Bracketology Dec. 12th.

[Bronxjeff]

So UConn and SC, after both had monster regular seasons, were upset before the Final Four...and that proves he does not know anything, because is not Nostradamus?

As an aside, before the tournament, here were the predictions:

Final Four
Creme: UConn, Louisville, South Carolina, Notre Dame
Hays: UConn, Oregon State, South Carolina, Maryland
Voepel: UConn, Baylor, South Carolina, Notre Dame

All three had SC. Two had ND.
And all had UConn winning

I think you meant so ND and SC were upset... no?

 

[Plebe]

Strangely enough, I think you're taking the more optimistic approach for Tennessee while I'm taking the pessimistic one. I think Tennessee can beat some ranked teams (ex. Florida/Kentucky/even Mississippi State at home), but they'll also likely lose to some downright bad teams, especially on the road. At this point, I thinking Tennessee will likely find a way to sneak in, but it wouldn't shock me if they miss it either. Never thought I'd see the day where this would be a legitimate concern.

FWIW, I would still be shocked if Tennessee doesn't get enough quality wins to make the tournament. Their play yesterday, from the middle of the 2nd quarter on, showed that they are indeed capable of playing at a high-ish level. They cleaned up the turnovers and, for the most part, took good shots. History has shown that a team vying for an at-large bid can sustain some bad losses as long as they have some good wins to go with them. I actually like Tennessee's chances in its upcoming home game vs. Stanford.

 

[Vowelguy]

Even though I wouldn't mind being a 2 seed I think we will eventually be a 1 seed. My only concern is if the committee ships us across the US to Stockton instead of Lexington.

SC has several obstacles that could keep them out of Lexington.
1) ND. SC would need to be ranked higher than the Irish by the committee.
2) Kentucky. Since KY is the host, they get placed in the Lexington regional. If the Cats are a #1-4 seed then SC *cannot* be sent to Lexington, unless the SEC has 5 or more teams seeded #1-4 (unlikely).

 

[ThisJustIn]

This guy doesn't know about picking the brackets. Whats his reason that his final 4 last year had SC and ND and they both didn't make it. I wouldn't put much stock in anything he does as he's clueless.

While I appreciate your thoughtful discussion of the matter, might I suggest that you study the difference between "Brackets" (dictated by a series of rules you could read up on if you so choose) and "Predictions" (dictated by guts, eyes and plain dumb luck).

I shan't put any stock in your posts until you prove you're not clueless - where's your bracketology and your reasoning behind it?

 

[UcMiami]

I think it's unlikely that Tenn misses the tourney. If you look at their schedule, it's likely the end the year 19-8 or 18-9. Either of those records would be good enough to get "Tennessee" into the tourney. It would not be enough to get most other teams in, but i would not be surprised to see Tenn "spring" an upset on Florida or Kentucky.

Actually if you look at their schedule I could see the record being closer to 15-12. Don't sleep on a bunch of those SEC middle ranked teams taking a quarter century revenge on TN - Ol Miss did it last year didn't they. I think TN is capable of losing to anybody on a given day, and their home court is no longer that intimidating.

I think TX being left out is less likely than TN missing.

 

[triaddukefan]

Who would have predicted Duke in the bracket and Tenn not. Texas should be in there.

I was convinced that Duke was a NCAA team all along.... I laughed when they weren't included in Creme's initial bracket. I wasn't convinced that TENN deserved their preseason ranking...... their only shocking loss to me at this point is the one to Penn State

 

[Vowelguy]

I think it's unlikely that Tenn misses the tourney. If you look at their schedule, it's likely the end the year 19-8 or 18-9. Either of those records would be good enough to get "Tennessee" into the tourney. It would not be enough to get most other teams in.

Actually I think most P5 teams with 18 or 19 wins and a decent schedule would make the tourney.

Examples:
2016 - Auburn (19-12), Tenn (19-13)
2015 - Iowa St (18-12), LSU (17-13), Pitt (19-11), Arkansas (17-13), Miami (19-12)
2014 - [not easy to look up]
2013 - Kansas (18-13) , St Johns (18-12), WV (17-13)

 

[Plebe]

Actually I think most P5 teams with 18 or 19 wins and a decent schedule would make the tourney.

