Big East expansion odds | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Big East expansion odds

shizzle787 said:
I believe the Big East is the major basketball conference most likely to expand in the next 24 months due to three factors: needing more inventory for TV, keeping up with the Joneses (other four leagues all have at least 16 members), and avoiding again the disaster that was three bids this season.

I don't think the Big East will go past 14, but I think the two likely expansion points are to 12 and 14.

Who are your favorites (1-5) if the league expands to 12? Mine:
1. Gonzaga
2. Dayton
3. St. Louis
4. VCU
5. Davidson

Who are your favorites (1-5) if the league expands to 14? Mine:
1. Gonzaga
2. St. Mary's
3. Dayton
4. St. Louis
5. VCU
Expand ...

If expansion is a must I will prioritize market expansion and geographic fit as I think the Big East has a powerful enough brand (4 National Championships in the past 8 years) that it can slowly elevate the quality of play of these programs anyway to a level that is acceptable to keep the league in the top 5.

MY PICKS:

St. Louis
VCU


------------------------------
Dayton - market overlap with xavier
Gonzaga - too far in the pacific
Davidson - too small and far away
St. Mary's - No way
 
Why would we want to be in a conference with the likes of VCU, St Louis, or Dayton. So DePaul and Georgetown might get a couple wins? I don’t want Gonzaga either. Think big time moving forward not small time. And we want to be in a conference for football. You may want to deny the importance of football but it’s real.
 
shizzle787 said:
Much more likely we end up in the ACC than any ACC schools come over here.
Expand ...
Eh, I could see it going either way. If the ACC loses 4 schools instead of 2 to the SEC, downstream of that maybe the Big 12 poaches another two. In that scenario the remains of the ACC, with it's national footprint but gutted of national brands, the league is drastically less attractive. I wouldn't count out schools with a historical connection to the league (Syracuse) or schools deciding to focus on basketball as their crown jewel (BET and Basketball focus are very attractive) adding to the Big East.

Adding anyone outside of the P6 not named Gonzaga would be stupid to do, and I'm fairly certain would never happen.
 
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speckle said:
You forgot Vandy and Northwestern ;)

I'd add Dayton and VCU now. If St Louis decides to be more regularly competitive, down the line. Gotta stay aggressive to prosper and quality games, product size, adds contract leverage. Staying small for the sake of history is a losing proposition in the long run.
Expand ...
Vandy and Northwestern aren't going anywhere unless they're tossed out, which will never happen.
 
uconnfan68 said:
Vandy and Northwestern aren't going anywhere unless they're tossed out, which will never happen.
Expand ...
Never is a bold declaration these days. There's a decent argument to be made for Michigan, Ohio St, Texas, Alabama, Florida, Georgia... to just roll out and form a super conference right now. Addition by subtraction is standard procedure for ngos. The Big East sb docking DePaul's TV revenue right now imo.
 
shizzle787 said:
I believe the Big East is the major basketball conference most likely to expand in the next 24 months due to three factors: needing more inventory for TV, keeping up with the Joneses (other four leagues all have at least 16 members), and avoiding again the disaster that was three bids this season.

I don't think the Big East will go past 14, but I think the two likely expansion points are to 12 and 14.

Who are your favorites (1-5) if the league expands to 12? Mine:
1. Gonzaga
2. Dayton
3. St. Louis
4. VCU
5. Davidson

Who are your favorites (1-5) if the league expands to 14? Mine:
1. Gonzaga
2. St. Mary's
3. Dayton
4. St. Louis
5. VCU
Expand ...
Not interested in any of these schools particularly west coast schools. I would love to see another New England school such as Umass or Holy Cross if they were willing to commit the resources
 
.-.
speckle said:
Never is a bold declaration these days. There's a decent argument to be made for Michigan, Ohio St, Texas, Alabama, Florida, Georgia... to just roll out and form a super conference right now. Addition by subtraction is standard procedure for ngos. The Big East sb docking DePaul's TV revenue right now imo.
Expand ...
They would lose many more fans than they'd gain with actions like that.
 
ThabeetDown said:
Dream scenario: ACC collapse, we can add Cuse/Pitt at minimum, probably give BC a life line (I want them BEGGING though). Some of the other scraps, maybe some of the better Carolina schools (Duke, NCST) are left.
Expand ...
I suspect the only Carolina school that'd be left is Wake Forest. UNC & Duke would be a package deal to the Big 10 (along with Virginia & Georgia Tech) while NC State would head to the SEC (along with Clemson & both Florida schools) for the TV/streaming footprint + rivalry juice.

