will (probably) be in. Somebody will jump A&M. NC state if they win. If not, it will be Baylor or Maryland if they win out ( still a tournament for both of them to play)

SEC has shown itself to be strongest conference this year, so two #1s not unreasonable.
That said, putting TAMU as #5, would avoid an SEC regional semi since TN is probably #13.

 

[bballnut90]

How in the world is DePaul in according to Charlie and Ole Miss is out?

Net rating: Ole Miss 42, DePaul 71

Best wins:
Ole Miss: Arkansas (#19) and 2x Kentucky (#20)
DePaul: Kentucky (#20), Marquette (#31)

Worst Losses:
Ole Miss: Florida (#63), LSU 2x (#62)
DePaul: Butler (#275), Villanova (#67), Creighton (#98)

 

[nwhoopfan]

How in the world is DePaul in according to Charlie and Ole Miss is out?

Net rating: Ole Miss 42, DePaul 71

Best wins:
Ole Miss: Arkansas (#19) and 2x Kentucky (#20)
DePaul: Kentucky (#20), Marquette (#31)

Worst Losses:
Ole Miss: Florida (#63), LSU 2x (#62)
DePaul: Butler (#275), Villanova (#67), Creighton (#98)

NET is a flawed tool, but if they just ignore it anyway then who cares?

 

[bballnut90]

NET is a flawed tool, but if they just ignore it anyway then who cares?

No tool is perfect (Massey/RPI) but I dont see any reason why DePaul deserves to be in the tournament over some other bubble teams.

 

[nwhoopfan]

No tool is perfect (Massey/RPI) but I dont see any reason why DePaul deserves to be in the tournament over some other bubble teams.

Yeah, agreed.

 

[Vowelguy]

How in the world is DePaul in according to Charlie and Ole Miss is out?

Net rating: Ole Miss 42, DePaul 71

Best wins:
Ole Miss: Arkansas (#19) and 2x Kentucky (#20)
DePaul: Kentucky (#20), Marquette (#31)

Worst Losses:
Ole Miss: Florida (#63), LSU 2x (#62)
DePaul: Butler (#275), Villanova (#67), Creighton (#98)

The thing that likely hurts Ole Miss is 4-11 against Quad 1 & 2.
DePaul is 5-6, though it also has a quad 3 & quad 4 loss.

 

[bballnut90]

The thing that likely hurts Ole Miss is 4-11 against Quad 1 & 2.
DePaul is 5-6, though it also has a quad 3 & quad 4 loss.

I guess that makes sense if they're focusing on quad wins, but I just find it flawed how spread out the quadrants are, especially for road wins during a season held without fans. There's no way someone can convince me that beating Villanova on the road should be equated to beating Arkansas. Just look at how UCONN performed vs both teams for any indication.

 

[CompSci87]

NET is a flawed tool, but if they just ignore it anyway then who cares?

Hopefully this is just a Charlie mistake. Obviously he isn't the committee.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

SEC has shown itself to be strongest conference this year, so two #1s not unreasonable.
That said, putting TAMU as #5, would avoid an SEC regional semi since TN is probably #13.

I think this year is probably the strongest the SEC has been since UT and LSU were top rated.

 

[sivad40]

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75.
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135.
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240.
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

The differences in Quadrants in the home and away rankings is what throws the Net off. According to the Net, there's no difference between beating a top 1-25 team on the road than beating a top 50-75 on the road.

 

[bballnut90]

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75.
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135.
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240.
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

The differences in Quadrants in the home and away rankings is what throws the Net off. According to the Net, there's no difference between beating a top 1-25 team on the road than beating a top 50-75 on the road.

This is where it is incredibly flawed for the women's side. If committee sticks to this long term, it will incentivize teams to schedule crap road games and avoid top competition since a win vs. a top 5 team is formulaically viewed the same as a road win vs. a non tournament team. Casting up to 75 teams in Q1 and 105 in Q2 is insane to me considering how much variation there is among team quality in those quadrants. Context is extremely important.

 

[willtalk]

SEC has shown itself to be strongest conference this year, so two #1s not unreasonable.
That said, putting TAMU as #5, would avoid an SEC regional semi since TN is probably #13.

