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Best Programs of the Modern Era

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To me, it doesn't reward the first round win or the championship win specifically, it's simply a way to calculate performance. The champion's performance is worth seven times as much as the performance of the team eliminated in the first round. What you want would be something like redefining a scoring title by considering, somehow, things like shot difficulty, game pressure, and such. Surely a game winner should be worth more than a shot at the 5 min. mark of the first half.
First, and most importantly, thanks for putting this together. We can all debate the weightings but I appreciate your work and starting the discussion.

That said, I think the analogy to the scoring a basket is a false one. The quality of the teams increase as you progress through the tournament. It's reasonable for other posters to suggest that weighting them higher makes sense.
 
Maybe you could multiply the "value" of each year based on seeding, like a 1 seed who wins to the championship gets 64, while a 2 seed gets multiplied by say 1.1 and is worth roughly 70, 3 seed 1.2 for 77, 3 seed 1.3 for 83, and so on
 
I think it's fair to be behind the other four programs since we got a late start - and even after 1990 we have six zeroes in years we didn't make it at all. Maybe the gap should be closer with a heavier reward for a title, but the math does give some insight into how we're a bit behind the top four when it comes to consistent deep runs. And Duke has four ships and UNC and Kentucky have three in that span, so it isn't like we've out bannered them by a lot.

Just as long as Arizona and Syracuse are looking way up at us where they belong.

UNC actually only has two in that stretch, but that's not important.
 
Maybe you could multiply the "value" of each year based on seeding, like a 1 seed who wins to the championship gets 64, while a 2 seed gets multiplied by say 1.1 and is worth roughly 70, 3 seed 1.2 for 77, 3 seed 1.3 for 83, and so on

Except then you're rewarding teams for playing worse during the regular season.
 
How does Duke and N. Car almost always playing 2-4 games of 6 in NORTH CAROLINA factor in all this over the years? Think they get a few more wins as home team many times? Wonder if UConn played the 1st 4 games in MSG every tourney? Which bodes this Q: What venue sees more NCAA tourney games? Greensboro or MSG (basketball capital of the world)?
 
CallMeBruce said:
UNC actually only has two in that stretch, but that's not important.

Three - they won the Chris Webber timeout game in 1993 and twice under Roy (with Sean May in 2005 and Hansbrough in 2009).
 
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Three - they won the Chris Webber timeout game in 1993 and twice under Roy (with Sean May in 2005 and Hansbrough in 2009).

The embarrassing part is I actually remembered the '93 win. Somehow I forgot that they won the one in 2009. What a dope.
 
I think it makes perfect sense. Winning a championship isn't that much better than getting to the championship game.

Would you rather be a fan of a team with one title and 6 final fours or 2 titles and two final fours? I'd prefer the six final fours.
I'll take the 2 titles.
 
The "modern era" really begins with the addition of the 3 point shot. That changed the game far more than expansion to 64 teams.
 
CallMeBruce said:
The embarrassing part is I actually remembered the '93 win. Somehow I forgot that they won the one in 2009. What a dope.

In fairness, that's the one time that the title game fell during our three-day mourning period after a loss. Easy to black it out.
 
First, and most importantly, thanks for putting this together. We can all debate the weightings but I appreciate your work and starting the discussion.

That said, I think the analogy to the scoring a basket is a false one. The quality of the teams increase as you progress through the tournament. It's reasonable for other posters to suggest that weighting them higher makes sense.
I have no problem with the use of weights. Trying to agree on what they should be might start more fights than it resolves. I'm still of the mind that performances are being weighted. A championship is weighted seven times as much as an appearance.
 
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Maybe you could multiply the "value" of each year based on seeding, like a 1 seed who wins to the championship gets 64, while a 2 seed gets multiplied by say 1.1 and is worth roughly 70, 3 seed 1.2 for 77, 3 seed 1.3 for 83, and so on
Like I said, the measurement can be simple or it can be complicated. :)
 
I apologize for any misunderstandings on my part. I didn't approach this study with any specific outcome in mind. Rather, I was actually responding to a thread posted a few months ago as to who basketball's "blue bloods" were and whether or not UConn should be considered among them. Part of the problem in reaching consensus was in arriving at a way to measure a program's achievements and over what timeframe the measurements should be made.

I figured the measurement should be simple because I figured the greater complications the greater the likelihood for bickering (obviously I'm re-thinking that line of reasoning ;)). About the same time as the "blue bloods" discussion were some threads about how the NCAA allocates payouts. Since their method involved rewarding achievement in, assumedly, a fairly equitable fashion, I chose to use the logic they employed. I was disappointed that their reasoning didn't differentiate beyond teams in the Final Four. Whereas the NCAA awards all teams in the Final Four 5 points, I chose to recognize the two teams making it to the championship game 6 points for the runner-up and 7 points for the champion. I was also under the impression that the NCAA payout method had been in place for some period of time without enough dissention to change it, and therefore represented some degree of satisfaction with it.

As far as the time period for measurement, I chose 1985 to the present for the reasons I stated. For the most part, that hasn't been under attack.