Wake Forest and Va Tech will be the big losers in the next round of realignment.
 
rgw said:
Not interested in any of these schools particularly west coast schools. I would love to see another New England school such as Umass or Holy Cross if they were willing to commit the resources
Expand ...
UMass maybe not a terrible idea.

But Holy Cross would be a terrible add
 
Expanding for the sake of expansion especially considering the list of candidates makes no sense. Where are these schools going to get the money to improve their programs? Certainly not from Fox. Who wants to watch? UConn's strength of schedule would take a massive hit.
 
.-.
There is no value out there now to help the BE and the idea that the collapse of the ACC will provide value is fanciful.
 
What happens if the SEC and Big 10 pillage the top football schools in the ACC such as Miami, Florida State, UNC, Clemson, and Virginia? Imo that might make a Big East merger with the remaining ACC schools a possibility.
 
The Big East is wayyyy more likely to try to recobble the FB/BB model should the ACC implode than and anyone short of Notre Dame to a BB only league. There is simply no school even in the leagues expanded footprint that would add any value and I include a soon to be Mark Few-less Gonzaga.

BC/Cuse/Pitt/ Wake have zero value to the B1G, SEC or B12 and not much more to a ACC leftover conference (which would make UConn it's first call).

In a world where the B1G grabs UNC (with Duke), UVA (with VT), GATech; the SEC grabs Clemson/FSU while UL, NCST, Miami beg into the B12 or some combo thereof, ND rejoins the BE as a FB independent and a decision will have to be made especially if more that those 4 are leftover.

Does UConn bolt for a FB league with BC/Cuse/Pitt/Wake/Duke/UL/NCST or something like it? As of right now, I think the answer is a hard no. Better for UConn to split the FB schedule between those schools, the AAC, MAC, and FCS as a independent? The ACC defections would need to be limited to only the top FB schools to bring the total under 12. Every one of those schools would jump to join the BE assuming FB isn't going to be a factor.

A breakout FB division or a regional realignment of non-FB sports would facilitate such a move.
 
Bonamassa said:
Expanding for the sake of expansion especially considering the list of candidates makes no sense. Where are these schools going to get the money to improve their programs? Certainly not from Fox. Who wants to watch? UConn's strength of schedule would take a massive hit.
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Dayton's basketball revenue was top 30 last year, would have slotted in at #5 in the BE. Their fanbase and brand value is very strong and would not hurt our SOS relative to the average BE team. VCU would need a couple years to catch up, but they'd slot in with Providence, SH, and SJ pretty quick. Georgetown needs to get it's act together quick and DePaul needs an ultimatum yesterday.
 
If 12 will not be Gonzaga maybe would not be if 14 either. St Mary no again too far to travel to both. If 12 St Louis(Jesuit school connection and StL market) or Dayton ( considered previously and market)
 
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uconnfan68 said:
They would lose many more fans than they'd gain with actions like that.
Expand ...
Big 10 and SEC TV contracts are already approaching a $ billion annually. A top 12ish super conference would receive at least as much divided by fewer. They could feasibly double their revenue per school in a couple years and have nearly unlimited negotiating leverage with the TV carriers. Realignment is far, far from over and fan sentiment has almost nothing to do with it.
 
I think expansion needs to be viewed beyond the lens of “adding value” to the TV contract.

More high quality teams means more bids, which means more units, which is impactful.

Also, there is strength in numbers in maintaining status.

As the p2 continue to try to take over athletics, building a conference that has all of the top non-football brands under one umbrella will help ensure access is at least on par with leagues like the Big 12 of ACC (as long as they are alive).

We lost both the B1G and Big 12 annual contests because we don’t have enough teams.

Go and add

Gonzaga
St Marys
Dayton
VCU
SLU/WSU

To get to 16 teams.
 
6in25 said:
Respectfully, I find it hard to believe that the conference wouldn't succeed if you changed the name from the BE to something else - because it no longer made since due to the teams in the conference - but still had UConn, Marquette, Creighton, Gonzaga (hypothetically), 'Nova, etc.
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Maybe something like UConn and Friends.
 
.-.
It's the Big East, not the Big West. No Gonzaga. Nebraska and Illinois are far enough away.
 
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