Biggest NCAA Tournament Upset(s)?

[visitingcock]

The biggest tournament that comes to mind for me was UCLA’s 2023 (1-seed \ 4) loss to Ole Miss in the second round at home. Can anybody identify a bigger upset in NCAAW history?

Other surprises:
2017 Miss. State knocks off undefeated UConn in the semis.
2018 ND (finally) knocks off undefeated UConn in the semis
2023 Iowa knocks off undefeated SCar in the semis

Anybody wanna predict a big one this year?

 

[GamecockFam]

The biggest tournament that comes to mind for me was UCLA’s 2023 (1-seed \ 4) loss to Ole Miss in the second round at home. Can anybody identify a bigger upset in NCAAW history?

Other surprises:
2017 Miss. State knocks off undefeated UConn in the semis.
2018 ND (finally) knocks off undefeated UConn in the semis
2023 Iowa knocks off undefeated SCar in the semis

Anybody wanna predict a big one this year?

1 seed Stanford was defeated by 8 seed Ole Miss in the second round of the 2023 tournament.

 

[visitingcock]

1 seed Stanford was defeated by 8 seed Ole Miss in the second round of the 2023 tournament.

The were the fourth 1 seed .

 

[Baller29]

Miami over Indiana 2023

 

[BRS24]

1998 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament first-round game, 16-seed Harvard defeated 1-seed Stanford 71-67, becoming the first 16-seed to beat a 1-seed in either men’s or women’s tournament history. Led by Allison Feaster's 35 points, Harvard overcame injuries to key Stanford players to secure the upset at Stanford.

 

[Jim]

1998 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament first-round game, 16-seed Harvard defeated 1-seed Stanford 71-67, becoming the first 16-seed to beat a 1-seed in either men’s or women’s tournament history. Led by Allison Feaster's 35 points, Harvard overcame injuries to key Stanford players to secure the upset at Stanford.

In case you are wondering, yes, that is Sarah Strong's mother, Allison Feaster.

 

[LETTERL]

The one I remember the most is UCONN's upset of 2-seed NC State in the 1991 NCAAT. Up to that time, that was the best team NC State ever had, and earlier in the season, had beaten Tennessee by 20 points in Knoxville, and the Lady Vols went on to win the national title that year.

I always thought was UCONN's opening salvo that they were headed for national prominence.

 

[Forego]

Louisville beats Baylor 82-81 in 2013.

 

[Bigboote]

The biggest tournament that comes to mind for me was UCLA’s 2023 (1-seed \ 4) loss to Ole Miss in the second round at home. Can anybody identify a bigger upset in NCAAW history?
. . .

Anybody wanna predict a big one this year?

Geez, what would qualify as an upset this year? I guess any of the top four losing before the round of 8 or the top 8 losing before the round of 16? Of the teams that aren't likely to be top four seeds, I think Maryland, Kentucky, Ole Miss, or Tennessee could knock off a two seed. We'll have to see what the matchups are to make actual predictions.

 

[Jonathan14]

The biggest tournament that comes to mind for me was UCLA’s 2023 (1-seed \ 4) loss to Ole Miss in the second round at home. Can anybody identify a bigger upset in NCAAW history?

Other surprises:
2017 Miss. State knocks off undefeated UConn in the semis.
2018 ND (finally) knocks off undefeated UConn in the semis
2023 Iowa knocks off undefeated SCar in the semis

Anybody wanna predict a big one this year?

In 2017, MS St. was a 2-seed and UConn was a 1-seed, in 2018, ND and UConn were both 1-seeds, and in 2023, Iowa was a 2-seed to SC's 1-seed, so none of those rises to the level of a big upset for me. (Aren't 2-seeds and other 1-seeds supposed to be able to beat 1-seeds?) The MS St. win broke UConn's 111-game win streak, so that one felt like more of a shock at the time, but nowhere near Louisville (5) upsetting Baylor (1) in 2013 (or Harvard (16) upsetting Stanford (1) in 1998).

