Betts and Price To Dodgers

[the Q]

Was there any real intention on Betts' part to remain in Boston?

Saw a Sporting News write up that gave Boston a D for the trade, without even a passing mention of what they got back or David Price, or if Betts could be signed. Only that the Red Sox could pay him what he might get in free agency and are choosing not to.

The other thing about those other guys mentioned. The Angels, Padres, Phillies, and Mariners (Cano) don't appear to be ready to contend. Too much is tied up in one player.

the Phillies problems were the wasted money elsewhere.

arrietta
Cutch
Robertson
Jay Bruce

 

[methodology]

Was there any real intention on Betts' part to remain in Boston?

Saw a Sporting News write up that gave Boston a D for the trade, without even a passing mention of what they got back or David Price, or if Betts could be signed. Only that the Red Sox could pay him what he might get in free agency and are choosing not to.

The other thing about those other guys mentioned. The Angels, Padres, Phillies, and Mariners (Cano) don't appear to be ready to contend. Too much is tied up in one player.

Seems the past 2 offseasons Betts and the red Sox were $100 mil apart on contract talks. Doesn't seem like they were going to pony up his asking price

 

[Husky25]

Seems the past 2 offseasons Betts and the red Sox were $100 mil apart on contract talks. Doesn't seem like they were going to pony up his asking price

Could Betts' asking price be out of line?

The Sox offered $300M over 10 years. According to Lou Merloni, Betts wanted a longer term at a higher AAV. An equal term at his desired AAV removes 70% of the delta. On the other hand, It is already a stretch (somewhat palatable perhaps, but still) that Betts would earn $20M, let alone $30M at ages 35-37. It's outlandish to think he would earn $35M/year up through age 39.

 

[methodology]

Could Betts' asking price be out of line?

The Sox offered $300M over 10 years. According to Lou Merloni, Betts wanted a longer term at a higher AAV. An equal term at his desired AAV removes 70% of the delta. On the other hand, It is already a stretch (somewhat palatable perhaps, but still) that Betts would earn $20M, let alone $30M at ages 35-37. It's outlandish to think he would earn $35M/year up through age 39.

He wanted 10/300 last year they offered 10/200 then this year they offered 10/300 and he wanted 12/420. The market was already set with trout, Harper and Machado. Betts is right in line. The Sox have fallen short at every point in contact talks.

Mookie is 7th all time in WAR (42) through his first 6 seasons. He hasn't been worth less than $38 mil a year since rookie season and had a high of $83.2. He's been worth almost $50 mil/ season when including his rookie year

 

[Husky25]

He wanted 10/300 last year they offered 10/200 then this year they offered 10/300 and he wanted 12/420. The market was already set with trout, Harper and Machado. Betts is right in line. The Sox have fallen short at every point in contact talks.

Mookie is 7th all time in WAR (42) through his first 6 seasons. He hasn't been worth less than $38 mil a year since rookie season and had a high of $83.2. He's been worth almost $50 mil/ season when including his rookie year

There are a few things at play here. IIRC, the $200/10yr offer was just prior to the arbitration ruling where Betts was granted $20M anyway. I'm inclined to call that the Red Sox opening salvo, but then he moves the goalpost significantly in both length and dollars when they approach his original demand.

Markets are not set in a vacuum. If they were, the BBWAA would be obligated going forward to induct anyone similar to Harold Baines because the Veteran's Committee screwed the pooch.

Re: WAR...For comparison purposes, Trout's WAR through 6 seasons was 47.5 and he was top 2 MVP vote getter in 5 of them, winning twice and one more after he signed for $35M per, up to 40 years old. a) What does this look like after Trout's age 34 or 36 season, assuming no PED's are in play? b) If Trout set Mookie's market and using WAR as a constant, the cross multiplication property puts Betts' AAV at $30.1M.

Finally, as an organization, the Red Sox already shot the moon (World Series victory) successfully, using Betts as a 9 or a 10, and are 26 points ahead. Other teams need him to be the Ace just to catch up.

Sports fandom (particularly professional) is irrational. Most root for laundry rather the human beings wearing it. I like Betts and he should get everything he is looking for. That said and as someone who understands that professional sports is not merely a game, I don't think any one organization in particular should be obligated to pay it to their (real or perceived) detriment.

 

[the Q]

There are a few things at play here. IIRC, the $200/10yr offer was just prior to the arbitration ruling where Betts was granted $20M anyway. I'm inclined to call that the Red Sox opening salvo, but then he moves the goalpost significantly in both length and dollars when they approach his original demand.

Markets are not set in a vacuum. If they were, the BBWAA would be obligated going forward to induct anyone similar to Harold Baines because the Veteran's Committee screwed the pooch.

Re: WAR...For comparison purposes, Trout's WAR through 6 seasons was 47.5 and he was top 2 MVP vote getter in 5 of them, winning twice and one more after he signed for $35M per, up to 40 years old. a) What does this look like after Trout's age 34 or 36 season, assuming no PED's are in play? b) If Trout set Mookie's market and using WAR as a constant, the cross multiplication property puts Betts' AAV at $30.1M.

Finally, as an organization, the Red Sox already shot the moon (World Series victory) successfully, using Betts as a 9 or a 10, and are 26 points ahead. Other teams need him to be the Ace just to catch up.

Sports fandom (particularly professional) is irrational. Most root for laundry rather the human beings wearing it. I like Betts and he should get everything he is looking for. That said and as someone who understands that professional sports is not merely a game, I don't think any one organization in particular should be obligated to pay it to their (real or perceived) detriment.

red Sox would’ve signed up for 30m per year. I still think 8/280 (35m per year) would’ve been fine.