We will not know how strong any conference is until they face of in the NCAA tourn. No one has played enough out of conference games this season to get any sort of real measure. Basically all teams games have been against other conference teams. So teams were mostly judged based on untested preseason rankings. If the SEC second tier teams did wel against the top tier it could mean two things. The second teir is better than expected or the top tiers not as good as they were promoted as. In the case of the SEC they are assuming it is the former, but it could just as well be the latter.

 

[LETTERL]

Charlie Creme says Stanford now the #1 seed overall, with UCONN, Texas A&M and South Carolina the other #1s.

This man needs to pay attention to what he's doing. The other day, he had South Dakota State listed twice and Oregon completely missing from the bracket. In his March 8th version, he has Louisville listed as the automatic qualifier from the ACC...and Texas A&M as the automatic qualifier from the SEC.

If you're going to put this kind of stuff out there, attention to detail is important or people won't take you seriously.

Bracketology -- March 8th Edition

 

[visitingcock]

Charlie Creme says Stanford now the #1 seed overall, with UCONN, Texas A&M and South Carolina the other #1s.

This man needs to pay attention to what he's doing. The other day, he had South Dakota State listed twice and Oregon completely missing from the bracket. In his March 8th version, he has Louisville listed as the automatic qualifier from the ACC...and Texas A&M as the automatic qualifier from the SEC.

If you're going to put this kind of stuff out there, attention to detail is important or people won't take you seriously.

Bracketology -- March 8th Edition

Question about automatic qualifiers. Are the AQ’ the regular season champs or the conference tournament champs or does it vary according to the conference?

the ACC traditionally has awarded the title to the tournament champs. The SEC has traditionally awarded the title to the regular season champs.

so which does the NCAA choose as the AQ?

 

[LETTERL]

Question about automatic qualifiers. Are the AQ’ the regular season champs or the conference tournament champs or does it vary according to the conference?

the ACC traditionally has awarded the title to the tournament champs. The SEC has traditionally awarded the title to the regular season champs.

so which does the NCAA choose as the AQ?

At least for the ACC, it is the tournament champion who is deemed the automatic qualifier.

 

[visitingcock]

At least for the ACC, it is the tournament champion who is deemed the automatic qualifier.

Brief research tells me the same is true for all conferences. Thus, SCar is the AQ for the SEC and A&M is an at large

 

[bballnut90]

Charlie Creme says Stanford now the #1 seed overall, with UCONN, Texas A&M and South Carolina the other #1s.

This man needs to pay attention to what he's doing. The other day, he had South Dakota State listed twice and Oregon completely missing from the bracket. In his March 8th version, he has Louisville listed as the automatic qualifier from the ACC...and Texas A&M as the automatic qualifier from the SEC.

If you're going to put this kind of stuff out there, attention to detail is important or people won't take you seriously.

Bracketology -- March 8th Edition

Id give him benefit of the doubt...he's working hard to constantly update the bracket daily and assess a bevy of games and resumes. It probably isn't his full time job and it's doubtful he has anyone helping him to audit his brackets. It sure seems like a thankless job based on how fans react to it, but at the end of the day it's far better to have someone provide some insight and understanding of how the committee works compared to not having any content at all.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Brief research tells me the same is true for all conferences. Thus, SCar is the AQ for the SEC and A&M is an at large

The ACC champion is determined by the tournament.

The SEC champion is determined by the regular season.

That may vary from league to league.

I think you are correct that all conferences make the tournament winner their automatic qualifier.

Makes the most sense as it gives leagues the best chance to get more teams into the dance. That's the nicest thing about the NCAA tournament. Theoretically anyone can play their way in and win it.

Not the best way of rewarding the best season or team sometimes, but the expanded field has taken away most of the egregious omissions.

 

[TheFarmFan]

I'll say this: the one seeds not named Stanford better pray Creme is wrong that Oregon State is a 8/9 seed. I'd be less than thrilled to face them in the second round given how they've played their way into the postseason, and Rueck has a history of coaching his Davids to take down Goliath in March.