Big 12, ACC and perhaps some flawed strategy

[Fishy]

In talking to a couple of people today, it's pretty clear to me that Louisville did a very good job in selling themselves, but also in putting the fear of the Big 12 into some members of the ACC.

UConn is in a box and can be fetched whenever it's needed or ignored for an eternity if it's not. Geographically, Louisville is not - they are at least theoretically in the Big 12's wheelhouse.

So the ACC moves first and takes Louisville. Fine - perhaps that prevents the Big 12 from taking them.

Thinking about it, does that backfire on them? For the Big 12, the 'quick' road to expansion was Louisville. Now, the effort to poach Louisville is exactly the same as it is to poach Virginia Tech or Clemson or Florida State. Is that a good thing?

It's all a hypothetical, but the ACC might have been better served to leave Louisville out like a tethered goat to protect the rest of the village. Now, the first time they see the Big 12 stalking, they'll be inside the perimeter.

 

[ZooCougar]

Once FSU and company see how much more cash they can make elsewhere, they are gone, gone, gone. The Louisville thing is about them getting their way, that won't be enough for them long term.

 

[Brochacho]

Big XII can get Louisville, FSU, Miami, and Clemson whenever they want, in my opinion. I think if Virginia to the B1G happens then they may do it.

 

[Srqhusky]

In talking to a couple of people today, it's pretty clear to me that Louisville did a very good job in selling themselves, but also in putting the fear of the Big 12 into some members of the ACC.

UConn is in a box and can be fetched whenever it's needed or ignored for an eternity if it's not. Geographically, Louisville is not - they are at least theoretically in the Big 12's wheelhouse.

So the ACC moves first and takes Louisville. Fine - perhaps that prevents the Big 12 from taking them.

Thinking about it, does that backfire on them? For the Big 12, the 'quick' road to expansion was Louisville. Now, the effort to poach Louisville is exactly the same as it is to poach Virginia Tech or Clemson or Florida State. Is that a good thing?

It's all a hypothetical, but the ACC might have been better served to leave Louisville out like a tethered goat to protect the rest of the village. Now, the first time they see the Big 12 stalking, they'll be inside the perimeter.

I was thinking the same thin. Another reason I'm stumped about the move. The only thing Ivan think is that they r going to keep fsu and Clemson by winnin the lawsuit

 

[partial]

I was thinking the same thin. Another reason I'm stumped about the move. The only thing Ivan think is that they r going to keep fsu and Clemson by winnin the lawsuit

are you drunk?

 

[8893]

The ACC strategy with this move was one of appeasement. And as Churchill noted, an appeaser is one who feeds the crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.

 

[RS9999X]

Once FSU and company see how much more cash they can make elsewhere, they are gone, gone, gone. The Louisville thing is about them getting their way, that won't be enough for them long term.

I think Lousville was an obvious FSU choice and we don't know if that was a condition of FSU staying put whereas as UConn would put FSU and LU in play with the Big 12 as FSU sent out tire-kickers (media consultants) to pound the pavement while the Maryland case is moving forward.

Sucks. Let's add Gonzaga and Xavier, go back to 18 in basektball and move on.

 

[NEforceUConn]

Maybe trying to satisfy FSU is what happened to the ACC. However, I heard, before the vot,e that GT leaving would have set the ACC on fire. If the conference is that fragile then it will be gone in 6-9 months. Not sure what will set it ablaze but when there is money to be made by leaving we ALL know what will happen.

Bestend game is that UConn gets established with the ACC also rans -which isn't that bad after all.

ND is always the wildcard but they have never helped UConn- so Geno should tell them the next UConn vs ND womens BB game is actually between ND and UConn West Hartford branch

 

[Waquoit]

In talking to a couple of people today, it's pretty clear to me that Louisville did a very good job in selling themselves, but also in putting the fear of the Big 12 into some members of the ACC...

But what about us? Are we just totally duckked?

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Big XII can get Louisville, FSU, Miami, and Clemson whenever they want, in my opinion. I think if Virginia to the B1G happens then they may do it.

Correct on Louisville (at least until today) likely on Clemson, Miami may not even be part of the equation and FSU has been the prize the B-12 has wanted all along. Prior to the most recent round of expansion the B-12 felt that the schools who would jump immediately (primarily Louisville & Cincinnati) wouldn't add enough value to warrant cutting the pie into two more slices.

The fear that helped UL wasn't that they would lose out on them if the B-12 came calling but rather that if FSU wasn't pacified (with UL instead of UConn), they would then listen to the B-12's offer.

The ACC's failed strategy is that they took three shots at killing off the BE (Miami. VT, BC; Cuse, Pitt, ND) and none of them worked while passing on an alternative third (UConn & WVU a year ago) which would not only have worked, would quite possibly have given the conference more of a benefit in all sports than any other move could have (locking up basically the entire eastern seaboard, improving their assets in football and basketball, strengthening existing rivalries and building potential rivalries).

