Bracketology 2/22

[allday2345]

Still a 9 seed playing Wisconsin...Buddy Hield matchup second round?!

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

[huskiesnyc]

So Providence moves up a line in a week where they lost their only game?

 

[Hi-Low]

So Providence moves up a line in a week where they lost their only game?

Actually I see that as a positive for us...overall field is pretty weak this year. Barring a bad loss we should be solidly in and maybe a little room to move up with a nice AAC tourney run.

 

[storrs15]

Actually I see that as a positive for us...overall field is pretty weak this year. Barring a bad loss we should be solidly in and maybe a little room to move up with a nice AAC tourney run.

I want providence. I think theyre one of the most overrated teams out there. Kris Dunn is great defensively but is sloppy on offense. I've seen him make a ton of bad turnovers. Ben Bentil is good but I think Miller and AB could shut him down, barring they stay out of foul trouble which is a whole separate issue at this point.

 

[Jerry1714]

So Providence moves up a line in a week where they lost their only game?

Actually, they moved up without playing a game. The last update was Friday and they had the weekend off

 

[huskiesnyc]

I think Hi-Low and Jerry are right on PC and that's probably a good thing for us. I know it's talked about every year but geez this bubble is weaker than ever and that's a good thing for UConn. 2-0 week please.

 

[gwhuskyfan]

Kinda wish we were a 10, the 7s seem more beatable.

 

[gtcam]

10, 9, 8, 7 seed - who cares
As long as UConn is in anything can happen, though my hopes for this year are quite less than in 2011 and 2014
I can't believe Gonzaga is last 4 in on some and last 4 out in some

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

10, 9, 8, 7 seed - who cares
As long as UConn is in anything can happen, though my hopes for this year are quite less than in 2011 and 2014
I can't believe Gonzaga is last 4 in on some and last 4 out in some

Being a 6,7,10,11 is much more to our advantage than being an 8/9 seed. It's just harder to beat a team of generally equal ability, then a 1 seed two days later. Not saying we couldn't, it's just not as ideal. But at this point, we'll take any seeding.

 

[HooperScooper]

Jerry Palm also has UConn as a 9 seed playing Colorado. Before today he had UConn 1 or 2 lines lower than everyone else.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

 

[storrs15]

Jerry Palm also has UConn as a 9 seed playing Colorado. Before today he had UConn 1 or 2 lines lower than everyone else.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Thatd be cool...Theyd probably all be so high that we would get an offensive rebound or two

 

[Drew]

FWIW I now see the American getting only 2 teams in. Us and Cincy. Temple is in but only as the conference leader and Tulsa is first four out

 

[Jerry1714]

FWIW I now see the American getting only 2 teams in. Us and Cincy. Temple is in but only as the conference leader and Tulsa is first four out

No they are not. They would be in even if they were not the conference leader, hence the 11 seed.

 

[upstater]

Looking at BPI, UConn has only 2 losses outside the top 50, and both are to Temple.

This is considered a big positive when it comes tournament selection.

As of right now, Tulsa is still inside the top 50.

Michigan is at 51. If Michigan moves up just one spot, UConn will have wins over SMU, Tulsa, Michigan and Texas in the top 50.

Essentially, UConn is showing 4 Top 50 wins and just two losses outside that, with those 2 losses coming to Temple which is in the 60s.

The two losses to Temple are mind-numbing. The way both games were lost just makes me shake my head.

 

[dogpause]

Beat a 1 and you become a 1.

 

[Ts5034]

Being a 6,7,10,11 is much more to our advantage than being an 8/9 seed. It's just harder to beat a team of generally equal ability, then a 1 seed two days later. Not saying we couldn't, it's just not as ideal. But at this point, we'll take any seeding.

I agree 100%. The field in general is probably wide open. I just think there is a big drop off between the 1 and 2 seeds this year. Id rather be a 7 or 10 seed than an 8/9 seed

 

[champs99and04]

No they are not. They would be in even if they were not the conference leader, hence the 11 seed.

It's hard to tell where they fall on the S-curve based on that because everybody else on the 11 line or below is also an auto-bid. The only exception is Cincinnati and Gonzaga playing for the last 11 seed, but I don't think auto bids are allowed to play in that game. My feeling is that Temple is still in a dangerous spot.

 

[Jerry1714]

It's hard to tell where they fall on the S-curve based on that because everybody else on the 11 line or below is also an auto-bid. The only exception is Cincinnati and Gonzaga playing for the last 11 seed, but I don't think auto bids are allowed to play in that game. My feeling is that Temple is still in a dangerous spot.

