Big 12 could earn an additional $1 billion by expanding (Dodd)

[junglehusky]

What's more likely right now?

The Big 12 expands with UConn or the Big 12 expands without UConn?

Best possible outcome to me at this point is they don't expand.

I agree with the last sentence, but mostly because the downside of an AAC without Cincinnati is the worst case scenario for UConn for the next few years. B12 expanding without UConn is probably more likely than expanding with UConn, but not by a ginormous margin. If we're out, we'd be first one out.

Which would suck.

Anyone know if those UK betting markets where you can buy "stock" in election candidates is also doing B12 expansion?

 

[whaler11]

So, here's my take. Of course UConn and BYU won't save the Big12 in its current form in the event that Texas or Oklahoma want to seek greener pastures elsewhere.

However, how is it that when the ACC expands and takes Pitt, Cuse and Ville ESPN ponies up the money and the relationship is fine, but if the Big12 exercises the same thing and takes BYU and UConn they are screwing the media partner(s)?

From my understanding - ACC if they added teams could reopen the deal, and they ended up getting more per team than before. If the Big12 expands they don't get to reopen the deal, but everyone gets the same share and in addition there's a conference title game.

I absolutely understand what you are saying but have the recent numbers from espn changed that thought process that significantly?

Yes, the entire landscape has changed that quickly. For some reason ESPN didn't think they were going to lose subscribers this quickly. Looking at what they have spent it is like the concept of cord-cutting has never crossed their minds before 2015.

Also ESPN wanted the ACC to expand to protect their house brand - they worked together on it. If the Big 12 expands with AAC teams that severely damages a league where they do pretty well financially.

 

[djct1999]

Seriously, some of you are masochists. I think you really thrive in painting a worse case scenario for UConn athletics. The problem is you base this on mindless, misinformed tweets from hack internet writers who can't really get real journalism jobs. If you read between the lines, if you try to interpret the actions UConn has taken, not said, you will come to a very different conclusion. From the hire of our consultant Tranghese to Benedict to our latest hire Vic Cegles, UConn can't be more transparent. These hires weren't made with hope. They were made out of need. The need to negotiate Tier 3 rights, the need to have a Southwestern network of people, the need to fundraise of stadium expansion. Why? Not to look good to on paper but to fulfill certain expectations. Yes, that is what I am saying. UConn won't know its fate this week or next month. It has known its fate for some time and every hire since tells you that.

 

[businesslawyer]

If the Big 12 makes their media partners pay a billion dollars for schools they own for next to nothing - they would be digging their own grave. Fox and ESPN would spend the next decade doing everthing in their power to destroy everyone that forced them to spend that money.

I understand and don't mind your role as being the naysayer to unbridled optimism based on rumors. But you now seem to be going over the top challenging even things that make perfect sense just to be negative. Here, whatever network is offering the XII the right to expand and obtain a pro rata increase knows what they are doing. If they wanted to limit the pro rata increase to existing P5 teams -- if they thought it was in their interest to do so -- they would do so. For whatever reason, apparently they believe that even though they get UConn content against AAC opponents for free, they could recover $23M paid to UConn for UConn content as a Big XII member. You have no basis for challenging the rationality of that decision.

Likewise, in your next post, you say there is no benefit in the XII expanding if all the new money goes to new members and the existing members don't get an increase. That statement ignores the cardinal rule of non-profit institutions, which is that decisions will be made for the benefit of the paid staff who run the institution,as opposed to its members/beneficiaries. Whether it's a hospital or a temple or the American Bar Association, non-profits work all the time in the interests of the staff because decisions are more important to the staff than to anyone else.

I have been clear that I have no clue if the XII is expanding, and don't listen to any of the internet babble except when leaders of the XII or its members are quoted. But I don't get why you are now going beyond that and actually trying to ignore statements that appear to be actual facts when they don't fit your premise. That's just as silly.

 

[businesslawyer]

Yeah I'll just stop living in reality. Have you been paying attention to ESPN at all? They are going to be on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars and they will just brush it off and blame themselves?

No offense but you have no grasp of what happens when you screw someone who is supposed to be your partner.

Screwing ESPN would be expanding by taking Bethune Cookman and ULM. That is not what is going to happen. If there is expansion, it will be teams that Fox and ESPN considered as candidates in deciding they would pay more if the XII expanded.

