Borges: Calhoun at Practice, Drummond to Return?

[HuskyHawk]

There is no way he should be a number 2 pick right now. I know NBA GMs are brain dead when it comes to looking at anything other than potential, but he's an Andrew Bynum -- it will be years before he actually helps someone win, and the way the NBA works at that point it probably won't be the team that drafts him.

Having said that, am I shocked if some NBA numnut of a GM takes him at #2 for his "potential?" We've seen that song played so many times.

It would be shocking if he goes any later than #3 and he probably will be #2. That's the right move for any GM.

 

[Dogbreath2U]

With him, he still feels like a kid out there - from the emotional side. I mean, even the way he moves around the floor in that goofy way. The college environment and another year there would just generally be healthier for him in growing up ready for the NBA life.

This is the main point, IMHO, that many people just fail to get when they frame it only as a financial decision. AD could have real harm done to him by going to the NBA when he is not remotely ready to be away from home, on his own, with lots of money.

 

[RuffRuff]

Oden:

1. 2007-2008: microfracture surgery on right knee, misses first NBA season.
2. 2008-2009: foot injuries, plays 61 games, averages 9 and 7 in 21 minutes
3. 2009-2010: injures left knee, plays 21 games, averages 11 and 9 in 24 minutes
4. 2010-2011: microfracture surgery on left knee, misses season
5. Winter 2011: would have been given qualifying offer of 8.9 million, had another setback, still got 1.5 million or so.
6. 5 year career, 23 million or 4.6 a year or $283,950 a game.

Kwame:

1. Career average of 7 and 6 with a season high of 11 and 7.
2. Career earnings: 50+ million or 5 million a year

Olowokandi:

1. 11 Years in NBA
2. Career average of 8 and 7
3. About 38 million or 3.5 million a year

Fatty Curry:

1. 10 Year Career (19 games in past 3 years)
2. 13 and 5 average
3. 69 million

Point being, teams always overpay for big men who are athletic or have potential.

Even a better example - Hasheem Thabeet. He's tall, that's it.

There are two positions scouts/franchises are in love with and will always put more stock into - PG's and Centers. Centers will always be overvalued because the inherent trait to be good at it is a born with trait - size - so will be picked because of that alone at times. Whereas a PG needs to be assessed on actual skill. Ie. Greg Oden and Sam Bowie.

 

[Prezidint]

if he screwed around with multiple prostitues ala Tiger Woods thus affecting his career.

How, exactly, would that affect his career?

 

[Prezidint]

BTW - Greg Oden is an outlier, and the warnings were already written on the wall when the PTs foolishly drafted him - the guy looks like an old man, he walks like an old man, he was seriously injured in college, he has one leg that's substantially longer than the other, he didn't look well proportioned -

Drummond is the opposite of all that - the kid screams "my body is super athletic, resilient, and perfectly proportioned. And I look like a kid, not an olden man."

So leave Oden out of it. How many guys in the last 20 years have had a career ending basketball injury of any kind under the age of 20?

 

[superjohn]

I think Drumond comes back. The kid loves college, loves Calhoun and he and Calhoun both know he needs to improve. Calhoun always tells kids when he knows it's their time to leave, I think he will tell Drummond he's a top 5 pick but he just isn't ready and he worries about Andre's second contract. It's much easier to improve in college than it is being thrown to the fire in the nba, when you're not ready in the nba you ride the bench.

 

[businesslawyer]

Even a better example - Hasheem Thabeet. He's tall, that's it.

There are two positions scouts/franchises are in love with and will always put more stock into - PG's and Centers. Centers will always be overvalued because the inherent trait to be good at it is a born with trait - size - so will be picked because of that alone at times. Whereas a PG needs to be assessed on actual skill. Ie. Greg Oden and Sam Bowie.

I'd leave Bowie out of it as well. Bowie would have been a multi-year All Star if he wasn't constantly destroyed by injuries early in his NBA career.

