Big East 23/24 final regular season standings projections

[shizzle787]

1. Marquette 15-5
2. Creighton 14-6
3. UConn 14-6
4. Villanova 12-8
5. St. John's 12-8
6. Xavier 11-9
-----------NCAA tournament cut-off line-----------
7. Providence 9-11
8. Seton Hall 8-12
-----------NIT cut-off line-----------
9. Butler 7-13
10. Georgetown 5-15
11. DePaul 3-17

 

[husky429]

UConn 20-0. Don't care about the rest.

 

[Edward Sargent]

15-5

 

[auror]

I can't see Xavier finishing 2 games ahead of Providence. Providence might have 3 of the best 20 players in the conference. Xavier likely has 0. I don't buy the McKnight hype. Olivari is fine. People think 1 will be Boum, but Boum was so much better analytically in the previous conference. People are penciling Claude in for a breakout... by the numbers he wasn't very good last season, though I'm a little more confident in his defense. He doesn't have to improve in one area, he was subpar scoring from all 3 levels. There were minutes on the wing available for Xavier last season and Kam Craft pseudo-redshirted.

Yeah there's a coaching disparity, but that's already penciled into Providence not being a top 25 team when that's their talent level. Like Corey Floyd might be better than Cluade this year and he's probably Providence's 5th or 6th best player.

 

[superjohn]

I can't see Xavier finishing 2 games ahead of Providence. Providence might have 3 of the best 20 players in the conference. Xavier likely has 0. I don't buy the McKnight hype. Olivari is fine. People think 1 will be Boum, but Boum was so much better analytically in the previous conference. People are penciling Claude in for a breakout... by the numbers he wasn't very good last season, though I'm a little more confident in his defense. He doesn't have to improve in one area, he was subpar scoring from all 3 levels. There were minutes on the wing available for Xavier last season and Kam Craft pseudo-redshirted.

Yeah there's a coaching disparity, but that's already penciled into Providence not being a top 25 team when that's their talent level. Like Corey Floyd might be better than Cluade this year and he's probably Providence's 5th or 6th best player.

You're sleeping on Claude.

 

[auror]

You're sleeping on Claude.

I know you're high on him. 57% from the FT line, 29% form 3, 47% from 2. 25% TO rate (double his assist rate). Those are all bad. He'll definitely get better, but if even 2 of those stay bad despite improvements elsewhere it'll tank his efficiency. The sample sizes aren't that small, since he played half their minutes last season. Though he didn't get a ton of shots with their other options, that should mean his efficiency should be higher since he was just taking the best and most open shots, yet it was alarmingly bad. He was analytically the 2nd worst offensive player in the Big East last season.

 

[superjohn]

I know you're high on him. 57% from the FT line, 29% form 3, 47% from 2. 25% TO rate (double his assist rate). Those are all bad. He'll definitely get better, but if even 2 of those stay bad despite improvements elsewhere it'll tank his efficiency. The sample sizes aren't that small, since he played half their minutes last season. Though he didn't get a ton of shots with their other options, that should mean his efficiency should be higher since he was just taking the best and most open shots, yet it was alarmingly bad. He was analytically the 2nd worst offensive player in the Big East last season.

Sometimes you just have to watch the player more than looking at their stats. Hawkins stats were pretty horrible (minus ft%) as a freshman but the coaches and fans knew what was in there from watching him.

 

[auror]

Sometimes you just have to watch the player more than looking at their stats. Hawkins stats were pretty horrible (minus ft%) as a freshman but the coaches and fans knew what was in there from watching him.

It's not like I didn't watch Xavier last season. He was mostly invisible. He had 7 turnovers to 4 made shots (on 11 attempts) in the 3 NCAA tournament games.

There's a good chance he gets to the line a bunch this year, he's a very physically imposing player for his age. But if he only makes 65% or whatever at the line (an improvement from last year), then...

 

[August_West]

I can't see Xavier finishing 2 games ahead of Providence. Providence might have 3 of the best 20 players in the conference. Xavier likely has 0. I don't buy the McKnight hype. Olivari is fine. People think 1 will be Boum, but Boum was so much better analytically in the previous conference. People are penciling Claude in for a breakout... by the numbers he wasn't very good last season, though I'm a little more confident in his defense. He doesn't have to improve in one area, he was subpar scoring from all 3 levels. There were minutes on the wing available for Xavier last season and Kam Craft pseudo-redshirted.

Yeah there's a coaching disparity, but that's already penciled into Providence not being a top 25 team when that's their talent level. Like Corey Floyd might be better than Cluade this year and he's probably Providence's 5th or 6th best player.

I like trashing Providence as much as anyone, but anyone who thinks Xavier (with their devastating injuries) is finishing ahead of Providence is insane, but then again I raised money for charity last year on BY bets saying Providence would finish in top 5 (they did, and I was right)...... I get why we have a thing with Providence and I love it. I want to beat them more than any team in BigEast, but to not see their talent is people who just dont pay attention to college hoops. English is the wild card. I think he's going to end up being a helluva coach in the end (dude is what? 33 years old? might take a bit) , so this could be rough for inaugural season for PC, but if English can coach a lick this year, Providence with their roster is top 5-6 this year. Id have them higher if it wasn't for the new coach tradition. They have players.

