DefenseBB
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So, unlike the SEC, I don't really have any concrete idea on this conference for the top teams.
The only thing I do feel certain about is USC is by far the best team in the conference. Second is probably Michigan, which I know is a lot of people's darlings due to their "sophomore class" and the close game with UConn from November 2024. I watched this team a lot this past year and I do like them BUT I think they have more "unfulfilled promise" than actual projectable success. This team is still lacking size and skill in the front court. I still think the PG is suspect to poor decisions and turnovers so their ceiling is the Elite 8 and probable #2 or #3 in the Big 10, but I am looking forward to those who have stat observations to correct me.
After these two, I would group Washington who is similar in their "media darling" standing that they too are not nearly as good as many are projecting for next year. They are a good squad, with talent but even adding Trygger has me suspect on how this team will repeat their success this year. This year they were the "hunter" and next year, they will be the "hunted" which is a different set of rules and game plan. They were able to take many teams by surprise, I am not sure that will be the case next year, I actually like this team but have a skeptic eye on them.
Iowa seems to know who they want in the portal and I like what they added to their core. After them, I would put tOSU, Minn, Maryland, Mich State and Illinois grouped together for any variety of reasons. tOSU has been quiet but McGuff has a core team returning. Minn is sort of like Wash who over-achieved this past year, taking many people by surprise which again, next year will not be the situation. I know they added 6'6" Merkle and a few other nice additions but this team is still woefully non-athletic and slow. They may do well in the Big10 but will struggle against top 10 teams. Maryland is keeping many of their key pieces despite losing some good players to the portal (which seems to be an annual rite of passage). If I have learned anything is Brenda is resourceful and will field a very competitive team. Mich State faded at the end last year losing their last two Big 10 games, squeaking by Colorado State in 1st round 65-62 before losing to Oklahoma 77-71. They lost players to the portal which is concerning but I do think Robin can coach so I will give her the benefit of the doubt here. Illinois is another team that seems to overachieve so despite a "Lack of star players" I do believe Shauna Green can coach and succeed.
Next up will be UCLA who as the defending NCAA Champion lost the bulk of their team to graduation. They return younger Betts and have added some nice portal pieces that could put them in the top 8 in the Big 10 but I am just not sure enough of that for this projection. I put UCLA with Indiana as two team that I think could be really good but again could both struggle. Indiana is adding HS talent and some portal help, which they desperately needed.
Nebraska and Oregon are also two teams I am not sure what to make of their rosters and how well they can or can't compete. What I do know is they are better than Wisconsin, Northwestern, Rutgers, Penn State and Purdue. Wisconsin is in year 2 of the seemingly perennial effort to get relevant, Rutgers, PSU and Northwestern are all in year 1 of a new coach and Purdue should have a new coach but was reluctant and will continue to be a bottom feeder.
But as I said, I am significantly less confident in this conference than the SEC as I see one Elite team-USC Trojans , 1 really good team in Michigan and then a bunch of probably pretty good teams in Washington, Minn, Iowa, tOSU, MD, MSU, UCLA, Illinois, Oregon and maybe Nebraska. They then have some really bad teams like Northwestern, PSU, Purdue and Rutgers. Where Wisconsin fits is curious to me.
The only thing I do feel certain about is USC is by far the best team in the conference. Second is probably Michigan, which I know is a lot of people's darlings due to their "sophomore class" and the close game with UConn from November 2024. I watched this team a lot this past year and I do like them BUT I think they have more "unfulfilled promise" than actual projectable success. This team is still lacking size and skill in the front court. I still think the PG is suspect to poor decisions and turnovers so their ceiling is the Elite 8 and probable #2 or #3 in the Big 10, but I am looking forward to those who have stat observations to correct me.
After these two, I would group Washington who is similar in their "media darling" standing that they too are not nearly as good as many are projecting for next year. They are a good squad, with talent but even adding Trygger has me suspect on how this team will repeat their success this year. This year they were the "hunter" and next year, they will be the "hunted" which is a different set of rules and game plan. They were able to take many teams by surprise, I am not sure that will be the case next year, I actually like this team but have a skeptic eye on them.
Iowa seems to know who they want in the portal and I like what they added to their core. After them, I would put tOSU, Minn, Maryland, Mich State and Illinois grouped together for any variety of reasons. tOSU has been quiet but McGuff has a core team returning. Minn is sort of like Wash who over-achieved this past year, taking many people by surprise which again, next year will not be the situation. I know they added 6'6" Merkle and a few other nice additions but this team is still woefully non-athletic and slow. They may do well in the Big10 but will struggle against top 10 teams. Maryland is keeping many of their key pieces despite losing some good players to the portal (which seems to be an annual rite of passage). If I have learned anything is Brenda is resourceful and will field a very competitive team. Mich State faded at the end last year losing their last two Big 10 games, squeaking by Colorado State in 1st round 65-62 before losing to Oklahoma 77-71. They lost players to the portal which is concerning but I do think Robin can coach so I will give her the benefit of the doubt here. Illinois is another team that seems to overachieve so despite a "Lack of star players" I do believe Shauna Green can coach and succeed.
Next up will be UCLA who as the defending NCAA Champion lost the bulk of their team to graduation. They return younger Betts and have added some nice portal pieces that could put them in the top 8 in the Big 10 but I am just not sure enough of that for this projection. I put UCLA with Indiana as two team that I think could be really good but again could both struggle. Indiana is adding HS talent and some portal help, which they desperately needed.
Nebraska and Oregon are also two teams I am not sure what to make of their rosters and how well they can or can't compete. What I do know is they are better than Wisconsin, Northwestern, Rutgers, Penn State and Purdue. Wisconsin is in year 2 of the seemingly perennial effort to get relevant, Rutgers, PSU and Northwestern are all in year 1 of a new coach and Purdue should have a new coach but was reluctant and will continue to be a bottom feeder.
But as I said, I am significantly less confident in this conference than the SEC as I see one Elite team-USC Trojans , 1 really good team in Michigan and then a bunch of probably pretty good teams in Washington, Minn, Iowa, tOSU, MD, MSU, UCLA, Illinois, Oregon and maybe Nebraska. They then have some really bad teams like Northwestern, PSU, Purdue and Rutgers. Where Wisconsin fits is curious to me.