Biggest gap ever between #1 and #2?

[Suebird10fan]

I estimate that UConn is 17 to 18 points better than ND and around 20 points better than SC. That seems to fit in with the consensus around these parts. (And who cares what they think elsewhere?)

Here's my question though--has that 17/18 point gap ever been this large heading into the post-season? I don't think so. Last year I felt like it was more like 10 to 12 (before Achonwa got hurt). In 2010 I felt like Stanford was within around 12 points of the Huskies. I distinctly remember thinking in 2002 that our 12 point win over Oklahoma was right around expectations. The only one I'm a little fuzzy on is 2009 but I think Stanford was also within a dozen points or so that year. That would cover all of the years that would be likely candidates for a bigger gap. So I'm inclined to think this is the largest ever.

What do all of you think?

Note that I'm not saying UConn is better this year than some of those other teams. It happens to be a weak year for top teams--outside of UConn, no one is what you would think of as championship caliber. Still, it's worth noting, and does remind us that even if the 2015 edition won't be undefeated, they have a chance to go down as one of UConn's more dominant teams.

 

[msf22b]

Sounds about right

 

[Frodo]

I estimate that UConn is 17 to 18 points better than ND and around 20 points better than SC. That seems to fit in with the consensus around these parts. (And who cares what they think elsewhere?)

Here's my question though--has that 17/18 point gap ever been this large heading into the post-season? I don't think so. Last year I felt like it was more like 10 to 12 (before Achonwa got hurt). In 2010 I felt like Stanford was within around 12 points of the Huskies. I distinctly remember thinking in 2002 that our 12 point win over Oklahoma was right around expectations. The only one I'm a little fuzzy on is 2009 but I think Stanford was also within a dozen points or so that year. That would cover all of the years that would be likely candidates for a bigger gap. So I'm inclined to think this is the largest ever.

What do all of you think?

Note that I'm not saying UConn is better this year than some of those other teams. It happens to be a weak year for top teams--outside of UConn, no one is what you would think of as championship caliber. Still, it's worth noting, and does remind us that even if the 2015 edition won't be undefeated, they have a chance to go down as one of UConn's more dominant teams.

I haven't been especially impressed with SC all year, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss ND, who I think still has the best shot to stop UConn. They lost at South Bend without Turner and at Miami without Reimer, and though I don't believe those two are enough to handle UConn's front court, they still have a good backcourt and some shooters. They could be a tough out.

 

[NewCorn]

I haven't been especially impressed with SC all year, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss ND, who I think still has the best shot to stop UConn. They lost at South Bend without Turner and at Miami without Reimer, and though I don't believe those two are enough to handle UConn's front court, they still have a good backcourt and some shooters. They could be a tough out.

True, but ND scored only 71 against GT, 68 against Louisville, and 67 against NCST. They'll need more points against UConn, and the Huskies are a tougher defense than those teams. Go Huskies.

 

[CocoHusky]

Definitely the largest gap ever heading into a post season that I can remember. But think of the mental gap though. Take a player like Jewell Lloyd what must she be thinking. "We had them in our gym down double digits, I dropped 30+ and we still got blown out" in her heart does she really want to play UCONN again?

 

[Orangutan]

Last year with Achonwa I thought ND had an outside shot of beating UConn. This year I think they have basically no shot barring a major injury or some kind of avalanche of weird luck (e.g. huge foul trouble for UConn and Jewell shooting 80+%).

So I don't know about all time but I definitely feel like the gap is much larger this year than other years.

With respect to what NewCorn said, ND is 2nd in the country in offensive points per possession. Offense is not the issue (though UConn could certainly shut ND down). Defense and even moreso, rebounding is the issue. ND has got away with giving up lots of o-boards all season long. I don't think UConn will let ND off the hook by missing chippies like, for example, Tennessee did.

