Big Bubble day

[tzznandrew]

Murray State saves a bubble team's bid.

 

[champs99and04]

Feel bad for Tennessee State. They deserved to win that game, now they're going home.

 

[tzznandrew]

I feel bad for them. Not sure why they deserved it, though. They choked down the stretch.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Washington about to open up a bubble spot. Pac 12 teams have no margin of error for an at-large.

 

[tzznandrew]

Washington about to open up a bubble spot. Pac 12 teams have no margin of error for an at-large.

Has one of the six major conferences ever been this bad? I mean, the Pac-12 was bad last year, but this year it's even worse. At least last year they had Arizona catch fire, and Washington was pretty solid.

They're essentially a mid-major conference. Washington has no OOC wins of note, and lost to Nevada (not a bad loss) and St. Louis (not a bad loss either) among others. Their best win: Arizona on the road?

This conference better not get more than 2 bids.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Has one of the six major conferences ever been this bad? I mean, the Pac-12 was bad last year, but this year it's even worse. At least last year they had Arizona catch fire, and Washington was pretty solid.

They're essentially a mid-major conference. Washington has no OOC wins of note, and lost to Nevada (not a bad loss) and St. Louis (not a bad loss either) among others. Their best win: Arizona on the road?

This conference better not get more than 2 bids.

The only candidates for Bid #2 are Oregon and Washington, or Cal if someone else wins the conference tourney.

The league's best OOC wins are either Oregon State over Texas or Stanford over Colorado State. Those are the only two wins the entire league has over teams that will earn at large bids.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Big 10 crew working hard to help Northwestern escape Iowa.

 

[tzznandrew]

The only candidates for Bid #2 are Oregon and Washington, or Cal if someone else wins the conference tourney.

The league's best OOC wins are either Oregon State over Texas or Stanford over Colorado State. Those are the only two wins the entire league has over teams that will earn at large bids.

I agree. Frequently, though, the big conferences get the benefit of the doubt here. Washington tied for regular season championship, and so they'll likely get the benefit of the doubt more than they should.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Wichita State goes down. A lot of teams are rooting for Creighton now.

 

[bobbygt]

Illinois State just beat Wichita St. If they beat the Creighton game winner, they steal a bid.

 

[bobbygt]

miss st up 10+ at halftime against Arkansas. Colorado st. wins. dang.

Tennessee with a nice win against vanderbilt. Maybe it won't seem like a bad loss anymore.

 

[zls44]

Illinois State just beat Wichita St. If they beat the Creighton game winner, they steal a bid.

No they don't. They only steal a bid if they beat Creighton in the final. If they lose, no harm done at all to the bubble.

 

[bobbygt]

No they don't. They only steal a bid if they beat Creighton in the final. If they lose, no harm done at all to the bubble.

Right- I guess if Evansville beats Creighton, then a bid will be stolen for sure.

 

[Vuce]

Lunardis latest blog has about 11 at large teams behind the Huskies.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Lunardis latest blog has about 11 at large teams behind the Huskies.

And Lunardi's latest blog also has 1 team too few in the Tournament. This is why I don't bother with Lunardi. He doesn't even get the math right.

His first four out has Oregon, but he shows the Pac 12 getting 3 bids, which is impossible without Oregon. He doesn't explain why he thinks Washington is safe but Xavier, who has a bunch of great wins, is not. Colorado State played a great schedule, has a bunch of very good wins, and is also apparently last 4 in. The Committee has never excluded a team like Colorado State.

The math error is a bigger problem for me though. Lunardi is a waste of time.

 

[willie99]

Joe gets about 99% of the at large bids right, maybe 95%, but the guy is as solid as it gets

of course, things are still fluid and he will be making many changes over the next week

 

[Vuce]

The point is that he has quite a few at large teams behind Uconn. He generally is pretty good at predicting which at large teams the committee takes. He is not going to explain every last selection.

By the way, Jerry Palm has 6 to 8 at large teams behind Uconn in his latest bracket.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Joe gets about 99% of the at large bids right, maybe 95%, but the guy is as solid as it gets

of course, things are still fluid and he will be making many changes over the next week

If Lunardi can't count to 37, I am skeptical about his ability to handle percentages. Also, Joe is using the entire field as the denominator for his calculation, which means if he gets 2 bubble teams wrong, he has predicted 66 out of 68 teams right. There are rarely more than 3-4 bids that are even in question by Selection Sunday. Joe should be doing no worse than 1 wrong bid a year, and there are often years where the field is pretty clear cut. Otherwise, he is just a hack with an opinion like the rest of us.