Big 12 Pushing For UConn Part Deux!

[GG]

Nope.

Nope to which part? Thanks.

 

[giddyup]

Maybe they grab UConn and SDSU, though my instinct is they really want a west coast P5.

 

[Bongo Fury]

They will be a P5 if invited.

 

[GoKU]

Maybe they grab UConn and SDSU, though my instinct is they really want a west coast P5.

Media partners already said no on SDSU.

 

[GoKU]

Nope to which part? Thanks.

That the PAC staying together benefits UConn.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

That the PAC staying together benefits UConn.

This pretty much was the only logical conclusion to draw.

It's kind of nuts how seemingly these decisions come and go with the wind...just have to hope the next gust pushes Colorado to the Big12.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

This pretty much was the only logical conclusion to draw.

It's kind of nuts how seemingly these decisions come and go with the wind...just have to hope the next gust pushes Colorado to the Big12.

I don't think the decisions come and go with the wind, but the opinions/guesses/hopes on Twitter and message boards do.

 

[Patman]

Does that mean we’d get a discount on chicken and mashed potatoes?

Yes

 

[XOVERX]

I hate the ACC as much as the next guy but it would be a way better conference for UConn than the B12.

Yes, even when Clemson and FSU leave for SEC. And even when UVA and UNC leave for the B1G.

If ACC was smart and added UConn, they would be in prime position to lure WVU and Cincy to join their old brethren down the road.

Really a shame that conference is so myopic

I am supremely confident the ACC exodus will be larger than Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA.

If they expand at all, the B1G and SEC will expand to 20 schools, I think, and mostly out of the ACC.

I argue upthread that the B1G will be pressured by USCLA to take Washington and Oregon (Oregon has massive expansion advantages over Arizona, from gameday draw to TV viewership). With WA and OR, the B1G is at 18. Let’s just concede UNC and UVA to the B1G. The B1G is at 20. Done for the near term?

IMO, the SEC is not going void in the States of Virginia and North Carolina. When the ACC opens up, and the opportunity arises for the SEC to go north of South Carolina, the SEC will not hesitate to strike.

What are the SEC targets north of SC? First, can we agree that the SEC may be more flexible than the B1G?

The SEC philosophy is that a sports league is about money, not courses on the rise and fall of the slide rule or AAU membership. Academics are great and all, but the SEC’s bottom line is financial. It’s about the money. The SEC aspires to great academic schools, like the B1G does, sure, but the SEC will more quickly settle for a less prestigious school than will the B1G if that less prestigious school will make the SEC money.

Truth be told, UVA is a below average sports expansion candidate for either the B1G or the SEC (due to poor stadium draw, a dearth of big games, and low TV viewers). Three strikes and you’re out, to indulge a baseball metaphor? Or is UVA merely fouling balls off, due to their academic standing? You pick.

From the pov of the SEC, VPI may be the better addition over UVA, period. UVA’s 5-year average gameday draw is around 41-42k / game and it’s TV viewer numbers have been #79 (237k) and #52 (611k) over the past two years.

OTOH, VPI’s 5-year average attendance is 60k per game (!), and, although, like UVA, VPI’s TV is poor (#76-265k and #62-447k), the SEC may believe it can more easily create “big games” with VPI because VPI has a significant fan base, compared with that of UVA.

The B1G no doubt prefers that UVA academic prestige - which is considerable - but the SEC will have no problem turning to VPI, if necessary.

Conceding UNC to the B1G arguendo, NCSU draws about 56k / game compared to UNC’s 48k / game. With UNC, it’s about okay football and blue blood basketball, right? You take UNC if you can.

As for the State of North Carolina, I have no doubt UNC is an SEC target. But the SEC will immediately take NCSU if UNC goes B1G. In fact, there’s a way of thinking the SEC would take both UNC and NCSU if it can.

Now add in the defection of the ACC big dogs - Clemson and FSU. Suddenly, the ACC is looking spartan.

Finally, I think there might be an outside chance that either the SEC or the B1G goes to 21, and adds Miami or maybe Pitt. A 21-school league is fully coherent and functional with 2 protected, 8 conference, and a 3-cycle.

IOW, when the ACC collapses - and it seems an ACC collapse is inevitable - is UConn comfortable in an ACC sans, possibly, all of Clemson, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Polytechnic, North Carolina, North Carolina State, and possibly Miami and/or Pitt?

Keep in mind this is only a B1G/SEC move to 20 or 21. If the number is 24, then Miami and Piitt are definitely gone, and Louisville and Duke may be gone too.

Is the ACC stable? No. Not past 2030 to 2031 almost for sure. But there’s a lot of smoke rising from the ACC today in 2023. Back in the day, when folks saw smoke signals coming from the mountain over yonder, they didn’t have to see the Indians to know the Indians were around. Indirect evidence is a thing.

