Bigger improvement.. from 1st to 2nd year or 2nd to 3rd?

[Mike Honcho]

We've talked a ton about relying on our sophomore class this year, but I had it in my mind that most college stars had bigger improvements from year 2 to year 3. After doing some analysis, I found that the data doesn't really support that. Kemba's AA season was his third and final season, and while his PPG increased dramatically (14.6 to 23.5), his shooting splits and rebounds, assists, steals were all pretty similar. Same with Caron... his PPG increased from 17 to 25.1, but everything else was pretty similar (other than blocks, which went from 2.1 to 3.3).

Obviously a lot of this is how you break down the data, and percentage increases are always going to overvalue bigger deltas, which are easier when your freshman year stats suck.

Here's what I did and didn't do.

1. I did not normalize the stats per 40 minutes. This probably could have helped address the earlier downside I mentioned about percentage changes.
2. I did not take a player's usage into account. Typically that affects shooting percentages.
3. I did pull a ton of data from our stars over the Calhoun/KO/Hurley years.
   • That's 18 players (in chronological order... Donyell, Ray, Khalid, Rip, Caron, Emeka, Ben, Charlie, Rudy, Hasheem, Kemba, Boat, Shabazz, Jalen, Andre, Adama, Jordan, Donovan)
4. I did not pull data for stars who transferred in (e.g. Tristen).
5. I ended up removing the three 2-and-done guys from the analysis (Charlie, Rudy, Jordan, Donovan). That left 14 players.
6. There were only 3 players who stayed the full four years (Boat, Bazz, Jalen), so I'm not presenting the 3->4 year changes.

Anyways, the point is less about the data, and more about development expectations, especially given our sophomore class. My judgment after running this analysis is that the expectations are fair -- and that stardom is usually revealed between freshman and sophomore years. Hilton Armstrongs are seemingly pretty rare.

Happy to share the data with anyone interested. Hat tip to sports-reference.

 

[Deleted at users request]

The jump from sophomore to junior years aren’t typically stat related but moreso knowing how to win and have more control over the game.

Guys like Kemba and Shabazz produced a lot of great stats their sophomore year. They didn’t know how to win and run a team at a high level until their third years.

But those kind of leaps may be hard to quantify with data.

 

[caw]

I think a lot depends how much PT the player gets as a Freshman, but I haven't looked at any of the data. Lots of players need time for the game to slow down for them.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I am not sure what the data will tell you if you increase the sample size beyond the stars. Kevin Ollie made a big leap his third year. Marcus Williams should be included. Fair and Tony Robertson saw their usage go down as Calhoun brought in better talent behind them. Voskuhl and Knight were multi year starters that made the NBA. Stanley Robertson and Gavin Edwards were multi-year starters. Omar Calhoun’s stats got worse.

The sample makes a big difference.

 

[Uconn77Duke74]

So many variables in all of this. Was a player like Karaban getting the 4th and 5th best defender in his first two seasons and now he's seeing the other teams #1 or #2?

 

[auror]

KenPom: When and how freshmen get better, and when you have to wait until next year

One of the joys of college athletics is watching players improve over their four seasons. It’s fun to see the player who looked overwhelmed as a freshman become a team leader as a senior. Whether it’s Luke Maye, Admiral Schofield or Justin Robinson, seeing guys grow up is one of the more...

www.nytimes.com

All improvement needs to be taken with volume and usage in context.

 

[6Nattys4Us]

So many variables in all of this. Was a player like Karaban getting the 4th and 5th best defender in his first two seasons and now he's seeing the other teams #1 or #2?

Yes, because at this point, if you were a coach playing us next (e.g., Marquette) you have 2 people to shut down: Solo Ball on tight screen switching - do not let him breathe, and AK's first step to the hoop..wear him out having to guard our most physical player on O and our best defender on D. So we need Mahaney to step up as well as Stewart (if not injured) and Ross - hell why not Singare? All we get for this lineup minus Liam, is if Johnson is in the game, they have to guard against the slip screen dunk. Good, not great.

Last year, we had Castle and Clingan so they knew Castle would blanket our best guy if not a big, and Clingan would erase drives so go with uncontested else a floater. Problem was then we had Tristen who could drive and shoot, Cam, and AK was a 5th worry to score (Clingan, Castle, Cam, Newton, AK)

 

[pj]

I think the star players get playing experience as freshmen, find their weaknesses, improve greatly over the summer, and are high-level rotation players as sophomores.

If they aren't able to learn as freshmen and then take a leap as sophomores, they are probably destined to be role players. And their jump from sophomore to junior year is more around accepting that role, and becoming better role players.

On this year's team, it looks like Ball has learned and taken that leap. Ross and Stewart are looking more like role players.

 

[CT2SC]

I think a lot depends how much PT the player gets as a Freshman, but I haven't looked at any of the data. Lots of players need time for the game to slow down for them.

This. Ross is basically a RS freshman since he barely saw the floor last year. Same will be true for Nowell and Abraham next season. Guys like Caron and Kemba were starters their freshman year. Big difference in pace of development.