Big East Regular Season Odds
- Thread starter mbt0512
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Kenpom has us projected to finish 16-4 in conference. Next closest team is Creighton at 13-7.
Based on that, at this moment, I think it's fair.
Based on that, at this moment, I think it's fair.
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I want it as bad as anyone, but I guess to simplify the math.. let's look at it with the lens of a $300 wad:
bet $300 on UConn, upside is $100; field is -$300
spread $300 across Creighton ($100), Marquette ($100), Nova ($50) and Seton Hall ($50); subtracting the outlay, upside is:
Creighton $500 (assumes 7:1)
Marquette $500 (assumes 7:1)
Nova $550 (assumes 16:1)
Seton Hall $550 (assumes 16:1)
Field -$300
bet $300 on UConn, upside is $100; field is -$300
spread $300 across Creighton ($100), Marquette ($100), Nova ($50) and Seton Hall ($50); subtracting the outlay, upside is:
Creighton $500 (assumes 7:1)
Marquette $500 (assumes 7:1)
Nova $550 (assumes 16:1)
Seton Hall $550 (assumes 16:1)
Field -$300
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Thank you for explaining this in a simplified way which even I as a non-gambler should be able to understand.
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Seton Hall plays at Marquette this Saturday. If Marquette wins, all of UConn's competitors will have 3 losses or more.. We will certainly be in the driver's seat.
The next six games project as wins if UConn takes care of business, but the last six figure to be strongly competitive. The team could go 13-1 and still finish 16-4 -- but 16-4 may be good enough.
The next six games project as wins if UConn takes care of business, but the last six figure to be strongly competitive. The team could go 13-1 and still finish 16-4 -- but 16-4 may be good enough.
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If you don't believe in Seton Hall, we're 2 games clear of the field.
Last week's wins were enormous.
We virtually eliminated Villanova by virtue of winning our road game against them, with the only head-to-head now being at their place. The only good news for them is they already played at Marquette and Creighton, so their remaining schedule is not horrendous. But they're 2.5 games back.
Creighton is also in a tough spot, where they now absolutely have to beat us at home.
I guess I can see an argument for betting Marquette, but only because they're the only contender (besides SH) that has an opportunity to sweep us.
If we lose at Creighton, at Marquette, and vs. somebody else, we're 16-4. The other contenders can only afford 1 more loss to get a tie.
I'd probably stay away.
Last week's wins were enormous.
We virtually eliminated Villanova by virtue of winning our road game against them, with the only head-to-head now being at their place. The only good news for them is they already played at Marquette and Creighton, so their remaining schedule is not horrendous. But they're 2.5 games back.
Creighton is also in a tough spot, where they now absolutely have to beat us at home.
I guess I can see an argument for betting Marquette, but only because they're the only contender (besides SH) that has an opportunity to sweep us.
If we lose at Creighton, at Marquette, and vs. somebody else, we're 16-4. The other contenders can only afford 1 more loss to get a tie.
I'd probably stay away.
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I mean that's kind of the point of odds why not spread it over Butler Depaul Georgetown and Xavier upside is much higher
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This is helpful and insightful analysis.. thank you. I guess the ultimate question is whether the profit (several times what UConn would pay) of the basket of next four other contenders justifies a wager notwithstanding our excellent position to take the regular season crown. Maybe it doesn’t, or maybe it’s just better not to get involved altogether-