Is the B12 stable? Yes. Having said that, maybe KU is a target, due to their basketball? Maybe Iowa State is a target, due to good gameday draw (#28-57k) and impressive numbers of TV viewers (#42-882k & #27-1.219m)? [My SEC friends laugh uncontrollably when I point out ISU’s nice expansion metrics (compared with other schools not named Clemson, ND, FSU, and Washington).]

Anyhow, UConn. I think the B12 is much more stable than the ACC. If an offer to UConn from the ACC were extended today, yeah, the ACC, nice league, join up. You’re good for 10 years (no guarantee thereafter). But I don’t need to tell you there’s no UConn offer today. However, there might be a B12 offer soon (if Yormack has any say in the matter - and he does).

To me, no-brainer, UConn should take a B12 offer, join a stable league, work up football attendance (#88-22k), cultivate TV viewers (#82-212k), work toward AAU, wait for the breakaway, join the B1G or SEC. Simple formula. Even for an dumb SEC guy like me!

 

[uconnyankee]

I am supremely confident the ACC exodus will be larger than Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA.

If they expand at all, the B1G and SEC will expand to 20 schools, I think, and mostly out of the ACC.

I argue upthread that the B1G will be pressured by USCLA to take Washington and Oregon (Oregon has massive expansion advantages over Arizona, from gameday draw to TV viewership). With WA and OR, the B1G is at 18. Let’s just concede UNC and UVA to the B1G. The B1G is at 20. Done for the near term?

IMO, the SEC is not going void in the States of Virginia and North Carolina. When the ACC opens up, and the opportunity arises for the SEC to go north of South Carolina, the SEC will not hesitate to strike.

What are the SEC targets north of SC? First, can we agree that the SEC may be more flexible than the B1G?

The SEC philosophy is that a sports league is about money, not courses on the rise and fall of the slide rule or AAU membership. Academics are great and all, but the SEC’s bottom line is financial. It’s about the money. The SEC aspires to great academic schools, like the B1G does, sure, but the SEC will more quickly settle for a less prestigious school than will the B1G if that less prestigious school will make the SEC money.

Truth be told, UVA is a below average sports expansion candidate for either the B1G or the SEC (due to poor stadium draw, a dearth of big games, and low TV viewers). Three strikes and you’re out, to indulge a baseball metaphor? Or is UVA merely fouling balls off, due to their academic standing? You pick.

From the pov of the SEC, VPI may be the better addition over UVA, period. UVA’s 5-year average gameday draw is around 41-42k / game and it’s TV viewer numbers have been #79 (237k) and #52 (611k) over the past two years.

OTOH, VPI’s 5-year average attendance is 60k per game (!), and, although, like UVA, VPI’s TV is poor (#76-265k and #62-447k), the SEC may believe it can more easily create “big games” with VPI because VPI has a significant fan base, compared with that of UVA.

The B1G no doubt prefers that UVA academic prestige - which is considerable - but the SEC will have no problem turning to VPI, if necessary.

Conceding UNC to the B1G arguendo, NCSU draws about 56k / game compared to UNC’s 48k / game. With UNC, it’s about okay football and blue blood basketball, right? You take UNC if you can.

As for the State of North Carolina, I have no doubt UNC is an SEC target. But the SEC will immediately take NCSU if UNC goes B1G. In fact, there’s a way of thinking the SEC would take both UNC and NCSU if it can.

Now add in the defection of the ACC big dogs - Clemson and FSU. Suddenly, the ACC is looking spartan.

Finally, I think there might be an outside chance that either the SEC or the B1G goes to 21, and adds Miami or maybe Pitt. A 21-school league is fully coherent and functional with 2 protected, 8 conference, and a 3-cycle.

IOW, when the ACC collapses - and it seems an ACC collapse is inevitable - is UConn comfortable in an ACC sans, possibly, all of Clemson, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Polytechnic, North Carolina, North Carolina State, and possibly Miami and/or Pitt?

Keep in mind this is only a B1G/SEC move to 20 or 21. If the number is 24, then Miami and Piitt are definitely gone, and Louisville and Duke may be gone too.

Is the ACC stable? No. Not past 2030 to 2031 almost for sure. But there’s a lot of smoke rising from the ACC today in 2023. Back in the day, when folks saw smoke signals coming from the mountain over yonder, they didn’t have to see the Indians to know the Indians were around. Indirect evidence is a thing.

Is the B12 stable? Yes. Having said that, maybe KU is a target, due to their basketball? Maybe Iowa State is a target, due to good gameday draw (#28-57k) and impressive numbers of TV viewers (#42-882k & #27-1.219m)? [My SEC friends laugh uncontrollably when I point out ISU’s nice expansion metrics (compared with other schools not named Clemson, ND, FSU, and Washington).]