Seriously my friend -- walk away for a moment. You seem determined now not to be negative in the face of irrational optimism, but just for the sake of being negative.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

I think its looking more and more likely that the B12 expands with UConn as one of the additions. With 4 new members taking reduced shares for a probationary period and the guaranteed $1B increase, the existing members are assured they can increase their payouts. Even without UT giving up LHN, the other 13 members could possibly still try to launch a conference network too.

 

[FASTEDDY]

Seriously, some of you are masochists. I think you really thrive in painting a worse case scenario for UConn athletics. The problem is you base this on mindless, misinformed tweets from hack internet writers who can't really get real journalism jobs. If you read between the lines, if you try to interpret the actions UConn has taken, not said, you will come to a very different conclusion. From the hire of our consultant Tranghese to Benedict to our latest hire Vic Cegles, UConn can't be more transparent. These hires weren't made with hope. They were made out of need. The need to negotiate Tier 3 rights, the need to have a Southwestern network of people, the need to fundraise of stadium expansion. Why? Not to look good to on paper but to fulfill certain expectations. Yes, that is what I am saying. UConn won't know its fate this week or next month. It has known its fate for some time and every hire since tells you that.

DJCT1999:

BRAVO Sir!

Excellent post and well stated & summarized.

I completely agree.

 

[Charley Horse]

Well their first choice is clearly no one.

Based on the comments if they relent it's anyone but UConn.

Not really. Have you read or seen all of Mike Perrin's comments in context?

If Texas ruled out anybody, it's the University of Houston. When asked specifically about UofH, he said "I would have to look at a complete package that is put before us," Perrin said. "Certainly we're in the Houston market. The Longhorn Network is there … I'm not sure where that would take us."

The Perrin comment that was interpreted as negative towards UConn by a Houston beat writer was this: 'It’s tough to play West Virginia a lot … would be tough to play someone similar like that.'

That could be interpreted to mean anything.

Maybe it's a gripe about the difficulty getting into Morgantown, WV.

Maybe it's a jab at WVU who promised the Big 12 they would donate money to expand the runway at a local regional airport but they never have.

Maybe it's a "let's not even think about expanding to Utah on top of West Virginia" comment.

Maybe it was intended to categorically dismiss the subject of expansion.

Who knows?

But I think it's impetuous to assume Texas has ruled out UConn.

I can see Texas ruling out Houston (no point), Memphis (no academics) and BYU (church school), but when and if anybody ever convinces Texas than expansion is the best and only alternative, I can envision Texas actually championing the addition of UConn for many reasons.

 

[Sea Goat]

Well this has been a $**% week. My back went out again. I fear I'm falling apart like a 3 dollar watch. Then, to add insult to injury, while laying supine on an ice pack, I grab the laptop and visit the Boneyard because that's what I do. What do I read? Not great stuff re: expansion, but worse than that; we are turning on ourselves. (I have been guilty of that, but will try to restrain myself today.) Here are a couple of observations about UConn's prospects. First, there is still optimism among some of UConn's most generous donors and it won't be touted at all. Second, and more importantly, for those who say no one is paying big money for any current G-5 school to join a P-5 conference; who really believes we are a G-5 school? If we truly are, then close this whole board down. However, if we are a P-5 worthy school, then trust that any media partner will see that. If we are more valuable than many current P-5 schools, don't you think media partners see that? We are the low hanging fruit in the expansion realm to boot!

Many of us have passionately argued on this board why we belong and frankly should have been taken before. Great arguments have been made based on undeniable facts. Has that changed? I don't think so. I know we all need balance between our competing personalities - are we pollyanna today? or chicken little? Some of both is expected and frankly needed. Although chicken little may have the edge today, things can and do change rapidly.

 

[nomar]

I have worked on deals worth hundreds of millions annually - I understand how to make deals and the reasons people make them.

For the last time, I'm not voting for you for President.

 

[whaler11]

Screwing ESPN would be expanding by taking Bethune Cookman and ULM. That is not what is going to happen. If there is expansion, it will be teams that Fox and ESPN considered as candidates in deciding they would pay more if the XII expanded.

Seriously my friend -- walk away for a moment. You seem determined now not to be negative in the face of irrational optimism, but just for the sake of being negative.