 

[Bayareahusky]

Come to think of it you are right this year has to be the biggest differential...... the only thing that will stop us this year is one of 3 things.......1. injuries 2. foul trouble or 3. we beat ourselves....... I said at the Stanford game that the loss was good as it provided a veritable tutorial of what we had to do to get better..... looking forward to post season

 

[bballnut90]

2002 UCONN had a huge gap, they rolled against everyone and never had a truly competitive game. Oklahoma had a great team, but the title was never in doubt.
2009 UCONN was light years better than anyone in the country. They beat Stanford by 19, no games by single digits. I don't think anyone posed a real challenge to UCONN.

In 2010 I thought Stanford was a much better team than they were in 2009 due to the improvement of Pohlen and Nneka. UCONN was about the same, maybe a bit better with Charles so much more consistent and a healthy Doty. But the gap between the two was far less, as evidenced by the title game.

2014 I thought UCONN and Notre Dame were far above everyone else in women's basketball. UCONN had the better team but it would've been a more evenly matched game if Achonwa was healthy.


This year I think the gap is bigger than any of these years. Notre Dame is the only team that should put any sort of doubt in UCONN fans heads because Turner is a unique talent who could potentially make a huge impact. Reimer is improved from the beginning of the season, and Loyd can get hot and pour on points. Also, Muffett is one of few coaches who has found success against Geno.

South Carolina will be slaughtered again in round two, Tennessee doesn't have a chance with no Harrison (and they didn't stand a chance before...), Maryland is overrated as a #1 seed, and no one else comes remotely close to have the athletes and team structure that UCONN does. I think UCONN rolls and wins each game by 20+ in one of the most predictable NCAA tournaments ever.

 

[jcoton56]

Definitely the largest gap ever heading into a post season that I can remember. But think of the mental gap though. Take a player like Jewell Lloyd what must she be thinking. "We had them in our gym down double digits, I dropped 30+ and we still got blown out" in her heart does she really want to play UCONN again?

Lloyd may not like it, but it is a fact of life.

 

[meyers7]

Take a player like Jewell Lloyd what must she be thinking. "We had them in our gym down double digits, I dropped 30+ and we still got blown out" in her heart does she really want to play UCONN again?

Actually an elite player like Loyd is probably relishing the chance to take a shot at the big dog again.

 

[Tonyc]

UConn is overwhelming this season. You've got 5 first team WNBA picks most likely when they graduate.. Stewart is the most dominate player on both sides of the ball ever in WCBB and may be in the WNBA. Mojeff is the top point guard and KML is the best 3 pt shooter in WBB. All imo are first team AAs. As a team UConn can go insides and outside to score and they do it with ease. UConn should win every game in the NCAAs by 20+ pts. Maybe the league is down but there is more parity therefore less dominate teams. The top players are spread around amongst many teams. In the past it was UConn and Tenn, then UConn Stanford Baylor and Tenn. UConn continues to get their cream of the crop.

Geno has this game down to a science. Where other coaches coach their players Geno is a step ahead working on the mental and team aspects of the game. This is what puts him at a different level. When Tuck and KML were out last season and UConn facing 6 top teams most of which were played away from CT, UConn blew them out, that proved to me that his system works and he can plug players into his system and they will be successful. The more talent the better the results. This season when he sat KML and Stewart and the non starters got a lot of playtime UConn rolled again. Its about his ability to prepare his team mentally and keeping them all on the same page with discipline which creates the trust in his system which creates team confidence and for them to continue to play their unselfish game.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

I do not think this argument that with Achonwa in last years FF or Turner in this years matchup would have made a difference in the final scores!
If Achonwa played she could have only covered one UCONN front line player! With Stef, Stewie, Stokes, KML running wild the rest of the Irish inept front line players couldn't stop the other 3! In this years game if Turner could have played she would have covered Stewie or KML, who would cover a more powerful front line with Gabby, Stewie, KML, Stokes, and Tuck! The front lines is where UCONN has the edge, the back court is a wash, even though I give UCONN's G's a slight edge!

 

[01Neaggrad02]

Notre Dame is one of the only schools that scares me. To estimate UCONN as an 15+ favorite worries me. We beat them without Turner. Turner is a baller. I would not underestimate her contribution to the team. I fear that a post like this could be "locker room" motivation to Notre Dame.