Anyhow, UConn. I think the B12 is much more stable than the ACC. If an offer to UConn from the ACC were extended today, yeah, the ACC, nice league, join up. You’re good for 10 years (no guarantee thereafter). But I don’t need to tell you there’s no UConn offer today. However, there might be a B12 offer soon (if Yormack has any say in the matter - and he does).

To me, no-brainer, UConn should take a B12 offer, join a stable league, work up football attendance (#88-22k), cultivate TV viewers (#82-212k), work toward AAU, wait for the breakaway, join the B1G or SEC. Simple formula. Even for an dumb SEC guy like me!

I think you have to follow that with if Big and SEC go to 20, Big 12 would expand too.
Pitt and UofL would be naturals. Getting Syracuse with UConn already added would essentially be best of all worlds.

But make no mistake, some schools would be cut out. And I think that’s what people are missing. UConn in P5 now means we control destiny on field and on the court.

Waiting increases odds UConn is cemented as BB only forever.

 

[Forte]

Anyone who thinks we should wait for ACC mercy after the shade that has been thrown for over a decade isn't thinking about the odds clearly.... if the odds for the ACC seem bad multiply that multi-fold for the B1G ever taking on a G5 team over P5 options. Take any P5 option that opens up.... survive and advance

 

[NE Football]

It’s really difficult for the B1G and the SEC to expand without each team agreeing to take less revenue. Those teams are set to make 80-100 million per year in 5-6 years. Other than ND, they are committed to the ACC through 2036, no team commands 80 million dollars in TV money. The B1G and the SEC are not going to expand even if they only break even. They need to get substantial revenue increases per team to go to 20 teams, otherwise it’s not worth dealing with the complexities of scheduling in a team league.

The ACC has a huge advantage over the Big 12, because they have their own Network. In 2026 the ACC revenue from ESPN goes up substantially, it’s not a flat rate amount per year for 20 years. The contract, like most contracts, is backloaded. The ACC will get a huge TV deal in 2036. They have 5 of the top 20 TV markets in the country. This is the best conference for us by far.

 

[jostar1]

It’s really difficult for the B1G and the SEC to expand without each team agreeing to take less revenue. Those teams are set to make 80-100 million per year in 5-6 years. Other than ND, they are committed to the ACC through 2036, no team commands 80 million dollars in TV money. The B1G and the SEC are not going to expand even if they only break even. They need to get substantial revenue increases per team to go to 20 teams, otherwise it’s not worth dealing with the complexities of scheduling in a team league.

The ACC has a huge advantage over the Big 12, because they have their own Network. In 2026 the ACC revenue from ESPN goes up substantially, it’s not a flat rate amount per year for 20 years. The contract, like most contracts, is backloaded. The ACC will get a huge TV deal in 2036. They have 5 of the top 20 TV markets in the country. This is the best conference for us by far.

Thanks for all of the info on the ACC. But they won't be inviting UConn.

 

[hank970]

Thanks for all of the info on the ACC. But they won't be inviting UConn.

It’s really difficult for the B1G and the SEC to expand without each team agreeing to take less revenue. Those teams are set to make 80-100 million per year in 5-6 years. Other than ND, they are committed to the ACC through 2036, no team commands 80 million dollars in TV money. The B1G and the SEC are not going to expand even if they only break even. They need to get substantial revenue increases per team to go to 20 teams, otherwise it’s not worth dealing with the complexities of scheduling in a team league.

The ACC has a huge advantage over the Big 12, because they have their own Network. In 2026 the ACC revenue from ESPN goes up substantially, it’s not a flat rate amount per year for 20 years. The contract, like most contracts, is backloaded. The ACC will get a huge TV deal in 2036. They have 5 of the top 20 TV markets in the country. This is the best conference for us by far.

Huge TV deal? By the time 2036 rolls around, a depleted ACC will be but a shadow of its former self, with an identity in name only. The markets and audiences they claim now will be dominated by the SEC and B1G. As always, the big ones eat the little ones.

 

[uconnyankee]

It’s really difficult for the B1G and the SEC to expand without each team agreeing to take less revenue. Those teams are set to make 80-100 million per year in 5-6 years. Other than ND, they are committed to the ACC through 2036, no team commands 80 million dollars in TV money. The B1G and the SEC are not going to expand even if they only break even. They need to get substantial revenue increases per team to go to 20 teams, otherwise it’s not worth dealing with the complexities of scheduling in a team league.

The ACC has a huge advantage over the Big 12, because they have their own Network. In 2026 the ACC revenue from ESPN goes up substantially, it’s not a flat rate amount per year for 20 years. The contract, like most contracts, is backloaded. The ACC will get a huge TV deal in 2036. They have 5 of the top 20 TV markets in the country. This is the best conference for us by far.

