Big East OOC thread '25/'26

[shizzle787]

20 games remain for the league to turn things around:

10 games against the P4:

Villanova @ Michigan (12/9)
UConn vs. Florida (MSG) (12/9)
UConn vs. Texas (12/12)
Marquette @ Purdue (12/13)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (12/13)
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh (12/13)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (12/13)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (12/19)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (Atlanta) (12/20)
Butler vs. Northwestern (12/20)

1 game against a mid-major:

DePaul @ Wichita State (12/13)

9 games against cupcakes:

Xavier vs. Missouri State (12/12)
Providence vs. Brown (12/9)
DePaul vs. Morgan State (12/9)
St. John's vs. Iona (12/13)
Georgetown vs. Saint Peter's (12/13)
Butler vs. NJIT (12/22)
Georgetown vs. Coppin State (12/22)
Creighton vs. Utah Tech (12/22)
St. John's vs. Harvard (12/23)

Odds of bids by wins:

18-2 or better: 5 bids
15-5 or better: 4 bids

I expect DePaul to lose to Wichita State, and the league to go 9-0 in the cupcake games.

That leaves us with 10 P4 games to determine the league's fate.

I think we need to go 6-4 in those 10 games to get 4 bids (7-3 would almost guarantee it).

I expect Villanova @ Michigan and Marquette @ Purdue to be losses.

We should be favored in six. The two I don't think we will be favored in are Villanova @ Wisconsin and St. John's vs. Kentucky.

If we win the six we are supposed to, and swipe one of the two aforementioned games, I expect 4 bids.

Traditionally, Big East teams need 21 wins before the start of the BE tournament to lock up an at-large bid. Due to the league being down a little, a few teams will need 22 or 23 based on SOS.

End of regular season (pre-BE tournament) win totals needed for bid (and at least 5th place finish in league to get bye in BET):

UConn- 20 (who are we kidding here)
St. John's- 20
Creighton- 20
Marquette- 20
Providence- 21
Georgetown- 21
Villanova- 21
Seton Hall- 22
Xavier- 22
Butler- 22
DePaul- 23

For example, Xavier is 7-3. Assuming they beat Missouri State (doomed), they will need to go 14-6 or better in league play to get a bid.

Seton Hall is another good example. They sit at 9-1 currently. If they beat Rutgers, they would need to go 12-8 to secure a bid.

 

[HooperScooper]

Georgetown sticking with UNC. Down 32-30 with 4:30 left in the 1st half. On ESPN if you're looking for something other than football today.

I guess not much longer after my post. I jinxed it.

 

[shizzle787]

Have you seen the metrics of those other 4 teams? Right now, the only one that would look to have a chance is either Nova or Butler, and neither are teams whose rosters appear all that good. They would truly be backing in - not sure how excited I am about to have teams playing in the play in game.

This feels like a year where Uconn could honestly sweep the season. It won't happen, but it's as possible as ever. We can scratch around the bids all we want in this thread, but the league stinks. We have two real teams, a couple possible play-in type teams, and then a bunch of dumpster fires.

Two of our stronger brands Marquette & Creighton both look like borderline NIT teams.

The league is down...a little from last year...so far . It may actually end up with a better OOC record (with more P4 games) when all is said and done. That being said- it feels like it is down because Marquette and Creighton both stink (they do). Actually, teams #10 and #11 are way better than last year so the floor of the league is much higher. Also, Seton Hall, Butler, Nova, and Georgetown are all better than last year.

The real problem is that the league is down overall from four years ago. We (the Big East as a whole) usually would win about 50-55% of OOC games against the P4. This year we are 40% and I project we will finish between 42-46% (we finished at 44% last year).

 

[sdglast]

20 games remain for the league to turn things around:

10 games against the P4:

Villanova @ Michigan (12/9)
UConn vs. Florida (MSG) (12/9)
UConn vs. Texas (12/12)
Marquette @ Purdue (12/13)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (12/13)
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh (12/13)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (12/13)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (12/19)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (Atlanta) (12/20)
Butler vs. Northwestern (12/20)

1 game against a mid-major:

DePaul @ Wichita State (12/13)

9 games against cupcakes:

Xavier vs. Missouri State (12/12)
Providence vs. Brown (12/9)
DePaul vs. Morgan State (12/9)
St. John's vs. Iona (12/13)
Georgetown vs. Saint Peter's (12/13)
Butler vs. NJIT (12/22)
Georgetown vs. Coppin State (12/22)
Creighton vs. Utah Tech (12/22)
St. John's vs. Harvard (12/23)

Odds of bids by wins:

18-2 or better: 5 bids
15-5 or better: 4 bids

I expect DePaul to lose to Wichita State, and the league to go 9-0 in the cupcake games.

That leaves us with 10 P4 games to determine the league's fate.

I think we need to go 6-4 in those 10 games to get 4 bids (7-3 would almost guarantee it).

I expect Villanova @ Michigan and Marquette @ Purdue to be losses.

We should be favored in six. The two I don't think we will be favored in are Villanova @ Wisconsin and St. John's vs. Kentucky.

If we win the six we are supposed to, and swipe one of the two aforementioned games, I expect 4 bids.

Traditionally, Big East teams need 21 wins before the start of the BE tournament to lock up an at-large bid. Due to the league being down a little, a few teams will need 22 or 23 based on SOS.