 

[FlippinCrazy!]

I can't see Xavier finishing 2 games ahead of Providence. Providence might have 3 of the best 20 players in the conference. Xavier likely has 0. I don't buy the McKnight hype. Olivari is fine. People think 1 will be Boum, but Boum was so much better analytically in the previous conference. People are penciling Claude in for a breakout... by the numbers he wasn't very good last season, though I'm a little more confident in his defense. He doesn't have to improve in one area, he was subpar scoring from all 3 levels. There were minutes on the wing available for Xavier last season and Kam Craft pseudo-redshirted.

Yeah there's a coaching disparity, but that's already penciled into Providence not being a top 25 team when that's their talent level. Like Corey Floyd might be better than Cluade this year and he's probably Providence's 5th or 6th best player.

Outside of Hopkins and Carter, who’s the 3rd top 20 player they have? Not questioning you, I just haven’t followed PC too closely and don’t recognize off the top of my head any of their other new players.

Personally from the two games against UConn I saw, I do think both Hopkins and Carter are a bit overrated. They both drew fouls at an insane rate last year, but nothing really stood out to me why they did. It was just them driving to the basket, looking for contact, and getting bailed out by refs. I also don’t really like shorter guys, so maybe I’m just blinded by bias.

 

[auror]

Outside of Hopkins and Carter, who’s the 3rd top 20 player they have? Not questioning you, I just haven’t followed PC too closely and don’t recognize off the top of my head any of their other new players.

They kinda have 2 options. Josh Oduro is a 2x 1st team All-A10. But he's probably not quite that good, especially at 6'9" moving up conferences. He's probably closer to the Olivari/McKnight level. The other guy is Garwey Dual, 6'5" 2 way guard who is their top 50 freshmen that many people are even more high on than that. Sam Vecenie has him as a 1 and done and actually ahead of Castle in his last mock (#10 and #11). He has a chance to be really good as a freshmen, although it's possible his potential will outstrip his production early on.

Personally from the two games against UConn I saw, I do think both Hopkins and Carter are a bit overrated. They both drew fouls at an insane rate last year, but nothing really stood out to me why they did. It was just them driving to the basket, looking for contact, and getting bailed out by refs. I also don’t really like shorter guys, so maybe I’m just blinded by bias.

Don't forget, they're going to be another year older now. Hopkins supposedly is in better shape. I expect Carter will have added to his offensive skillset. His 3pt shot will definitely be a swing skill.

 

[August_West]

They kinda have 2 options. Josh Oduro is a 2x 1st team All-A10. But he's probably not quite that good, especially at 6'9" moving up conferences. He's probably closer to the Olivari/McKnight level. The other guy is Garwey Dual, 6'5" 2 way guard who is their top 50 freshmen that many people are even more high on than that. Sam Vecenie has him as a 1 and done and actually ahead of Castle in his last mock (#10 and #11). He has a chance to be really good as a freshmen, although it's possible his potential will outstrip his production early on.

Thanks Auror, you saved me some typing . Both Spot on. Oduro will be a load in the BigEast. Despite his A10 roots I think he is an upgrade from Croswell. (who PC loved as a player) . Dual is a guard we would love even on our squad. PC's question mark is at guard and that can go either way, considered the replacement age (see urdue last year) but they were a formidable team last year and Bynum and Breed were headcases. I cant help but think they upgraded in a huge way. Especially with Dual.

Hopkins is a major talent and Carter is a big time competitor.

 

[Dooooooomed]

Oof.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Oof.

Fake tweet. Nice

 

[shizzle787]

LOL again.

 

[HeGotGame]

I like trashing Providence as much as anyone, but anyone who thinks Xavier (with their devastating injuries) is finishing ahead of Providence is insane, but then again I raised money for charity last year on BY bets saying Providence would finish in top 5 (they did, and I was right)...... I get why we have a thing with Providence and I love it. I want to beat them more than any team in BigEast, but to not see their talent is people who just dont pay attention to college hoops. English is the wild card. I think he's going to end up being a helluva coach in the end (dude is what? 33 years old? might take a bit) , so this could be rough for inaugural season for PC, but if English can coach a lick this year, Providence with their roster is top 5-6 this year. Id have them higher if it wasn't for the new coach tradition. They have players.

Considering you said you were legitimately worried about UConn making the tournament last year when it was almost February I would slow down on tooting your own horn when it comes to college hoops takes because sheeesh you had some doozys last year.

With that being said, PC may have a better roster than Xavier, but I will take Miller over English by a large margin and be enough difference to have Xavier win more BE games then PC.

 

[KingAG]

Considering you said you were legitimately worried about UConn making the tournament last year when it was almost February I would slow down on tooting your own horn when it comes to college hoops takes because sheeesh you had some doozys last year.

With that being said, PC may have a better roster than Xavier, but I will take Miller over English by a large margin and be enough difference to have Xavier win more BE games then PC.

I feel like in long run I and many others were right about PC. They overachieved for much of last season. And ended up exactly the team many of us thought they were. An 11 seed.

