I usually do 2-3 personal bracketologies in the lead-up to the Madness. Perhaps it’s time for my first exercise!
Just did my first one! Landed UConn in a pretty tough spot. 5 seed (19th on S-curve, very generous to UConn if Bracketmatrix is any indication of current trends, but I never said I didn’t have biases) in the East region (yes, Duke as the 1) playing first two rounds in Denver with a pod that looks like this:
5. UConn (19)
12. George Mason (48)
4. Kentucky (13)
13. Grand Canyon (52)
Here’s how I broke down the top 16 seeds and opening weekend sites - the aggrandizing of the B1G and the SEC has made this whole thing pretty damn hard:
South
1. Auburn (1) - Lexington
4. Texas Tech (14) - Denver
3. Texas A&M (9) - Wichita
2. Purdue (8) - Cleveland
East
1. Duke (2) - Raleigh
4. Kentucky (13) - Denver
3. Kansas (10) - Milwaukee
2. Florida (7) - Cleveland
Midwest
1. Houston (3) - Wichita
4. St. John’s (15) - Seattle
3. Michigan State (11) - Providence
2. Tennessee (6) - Raleigh
West
1. Alabama (4) - Lexington
4. Wisconsin (16) - Seattle
3. Marquette (12) - Providence
2. Iowa State (5) - Milwaukee
Couple of short notes from going through this:
- what I fear could play out did play out here, where teams from the gluttonous “mega conferences” snapped up Providence before a local team (St. John’s in this case) even came up on the S-curve. Screwed Marquette out of Cleveland or Wichita, too - I assume they’d pick Providence over Denver.
- the sites are real bad this year. Nothing south of Raleigh/Lexington when we’ve got so many good SEC teams that could use a Dallas/Bham/Orlando type location. Unless Oregon pushes hard, 15/16 on the s-curve are all but guaranteed to land in Seattle.
- there is definitely room to move up for UConn, but our metrics aren’t doing us any favors. I was surprised to also see St. John’s and Marquette lagging in those departments. Short of something insane like winning out, it’s hard for me to see us getting above a 4, even with only 2ish more losses the rest of the way.
- I’ll say straight now what I said between the lines a couple times above: effffff these oversized conferences that are just getting high on their own supply. It impacted the top 16 pretty heavily and all the way down the bracket. My full projection had two instances of 2 SEC teams in the same pod, and it took some gymnastics to avoid one situation of it with the B1G. Thank god the 18-team ACC is so bad they aren’t factoring into these issues, too.