nelsonmuntz
Point Center
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2011
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Big East records only:
UConn - 18-2 - UConn is looking pretty good so far, with only loss to the #1 team in the country and UConn missing two key players. I would like to see UConn tighten up its offense a little. Demary, Ball and Mullins are too good as shooters to be under 30%. A few too many contested pullups for my taste. UConn is still winning, but it needs to tighten up the shot selection a little because some teams are going to get hot against the Huskies at some point and UConn will not be able to afford to waste possessions in those games. The defense has looked pretty good so far, and Reed and Reibe are playing so well that Hurley should look at getting them on the court together.
St. Johns - 16-4 - The analytics look better than the eye test. No shame in losing close to Alabama and Iowa State, but the Auburn loss was not great for a team that has Final Four dreams. There is a lot of talent, but I don't get how KenPom has this team as the 23rd best offense. The defense looks pretty good, but this team is not on the same page offensively. There are a lot of plays where it feels like an offensive pileup at the rim. They need better spacing. The 3 point shooting is pretty poor at 33.7%, and they are taking a lot of wide open shots. Mississippi was clogging the lane, leaving the perimeter wide open, and St. Johns still can't shoot. Darling is the only PG, and he can't shoot at all as far as I can tell. Ejiofor is really good.
Seton Hall - 14-6 - This is one of the best defensive teams in the country. KenPom has SHU at 12th best, but that still includes the preseason rankings, so they are probably Top 10. SHU has 3 good 3 point shooters, and Parker looks like a shooter although they are not dropping for him. I like their scoring at the hoop, and think they should maybe launch fewer 3's and focus more on getting to the hoop with the pass or the dribble. Rebounding is not great, and could be a problem. Playing SHU is like getting a root canal, and this is a team that could pull off some upsets in March.
Butler - 12-8 - Offense looks pretty good, and this team is more athletic than recent vintages of the Bulldogs, so the defense, while not great, still looks a little better than recent years. There are a lot of shooters on this team, and they will be tough to defend. The team is deep, and has some shot makers when the shot clock runs down. The SMU loss was an ACC refs special, and Boise was just a good game by the Boise. The Virginia win will age well, and they have to beat Northwestern to have a shot at the tournament.
Xavier - 11-9 - This is a decent team that took a little time to gel, and I don't get the NET of over 100, because they don't have a bad loss. Their efficiency numbers are not as good as they should be, particularly on offense because while there is some talent here, there is a bit too much hero ball. The starting lineup is pretty good, especially Carroll, Milicevic and Borovicanin. This team is shooting over 37% from deep and they take some bad shots, so watch out if they tighten up their shot selection. Free throw shooting is not great which is weird for a good shooting team. If this team plays more disciplined, they could win 12 or 13 games in league play.
Villanova - 10-10 - Not sure what to make of this team yet. Played BYU close, got killed by Michigan, and easily beat the teams they were supposed to beat. KenPom has game vs. Wisconsin as a tossup, so we will see. Defense does not look good, and I don't see a ton of upside on this roster other than Lewis. Results matter, so I will predict .500 in Big East play, but I sense more downside than upside from this point with this team.
Providence - 9-11 - Providence is dangerous for a 7-5 team, and passes the eye test. They go 7 deep with legitimate players. They can shoot, and are decent offensively. The defense has been pretty bad, especially on the perimeter, but it is not a talent problem. English has blown it because the talent is NCAA caliber, but those dreams are finished with losses to VTech and Colorado. That said, Providence will pick up some wins.
Georgetown - 7-13 - This is an expensive roster to be this bad. I think Lewis is a selfish player, and this is a bad shooting team from 3. They are bad on both ends of the court, but especially on offense. They somehow beat Clemson, so they don't completely suck, but I think they have all the bad Cooley habits like fishing for fouls, without nearly enough talent to get away with it.
Creighton - 6-14 - Something is wrong with this team. I don't know if it is chemistry, or the team giving up on the season because of McAndrews' injury, but Creighton looked like a team that had given up in both the Nebraska and Kansas State games. There is no coaching around "don't care", and this team looks like it doesn't care. The KenPom rankings have residuals from last year, because they are a lot worse defensively than 87. This team sucks defensively. All the hustle stats (rebounds, turnovers caused, blocks) also suck.
Depaul - 4-18 - This team is still pretty bad, especially on offense. The defense is not terrible. Benson is fun to watch, and the backcourt is serviceable. There is more upside than downside to my prediction.
Marquette - 3-17 - I can't believe how bad this team is. I would think that Shaka knows the difference between talented and untalented, so how on earth did he think this roster would be competitive? This is not a cheap roster, but they look worse in the eye test than the analytics, and the analytics aren't good. They can't shoot from deep, and they aren't that good inside. They are even surprisingly bad defensively, which you would never expect from a Shaka Smart team. There were three competitive losses, against Maryland, Dayton and Oklahoma, but all were home games against teams that are long shots for the NCAA Tournament. They have gotten blown out from the tip in their other 3 games against good opponents.