 

[whaler11]

Interesting point in Fishy's op.

I have disagreed all along about Florida State and Clemson to the Big 12.

I don't think either administration wants to end up in a league where it's even harder to be nationally relevant. I know the FSU fans and Jimbo Fisher think it would help... I think they should watch what WVU went through this year and realize it makes their life worse and not better. Had WVU been in the Big East this year they would be 11-1 at worst and headed to the BCS.

I really think that Clemson gets it. They continually get their asses kicked by South Carolina (maybe the fourth best team in the SEC and this year an injury depleted roster) and it's not like they can recruit better somewhere else. They get that they are better off with a top 15 roster and a weak schedule than a top 15 roster and schedule because they can't overcome 2 losses and there is no way they can play in the Big 12 and not lose twice.

Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Florida State, West Virginia, South Carolina - that is not a schedule Clemson will win 10 games against. Virginia, NCSU, UNC, Duke, Boston College - they can win 10 when they can win against.

This is why I'll believe FSU and Clemson go to the Big 12 when I see it.

 

[Chin Diesel]

In talking to a couple of people today, it's pretty clear to me that Louisville did a very good job in selling themselves, but also in putting the fear of the Big 12 into some members of the ACC.

UConn is in a box and can be fetched whenever it's needed or ignored for an eternity if it's not. Geographically, Louisville is not - they are at least theoretically in the Big 12's wheelhouse.

So the ACC moves first and takes Louisville. Fine - perhaps that prevents the Big 12 from taking them.

Thinking about it, does that backfire on them? For the Big 12, the 'quick' road to expansion was Louisville. Now, the effort to poach Louisville is exactly the same as it is to poach Virginia Tech or Clemson or Florida State. Is that a good thing?

It's all a hypothetical, but the ACC might have been better served to leave Louisville out like a tethered goat to protect the rest of the village. Now, the first time they see the Big 12 stalking, they'll be inside the perimeter.

This.

Uconn is to the ACC what ECU was for the BE. It can be had any time.

The optimist in me says the ACC had to grab L'ville before anyone else took them and Uconn can be had in five seconds if anyone else leaves.

In the meantime, we're fucvkeed.

 

[selles]

The ACC strategy with this move was one of appeasement. And as Churchill noted, an appeaser is one who feeds the crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.

You know, when I wasn't wailing and gnashing my teeth today, that's the thing that struck me, particularly once UVA, UNC, Duke and Wake were identified as our supporters. Was a time not long ago that Tobacco Road completely controlled the ACC. No longer. And once that fact really sinks in on Tobacco Road...I wouldn't bet on the ACC's survival.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

In talking to a couple of people today, it's pretty clear to me that Louisville did a very good job in selling themselves, but also in putting the fear of the Big 12 into some members of the ACC.

UConn is in a box and can be fetched whenever it's needed or ignored for an eternity if it's not. Geographically, Louisville is not - they are at least theoretically in the Big 12's wheelhouse.

So the ACC moves first and takes Louisville. Fine - perhaps that prevents the Big 12 from taking them.

Thinking about it, does that backfire on them? For the Big 12, the 'quick' road to expansion was Louisville. Now, the effort to poach Louisville is exactly the same as it is to poach Virginia Tech or Clemson or Florida State. Is that a good thing?

It's all a hypothetical, but the ACC might have been better served to leave Louisville out like a tethered goat to protect the rest of the village. Now, the first time they see the Big 12 stalking, they'll be inside the perimeter.

I think the whole thread missed Fishy's point.

If the ACC was really worried about the Big 12 expanding, why take Louisville? Wouldn't UNC, Duke and the rest of the schools outside FSU and Clemson be better off with a decent Louisville program that was cheap and available for the Big 12? Especially considering that one of the rumored reasons that Clemson and FSU didn't go to the Big 12 in the spring was because FSU wanted help on the exit fees. If Louisville was ready on a moment's notice to jump to the Big 12, would the Big 12 be that willing to help FSU out with its exit fees, which will probably be necessary to get FSU out of the ACC?

I think that rationale was either BS or just noise created by Jurich in what was a supreme sales job. It didn't make any sense, and if the ACC fell for it, they are incredibly stupid. In reality, I wouldn't be surprised if one of the reasons FSU and Clemson were so adamant about getting Louisville was that they didn't want a cheap Louisville available for the Big 12 as negotiating leverage against FSU and Clemson.

 

[Chin Diesel]

I think the whole thread missed Fishy's point.

If the ACC was really worried about the Big 12 expanding, why take Louisville? Wouldn't UNC, Duke and the rest of the schools outside FSU and Clemson be better off with a decent Louisville program that was cheap and available for the Big 12? Especially considering that one of the rumored reasons that Clemson and FSU didn't go to the Big 12 in the spring was because FSU wanted help on the exit fees. If Louisville was ready on a moment's notice to jump to the Big 12, would the Big 12 be that willing to help FSU out with its exit fees, which will probably be necessary to get FSU out of the ACC?