These are all really great points. If, in 2036 the ACC is granted a massive TV deal, and Uconn is invited, they should evaluate and act accordingly.

That’s in 13 years and who knows what the landscape would look like.

Are you really advocating that it’s in UConn’s best interest to wait, even turning down invite from Big12 should it be offered?

I really don’t see how that argument is made.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

The wild card in conference realignment is going to be what is determined for the CFP TV monies. That pot of dough could be so large that schools which aren't the biggest current tv valuations but have tremendous on-field performance/potential performance is the impetus for adding a school that otherwise couldn't drive enough value today for the SEC or Big10. We'll know more on that in the next year or so.

 

[NEforceUConn]

The wild card in conference realignment is going to be what is determined for the CFP TV monies. That pot of dough could be so large that schools which aren't the biggest current tv valuations but have tremendous on-field performance/potential performance is the impetus for adding a school that otherwise couldn't drive enough value today for the SEC or Big10. We'll know more on that in the next year or so.

Thanks for describing UConn football in 4 years. Cheers.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Thanks for describing UConn football in 4 years. Cheers.

Well, I was really describing other more prominent football schools but hopefully we continue showing our ultimate potential again this season under HCJM during his season 2.

 

[Stinger92860]

Thanks for describing UConn football in 4 years. Cheers.

If we are in the B12 and Mora is still the head coach in 4 years we will be in the mix for a B12 championship. Emphasis Note: In the mix

 

[BlueandOG]

We’re not in the NYC market. We’re in the Hartford market. That’s our problem and that’s why no conference has offered us. Our football has been terrible and that’s a big negative. We need to have a run like Cincinnati and UCF to draw interest.

You are wrong on each point in the post

 

[BlueandOG]

I’m being realistic, not getting my hopes up yet again for an invite that never seems to come. I was 100% opposed to leaving the AAC because I believe it put us in a really bad position to get an invite. We would have still won the national title last year coming out of the AAC. The Big East move did nothing for our hoops program and it destroyed our football program

I’m not sure you’re following the University of Connecticut.

 

[Patman]

I’m not sure you’re following the University of Connecticut.

I would say finishing last in the AAC would hurt more than the current situation.

 

[2UCONN04]

If the B12 offers UConn we go. We can worry about future expansion after. If further down the line it doesn’t seem like it’s working out then we can see what the other options are (ACC, etc) but it’s better to already be in B12, than to hope for a lifeline that may never come.

 

[HuskyHawk]

These are all really great points. If, in 2036 the ACC is granted a massive TV deal, and Uconn is invited, they should evaluate and act accordingly.

That’s in 13 years and who knows what the landscape would look like.

Are you really advocating that it’s in UConn’s best interest to wait, even turning down invite from Big12 should it be offered?

I really don’t see how that argument is made.

I stand by my prediction that no ACC school is going anywhere anytime soon. Meanwhile, the Big XII deal will come up again in a few years. So yes, we take any Big XII invite. I expect that ACC to raid the Big XII when the Big XII deal is up and use that to reopen negotiation on the contract. People keep saying the Big XII pays more, but it pays about the same, and the ACC deal goes up every year, so will pass the Big XII soon. WVU would switch in a heartbeat. Cinci would consider it, a lot of appeal to them to be with Louisville, Pitt and WVU. UCF would be thrilled but won't be offered.

If UConn wants to be in the mix when that happens, we need to be in the Big XII, and to be successful as a P5. That changes how we are perceived.

People predicting the ACC being picked apart aren't being realistic. Just because FSU and Clemson are whining doesn't mean the SEC would want them or that ESPN would pay more for content they have now. Might the B1G want UNC/UVA. Sure. Maybe. Will they wait more than a decade to expand? They can get Washington and Oregon tomorrow and probably again before the ACC GOR ends.

 

[Sea Goat]

It’s really difficult for the B1G and the SEC to expand without each team agreeing to take less revenue. Those teams are set to make 80-100 million per year in 5-6 years. Other than ND, they are committed to the ACC through 2036, no team commands 80 million dollars in TV money. The B1G and the SEC are not going to expand even if they only break even. They need to get substantial revenue increases per team to go to 20 teams, otherwise it’s not worth dealing with the complexities of scheduling in a team league.

The ACC has a huge advantage over the Big 12, because they have their own Network? In 2026 the ACC revenue from ESPN goes up substantially, it’s not a flat rate amount per year for 20 years. The contract, like most contracts, is backloaded. The ACC will get a huge TV deal in 2036. They have 5 of the top 20 TV markets in the country. This is the best conference for us by far.

If the ACC is so smart, why did they add two Northeastern duds, SU and BC. I know there was a lot of animosity regarding adding UConn, but you got the dregs with those two...