Examples:
2016 - Auburn (19-12), Tenn (19-13)
2015 - Iowa St (18-12), LSU (17-13), Pitt (19-11), Arkansas (17-13), Miami (19-12)
2014 - [not easy to look up]
2013 - Kansas (18-13) , St Johns (18-12), WV (17-13)

In 2014:
Oklahoma (18-14) was a #10 seed (lost by 4 to #7 DePaul)
Vanderbilt (18-12) was a #8 seed (lost by 8 to #9 Arizona State)
LSU (19-12) was a #7 seed (advanced to Sweet 16)
Florida (19-12) was a #10 seed (advanced to 2nd round)

 

[msf22b]

FWIW, I would still be shocked if Tennessee doesn't get enough quality wins to make the tournament. Their play yesterday, from the middle of the 2nd quarter on, showed that they are indeed capable of playing at a high-ish level. They cleaned up the turnovers and, for the most part, took good shots. History has shown that a team vying for an at-large bid can sustain some bad losses as long as they have some good wins to go with them. I actually like Tennessee's chances in its upcoming home game vs. Stanford.

I don't disagree with the essence of the post...
But the nature of the coaching dilemma
and the semi-dysfunction of the scholar-athletes (a-hem)
makes bad losses just as likely as good wins.

I think Stanford makes quick work of them.
Remember, they already beat Texas...and have one (semi) bad loss to Gonzaga






r

 

[eebmg]

Weirdest thing to do a bracketology so early.

 

[Vowelguy]

I don't disagree with the essence of the post...
But the nature of the coaching dilemma
and the semi-dysfunction of the scholar-athletes (a-hem)
makes bad losses just as likely as good wins.

I think Stanford makes quick work of them.
Remember, they already beat Texas...and have one (semi) bad loss to Gonzaga
r

Stanford has a spotty record when they travel cross country. I doubt a blowout.

 

[easttexastrash]

So UConn and SC, after both had monster regular seasons, were upset before the Final Four...and that proves he does not know anything, because is not Nostradamus?

As an aside, before the tournament, here were the predictions:

Final Four
Creme: UConn, Louisville, South Carolina, Notre Dame
Hays: UConn, Oregon State, South Carolina, Maryland
Voepel: UConn, Baylor, South Carolina, Notre Dame

All three had SC. Two had ND.
And all had UConn winning

Creme has UCONN and Louisville making it to the Final Four, yet he has them in the same region. Maybe he should move Louisville to Baylor's region if he wants his prediction to come true.

Last year Baylor was a match-up nightmare for FSU, and that was when they had Bulgak in the middle. I will take that match-up every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

There is no way that Texas doesn't make the tournament. Their early record is ugly but that will change pretty quickly.

Not so sure about Tennessee. The game against Baylor made it seem as if they have no heart and are willing to compete hard for 40 minutes, which may result in quite a few more losses.

I'm still going with the big four for the Final Four: UCONN, SC, ND and Baylor.

 

[UcMiami]

Actually I think most P5 teams with 18 or 19 wins and a decent schedule would make the tourney.

Examples:
2016 - Auburn (19-12), Tenn (19-13)
2015 - Iowa St (18-12), LSU (17-13), Pitt (19-11), Arkansas (17-13), Miami (19-12)
2014 - [not easy to look up]
2013 - Kansas (18-13) , St Johns (18-12), WV (17-13)

You can't go just on record - the actual identity of the wins is most important, while the identity of losses also plays a role. The timing is also important - much easier getting an invite with a mediocre record if you advanced in you conference tournament, much harder if you lost 4 of the last 6 games you played.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Creme has UCONN and Louisville making it to the Final Four, yet he has them in the same region. Maybe he should move Louisville to Baylor's region if he wants his prediction to come true.

I presented predictions from LAST year'a tournament, in response to a comment. I think you misinterpreted my comments as pertaining to this year.

 

[Vowelguy]

You can't go just on record - the actual identity of the wins is most important, while the identity of losses also plays a role.

Well, duh, of course. But I was responding to a particular post. The OP said that 18 or 19 wins wouldn't normally get you in. I showed that many such P5 teams have made it. And specifically said "if you have a decent schedule."

 

[easttexastrash]

I presented predictions from LAST year'a tournament, in response to a comment. I think you misinterpreted my comments as pertaining to this year.

Indeed I did. Thanks for clarifying.