I think that rationale was either BS or just noise created by Jurich in what was a supreme sales job. It didn't make any sense, and if the ACC fell for it, they are incredibly stupid. In reality, I wouldn't be surprised if one of the reasons FSU and Clemson were so adamant about getting Louisville was that they didn't want a cheap Louisville available for the Big 12 as negotiating leverage against FSU and Clemson.

I'm with you in regards to it makes sense for many of the ACC schools to take L'ville out of play for the B12.

It was a reactionary move and it's sole purpose was to remove risk or an unknown player down the road.

As I said in my post Uconn is always available on a moments notice and isn't perceived by anyone as a threat to go to another conference.

Regardless of motives as to why the ACC took L'ville (and I'm pretty sure school with opposing motives voted in L'ville for different reasons), enough of the presidents felt that L'ville was placated by the move and isn't looking to jump ship again any time soon.

 

[Fishy]

I'm with you in regards to it makes sense for many of the ACC schools to take L'ville out of play for the B12.

It was a reactionary move and it's sole purpose was to remove risk or an unknown player down the road..

Nelson got the point I was trying to make.

If Louisville is left out and they're a cheap acquisition for the Big 12, perhaps that entices the Big 12 to swallow them instead of preying on the ACC.

Now, UL is just as expensive as Florida State....well, if bologna and lobster both cost the same, you're gonna buy the lobster.

As the flip side of my theory, perhaps Florida State had a vested interest in making sure there weren't any cheap alternatives should the Big 12 starting hunting.

 

[selles]

Nelson got the point I was trying to make.

If Louisville is left out and they're a cheap acquisition for the Big 12, perhaps that entices the Big 12 to swallow them instead of preying on the ACC.

Now, UL is just as expensive as Florida State....well, if bologna and lobster both cost the same, you're gonna buy the lobster.

As the flip side of my theory, perhaps Florida State had a vested interest in making sure there weren't any cheap alternatives should the Big 12 starting hunting.

Yeah, but if you buy into the 4 16 team superconference thing then it's not an issue of whether the Big 12 will prey on the ACC, it's a life and death struggle between the Big 12 and the ACC. In that context, if you're the ACC, you do whatever you can to grab the bologna in the hope that you can use it to feed your lobster and keep it happy so that it will stay home. You don't leave it sitting out on your doorstep so that someone else can use it to entice your lobster away.

Not saying the strategy will work for the ACC, I think it will fail miserably. But I do think that's what happened.

 

[whaler11]

Nelson got the point I was trying to make.

If Louisville is left out and they're a cheap acquisition for the Big 12, perhaps that entices the Big 12 to swallow them instead of preying on the ACC.

Now, UL is just as expensive as Florida State....well, if bologna and lobster both cost the same, you're gonna buy the lobster.

As the flip side of my theory, perhaps Florida State had a vested interest in making sure there weren't any cheap alternatives should the Big 12 starting hunting.

Yep both sides of your coin work.

I still think the administration at FSU doesn't think like their fanbase and they really don't want to leave.

I know Waylon thinks the Big 12 rebuffed FSU and Clemson - I think it's the opposite. I can't wrap my head around the idea that the Big 12 wouldn't take FSU and Clemson. They took West Virginia. On what planet would you choose West Virginia but not Florida State.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Nelson got the point I was trying to make.

If Louisville is left out and they're a cheap acquisition for the Big 12, perhaps that entices the Big 12 to swallow them instead of preying on the ACC.

Now, UL is just as expensive as Florida State....well, if bologna and lobster both cost the same, you're gonna buy the lobster.

As the flip side of my theory, perhaps Florida State had a vested interest in making sure there weren't any cheap alternatives should the Big 12 starting hunting.

The reason why they took UL is that they need to get to 16 eventually, and there are only three viable programs in the country that they can add. They are locked in. So they took the one of the three they thought was most at risk.

The MD and RU move cost them both a school and a replacement school. The inventory is way down. It could backfire as you suggest, but that will unleash a feeding frenzy.

 

[Waquoit]

I think the bottom line is that there is no respect out there for UConn. We hung out with them for awhile, but we were never truly one of them. We are just part of the Other.

 

[mattp]

I was thinking the same thin. Another reason I'm stumped about the move. The only thing Ivan think is that they r going to keep fsu and Clemson by winnin the lawsuit

The good news is that I think if you look at all of the more recent court cases they tend to side with the school. At the end of the day you can't force someone to be in a group or association they don't want to be in. Hitting them for $5m to compensate for effects of scheduling and logistics is one thing, $50m could be considered prohibitive and since Maryland voted against it I think they'll end up settling for much less. I think FSU will end up leaving regardless because they're making way less than they should be in the ACC, they just want to find out what the price tag will be.