Oh they are definitely in real danger, but here is the S curve

Saturday seed list (CAPS=AQ): 01-NOVA, 02-KU, 03-UVa, 04-Okla, 05-UNC, 06-Xav, 07-IOWA, 08-Miami, 09-MichSt, 10-Md, 11-Wvu, 12-Ore, 13-UK...14-Duke, 15-IowaSt, 16-Day, 17-Purd, 18-NDame, 19-ZONA, 20-Texas, 21-TexA&M, 22-Utah, 23-Ind, 24-Bay, 25-Cal, 26-SoCal, 27-WICH, 28-Flor, 29-Prov, 30-Colo, 31-SoCar, 32-StJoe, 33-Conn, 34-ZAGA, 35-Wisc, 36-Cuse, 37-VCU, 38-Mich, 39-SHall, 40-Pitt, 41-TEMP, 42-Lsu, 43-VALP...44-TTech(L4), 45-Bama(L4), 46-MONM, 47-Butler(L4), 48-Cincy(L4), 49-SDSU, 50-UALR, 51-CHATT, 52-STONY, 53-YALE, 54-AKRON, 55-HAW, 56-UNCW

So prior to their Houston win they were 1 at large spot from the L4 in.

 

[Mots010]

Do we need to take into account the 1-2 seed bump AAC teams seem to get? I mean, in 2014, we were convinced we were a 5 seed, and all the bracketologists agreed. Then on selection sunday, 7 seed. It was pretty consistent across the board for our conference mates. I'm convinced we're in, but it makes me nervous being in that 9-10 seed range.

 

[Jerry1714]

Do we need to take into account the 1-2 seed bump AAC teams seem to get? I mean, in 2014, we were convinced we were a 5 seed, and all the bracketologists agreed. Then on selection sunday, 7 seed. It was pretty consistent across the board for our conference mates. I'm convinced we're in, but it makes me nervous being in that 9-10 seed range.

No it was not, 2 teams in the last 2 years have "screwed" on their seed coming from the AAC, UConn and Lville in 2014.

You could argue Cincy last year and Memphis in 2014 were very generously seeded.

 

[HooperScooper]

No it was not, 2 teams in the last 2 years have "screwed" on their seed coming from the AAC, UConn and Lville in 2014.

You could argue Cincy last year and Memphis in 2014 were very generously seeded.

SMU not making the tournament in 2014?

 

[BFieldHusky]

While I agree that I thought we would be a 5 seed, and was shocked we were a 7, the committee also threw us a bone in that our first two rounds were in Buffalo, and then the next 2 rounds were at MSG.

 

[Jerry1714]

SMU not making the tournament in 2014?

Two years ago:
SMU - Out - RPI 53 - Kenpom 64, BPI 31
Last four in:
Iowa - RPI 55 - Kenpom 24, BPI 26 - Iowa deserved it over SMU
Tenn - RPI 40 - Kenpom 14, BPI 25 - No debate Tenn deserved it over SMU
Xavier - RPI 47 - Kenpom 43, BPI 54 - X had better RPI and Kenpom - big BPI difference between the 2
NC State - RPI 54 - Kenpom 67, BPI 61 - Here is the only case to be made, but SMU played the 135th SOS as opposed to NC State's 23rd SOS

It probably came down to 2 teams, NC State and SMU, and outside of BPI and SOS the numbers are identical.

SMU being left out was not crazy or egregious.

 

[tzznandrew]

Two years ago:
SMU - Out - RPI 53 - Kenpom 64, BPI 31
Last four in:
Iowa - RPI 55 - Kenpom 24, BPI 26 - Iowa deserved it over SMU
Tenn - RPI 40 - Kenpom 14, BPI 25 - No debate Tenn deserved it over SMU
Xavier - RPI 47 - Kenpom 43, BPI 54 - X had better RPI and Kenpom - big BPI difference between the 2
NC State - RPI 54 - Kenpom 67, BPI 61 - Here is the only case to be made, but SMU played the 135th SOS as opposed to NC State's 23rd SOS

It probably came down to 2 teams, NC State and SMU, and outside of BPI and SOS the numbers are identical.

SMU being left out was not crazy or egregious.

People remember them being ranked, and so inflate the snub. They played a piss-poor schedule that was a holdover of being CUSA and got hurt because of it.

 

[Inyatkin]

People remember them being ranked, and so inflate the snub. They played a piss-poor schedule that was a holdover of being CUSA and got hurt because of it.

They also cratered to end the season. They looked like a lock and somehow choked it away, which made it seem more of a snub than it was.