I don't doubt AD can still go really, really high. But he shouldn't, because I'd bet that in ten years we find at least a half dozen players who come out with him who have had much better careers.

 

[jorge34]

Drummond should be in high school right now, with next year being his one and done season in college. By reclassifying, he get the huge benefit of 2 years of college under his belt. I believe that he reclassified with the intention of coming back for a second year of college.
He needs it.

I think Lamb's head is already in the NBA>

 

[Walker11]

I know NBA GMs are brain dead when it comes to looking at anything other than potential, but he's an Andrew Bynum .

You say he's a Bynum as if its a bad thing. There are 29 NBA teams who wish their center was Andrew Bynum. He was putting up a double double in his 3rd season, at the age of 20. Sure, he's been injured a lot but I wouldn't be bummed if AD turns into a Bynum. Fact is, his ceiling is higher than Bynum's. AB is bigger but AD is a lot more athletic and more fluid. Hopefully AD can learn some post moves and become fundamentally sound just as Bynum has (wouldn't hurt to also have Kareem as a mentor).

 

[husky711]

Honestly... I think a lot of people are overestimating how much one more year could "hurt" his draft stock. Even if Drummond came back next year and looked overall the same as he did this year (chances are very slim, he's very athletic and willing to learn... that is obvious) I cannot imagine seeing his draft stock drop. It might be around the same, or maybe a slot or two lower (or higher, who knows) depending on the personnel entering next years draft compared to this year's draft. But unless he just completely loses all of the talent/athleticism he showed this year and turns into a 6'10" walking tree without any ability in any aspect of the game... then I really don't think his stock is going to drop significantly after ONE more year.

Now, if he stayed another 2 years (especially if he stayed another 3, for the full 4) then yes... I could see where draft stock dropping could be a serious concern. He would have to show steady improvement and show that he has some offensive weapons in his arsenal in order to stay around where he is now. If he regresses over the next 2 years at UConn then that would be detrimental to his draft stock. Regardless, I don't see him staying at UConn for 3 years total. I think he'll stay one more year for a total of 2 years... and that is the best choice overall. It will allow him to improve his game at this level before moving on to the NBA, it will allow him to mature as a young man before stepping into a multi-million dollar business, and there is very little chance that his draft stock will decrease honestly. He would have to COMPLETELY the bed next year and look horrendous in comparison to this year for his draft stock to drop more than a couple of spots at worst. Heck, depending on what next year's draft class looks like... he could even end up going a bit higher. It all depends on what teams need what positions and the talent of the other players in the draft class. There's a bunch of factors that play into it... but if he stays another year he will certainly be a top 5 pick again this time next year (again, unless he somehow completely regresses 1000% and loses everything that he showed us this year). I'd bet money on it.

 

[uconnbill]

I don't think AD if healthy goes lower than second or third in any draft. I think he can go first next year but no higher than second or third this year.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I don't think AD if healthy goes lower than second or third in any draft. I think he can go first next year but no higher than second or third this year.

The experts agree. By the way, on body type, the guy AD reminds me of is Tim Duncan. But AD is much faster. Duncan stayed all 4 years I believe, but it was a different era.

 

[CTFIRERETIRED]

At the end of the day it really depends on the financial situation of his family. Drummond already established the fact that he's not a normal kid when he gave up his scholarship for Mike Bradley. That was a great gesture on his part by all means, but in addition to Drummond being a great kid, I think it shows that he's either in a financially stable situation and/or money isn't as important to him as other things.

I do think the "injury" risk is a bit overexaggerated, though. Even if he blows out his knee, there is a good chance he's back within a year and retains 99% of the athleticism he wants had, considering the advancments in medicine and technology. Barring any sort of dramatic event, the kids infiinite ceiling and potential won't go anywhere over the next year, regardless of how quickly he develops. Even in the case of Greg Oden, he probably could have sat his sophmore year at OSU, put together a couple of good workouts, and still been picked in the top five. Point is, the money is always going to be there for Drummond. Even if he doesn't show any improvements over the next year, he's still a lottery pick based on his Godly physical abilities.