 

[Vuce]

That is true Waq. If this was about hoops then we are in somewhere in the first go around. But given that this is about good ole boy football, we are looked at much differently. Uconn has been better in football than anyone could have imagined - remember, when we moved up there were tons of people saying it would take 15 to 20 years to get really competitive. We have more than held our own against our peers in this conference. Still, the perception is one we can't change unless we keep winning.

 

[mattp]

Yeah, but if you buy into the 4 16 team superconference thing then it's not an issue of whether the Big 12 will prey on the ACC, it's a life and death struggle between the Big 12 and the ACC. In that context, if you're the ACC, you do whatever you can to grab the bologna in the hope that you can use it to feed your lobster and keep it happy so that it will stay home. You don't leave it sitting out on your doorstep so that someone else can use it to entice your lobster away.

Not saying the strategy will work for the ACC, I think it will fail miserably. But I do think that's what happened.

Lobsters don't eat bologna, so unless adding Louisville will directly increase FSU's revenues, they'll still leave. I imagine if the brilliant minds in the ACC thought Louisville could improve their bottom line simply by adding them, they'd have added them years ago, so presumably they don't.

From my understanding FSU's biggest gripe is that they're giving up a lot more of their broadcasting rights than they would in the B12. A few million bucks a year on a TV deal isn't as big a deal to them as the extra rights they're giving up. By allowing schools to keep those extra rights the B12 is attracting schools that can make a lot of money on those, so in a sense they're a more capitalistic conference than the ACC, which is why FSU is getting short changed. The ACC is socialist as the wealthier public schools subsidize the smaller market private schools. Lobsters and socialism, I think I need to step away from this crap for a while because I'm starting to sound like a crazy person.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Did some more thinking about the tethered goat idea. Here's my picture of the ACC view of the world.

1. ND all in is the endgame. That's their ticket to stability and money. They need to survive that long.

2. The View Before: 14 teams + ND.
The Need: one more quality team in waiting to join with ND
The inventory, by relative rating of desireability: RU: A UConn: A-1 UL: B/B+ Cinci: C USF/UCF: D Temple/ECU/UMass: F

3. The View After: 13 teams +ND
The Need: one team now, one quality team in waiting to join with ND
The inventory, by relative rating of desireability: UConn: A-1 *UL: B/B+ Cinci: C USF/UCF: D Temple/ECU/UMass: F

* Louisville convinced ACC that they were at risk to moving to the Big 12. Cinci may even have been viewed as at risk.

So the ACC sees these potential situations:

UConn now, Cinci or USF/UCF later
UL now, UConn later.

This could backfire if the Big 12 comes calling, as Fishy suggests. But no matter what, if they didn't take Louisville now, their view is that they may be stuck with Cinci or even USF/UCF. They need two teams. They are trying to get the best two teams. But this is so fragile. Should they lose anybody else, or lose the chance to add UConn, they are forced to dip down to teams that they probably find unacceptable. It's a gamble to be one of the survivors.

So for UConn the situation is to hope ND joins for fb when the NBC deal is up, or to hope that the B1G really wants to lock down the northeast (any combination of UConn, BC, Syracuse or Pitt), or for the Big 12 to go after the football properties in FSU and/or Clemson, or the SEC to poach schools from NC and VA.

 

[The Funster]

In talking to a couple of people today, it's pretty clear to me that Louisville did a very good job in selling themselves, but also in putting the fear of the Big 12 into some members of the ACC.

UConn is in a box and can be fetched whenever it's needed or ignored for an eternity if it's not. Geographically, Louisville is not - they are at least theoretically in the Big 12's wheelhouse.

So the ACC moves first and takes Louisville. Fine - perhaps that prevents the Big 12 from taking them.

Thinking about it, does that backfire on them? For the Big 12, the 'quick' road to expansion was Louisville. Now, the effort to poach Louisville is exactly the same as it is to poach Virginia Tech or Clemson or Florida State. Is that a good thing?

It's all a hypothetical, but the ACC might have been better served to leave Louisville out like a tethered goat to protect the rest of the village. Now, the first time they see the Big 12 stalking, they'll be inside the perimeter.

Committees can't make decisions as well as an individual. This is why the ACC will flounder. Delany would have gone to his schools and said, "This is the school we're going to invite and this is why.", and everyone would have fallen into line and the school would have been invited. Instead the ACC bandies names about and goes about selecting a school by committee with no consistent criteria and no long term plan that the selection falls within. As Chin said, it was a reactionary move and it was one to placate individual members rather than a move within a longt term plan.

You make an excellent point about leaving Louisville out there but if Tex and OU stay in the Big 12, the Big 12 will get who they want no matter what.