Wil do Biz - I disagree with you completely - but there is really no point in trying to discuss because if the Big 12 picked Cincinnati and UCF later today there would be a parade of posts saying it's because UConn turned them down because they have a secret Big 10 invite.

 

[The Funster]

First off, there is so much conflicting information floating no onw who does not have direct contact with an existing conference and media deal knows what is and isn't fact. Secondly, based on that, there isn't a single person who posts regularly on this bard who know what is going on so please post your opinion but stop well short of telling anyone you know better than anyone else. I can endure your silent scorn but the meesage board expert crap is mind numbing.

If the CBS report is true and the Big 12 can expand by up to 4 teams with a commensurate increase (and this is not the first time we've heard it) IMO, the Big 12 would be stupid not to opt for at least two more teams with one of them being UConn. I'm sorry, I cannot comprehend negotiating that kind of clause into a contract with the belief that the other party will never choose to take advantage of it and add more teams. Maybe the teams are negotiable, maybe there is more to the clause bt IMO to just dismiss the clause is kind of naive.

 

[noeynox]

Doesn't that just mean the new teams would get the $500 million or $1 billion. Unless the current teams get more - why would they care the 'Big 12' gets another billion?

Do these CBS sources claim it doesn't matter who these four schools are? UTSA? ULM? Anyone they add gets $23 million a year for a decade?

This really just means the new teams will have "buy in to the club". The new teams will never get a full share during the life of the current contract. That is how I see it anyway.

I look at this through my eyes being a uconn fan. Is uconn worth more than what espn pays them through the American conference? Hard to argue it is not. Is ESPN "screwing" uconn in this scenario? No, it's what the contract calls for. I see no way the Big 12 is screwing the espn if they choose to expand.

Now they could be using the threat of expansion as leverage. Give our current 10 teams an extra 250 million or we will expand and you give us 1 billion.

Makes sense to my non business mind.

 

[businesslawyer]

Wil do Biz - I disagree with you completely - but there is really no point in trying to discuss because if the Big 12 picked Cincinnati and UCF later today there would be a parade of posts saying it's because UConn turned them down because they have a secret Big 10 invite.

Did I say that you weren't fighting with people often irrational? No, in fact I said the opposite. But as you well know, making a statement like the one you just made -- which is probably true as to what some here would say -- doesn't change the fact that you've gone from tackling irrational pro-UConn statements to all potentially pro-UConn statements.

 

[Fairfield_1st]

...how is it that when the ACC expands and takes Pitt, Cuse and Ville ESPN ponies up the money and the relationship is fine, but if the Big12 exercises the same thing and takes BYU and UConn they are screwing the media partner(s)?

AMEN. Exactly what I was thinking as I read it. It's like putting a dog treat on your pet's nose but getting mad when he eats it.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

A sort of unrelated comment regarding adding say UConn and Cincinnati is that while those two (or any two) programs wouldn't prevent a Texas or Oklahoma from leaving, there's something to be said for elevating the status of programs preemptively as opposed to retroactively, when it doesn't affect your take home revenue.

If the non Texas and Oklahoma schools know they are stuck in the Big 12 for better or for worse, wouldn't it make sense to elevate the next best programs in G5 to P5, so that in the event in 10 years OU or UT leaves, you don't need to backfill with 4 G5 schools but only 2 and you have 2 established already.

Once you get into the higher league it just elevates your stature, regardless of where you were the day before. Look at cuse Rutgers bc and Pitt. Are they anything different than what they were 5 years ago? No except their league.

 

[Jimdish255]

The Texas comments indicate to me there is a concern that the research report will strongly support expansion and a B12 Network and weaken their bargaining position regarding LHN. Unfortunately attempts to reassert their clout may serve to galvanize a nervous majority concerned about their future.

 

[billybud]

What is not said as much about that monetary expansion for the conference...

....the media contract money is pro rata...so the conference gets more, but the individual schools do not.
....that new media money is for the added schools, not more per school.
....plus the P5 and bowl money gets split more ways...so less per school. (example..The $40 million for the Sugar Bowl split 12-14 ways instead of 10)

Teams entering would have to take a long term haircut to ensure that the ten teams stay at status quo.

The differential between the AAC and the Big 12 is probably well worth a new entrant giving up a largely portion of their earnings to be spread amongst the 10 existing schools...but that seems the only way that this will happen.