End of regular season (pre-BE tournament) win totals needed for bid (and at least 5th place finish in league to get bye in BET):

UConn- 20 (who are we kidding here)
St. John's- 20
Creighton- 20
Marquette- 20
Providence- 21
Georgetown- 21
Villanova- 21
Seton Hall- 22
Xavier- 22
Butler- 22
DePaul- 23

For example, Xavier is 7-3. Assuming they beat Missouri State (doomed), they will need to go 14-6 or better in league play to get a bid.

Seton Hall is another good example. They sit at 9-1 currently. If they beat Rutgers, they would need to go 12-8 to secure a bid.

I gotta disagree on St. John's v. Kentucky. I would be stunned if St. John's isn't favored in that game if things don't change quick in Kentucky. They are historically bad right now.

 

[shizzle787]

I gotta disagree on St. John's v. Kentucky. I would be stunned if St. John's isn't favored in that game if things don't change quick in Kentucky. They are historically bad right now.

St. John's hasn't exactly been lighting it up, and the game is in Atlanta. You may be right, but in my mind St. John's is the dog due to location.

 

[RuffRuff]

The league is down...a little from last year...so far . It may actually end up with a better OOC record (with more P4 games) when all is said and done. That being said- it feels like it is down because Marquette and Creighton both stink (they do). Actually, teams #10 and #11 are way better than last year so the floor of the league is much higher. Also, Seton Hall, Butler, Nova, and Georgetown are all better than last year.

The real problem is that the league is down overall from four years ago. We (the Big East as a whole) usually would win about 50-55% of OOC games against the P4. This year we are 40% and I project we will finish between 42-46% (we finished at 44% last year).

IDK - not sure I really get excited that our 10/11 teams are better than last year. That's like saying the worst car on the lot this year is better than last year's studabaker. It's worse that our 3rd and 4th team this year feel much worse than last year. I'm more focused on the top of our league being good, not the bottom of the league being better than atrocious. The image of a league is usually determined by strength at the top. It's exciting to see teams that you feel have a shot at making a run in March, not backing in and flaming out in one game.

Gtown's NET is 115 and their KP is 93. Not sure why you keep including them. That win against Maryland wasn't much. Hall has the wins over NCSt & KSt, so decent little resume but not enough to shout in the streets. Nova really hasn't beaten anyone of note. I think you're clawing here. Not sure you realize but the national view is that the BE stinks. They're not the mountain west, but they definitely are not the P4.

 

[RuffRuff]

St. John's hasn't exactly been lighting it up, and the game is in Atlanta. You may be right, but in my mind St. John's is the dog due to location.

Have you watched UK? They just got waxed by Gonzaga in a home game in Nashville. I'm honestly not sure how hostile the UK crowd is going to be in that game after the Zags game, may actually be hoping Pitino comes back and favors them. I think StJ will def be favored. KP suggests StJ by 2.

 

[shizzle787]

Have you watched UK? They just got waxed by Gonzaga in a home game in Nashville. I'm honestly not sure how hostile the UK crowd is going to be in that game after the Zags game, may actually be hoping Pitino comes back and favors them. I think StJ will def be favored. KP suggests StJ by 2.

I think the line will shift by then, but we will see.

 

[shizzle787]

IDK - not sure I really get excited that our 10/11 teams are better than last year. That's like saying the worst car on the lot this year is better than last year's studabaker. It's worse that our 3rd and 4th team this year feel much worse than last year. I'm more focused on the top of our league being good, not the bottom of the league being better than atrocious. The image of a league is usually determined by strength at the top. It's exciting to see teams that you feel have a shot at making a run in March, not backing in and flaming out in one game.

Gtown's NET is 115 and their KP is 93. Not sure why you keep including them. That win against Maryland wasn't much. Hall has the wins over NCSt & KSt, so decent little resume but not enough to shout in the streets. Nova really hasn't beaten anyone of note. I think you're clawing here. Not sure you realize but the national view is that the BE stinks. They're not the mountain west, but they definitely are not the P4.

Georgetown's three losses are @ UNC, Dayton (N), and Miami (N). Not a single bad loss, and they beat Clemson at home.
They don't look like a tournament team from the eye test, but with regards to SOR, they are very much alive.

 

[shizzle787]

IDK - not sure I really get excited that our 10/11 teams are better than last year. That's like saying the worst car on the lot this year is better than last year's studabaker. It's worse that our 3rd and 4th team this year feel much worse than last year. I'm more focused on the top of our league being good, not the bottom of the league being better than atrocious. The image of a league is usually determined by strength at the top. It's exciting to see teams that you feel have a shot at making a run in March, not backing in and flaming out in one game.

Gtown's NET is 115 and their KP is 93. Not sure why you keep including them. That win against Maryland wasn't much. Hall has the wins over NCSt & KSt, so decent little resume but not enough to shout in the streets. Nova really hasn't beaten anyone of note. I think you're clawing here. Not sure you realize but the national view is that the BE stinks. They're not the mountain west, but they definitely are not the P4.

The national view is that the Big East is the #5 major league this year, not the top mid-major.

 

[auror]

Atlanta is still a plane ride from Lexington. Same time zone. There won't be much if any edge given to Kentucky in that one due to location. There will probably be a few Kentucky fans willing to travel, but they just have more fans in general. Game might as well be in Philadelphia as far as it would affect the line (as in Kentucky would have more fans in Philly despite the location).