I would advice him to stay another year, but it's a very difficult decision and I'm sure us boneyarders will support him either way.

Speaking of Mike Bradley, just what is the status on him? I mean, is he still with the club, has been redshirted another year? Is he any good? Does he leave the program to make way for another blue chip recruit? Speaking of leaving the program, just what happens if Lamb AND Drummond decide to stay? What happens to Omar Calhoun? Someone correct me here, but ALL the scholly's are filled are they not?

 

[CTFIRERETIRED]

I agree with Sparky and many others in this post. Drummond's athletecism and body are a perfect blend for a big man at the next level. As we all know, he lacks fundamentals and a real feel for the game. I remember reading somewhere where a few kids who were drafted out of high school and wound up busts claimed that at the NBA level there was a lot less teaching. IF this is true, it certainly would not hurt for AD to come back another year. The natural gifts are just so amazing. Look at what he's done this season. Solid for a freshman big. Imagine with more teaching!

I remember when the Celtics ended up with Kendrick Perkins, right out of high school, some number of years ago [2003], and only within the last 2 years or so, he was very raw, and it took him several years to finally become a pretty good NBA player. The same can be said about Drummond. If some team wants him, has the money and the time to invest in making him a serviceable NBA player, then he is gone. If, however he is drafted to make an immediate impact, then he is in serious trouble. No he is not ready NOW, but, like Perkins, given the time and patience to develop, he will become a good player.

 

[CTFIRERETIRED]

"AD has some serious holes in his game. Holes he might never fix. If someone will draft him top 5, he should go. There is a non-negligible chance he could be exposed with another year and his stock fall."

i completely disagree. he just turned 18! he has physical gifts that you just cant teach so a summer and then another season of development will do wonders for his game. look at thabeets improvement. he went from a 7 foot stiff who fell to the ground any time he made contact to a dominant shot blocker that went #2 in the nba draft. to think AD is not going to improve significantly from this year to next is crazy.
if he comes back next season and spends this summer working hard and attending big man camps i believe he`ll be a monster next year. itll be a waste if we`re not eligible for the tournament but itll be fun to watch. AD has once a decade physical talent and he is going to become a great player at the next level id bet the house on it.

thabeets improvement. he went from a 7 foot stiff who fell to the ground any time he made contact to a dominant shot blocker that went #2 in the nba draft

One also has to remember, that Thabeet also went from a #2 pick to the NBA Development league too, because he still was not ready.

 

[upstater]

The experts agree. By the way, on body type, the guy AD reminds me of is Tim Duncan. But AD is much faster. Duncan stayed all 4 years I believe, but it was a different era.

Duncan was an anomaly even in his era. Remember, kids back then were going into the NBA really quickly. Kevin Garnett is in Duncan's cohort. That was the 1990s.

 

[upstater]

Speaking of Mike Bradley, just what is the status on him? I mean, is he still with the club, has been redshirted another year? Is he any good? Does he leave the program to make way for another blue chip recruit? Speaking of leaving the program, just what happens if Lamb AND Drummond decide to stay? What happens to Omar Calhoun? Someone correct me here, but ALL the scholly's are filled are they not?

They are expecting to get back 2 scholarships so that would be Calhoun + Drummond.

 

[upstater]

There is no way he should be a number 2 pick right now. I know NBA GMs are brain dead when it comes to looking at anything other than potential, but he's an Andrew Bynum -- it will be years before he actually helps someone win, and the way the NBA works at that point it probably won't be the team that drafts him.

Having said that, am I shocked if some NBA numnut of a GM takes him at #2 for his "potential?" We've seen that song played so many times.