UConn - 18-2 - UConn is looking pretty good so far, with only loss to the #1 team in the country and UConn missing two key players. I would like to see UConn tighten up its offense a little. Demary, Ball and Mullins are too good as shooters to be under 30%. A few too many contested pullups for my taste. UConn is still winning, but it needs to tighten up the shot selection a little because some teams are going to get hot against the Huskies at some point and UConn will not be able to afford to waste possessions in those games. The defense has looked pretty good so far, and Reed and Reibe are playing so well that Hurley should look at getting them on the court together.
St. Johns - 16-4 - The analytics look better than the eye test. No shame in losing close to Alabama and Iowa State, but the Auburn loss was not great for a team that has Final Four dreams. There is a lot of talent, but I don't get how KenPom has this team as the 23rd best offense. The defense looks pretty good, but this team is not on the same page offensively. There are a lot of plays where it feels like an offensive pileup at the rim. They need better spacing. The 3 point shooting is pretty poor at 33.7%, and they are taking a lot of wide open shots. Mississippi was clogging the lane, leaving the perimeter wide open, and St. Johns still can't shoot. Darling is the only PG, and he can't shoot at all as far as I can tell. Ejiofor is really good.
Seton Hall - 14-6 - This is one of the best defensive teams in the country. KenPom has SHU at 12th best, but that still includes the preseason rankings, so they are probably Top 10. SHU has 3 good 3 point shooters, and Parker looks like a shooter although they are not dropping for him. I like their scoring at the hoop, and think they should maybe launch fewer 3's and focus more on getting to the hoop with the pass or the dribble. Rebounding is not great, and could be a problem. Playing SHU is like getting a root canal, and this is a team that could pull off some upsets in March.
Butler - 12-8 - Offense looks pretty good, and this team is more athletic than recent vintages of the Bulldogs, so the defense, while not great, still looks a little better than recent years. There are a lot of shooters on this team, and they will be tough to defend. The team is deep, and has some shot makers when the shot clock runs down. The SMU loss was an ACC refs special, and Boise was just a good game by the Boise. The Virginia win will age well, and they have to beat Northwestern to have a shot at the tournament.
Xavier - 11-9 - This is a decent team that took a little time to gel, and I don't get the NET of over 100, because they don't have a bad loss. Their efficiency numbers are not as good as they should be, particularly on offense because while there is some talent here, there is a bit too much hero ball. The starting lineup is pretty good, especially Carroll, Milicevic and Borovicanin. This team is shooting over 37% from deep and they take some bad shots, so watch out if they tighten up their shot selection. Free throw shooting is not great which is weird for a good shooting team. If this team plays more disciplined, they could win 12 or 13 games in league play.
Villanova - 10-10 - Not sure what to make of this team yet. Played BYU close, got killed by Michigan, and easily beat the teams they were supposed to beat. KenPom has game vs. Wisconsin as a tossup, so we will see. Defense does not look good, and I don't see a ton of upside on this roster other than Lewis. Results matter, so I will predict .500 in Big East play, but I sense more downside than upside from this point with this team.
Providence - 9-11 - Providence is dangerous for a 7-5 team, and passes the eye test. They go 7 deep with legitimate players. They can shoot, and are decent offensively. The defense has been pretty bad, especially on the perimeter, but it is not a talent problem. English has blown it because the talent is NCAA caliber, but those dreams are finished with losses to VTech and Colorado. That said, Providence will pick up some wins.
Georgetown - 7-13 - This is an expensive roster to be this bad. I think Lewis is a selfish player, and this is a bad shooting team from 3. They are bad on both ends of the court, but especially on offense. They somehow beat Clemson, so they don't completely suck, but I think they have all the bad Cooley habits like fishing for fouls, without nearly enough talent to get away with it.
Creighton - 6-14 - Something is wrong with this team. I don't know if it is chemistry, or the team giving up on the season because of McAndrews' injury, but Creighton looked like a team that had given up in both the Nebraska and Kansas State games. There is no coaching around "don't care", and this team looks like it doesn't care. The KenPom rankings have residuals from last year, because they are a lot worse defensively than 87. This team sucks defensively. All the hustle stats (rebounds, turnovers caused, blocks) also suck.
Depaul - 4-18 - This team is still pretty bad, especially on offense. The defense is not terrible. Benson is fun to watch, and the backcourt is serviceable. There is more upside than downside to my prediction.
Marquette - 3-17 - I can't believe how bad this team is. I would think that Shaka knows the difference between talented and untalented, so how on earth did he think this roster would be competitive? This is not a cheap roster, but they look worse in the eye test than the analytics, and the analytics aren't good. They can't shoot from deep, and they aren't that good inside. They are even surprisingly bad defensively, which you would never expect from a Shaka Smart team. There were three competitive losses, against Maryland, Dayton and Oklahoma, but all were home games against teams that are long shots for the NCAA Tournament. They have gotten blown out from the tip in their other 3 games against good opponents.
