Blind Bubble Resume Comparison 2/8/24

[auror]

Rank/order these teams and give your reasoning. They are ordered by NET ranking.

Power = ave rank of KenPom, T-Rank, EvanMiya, BPI, and NET
Resume = ave rank of KPI, SOR, and WAB

Team A

• Record (Conf): 14-9 (6-6)
• Power - 35, Resume - 56
• Away/Neutral - 4-6
• NCSoS - 132
• Q1 (1A), Q2, Total: 2-7 (0-5), 5-1, 7-8
• Q3+Q4 losses: 1

Team B

• Record (Conf): 12-11 (5-7)
• Power - 38, Resume - 75
• Away/Neutral - 5-7
• NCSos - 28
• Q1 (1A), Q2, Total: 3-6 (2-3), 3-2, 6-8
• Q3+Q4 losses: 3

Team C

• Record (Conf): 13-10 (7-5)
• Power - 44, Resume - 58
• Away/Neutral - 3-6
• NCSoS - 10
• Q1 (1A), Q2, Total: 2-7 (1-5), 5-1, 7-8
• Q3+Q4 losses: 2

Team D

• Record (Conf): 14-8 (6-6)
• Power - 55, Resume - 45
• Away/Neutral - 5-6
• NCSoS - 191
• Q1 (1A), Q2, Total: 3-7 (2-4), 3-1, 6-8
• Q3+Q4 losses: 0

Team E

• Record (Conf): 15-8 (6-6)
• Power - 53, Resume - 52
• Away/Neutral - 3-6
• NCSoS - 144
• Q1 (1A), Q2, Total: 4-5 (2-3), 2-3, 6-8
• Q3+Q4 losses: 0

Team F

• Record (Conf): 15-8 (8-4)
• Power - 62, Resume - 58
• Away/Neutral - 5-5
• NCSoS - 197
• Q1 (1A), Q2, Total: 4-4(2-2), 1-3, 5-7
• Q3+Q4 losses: 1

 

[Jaydumo20]

I like this thread.

In order from best to worst:
D, E, F, A, C, B.

The thing that scares me the most when looking at a teams future is Q3/ Q4 losses.
I'd rather not lose many Q3/Q4 because the early rounds of the tourney would be so up in the air. A few bad losses raises more issues than a few good wins does a team good IMO

 

[auror]

Spoiler: Answers

Team A - St. John's
Team B - Villanova
Team C - Xavier
Team D - Butler
Team E - Providence
Team F - Seton Hall

 

[Hurleyman216]

EDFACB

 

[CTBasketball]

This is a very bubbly conference. Only 2 will get in.

 

[Peacefrog]

D: three Q1 wins with two being very strong. Power/resume competitive with the other candidates. Lots of road wins and no bad losses.
E: similar to "D" but a bit shaky in Q2 and only three R/N wins.
F: a couple very good wins and several road wins. Best record/conference record of the group. Weak-ish schedule. Bad Q2 record. Bad loss.
A/C or C/A: really struggling to decide between these two.
B: Barely above .500 and below .500 in conference. At some point you actually have to win games. And 3 bad losses = no bueno

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Good exercise and really shows how soft the bubble is this year. This was difficult.

E C A D F B

It is tough to balance the different factors, though I feel there is a gulf before B. I could see an argument for any order of the first five.

E has a solid resume and no bad losses
C has accumulated losses but the 10 NCSOS and 6 Q1A games jumps out
A is another solid resume but they don't have a signature win
D and F are penalized for a bad NCSOS, but they have some good wins. I give D the nod due to metrics
B, despite the tough schedule, is killed by their 3 bad losses and losing conference record

 

[CardiacAndre7]

DFEACB

 

[BGesus4]

E seems to have as good of a chance as anyone

 

[businesslawyer]

Don't have enough time to give it thought but I'll say this -- to me, I weight the resume metrics way, way over the power metrics. I don't care who Vegas thinks would be favored on a neutral court, and I don't care how many points you win or lose games by. Who did you beat, who did you lose to and where? That is what the resume metrics show you, that is ALL that would be cared about in any professional sport and that's how we should be selecting NCAA teams. Wins and losses, not margins.

 

[navery12]

From a very cursory glance E D F C A B

Edit: And after seeing the teams I largely agree

 

[shizzle787]

St. John’s has arguably the easiest remaining schedule. They still play DePaul and Georgetown three more times combined.

 

[Tenspro2002]

These teams all blow.

 

[bigknight3]

Good exercise and really shows how soft the bubble is this year. This was difficult.

E C A D F B

It is tough to balance the different factors, though I feel there is a gulf before B. I could see an argument for any order of the first five.