The GMs nightmare is probably passing on a kid like Drummond the way GMs passed on Michael Jordan. If you pass on Drummond and he turns into Hakeem Olajuwon, you are going to own that decision for the rest of your career, whereas picking him and watching him become Ben Wallace won't destroy you as badly.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I remember when the Celtics ended up with Kendrick Perkins, right out of high school, some number of years ago [2003], and only within the last 2 years or so, he was very raw, and it took him several years to finally become a pretty good NBA player. The same can be said about Drummond. If some team wants him, has the money and the time to invest in making him a serviceable NBA player, then he is gone. If, however he is drafted to make an immediate impact, then he is in serious trouble. No he is not ready NOW, but, like Perkins, given the time and patience to develop, he will become a good player.

Drummond's upside is far, far beyond Perkins'. I think Duncan is closer to what he could be if everything goes right. Even today, Perk is a defender and rebounder, with limited offensive skill and mediocre athleticism. He'd be better served from a development perspective by staying, but if he goes 2-3 in the draft, it's hard to pass up.

 

[Reno]

One also has to remember, that Thabeet also went from a #2 pick to the NBA Development league too, because he still was not ready.

And never was going to be ready.

I think the biggest deciding factor for Drummond though will be the 2013 postseason ban. If it is upheld then there is no way he's coming back.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

It's the old argument of upside versus known production. If you're a GM, would you take Drummond or Jared Sullinger, who's also in the mix for a top 5 pick?

Sullinger is who he is. He's a very crafty 6'8'' PF who scores and rebounds extremely well for his size at the college level. He's also a guy who plays mostly below the rim and will be far from a game changing defender in the NBA. What can he really improve on over the next 5 years that will significantly change his game? I suppose he can extend his range out to the 3 point line and try and become a mini Kevin Love. But it's not like he's going to wake up in 3 years with Blake Griffin's athleticism.

Drummond of course is a completely different story. He's more likely to be a bust than Sullinger is, but he's also more likely to be a game changer. He may never become Dwight Howard, but teams are tripping over themselves to acquire centers as good as DeAndre Jordan and Tyson Chandler - guys who do two things well: 1) dunk and 2) defend the basket. Andre's not too shabby at those two things already and he's only 19.

GM's are willing to take that gamble. If you run the Bobcats or Wizards, you can take a lower upside guy like Sullinger and maybe win 3-4 more games next year since he's an upgrade over what you have, but where does that leave you - you're still in the lottery. Or you can draft Drummond and hope he develops into a monster over the next 3-4 years that can help make you a playoff team. If he doesn't work out, guess what, you're still in the lottery.

 

[Reno]

Drummond's upside is Dwight Howard. Whether or not he gets there and how far away he is from that are other stories, but the upside is you'll get a perennial All-Star and one of the top players in the game. That's why he'll go top 3 overall.

 

[Reno]

He's the type of pick you almost need to make if you're a lottery picking GM, but he's either going to turn your franchise around or cost you your job.

 

[upstater]

And never was going to be ready.

I think the biggest deciding factor for Drummond though will be the 2013 postseason ban. If it is upheld then there is no way he's coming back.

Drummond will have to decide before that decision on the 2013 postseason.

 

[Cheddie]

As much as I agree he needs another year.. it'd be irresponsible for him to stay if he was going to be a top 3 pick.

This kid did also say he was going to prep school up until 3 days before college classes started, so I wouldn't take his word as gospel.

Who knows what a young man his age will decide? And if he goes, absolutely no one should hold that decision against him. But it wouldn't be irresponsible to stay another year. He is simply so gifted that the money is always going to be there. And he's not ready for the NBA offensively. More work on his offense will help him to come into the NBA with a bang, and that's worth a lot. Not to compare AD to LeBron, but James earns well less than half his money from the Heat. You don't earn big endorsement $ sitting on the bench.

 

[Tommyboy]

Drummond will have to decide before that decision on the 2013 postseason.

and this is why we want to take a flamethrower to the NCAA.

("just a little touch up!")