Watching Jeff Walz, Shoni Schimmel, and crew find a way to stop Brittney Griner, Odyssey Sims, and Kim Mulkey was one of the most exciting, surprising games I've ever seen. As @Forego said, that's the biggest upset in tournament history for me.

As for this year, it's hard to say before the bracket comes out, but I would look to teams with great coaches; I'd never bet against Jeff Walz, Wes Moore, or Aaron Johnston at South Dakota State.

 

[Puppy Love]

Watching Jeff Walz, Shoni Schimmel, and crew find a way to stop Brittney Griner, Odyssey Sims, and Kim Mulkey was one of the most exciting, surprising games I've ever seen. As @Forego said, that's the biggest upset in tournament history for me.

I absolutely agree. That upset of Baylor was probably the biggest one of all time. The second it was over I knew that UConn had effectively won the national championship. Schimmel had caught lightning in a bottle, but it wasn’t likely to happen twice.

 

[visitingcock]

Geez, what would qualify as an upset this year? I guess any of the top four losing before the round of 8 or the top 8 losing before the round of 16? Of the teams that aren't likely to be top four seeds, I think Maryland, Kentucky, Ole Miss, or Tennessee could knock off a two seed. We'll have to see what the matchups are to make actual predictions.

I can’t see this year’s Tennessee knocking off a two seed

 

[jake0414]

The biggest tournament that comes to mind for me was UCLA’s 2023 (1-seed \ 4) loss to Ole Miss in the second round at home. Can anybody identify a bigger upset in NCAAW history?

Other surprises:
2017 Miss. State knocks off undefeated UConn in the semis.
2018 ND (finally) knocks off undefeated UConn in the semis
2023 Iowa knocks off undefeated SCar in the semis

Anybody wanna predict a big one this year?

1. UCLA was a 4-seed in 2023 and defeated 13-seed Sacramento State and 5-seed Oklahoma at home before losing to 1-seed South Carolina in the Sweet Sixteen.
2. A 4-seed does not play a 1-seed until the Sweet Sixteen.
3. As noted 8-seed Ole’ Miss upset 1-seed Stanford at Stanford in 2023.

 

[Forego]

I can’t see this year’s Tennessee knocking off a two seed.

Magnanimous seeding assignment.

 

[triaddukefan]

Syracuse stunning Little Carolina in the 2016 Sweet 16

 

[MSSportsGuy]

1. MSU over UConn (but I’m very biased lol)
2. Harvard over Stanford
3. Louisville over Baylor

None of these three outcomes were expected. Yes MSU was a 2 seed but lost to UConn by 60 the prior year plus the 111 game winning streak.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

Anytime UCONN loses it’s considered an upset. ESPN has spoken.

 

[bballnut90]

In 2017, MS St. was a 2-seed and UConn was a 1-seed, in 2018, ND and UConn were both 1-seeds, and in 2023, Iowa was a 2-seed to SC's 1-seed, so none of those rises to the level of a big upset for me. (Aren't 2-seeds and other 1-seeds supposed to be able to beat 1-seeds?) The MS St. win broke UConn's 111-game win streak, so that one felt like more of a shock at the time, but nowhere near Louisville (5) upsetting Baylor (1) in 2013 (or Harvard (16) upsetting Stanford (1) in 1998).

Watching Jeff Walz, Shoni Schimmel, and crew find a way to stop Brittney Griner, Odyssey Sims, and Kim Mulkey was one of the most exciting, surprising games I've ever seen. As @Forego said, that's the biggest upset in tournament history for me.

As for this year, it's hard to say before the bracket comes out, but I would look to teams with great coaches; I'd never bet against Jeff Walz, Wes Moore, or Aaron Johnston at South Dakota State.

UCONN/Mississippi State ranks #1 or #2 all time for me considering the stage and magnitude of the upset. I know it was a 1 vs 2 seed but UCONN was undefeated and looked like a machine, having only lost 2 games in the previous 5 years. They were a 23 point favorite in the Final Four and no one thought Mississippi State had a prayer. I have that on par with Baylor/Louisville, though I understand the argument for Baylor/Louisville being a bigger upset. Those were the only times in 30+ years of following the sport that it felt like the impossible just happened.

