Betting the Over/Under. . .

[Kibitzer]

. . . is a common football bet, in which case the better places a wager based on a number established as part of "The Line" on a given game. This number is "total points" to be scored by both teams. Bet either "under" (they won't score that many) or the "over" (they will exceed it).

Let's consider a local variation. UConn is playing four games in five days. Two down, two tto go. I think they have scored 210 so far (114 + 96, right?). So how would you bet (UConn only) if the over/under for these four games was set at 400?

Put another way, will UConn score 400 points in these four games, Yes or No.

Please, no argments about outliers.

 

[msf22b]

No: fatigue, experimentation, walk-ons, not important

 

[ed4ourgirls]

Average 95 points over the next two games?

No - I'll take the under.

 

[UcMiami]

Yup - under. Though I think BU might be the best team they will play in this three game spread, I don't think they top 190 today and tomorrow. It might get close, but Geno used a lot of pressure last night to get the offense into rhythm at the start of both halves and I don't think that will be needed as I imagine this morning it might be a subject of discussion at walk-around.

In the game thread there were concerns about Uconn starting slow in games and in 2nd halves - I think this is a fall-out from the injuries - with the short bench, Uconn has been less attacking on defense to minimize fatigue and fouls and I think that mind set is hard to keep from creeping into the offense - passive one end and aggressive on the other takes a split personality and Uconn players are too well adjusted to have such problems.

 

[Phil]

Under, easily. Oregon was a special situation.

 

[reno tony]

Smart money is against the public..... I'll take the Over.

 

[rford53]

under. They will ease up and play Polly and TLaw more minutes and limit second half scoring.

 

[tomcat]

Under for all the reasons above. I'm guessing they average 87, maybe 90.

 

[UcMiami]

Can I change my bet!!! Only 90 to go and playing the walk-ons can't slow the scoring enough!
So I wonder how Geno plays it tomorrow - 4th game in five days so maybe a little rest, but they have a week off after the game so maybe he pushes them hard.

 

[Kibitzer]

After three games, the UConn total is 310 points. If they score 91 or more in today's game vs. the Bonnies, those who bet the Over are winners. OTOH, if they score 89 or fewer, those who bet the Under are winners.

Ahem, a pretty good job of handicapping. But I guess that since I am fully qualified for such a task I should get it right.

 

[reno tony]

Now that just wasn't fair. Was I the only one that didn't get the memo that Geno had a bet on the under?

 

[Icebear]

Now that just wasn't fair. Was I the only one that didn't get the memo that Geno had a bet on the under?

You notice I didn't have a bet, it would have been unfair to take advantage of Geno's email. It was basically a repeat of his Diana comment. "Who can keep this team under 100? Geno. "

 

[Kibitzer]

Five days, four games/wins, 398 points. Those who "bet" the Under (>400) won, narrowly.

Maybe we can try variations of this Over/Under handicapping/betting again for upcoming games/tournaments. Fun to do and not nearly so costly as the real thing with your local bookie.

Consider, for example, over/under total points/points by UConn/points allowed, etc., as well as point spread or Daddy Choc's reliable score predictions. All in Boneyard fun.

New ideas/concepts welcome. I am inclined to quit while I am ahead, so to speak.

And good luck to all Boneyard bettors.