E has a solid resume and no bad losses
C has accumulated losses but the 10 NCSOS and 6 Q1A games jumps out
A is another solid resume but they don't have a signature win
D and F are penalized for a bad NCSOS, but they have some good wins. I give D the nod due to metrics
B, despite the tough schedule, is killed by their 3 bad losses and losing conference record

Only poster that didn't have to a b c in their bottom three

 

[Ricker]

E Winning record, no bad losses, away wins
D Same as E but lesser strength of schedule
F Lesser than E & D with Quad 3/4 loss, higher than A due to away wins
A Below F due to poor away record
C 13-10 record with 2 bad losses isn't impressive
B 3 Q3/Q4 losses is disqualifying on this list

(posted before reading any responses)

 

[auror]

Bracket Matrix updated this morning.

DA are essentially tied. F right behind them in the tourny. E pretty close, first 4 out. B a bit behind them, next 4 out. C in last but still on bubble.

 

[bendm]

is there anything to this "big12 has rigged the system" talk? i've heard some people saying big12 only schedules cupcakes in the OOC in order to inflate their records, so that when it comes to the conference schedule they can beat each other up and not drop in the rankings... this doesnt make sense to me though...playing only Q3 and Q4 team in the OOC does more harm than good when it comes to resume, doesnt it? UConn fans certainly do nothing but complain about playing cupcakes b/c there's no upside.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

is there anything to this "big12 has rigged the system" talk? i've heard some people saying big12 only schedules cupcakes in the OOC in order to inflate their records, so that when it comes to the conference schedule they can beat each other up and not drop in the rankings... this doesnt make sense to me though...playing only Q3 and Q4 team in the OOC does more harm than good when it comes to resume, doesnt it? UConn fans certainly do nothing but complain about playing cupcakes b/c there's no upside.

They are accused of rigging the metrics. Beating up Q3-4 teams by 20+ inflates efficiency measurements which is a component of NET

 

[bendm]

They are accused of rigging the metrics. Beating up Q3-4 teams by 20+ inflates efficiency measurements which is a component of NET

beating long island U by 30 never seemed to help us. at least not accordning to anyone on this board. people would say we cant play teams ranked in the 300s we have to least play teams in the 200s. so which is it?

 

[navery12]

beating long island U by 30 never seemed to help us. at least not accordning to anyone on this board. people would say we cant play teams ranked in the 300s we have to least play teams in the 200s. so which is it?

The people on this board who complain just like to complain, even if they're wrong

 

[Jaydumo20]

is there anything to this "big12 has rigged the system" talk? i've heard some people saying big12 only schedules cupcakes in the OOC in order to inflate their records, so that when it comes to the conference schedule they can beat each other up and not drop in the rankings... this doesnt make sense to me though...playing only Q3 and Q4 team in the OOC does more harm than good when it comes to resume, doesnt it? UConn fans certainly do nothing but complain about playing cupcakes b/c there's no upside.

100%.
I'm so tired of collusion and conspiracy being the standard now. It has become normal speech.
Every p5 plays warmup games but cupcakes as a league wise strategy is pretty hard to get behind.

 

[auror]

is there anything to this "big12 has rigged the system" talk? i've heard some people saying big12 only schedules cupcakes in the OOC in order to inflate their records, so that when it comes to the conference schedule they can beat each other up and not drop in the rankings... this doesnt make sense to me though...playing only Q3 and Q4 team in the OOC does more harm than good when it comes to resume, doesnt it? UConn fans certainly do nothing but complain about playing cupcakes b/c there's no upside.

No, there is nothing behind it. ACC fanboys trying to prop up their league because their bubble teams beat nobody so they were wondering why they weren't getting more bids as a conference.

The Big12 had the best record against the best leagues.

 

[gsmooth]

Without reading past auror's first post and not knowing the teams (I will be biased to Big East teams) I would say...

E, D, F, C, B, and A in that order of who should get into the NCAAT

I think E, D, and F are a cut above A, B, and C. I chose E above D and F because their Power and Resume numbers are too similar to discern a difference, but E has the highest ranking non-conference schedule among the 3 and their Away/Neutral record as well as the Q1 (1A) Q2 records are very similar. Also, E doesn't have any Q3 or Q4 losses. D and F are similar but Team F has a Q3/Q4 loss while Team D doesn't.

Teams A, B, and C are similar with their W/L numbers and their Power and Resume numbers, but C and B have much tougher non-conference schedules than A. I chose Team C above Team B because 2 bad losses (Q3/Q4) are better than 3 bad losses.

I am now going to click the Spoiler button to see which teams fall where. Although I have a feeling Team B is Villanova and it's the overall record of 12-11 that gives it away for me, assuming I am correct.

Edit: I was correct about Team B being Villanova looking not only at the overall W/L but the strong non-conference schedule as well 3 bad losses gave it away for me (loss to Big 5 or Big Philly teams). I had no idea all 6 teams would be in the Big East. BTW, reading BlueJay Underground, Creighton's website, they are sweating that they could end up on the bubble of the NCAAT. The Providence loss was a gut punch to them.

 

[gsmooth]

St. John’s has arguably the easiest remaining schedule. They still play DePaul and Georgetown three more times combined.

They can't afford to fukk those up with losses. They have that loss to Michigan which is looking like a big fat ugly pimple next to their nose.