 

[BuffaloHusky]

I too believe more in Providences roster than Xavier’s but I also saw at least two or three seasons in the Pac12 where you thought Archie’s teams were down and they would fight and scrap to the top of the conference. I don’t quite give Miller the benefit of the doubt like Self, Painter or Bennett but he’s on the next tier.

 

[UCLJ0211]

I feel that Cooley will get more out of his roster and win more than 5 games for GTown.

 

[Tiamat7]

I agree with most of Shizzle's predictions. However, without Freemantle and Hunter, I'd move Xavier down a notch or two. Miller is an excellent coach, but those guards will have to be special for Xavier to make the tournament.

PC could be a tournament team, but I withhold judgment until we see young Kim English coach in the Big East. And can Jayden Pierre adequately replacement Jared Bynum?

The season can't arrive soon enough.

 

[August_West]

I agree with most of Shizzle's predictions. However, without Freemantle and Hunter, I'd move Xavier down a notch or two. Miller is an excellent coach, but those guards will have to be special for Xavier to make the tournament.

PC could be a tournament team, but I withhold judgment until we see young Kim English coach in the Big East. And can Jayden Pierre adequately replacement Jared Bynum?

The season can't arrive soon enough.

Dual is the real deal

 

[Hunt for 7]

Finishing third in the regular season is only ok if we win the BE tournament. Let’s be realistic repeating is a dream, but expecting a regular season championship or BE tourney championship with a deep run in ncaa’s would keep the program on the same trajectory or better if Flagg chooses us.

 

[auror]

Xavier lost to Notre Dame by 7 in their secret scrimmage. Notre Dame was picked last (15th) in the ACC. Seemed like a realish game, there was a guy essentially radio-ing it on Spaces. Claude was good though (other than turnovers)! Notre Dame did have like the 250th D last season.

 

[navery12]

 

[McLovin]

I know you're high on him. 57% from the FT line, 29% form 3, 47% from 2. 25% TO rate (double his assist rate). Those are all bad. He'll definitely get better, but if even 2 of those stay bad despite improvements elsewhere it'll tank his efficiency. The sample sizes aren't that small, since he played half their minutes last season. Though he didn't get a ton of shots with their other options, that should mean his efficiency should be higher since he was just taking the best and most open shots, yet it was alarmingly bad. He was analytically the 2nd worst offensive player in the Big East last season.

A lot of his struggles were shooting the ball (as your numbers on him indicated).

He was, however, in the top quartile in the country in finishing at the rim. He is going to have to drastically improve the efficiency on his jump shot, but if he does, he could be a real weapon because of his ability to attack the hoop.

FWIW, his PPP driving to the hoop were better than anyone on UConn last year (Newton was the highest with 0.96 PPP on drives to the right towards the basket).

Source: ShotQuality

 

[auror]

A lot of his struggles were shooting the ball (as your numbers on him indicated).

He was, however, in the top quartile in the country in finishing at the rim. He is going to have to drastically improve the efficiency on his jump shot, but if he does, he could be a real weapon because of his ability to attack the hoop.

FWIW, his PPP driving to the hoop were better than anyone on UConn last year (Newton was the highest with 0.96 PPP on drives to the right towards the basket).

Source: ShotQualityView attachment 92514

He shot better towards the end of the year, but I'm always wary of ascribing improvement to sequence of return small sample sizes. But Miller was pretty effusive at media day and does claim his shot is much improved. We'll see! He'll still have to maintain that driving efficiency in a higher usage.

Jealous of the ShotQuality sub (though I think as a fanbase we're in a feud with them over the tournament algo results).

 

[McLovin]

He shot better towards the end of the year, but I'm always wary of ascribing improvement to sequence of return small sample sizes. But Miller was pretty effusive at media day and does claim his shot is much improved. We'll see! He'll still have to maintain that driving efficiency in a higher usage.

Jealous of the ShotQuality sub (though I think as a fanbase we're in a feud with them over the tournament algo results).

I'm going to be using them for my pregame opponent breakdown videos this year. I joked with the guy who set me up that UConn fans have a love hate relationship with the SQ data. In January when we were losing it was reassuring to see we should have won, but their predicted results for the games in March were not as friendly to us...

 

[auror]

I'm going to be using them for my pregame opponent breakdown videos this year. I joked with the guy who set me up that UConn fans have a love hate relationship with the SQ data. In January when we were losing it was reassuring to see we should have won, but their predicted results for the games in March were not as friendly to us...

Do you know if they are incorporating individual defender strength into the algo?

I thought I read that this offseason, but not sure. Might've been a fever dream. Either way, they were underrating us because of the Clingan Effect + Rubber Band Effect.

 

[McLovin]

I think they just incorporate closest defender height and distance into their PPP projections (among other factors). I'm not sure if gets down to the individual player guarding them (i.e. Jackson was quicker / could jump higher than an "average" defender of similar size).

But on offense they do look at the individual player strengths when calculating projected PPP. For example, with all other factors the same, Sanogo had a higher projected PPP on his shots near the rim than an average C of his size because his layup ability was considered "elite".

 

[August_West]