I still think UCONN will win it all, but I think it will be a lot closer. (I hope I am wrong)

 

[DobbsRover2]

Stats are an imperfect means for judging the distance between teams, but the difference in UConn's scoring margin of this year versus its top rivals' scoring margin is running at around a 19 to 22 point gap. That is much larger than in any recent years. In 2009 for instance when Stanford was seen as the top rival to an undefeated UConn team entering the Tourney, UConn was at a 30 point margin and Stanford at around 21, so a 9 point gap. True, UConn's schedule was tougher back in 2009 and its bench weaker, a factor that kept its margin down. But judging by the only SOS ratings for which records are readily available, unfortunately the RPI, by its own flawed system the top teams basically just played tougher schedules years ago and the differences should even out. In 2009 the teams with the toughest RPI SOS schedules were playing 17 to 19 games of 30 regular seasons games against top 50 opponents, and nowadays its down to 13 to 15. So at a time when brain-dead RPI is indicating that the mass of teams have dropped the competition level a notch or two, UConn appears to be putting more distance between itself and other teams.

Of course, if UConn had a 75-game winning streak right now, the difference would seem even larger, and there would be five threads running on the BY directed at five different Neanderthal football writers who had decided to write pieces about why UConn is bad for women's basketball and why they would never want to watch the women play their slow and sloppy game below the rim.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Stats are an imperfect means for judging the distance between teams, but the difference in UConn's scoring margin of this year versus its top rivals' scoring margin is running at around a 19 to 22 point gap. That is much larger than in any recent years. In 2009 for instance when Stanford was seen as the top rival to an undefeated UConn team entering the Tourney, UConn was at a 30 point margin and Stanford at around 21, so a 9 point gap. True, UConn's schedule was tougher back in 2009 and its bench weaker, a factor that kept its margin down. But judging by the only SOS ratings for which records are readily available, unfortunately the RPI, by its own flawed system the top teams basically just played tougher schedules years ago and the differences should even out. In 2009 the teams with the toughest RPI SOS schedules were playing 17 to 19 games of 30 regular seasons games against top 50 opponents, and nowadays its down to 13 to 15. So at a time when brain-dead RPI is indicating that the mass of teams have dropped the competition level a notch or two, UConn appears to be putting more distance between itself and other teams.

Of course, if UConn had a 75-game winning streak right now, the difference would seem even larger, and there would be five threads running on the BY directed at five different Neanderthal football writers who had decided to write pieces about why UConn is bad for women's basketball and why they would never want to watch the women play their slow and sloppy game below the rim.

The MoV stats you cite definitely strengthen my feeling that this is the biggest gap between 1 and 2 ever.

That said, even barring injuries I could certainly imagine ND (and maybe SC) pulling off the upset if everything fell into place. But I really like our chances. A lot.

 

[geneticrex]

ND is a good team and was able to compete with UConn for a couple seasons, but much of their run of miracle last second success against the Huskies was due to the transfers of EDD and Walker and a flop-fest that bordered on an SNL skit. The masses love to point to the injury of Achonwa in last year's debacle without ever mentioning the injuries to Morgan Tuck, which I find "interesting" since every time this year's blowout in South Bend is brought up, the Turner injury is front and center.

There are 2 teams I hope UConn gets in the tournament. One being Stanford, for obvious reasons and the other being ND at full strength.

Let the chips fall.......

 

[jsloanjr]

ND will have a tough time in the ACC tournament this year..........MD will walk through the BIG 10, but struggle against any top 10 team on the neutral court..........PAC 12...ZERO.........SEC.....SC, Tenn.........Going the other way at the wrong time of year......They hit the wall and injuries..........Too bad.........

 

[Tonyc]

We beat ND early in the season right after we had lost to Stanford. We played at ND trailed by 10 and won by 18 all at ND. That's a 28 pt turn around. We are light years better right now. IMO winning on a neutral court by 20+ is easy for me to see. It could get ugly quick. No way Turner can handle Stewart on defense or offense and Loyd will not make the difference herself. ND has to get their first and I think they have a good chance of doing that. The pairings are critical for every team. It should be UConn and the 4th number 1 seed or a team from that bracket. That bracket could be MD Tenn or Baylor.