2018 was also an upset but not the same magnitude. The top 4 teams that season were all evenly matched (as evidenced by the Final Four results) and Notre Dame gave UCONN everything it could handle in the regular season matchup.

1998 Stanford/Harvard was statistically the biggest upset being a 1 vs 16, but if you deep dive into it, I don't think it's close to being one of the biggest ones of all time. Harvard was badly underseeded and led by Allison Feaster who was an All American that year and future WNBA All Star (and also Sarah Strong's mom) They had a solid program, had been to the tournament 3 years in a row and put up a very good fight as a 14 seed a couple of years prior. They had a good year in 1998 and should've been seeded significantly higher.

Stanford was generously seeded as a 1 seed with a 21-5 record. Kristin Folkl missed the first part of the year due to being a dual sport athlete and they were not a good team without her, going 4-5 without her in the lineup and 17-1 with her there. She injured herself right before the NCAA tournament and they also lost another top scorer in Vanessa Nygaard and weren't anywhere near the same team without those 2. They still should have won at home but in reality, both teams were improperly seeded, Stanford was missing their best player and without her there Feaster was clearly the best player on the court and led her team to the win.

 

[triaddukefan]

Duke over the 3 time defending national champ Tenneesee in 1999. I remember walking through the concourse after that game thinking that these TENN fans got a long sad 5 hour trip on Interstate 40 back to Knoxville.

 

[bballnut90]

Top 2 for me as noted above are UCONN/Mississippi State and Baylor/Louisville. Other games that were very unexpected:

2016: 3/4 of the #1 seeds go down in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. Notre Dame/South Carolina both had incredible seasons losing just 1 game to UCONN in the regular season and seemed like locks to make the Final Four. Notre Dame lost to a relatively underwhelming Stanford team that tournament and South Carolina unexpectedly lost to Syracuse. Then you had Baylor as the 4th #1 seed who was 36-1 and they lost in front of a home crowd to Oregon State in the Elite 8. Going into that tournament it seemed like a given all of the #1 seeds would make the final weekend but only UCONN got there.

2023: #1 seeds Indiana and Stanford lose at home. Indiana especially was shocking for me considering how great they'd been all year. Stanford had signs of disaster but that was also very unexpected.

2023 Iowa beating South Carolina. Probably my #3 or 4 upset all time. Everyone was intrigued to see how Iowa would do but very few people thought they had a prayer to pull it off considering how much bigger and more athletic South Carolina was. One of the better games in NCAA history.

2011: Notre Dame beating Tennessee and then UCONN en route to the title. I think that's the only time a team beat both Pat Summitt and Geno in the same tournament. Notre Dame had lost something like 25 straight games to Tennessee and Tennessee had a fantastic team that year who was 34-2 and had won 25 straight games. They were the clear favorite but Skylar Diggins torched them. Then in the Final Four Notre Dame faced UCONN it was Maya Moore's senior year. Notre Dame had lost 3x to UCONN that year and hadn't beat UCONN in years. All signs pointed to UCONN winning their 3rd title but Diggins stole the show again and pulled off the upset. Baylor losing to Texas A&M in the Elite 8 was also a major upset that season after they had owned A&M earlier that year and looked like a major title contender.

2007: Rutgers beating #1 Duke in the Sweet 16. Duke had an undefeated regular season and had beat Rutgers by 40 points earlier in the year. Lindsey Harding missing 2 free throws down by 1 point with less than a second left on the clock to lose the game and end her career had to be the most brutal ending I've ever seen for a player.

2004: Minnesota beating Duke in the Elite 8 and ending Alana Beard's career. I think most were hyped up for a Beard/Taurasi meetup in the Final Four, Duke looked primed to make a championship run in Beard's final year with a very talented squad but Whalen/McCarville carried Minnesota to a semi-Cinderella Final Four. Minnesota was the 7 seed but dropped significantly due to Whalen missing a lot of time with injury.

