Bracketology - Jan 21 edition | The Boneyard

Bracketology - Jan 21 edition

BRS24

BRS24

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NCSU back in the top 16, Tennessee out. KSU and OSU swap 2 and 3 seeds, and a few other region moves.
1737473692050.jpeg


Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Big East - 2, Ivy - 2

1737474041653.jpeg
 
Bubble battle with perennial contenders Stanford, Iowa, Iowa St, new VaTech and Washington very compelling this year.

Will go right to end of conf tourneys.
 
MSGRET said:
I believe that no team that has a losing conference record should get an invite, unless they win the conference tournament.
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Even if, the sweet16 will be 15 P4 & UCONN
 
MSGRET said:
I believe that no team that has a losing conference record should get an invite, unless they win the conference tournament.
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I agree with the sentiment but guestion how it would wrk out if we end up if we have two P-5
superconferences and two weak ones in one year.
 
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visitingcock said:
I agree with the sentiment but guestion how it would wrk out if we end up if we have two P-5
superconferences and two weak ones in one year.
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The last super-conference was the Big East in 2013. Three conference teams made the FF.
Simply getting 9 teams into the tournament is just evidence of the lack of depth in D1 WCBB, not of "superness" of any conference.
 
Alydar said:
The last super-conference was the Big East in 2013. Three conference teams made the FF.
Simply getting 9 teams into the tournament is just evidence of the lack of depth in D1 WCBB, not of "superness" of any conference.
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So, if two conferences each send three teams to the elite 8, they would not be super conferences?

Wanna make sure our nomenclature matches.;)
 
BRS24 said:
NCSU back in the top 16, Tennessee out. KSU and OSU swap 2 and 3 seeds, and a few other region moves.


Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Big East - 2, Ivy - 2
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P4: 39 (57%)
other 27 conferences: 29
 
BRS24 said:
NCSU back in the top 16, Tennessee out. KSU and OSU swap 2 and 3 seeds, and a few other region moves.
View attachment 106377
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This weeks bracket highlights a problem with the big conferences. According to the procedures, both OhioSt and Kentucky should be in ND's bracket since they are the 4th team from their conference and the other 3 brackets already have a team from their conference.

1 option would be to redo the 2-line and swap Tex/LSU with UConn. Then OhioSt would be 3 in ND's bracket (facing Tex/LSU), with Kentucky as the 3 opposite UConn.

I'm guessing the committee doesn't go back to previous lines once they are set, so that leaves Kentucky or OhioSt violating one of the principles. Given the rest of the bracket, makes most sense for it to be OhioSt.
 
Vowelguy said:
This weeks bracket highlights a problem with the big conferences. According to the procedures, both OhioSt and Kentucky should be in ND's bracket since they are the 4th team from their conference and the other 3 brackets already have a team from their conference.

1 option would be to redo the 2-line and swap Tex/LSU with UConn. Then OhioSt would be 3 in ND's bracket (facing Tex/LSU), with Kentucky as the 3 opposite UConn.

I'm guessing the committee doesn't go back to previous lines once they are set, so that leaves Kentucky or OhioSt violating one of the principles. Given the rest of the bracket, makes most sense for it to be OhioSt.
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Is this bracketology actually done with advise from the "committee" or is it just Charlie Creme's delusional bi weekly bait for clicks?
 
DrummerDee said:
Is this bracketology actually done with advise from the "committee" or is it just Charlie Creme's delusional bi weekly bait for clicks?
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Thank you for your interest in the Women’s basketball board.
 
.-.
DrummerDee said:
Is this bracketology actually done with advise from the "committee" or is it just Charlie Creme's delusional bi weekly bait for clicks?
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It's Creme's bi-weekly clickbait to seed the tournament based on committee criteria. Although he does not have any impact on committee, they have let him and other journalists observe the process. Not his opinion, but trying to predict the actual bracket.

Where committee ends up not matching him at season end, he will delve into what happened and call out ncaa for inconsistency, or deviation from criteria. He is better than 90% accurate, but it's not rocket science, if it's your job and you follow closely.

You can choose to just ignore Charlie, but he makes for good convo. All coverage of WBB is welcome.
 
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packwrap said:
You can choose to just ignore Charlie, but he makes for good comvo. All coverage of WBB is welcome.
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Good point. It may be ‘clickbait’ but it doesn’t only serve Charlie’s interest, or ESPN’s. It probably helps keep interest in WCBB high too.
 
Here's an update to The Athletic and HerHoopStats brackets. I've removed them from the ESPN one for now.

1737558985870.jpeg
 
Vowelguy said:
This weeks bracket highlights a problem with the big conferences. According to the procedures, both OhioSt and Kentucky should be in ND's bracket since they are the 4th team from their conference and the other 3 brackets already have a team from their conference.

1 option would be to redo the 2-line and swap Tex/LSU with UConn. Then OhioSt would be 3 in ND's bracket (facing Tex/LSU), with Kentucky as the 3 opposite UConn.