 

[Nuyoika]

Notre Dame is one of the only schools that scares me. To estimate UCONN as an 15+ favorite worries me. We beat them without Turner. Turner is a baller. I would not underestimate her contribution to the team. I fear that a post like this could be "locker room" motivation to Notre Dame.

I still think UCONN will win it all, but I think it will be a lot closer. (I hope I am wrong)

I'm not saying underestimate her... but man you just gave A LOT of credit to a freshman who have never even put on a jersey vs a UConn team.

 

[Tonyc]

We have Morgan Kiah and Breanna and Turner cant defend any of them one on one let alone 2 of them. If ND plays UConn in the FF UConn will blow them out. One player or two players cant carry their team against UConn. UConn has too many weapons and scores to many points and doesn't allow opponents to score to many points. Barring injuries we will win number 10 this season and number 11 next season. Why? Two words....Breanna Stewart.

 

[LadyVols9]

I don't know the exact year but it seems to me that the Maya Moore teams had more separation from 1 to 2. UCONN has a great team this year but I don't think they have more separation than some of Moore's teams.

 

[DobbsRover2]

I don't know the exact year but it seems to me that the Maya Moore teams had more separation from 1 to 2. UCONN has a great team this year but I don't think they have more separation than some of Moore's teams.

It's always a matter of perception and nothing can be proved, and our knowledge of what happened in the 2009 and 2010 NCs may color perceptions, making the 2009 team seem even more dominant. But one possibly meaningless indicator that may or may not back up that one of Maya and Tina's 2009 and 2010 teams were considered to have a bigger gap over the next best team is the poll results at the end of regular season, though there are many factors that go into how an individual votes and the number of voters changes from year to year.

In week 17 of all three years (2009, 2010, 2015), UConn was the unanimous selection as #1 in both polls, so the dominance factor is solely based on the support for the #2 team. Stanford was considered the next best team in 2009 and 2010, and Notre Dame is #2 in 2015. Again, the number of voters was different in all cases except the 2009 and 2010 Coaches poll, but if the #2 team got all of the #2 votes, they would have a score 25 points less than the #1 team. Dividing the difference between the perfect and actual score by the number of votes gives a score showing how close to being a unanimous #2 a team was, with 0 being a perfect score. The scores seem to indicate the 2009 might have been perceived by the voters to have the biggest gap over the next best team. However, it could just as easily be argued that it was simply that the Stanford team in 2009 had a bigger gap over the #3 team Oklahoma, than did the 2010 Stanford team over an undefeated #3 team Nebraska or the current ND team has over USCar or Maryland.

AP ------------------------ Coaches
2009: (54/45) 1.20 -- 2009: (20/31) 0.64
2015: (18/35) 0.52 -- 2010: (13/31) 0.42
2010: (16/40) 0.40 -- 2015: (11/32) 0.38

So the voting score gap between the #1 and #2 teams was the biggest in 2009, but again, it is debatable whether that means the power difference between the two teams was larger.

 

[Wally East]

There was a pretty big gap in '97-'98, too -- probably similar to the others being considered. Just thought it bears mentioning

 

[DobbsRover2]

There was a pretty big gap in '97-'98, too -- probably similar to the others being considered. Just thought it bears mentioning

True but 76-68 over Illinois, 73-66 over Alabama, 67-63 over Alabama, and 76-70 over UNC, plus six other wins with margins between 10-19. They won, but the difference wasn't always huge.

 

[Suebird10fan]

I don't know the exact year but it seems to me that the Maya Moore teams had more separation from 1 to 2. UCONN has a great team this year but I don't think they have more separation than some of Moore's teams.

I have a very clear recollection on 2010, which is my personal candidate for GTOAT. It was obviously a weird final, but fact is Stanford had a really, really good team that year, especially if/when Appel was healthy. Stanford 2010 was much better than ND/SC 2015. I clearly recall a gap of around a dozen points b/w UConn and Stanford that year.