 

[HuskyHawk]

It's the old argument of upside versus known production. If you're a GM, would you take Drummond or Jared Sullinger, who's also in the mix for a top 5 pick?

Sullinger is who he is. He's a very crafty 6'8'' PF who scores and rebounds extremely well for his size at the college level. He's also a guy who plays mostly below the rim and will be far from a game changing defender in the NBA. What can he really improve on over the next 5 years that will significantly change his game? I suppose he can extend his range out to the 3 point line and try and become a mini Kevin Love. But it's not like he's going to wake up in 3 years with Blake Griffin's athleticism.

Drummond of course is a completely different story. He's more likely to be a bust than Sullinger is, but he's also more likely to be a game changer. He may never become Dwight Howard, but teams are tripping over themselves to acquire centers as good as DeAndre Jordan and Tyson Chandler - guys who do two things well: 1) dunk and 2) defend the basket. Andre's not too shabby at those two things already and he's only 19.

GM's are willing to take that gamble. If you run the Bobcats or Wizards, you can take a lower upside guy like Sullinger and maybe win 3-4 more games next year since he's an upgrade over what you have, but where does that leave you - you're still in the lottery. Or you can draft Drummond and hope he develops into a monster over the next 3-4 years that can help make you a playoff team. If he doesn't work out, guess what, you're still in the lottery.

Exactly. The NBA is full of good players. But the only way to move into the group that gets to the conference finals or league finals is to have at least 2 "star" players. Drummond is a potential dominant player. Anthony Davis is the consensus #1, as the best combination of potential and current impact.

But the NBA scouts have consistently missed over the years in predicting who will become a star. Plus some drafts are very strong at the top (2003 for example). Look at 2005.

#1 Bogut (bust)
#2 Marvin Williams (solid - not a star)
#3 Deron Williams (very solid)
#4 Chris Paul (star)
#5 Ray Felton

Charlie V went #7 and Bynum #10. Drafting for potential worked. The drop off from Paul at #4 to Felton at #5 is massive. If I'm a GM, the one thing you never do is take a player who has proven he's mediocre. Hilton Armstrong at #12 in 2006? Terrible. Always draft the kids. Look at 2008. Very strong draft, and the ones that have stuck around were all Fr. and Sophomores. The Seniors and Juniors were busts. Take productive seniors in round #2. They may become solid bench players.

 

[msgordon]

There is no way he should be a number 2 pick right now. I know NBA GMs are brain dead when it comes to looking at anything other than potential, but he's an Andrew Bynum

.........

 

[Reno]

#1 Bogut (bust)
#2 Marvin Williams (solid - not a star)

Both guys are solid and both guys didn't meet expectations.

 

[aceboon]

Exactly. The NBA is full of good players. But the only way to move into the group that gets to the conference finals or league finals is to have at least 2 "star" players. Drummond is a potential dominant player. Anthony Davis is the consensus #1, as the best combination of potential and current impact.

But the NBA scouts have consistently missed over the years in predicting who will become a star. Plus some drafts are very strong at the top (2003 for example). Look at 2005.

#1 Bogut (bust)
#2 Marvin Williams (solid - not a star)
#3 Deron Williams (very solid)
#4 Chris Paul (star)
#5 Ray Felton

Charlie V went #7 and Bynum #10. Drafting for potential worked. The drop off from Paul at #4 to Felton at #5 is massive. If I'm a GM, the one thing you never do is take a player who has proven he's mediocre. Hilton Armstrong at #12 in 2006? Terrible. Always draft the kids. Look at 2008. Very strong draft, and the ones that have stuck around were all Fr. and Sophomores. The Seniors and Juniors were busts. Take productive seniors in round #2. They may become solid bench players.

Eh not to nitpick but Deron Williams is way beyond "very solid" and Marvin Williams doesn't belong in the solid category, he's a bum and the fact that ATL needed a PG and two All Stars went directly after him just makes his pick even more of a bust.