Clarifier - please feel eminently free to skip.
Uconndoit,
Yes, this a fair summation, lol. I bumped it up to 51 in practical terms (knowing JC himself only needs 48) because it's easier to conceptualize, and it makes sense since we will be solid favorites in all those games (and therefore doomed). For such an idle, but fun, exercise as this, it just makes it easier to think about: that the team will have to win closer to 28 - 30 games this year for JC to sail past Knight next year. I didn't jump to a conclusion, I just tried to present another way to think about his prospects...a point which might be lost on an un-careful peruser of this thread (not you).
My overall point is that it's not a foregone conclusion that JC moves past Knight in '12-'13, nor, given the fact that retirement is at least a possibility year to year now, ever, really. I hope he does.