I'm guessing the committee doesn't go back to previous lines once they are set, so that leaves Kentucky or OhioSt violating one of the principles. Given the rest of the bracket, makes most sense for it to be OhioSt.
Expand ...
I believe the committee would more likely "redo" the 2-line if necessary to avoiding violating the "top 4" principle.

Not clear to me why Creme seems not very attentive this year to this principle.
 
LSU and Kansas State will struggle to hold on to a 2 seed. UConn will be a 1 if they win against South Carolina and could drop as low as a 3 with a convincing loss. The Big East is not helping UConn and if Creighton is bad too in their matchup too much will depend on the SC game. UCLA and USC both have each other twice so that could make room for ND or UConn to move up too.

I would say though that ND is probably not a bad matchup if UConn has all their players. One of the few teams at the top that play a small lineup but number 12 will only come if Ice or Morgan can play big against the teams with length.
 
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Rowdy831 said:
LSU and Kansas State will struggle to hold on to a 2 seed. UConn will be a 1 if they win against South Carolina and could drop as low as a 3 with a convincing loss.
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How many losses do you think LSU will end up with? Friday v SC obviously huge game and good measuring stick.

Big12 quite funny. Looked like 2 team battle with TCU and KSU. Now TCU lost and KSU without Lee. No #1 seed for Big12 for sure now, but #2 still possible if someone wins out from here.

2 loss UConn most likely still a #2. I think we will compete real well with SC.
 
Rowdy831 said:
LSU and Kansas State will struggle to hold on to a 2 seed. UConn will be a 1 if they win against South Carolina and could drop as low as a 3 with a convincing loss. The Big East is not helping UConn and if Creighton is bad too in their matchup too much will depend on the SC game. UCLA and USC both have each other twice so that could make room for ND or UConn to move up too.
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IMO neither UCLA nor USC will drop for losing only to each other because those aren't bad losses. They'd need to lose to lesser teams for it to really hurt their seeding.

ND is already a probable 1 seed.
 
Plebe said:
I believe the committee would more likely "redo" the 2-line if necessary to avoiding violating the "top 4" principle.

Not clear to me why Creme seems not very attentive this year to this principle.
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With all the new teams in the P4 now, the Committee may not use that "principle" this year.

You're looking at ACC (18), Big12 (16), B1G (18) and SEC (16) That's 68 teams in P4. All Top 25 teams (except UCONN) are from the P4.
 
meyers7 said:
With all the new teams in the P4 now, the Committee may not use that "principle" this year.

You're looking at ACC (18), Big12 (16), B1G (18) and SEC (16) That's 68 teams in P4. All Top 25 teams (except UCONN) are from the P4.
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Dem's the rules. If they want to change it, they would need to revise the seeding Procedures and Principles document.
 
meyers7 said:
With all the new teams in the P4 now, the Committee may not use that "principle" this year.

You're looking at ACC (18), Big12 (16), B1G (18) and SEC (16) That's 68 teams in P4. All Top 25 teams (except UCONN) are from the P4.
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It's not that drastically different than how it's been for the last 10 or so years. This principle only concerns the top 16 teams (top 4 seed lines), and aside from UConn, the other 15 teams in the top 16 have almost always been p5 teams (Gonzaga last year and Villanova two years ago are the exceptions I'm aware of).

So in effect it means those 15 "other" top 16 are now distributed across 4 conferences instead of 5. Yes it might constrain the committee's options and there may be scenarios where they have to pick which of their principles to violate.
 
.-.
Plebe said:
It's not that drastically different than how it's been for the last 10 or so years. This principle only concerns the top 16 teams (top 4 seed lines), and aside from UConn, the other 15 teams in the top 16 have almost always been p5 teams (Gonzaga last year and Villanova two years ago are the exceptions I'm aware of).

So in effect it means those 15 "other" top 16 are now distributed across 4 conferences instead of 5. Yes it might constrain the committee's options and there may be scenarios where they have to pick which of their principles to violate.
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Yeah, that's my point.
 
Today's update from CC. Alabama in the top 16, NCSU drops out. A few other shifts.

1737730071278.jpeg


Still the same - Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Big East - 2, Ivy - 2

Some ins/outs/shifts in the Bubble groups:
1737730288737.jpeg
 
BRS24 said:
Today's update from CC. Alabama in the top 16, NCSU drops out. A few other shifts.



Still the same - Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Big East - 2, Ivy - 2

Some ins/outs/shifts in the Bubble groups:
View attachment 106459
Expand ...

Stunning that Stanford and BC are in the same category.
 
visitingcock said:
I agree with the sentiment but guestion how it would wrk out if we end up if we have two P-5
superconferences and two weak ones in one year.
Expand ...
I think it would help the NCAA because they would be forced to open it up to non P-4 conferences. Many teams play a weak non conference schedule to build up their records, then they lose more than win in their conference, but still get invited. If your conference record counts when you are winning shouldn't also be a hindrance when you are losing?
 
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BRS24 said:
Update from Schindler at The Athletic, putting UConn as a 2nd seed in region 2, an outlier. Thinking that KSU will get dropped from a 2 seed in ESPN bracket.
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They're certainly likely to drop after losing to Colorado just now.
 
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