Again, I'm not trying to make a case for or against any particular program. I selected a measurement and explained my reasons for doing so. Ditto for the timeframe. The results are just the results.

Let's be honest.....the real problem with your numbers is it didn't have UConn ranked #1. If you created a ranking system where UConn ended up as #1, everyone would stop crying.
 
This formula is pointless. In the end we will only support it if it has uconn as the best after its all tallied up. I personally think if you look at College Hoops since `85 i think Duke is the top program followed by UNC,Uconn and Uk.
 
I'm with the people that say winning the NC should be worth about .0 points. Doing the 0-7 based on not making the tourney, going out the first round, 2nd round, etc etc...

Maybe if everything were weighted... It seems that you have to give way more weight to the final 4, NC game, and winning the NC...

Winning the NC 30
Making NC game 20
Final 4 - 15
Elite 8 - 10
Sweet 16 - 7
Round of 32 - 4
Making the tourney - 2
Missing it - 0
 
Championships are nice, but once we won one, and especially two, the value of the others has gone down for me. Getting to the final four is what I would give extra points for.

Each one feels better than the last, here. And getting to the final four and NOT WINNING? 2009 left the biggest hole in my Husky soul since Donyell clanked those free throws.

Being good all the time is more important to me than being great occasionally.

Four titles in fifteen years is occasionally?
 
Each one feels better than the last, here. And getting to the final four and NOT WINNING? 2009 left the biggest hole in my Husky soul since Donyell clanked those free throws.



Four titles in fifteen years is occasionally?
I have to admit I thoroughly enjoyed this last one, Rich. Part of it watching all those talking heads explaining how UConn's opponent probably deserved the overall #1 seed before the game then adamantly defending it again at halftime. Michigan State, Florida, Kentucky...any one of them might easily have been the country's best (except they weren't).
 
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Winning the NC 30
Making NC game 20
Final 4 - 15
Elite 8 - 10
Sweet 16 - 7
Round of 32 - 4
Making the tourney - 2
Missing it - 0



At a bare minimum winning the title should be worth 64 pts. In the most basic way at the beginning of the tourney you have a 1 in 64 chance to win. Why would you decrease the pts compared to the odds when the games get harder.
 
Not to get all Nascar up in here, but the guy who finishes 17th gets more points than the guy finishing 21st and no one cares about either of them.

Making the tournament is a given and whatever demerits you want to give UConn for not making it those first few years and for the post title slumps and the BS APR go right ahead. See previous paragraph.

Objectively making the tournament or even winning a first (64) game has nothing to do with being elite. Sweet sixteen and up are what schools, coaches, and the media use as measuring stick unless they are trying to overhype something (see Arizona and Pitt).

Usually the Tourney appearances are the honorable mention ribbons for programs like RU and your mid major flavor of the month. Look out for Campbell, it's their second straight appearance. Yawn.

The best programs are Duke, UConn, Kentucky in some order depending how you dissect it. UNC, Kansas, and MSU are next. Everyone else is a pretender who may or may not have had a moment in the sun.
I like it. But add AZ with UNC, MSU, Kansas. I'd put AZ ahead of UNC at this point.
 
Except then you're rewarding teams for playing worse during the regular season.
You're not rewarding them for playing poorly in the regular season; you're rewarding them for overcoming a poor seed path. You don't think the extraordinary feat of a 7 seed beating a 4, 3, 2, and overall #1 seed doesn't deserve some extra recognition? I get that for us a Championship is a Championship, but a 1 seed beating a 15, 7, 6, and 8 to get to the FF, is that really a big deal?
 
OP, thank you for all your hard work. I particularly liked the trending section.
There can never be a perfect system, but it looks like other weighting systems keep showing pretty much the same thing.
You must have a lot of patience. Some posters seem to expect you to have come up with a formula that is perfectly weighted for tournament rounds, home court advantage, seeding disparities and players with ingrown toenails. Rule of thumb: Don't ever present data on the BY that shows Syracuse equal to UCONN. They totally forget how to play nice when that happens.
 
The 3 point shot changed the game but did it change the tournament? Would we have been arguing about the about basically the same 12 programs as being the elites with or without the 3 point line? Certainly UConn may not have been in the conversation had the tournament not expanded. Without 64 teams we definitely wouldn't have had our last championship because we didn't win the league.
 
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OP, thank you for all your hard work. I particularly liked the trending section.
There can never be a perfect system, but it looks like other weighting systems keep showing pretty much the same thing.
You must have a lot of patience. Some posters seem to expect you to have come up with a formula that is perfectly weighted for tournament rounds, home court advantage, seeding disparities and players with ingrown toenails. Rule of thumb: Don't ever present data on the BY that shows Syracuse equal to UCONN. They totally forget how to play nice when that happens.
Thanks for the kind words, David. I think the real "problem" is that people here are so passionate about this team. We're lucky to have such problems. I don't get too concerned about the anomalies introduced by seeding irregularities, bracket geography, hot shooting, injuries and the thousand and one other things people use to argue another perspective. Those tend to even out over time. 30 data points (years) is a pretty decent sample size. I'll keep your advice in mind. Rules of thumb are usually wisely heeded.
 
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