 

[Husky25]

red Sox would’ve signed up for 30m per year. I still think 8/280 (35m per year) would’ve been fine.

I could have seen that. Could have also seen if J.D. didn't exercise his player option that they wouldn't have ponied up Mookie's money. Don't think they could have done both and still reset their luxury threshold penalties.

 

[the Q]

I could have seen that. Could have also seen if J.D. didn't exercise his player option that they wouldn't have ponied up Mookie's money. Don't think they could have done both and still reset their luxury threshold penalties.

jd hurt the tax issue.

I don’t think he swayed them either way about paying mookie for 12 hears

if jd opted out they could’ve just non tenderer Bradley and gotten under I think. Or at least very close and could’ve made another salary dump to make it work

 

[Husky25]

jd hurt the tax issue.

I don’t think he swayed them either way about paying mookie for 12 hears

if jd opted out they could’ve just non tenderer Bradley and gotten under I think. Or at least very close and could’ve made another salary dump to make it work

I agree that paying until 40 years old was probably the non-starter.

 

[the Q]

I agree that paying until 40 years old was probably the non-starter.

that was why I landed on 8/280. He gets his 35m per year and the Sox only pay for a few years of downturn where he still could be useful.

 

[the Q]

Just be happy the Sox aren’t the warriors right now...

 

[UConnSean]

Just be happy the Sox aren’t the warriors right now...

Why? The Warriors made the finals the last 5 seasons and won 3 titles. Yea they are a bottom of the barrel lottery team this season but that is without two all-NBA talents. They are primed pretty well for the future imo. Klay and Steph return, and they have the picks/flexibility to be aggressive in the next couple of offseasons. Warriors ownership has proven they are not afraid to spend and as an added bonus, I believe they were able to dip under the luxury tax line this season with these recent trades (to reset penalties as repeat offenders). Bob Myers and the front office have always had a plan and seemingly have been good at executing it. I would want that front office running my favorite team any day of the week. As a bonus, they acquired 5 second rounders and a first, to go along with their own picks (should be top of board), and they have a $17m trade exemption from the Iguadola trade. That equals a lot of flexibility and room to replenish the cabinet surrounding Klay Steph and Draymond for 2020-2021

 

[the Q]

Why? The Warriors made the finals the last 5 seasons and won 3 titles. Yea they are a bottom of the barrel lottery team this season but that is without two all-NBA talents. They are primed pretty well for the future imo. Klay and Steph return, and they have the picks/flexibility to be aggressive in the next couple of offseasons. Warriors ownership has proven they are not afraid to spend and as an added bonus, I believe they were able to dip under the luxury tax line this season with these recent trades (to reset penalties as repeat offenders). Bob Myers and the front office have always had a plan and seemingly have been good at executing it. I would want that front office running my favorite team any day of the week. As a bonus, they acquired 5 second rounders and a first, to go along with their own picks (should be top of board), and they have a $17m trade exemption from the Iguadola trade. That equals a lot of flexibility and room to replenish the cabinet surrounding Klay Steph and Draymond for 2020-2021

mostly because they traded their best Healthy asset and got back one of the worst contracts in the entire NBA.

 

[the Q]

Why? The Warriors made the finals the last 5 seasons and won 3 titles. Yea they are a bottom of the barrel lottery team this season but that is without two all-NBA talents. They are primed pretty well for the future imo. Klay and Steph return, and they have the picks/flexibility to be aggressive in the next couple of offseasons. Warriors ownership has proven they are not afraid to spend and as an added bonus, I believe they were able to dip under the luxury tax line this season with these recent trades (to reset penalties as repeat offenders). Bob Myers and the front office have always had a plan and seemingly have been good at executing it. I would want that front office running my favorite team any day of the week. As a bonus, they acquired 5 second rounders and a first, to go along with their own picks (should be top of board), and they have a $17m trade exemption from the Iguadola trade. That equals a lot of flexibility and room to replenish the cabinet surrounding Klay Steph and Draymond for 2020-2021

I agree that the warriors will likely be ok for the next few years. Although they picked the wrong year to suck. This is probably the worst draft since the 2000 Kenyon Martin draft

 

[Palatine]

LOL. The MLBPA is complaining that the players are in limbo. . They're in limbo for a couple of days while they make millions of dollars. Amazing how out of touch these morons can be.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Wasn't Boston's highest reported offer 10 year 300 million????? Betts should be getting closer to the Trout 430 number and he knows it. Machado and Harper just got 300/330 respectively. I think we can all agree Betts is far better (and younger!!) than those two. Boston's offer was big enough to be considered a 'legit' offer I guess you could argue, but low enough that they should have known Betts would decline it. Seems like a low ball and there wasn't any real intention for Boston to retain Betts

And that's all he's worth. He's not as good as Trout. Angels will never win even paying Trout that money. You can go high annual value or long term, but shouldn't do both. Not for any player.

Sox did the right thing, getting a young OF who should start in RF for several years and who has a Dwight Evans caliber arm (and similar offensive abilities). They still need to pay Devers, who is critical due to scarcity of talent at 3B across MLB. This will let them do that once the cap resets. Pedroia's contract comes off the books after this season, Price's is gone/halved, and I think Castillo will finally be done as well.

Bloom is here to run the Sox like the Rays with 3X the budget. They were 12 games ahead of Boston with a $65M payroll last year. They do it by trading guys for prospects and reloading. Boston can keep some, but will need to trade some too.