2001: Xavier clobbers Tennessee in the Sweet 16. Tennessee lost Catchings midyear but still had a great team and dominated a very strong SEC (and beat full strength UCONN at home) without Catchings. Losing in the Sweet 16 to Xavier of all teams came out of nowhere.

Also #5 Southwest Missouri State handily beating #1 Duke in the Sweet 16. I don't think this was necessarily the biggest upset but there was a magnitude about it with all time leading scorer Jackie Stiles leading an underrated team past the favored #1 seed.

1999: Duke upsets Tennessee in Elite 8. Most had Tennessee penciled in for a championship matchup with Purdue as they were viewed as the top 2 teams all year. Tennessee had Chamique Holdsclaw as a senior and most thought she'd close her career with a 4th title but Duke played great while Tennessee had one of its worst showings on the year.

1998 Texas Tech as a 1 seed loses in the 2nd round by 15 at home to Notre Dame. I don't know much about Texas Tech's team but they were 25-4 entering the tournament.

 

[Bone Dog]

UCONN/Mississippi State ranks #1 or #2 all time for me considering the stage and magnitude of the upset. I know it was a 1 vs 2 seed but UCONN was undefeated and looked like a machine, having only lost 2 games in the previous 5 years. They were a 23 point favorite in the Final Four and no one thought Mississippi State had a prayer. I have that on par with Baylor/Louisville, though I understand the argument for Baylor/Louisville being a bigger upset. Those were the only times in 30+ years of following the sport that it felt like the impossible just happened.

2018 was also an upset but not the same magnitude. The top 4 teams that season were all evenly matched (as evidenced by the Final Four results) and Notre Dame gave UCONN everything it could handle in the regular season matchup.

1998 Stanford/Harvard was statistically the biggest upset being a 1 vs 16, but if you deep dive into it, I don't think it's close to being one of the biggest ones of all time. Harvard was badly underseeded and led by Allison Feaster who was an All American that year and future WNBA All Star (and also Sarah Strong's mom) They had a solid program, had been to the tournament 3 years in a row and put up a very good fight as a 14 seed a couple of years prior. They had a good year in 1998 and should've been seeded significantly higher.

Stanford was generously seeded as a 1 seed with a 21-5 record. Kristin Folkl missed the first part of the year due to being a dual sport athlete and they were not a good team without her, going 4-5 without her in the lineup and 17-1 with her there. She injured herself right before the NCAA tournament and they also lost another top scorer in Vanessa Nygaard and weren't anywhere near the same team without those 2. They still should have won at home but in reality, both teams were improperly seeded, Stanford was missing their best player and without her there Feaster was clearly the best player on the court and led her team to the win.

Injury or not, upsets are about relative seedings. A 16 beating a 1 is by definition the largest possible upset. The ethos of basketball is that you play the team you have. That’s what both Stanford and Harvard did that year.

If we’re talking about the most shocking upset, then maybe Louisville — Baylor counts. But not otherwise.

 

[bballnut90]

Injury or not, upsets are about relative seedings. A 16 beating a 1 is by definition the largest possible upset. The ethos of basketball is that you play the team you have. That’s what both Stanford and Harvard did that year.

If we’re talking about the most shocking upset, then maybe Louisville — Baylor counts. But not otherwise.

I guess we have different views on it because for me, context matters beyond the specific seed differential.

For example, I'd absolutely say 2013 #1 Baylor losing to #5 Louisville was a bigger upset than 2023 #1 Stanford losing to #9 Ole Miss.

And injuries are incredibly relevant for upset magnitude, especially when you lose both your best player right and your 3rd top scorer right before the tournament.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I think UConn getting whipped by Ohio State in S16 a couple of years ago was pretty surprising.

 

[Bone Dog]

I think UConn getting whipped by Ohio State in S16 a couple of years ago was pretty surprising.

I wasn’t all that surprised by it, though it did pain me to watch it. Azzi was still slowed by her knee injury that season and Lou was a bit gimpy too. Aubrey is very athletic, but her ballhandling skills are not really up to dealing with a very practiced pressing team like tOSU. They’d also struggled to get by lesser teams that season.