I THINK 2009 was similar but I'm a bit fuzzier on that.

 

[Suebird10fan]

There was a pretty big gap in '97-'98, too -- probably similar to the others being considered. Just thought it bears mentioning

I did wonder whether one of the Holdsclaw teams might be in the mix. I'm quite certain that post 2000, there are no viable nonUConn candidates. That said, Dobbs's comment seems compelling.

 

[Wally East]

True but 76-68 over Illinois, 73-66 over Alabama, 67-63 over Alabama, and 76-70 over UNC, plus six other wins with margins between 10-19. They won, but the difference wasn't always huge.

Well, the Illinois game was Dec 12, which is a month later than Nov 17, but on the other hand, is a win. (The second Alabama game and the game against UNC came during post-season, which the original question excludes )

Included in there are a January 3 15-point win over #3 UConn and then a February 7 24-point win over #3 Old Dominion. The two teams were #2 and #3 through the whole season.

I'd feel okay calling this gap about the same as the current gap. I remember feeling as if there was simply chance for UConn to beat them (or anyone else for that matter) and going to watch them in the Final Four felt marginally pointless.

 

[mudcat]

Definitely the largest gap ever heading into a post season that I can remember. But think of the mental gap though. Take a player like Jewell Lloyd what must she be thinking. "We had them in our gym down double digits, I dropped 30+ and we still got blown out" in her heart does she really want to play UCONN again?

Not saying the outcome would be any different, but like all accomplished athletes, I suspect Lloyd would love to play UCONN again because they wouldn't be as accomplished if they didn't think they could win if given another chance.

 

[iri10]

This year's UConn team is difficult to peg down, for me.

If we define greatness as a matter heavily influenced by the record books, then by definition this year's team falls behind many other UConn teams...even if it goes on to win a national championship. The undefeated UConn teams (plus any other undefeateds in WCBB history) are all "greater" than this team's maximum potential.

But what if you want to talk about which team is the best? Part of me thinks that this year's team would really push - and perhaps beat - some of those undefeated UConn teams. They lack the precision of some of those teams, but make up for it by being relentless. It's as if Geno said, "That '40 minutes of dread' that Mitchell is always talking about seems interesting. How can I make it better? I know: I'll make sure the dread continues when our team is on offense."

You have to go back quite a few years to find a UConn team that likes to run as much as this one does. The Maya-era superteams were more deliberate in their pacing. Because of this, I find this year's team very, very fun to watch.

Let's look at it again after this year of basketball is done. Even women's basketball can have some shocking results. It remains to be seen if this team can actually win the title, despite the fact that they've already been anointed by so many. If they do (or if they don't), perhaps we'll have more data to figure out where they fit in WCBB history.

 

[Aardvark]

This year's UConn team is difficult to peg down, for me.

If we define greatness as a matter heavily influenced by the record books, then by definition this year's team falls behind many other UConn teams...even if it goes on to win a national championship. The undefeated UConn teams (plus any other undefeateds in WCBB history) are all "greater" than this team's maximum potential.

But what if you want to talk about which team is the best? Part of me thinks that this year's team would really push - and perhaps beat - some of those undefeated UConn teams. They lack the precision of some of those teams, but make up for it by being relentless. It's as if Geno said, "That '40 minutes of dread' that Mitchell is always talking about seems interesting. How can I make it better? I know: I'll make sure the dread continues when our team is on offense."

You have to go back quite a few years to find a UConn team that likes to run as much as this one does. The Maya-era superteams were more deliberate in their pacing. Because of this, I find this year's team very, very fun to watch.

Let's look at it again after this year of basketball is done. Even women's basketball can have some shocking results. It remains to be seen if this team can actually win the title, despite the fact that they've already been anointed by so many. If they do (or if they don't), perhaps we'll have more data to figure out where they fit in WCBB history.

What do they say...the only numbers that count are the W's and L's. Great season!