BE vs ACC Media: non-media expert analysis

[Marty Jackson]

Rainy Sunday.... Nothing to do but put together some numbers to see how the big east stacks up with the ACC from a media standpoint using the ACCs $17M figure as the baseline...

ACC
FSU - $25M
Miami- $25

Clemson - $20
GT - $20
VT - 20
UNC - 20 (basketball at premium)

NC State - 15M
Pitt - 15
Syr - 15
MD - 15
VA - 15
Duke - 15 (basketball at premium)

BC - 9M
WF - 9

Total is $238M

BE
Boise - $15M (FB only)
UofL - 18 (basketball at premium)
Cincy - 15
Rutgers - 15
USF - 15 (premium)
UH - 15
Uconn - 17 (basketball at premium)

Memphis - $10
Temple - 10
UCF - 10
SDSU - 10 (FB only)
Navy - 10 (FB only)
SMU - 10

Total is $170M for 13 schools...

I think the difference is potential... The ACC is pretty much where it's going to be. Maybe 2 schools could go up to the next grouping adding 10M... But the BE has three big opportunities:
14th school
Upward mobility
Market timing

If BE adds BYU that's a $20M program... And I think at least 8 schools could move up a notch: Boise, UofL, USF, Houston, SMU, Memphis, UCF, SDSU (all because of location or current trend).. That's another $40M.

not including market timing and having multiple networks bidding BE could get to $230M if we agree the ACC deal is slightly under valued ( not too big a stretch seeing they had one bidder)...

So, is the fact that ESPN, NBC, and maybe fox or CBS as potential bidders add $20M to surpass the ACC.

Have at it...

Diclosure: I didn't analyze each school but rather put them into bands. If there was a reason to add a premium I noted. Example. UofL at $18M is a $15M school plus $3M extra for BB. Uconn is probably less for football but more for BB (just less than UofL)... Did same for ACc (Duke at $15M is mostly BB)

 

[Marty Jackson]

2011-2012 Ratings:

How are the new members factored in?

 

[UConnDan97]

Rainy Sunday.... Nothing to do but put together some numbers to see how the big east stacks up with the ACC from a media standpoint using the ACCs $17M figure as the baseline...

ACC
FSU - $25M
Miami- $25

Clemson - $20
GT - $20
VT - 20
UNC - 20 (basketball at premium)

NC State - 15M
Pitt - 15
Syr - 15
MD - 15
VA - 15
Duke - 15 (basketball at premium)

BC - 9M
WF - 9

Total is $238M

BE
Boise - $15M (FB only)
UofL - 18 (basketball at premium)
Cincy - 15
Rutgers - 15
USF - 15 (premium)
UH - 15
Uconn - 17 (basketball at premium)

Memphis - $10
Temple - 10
UCF - 10
SDSU - 10 (FB only)
Navy - 10 (FB only)
SMU - 10

Total is $170M for 13 schools...

Marty, what did you use to determine the ACC splits? Or is it just "winging it?" I'm not arguing for or against any numbers presented, but I'm curious to their origin (there's not some ACC per-team link out there that I haven't yet seen, is there?).

 

[Marty Jackson]

Marty, what did you use to determine the ACC splits? Or is it just "winging it?" I'm not arguing for or against any numbers presented, but I'm curious to their origin (there's not some ACC per-team link out there that I haven't yet seen, is there?).

Nothing was posted... I broke the ACC into 4 bands and applied arbitrary figures to make the figures work.
The $'s can always be debated. Whether the buckets are $15 or $20M isn't really the question. It's how many schools fit into each band. I thought the groupings would be the bigger conversation driver.

I think FSU and Miami are the two big drivers in the ACC. Vt, GT, and Clemson are a close second but not quite there. And I think gt and Clemson are what they are. If VT continues on their trend they could join FSU on a national stage.

After that there's a whole group of schools that arent too distinguishable from the BE...

 

[TRest]

Nothing was posted... I broke the ACC into 4 bands and applied arbitrary figures to make the figures work.
The $'s can always be debated. Whether the buckets are $15 or $20M isn't really the question. It's how many schools fit into each band. I thought the groupings would be the bigger conversation driver.

I think FSU and Miami are the two big drivers in the ACC. Vt, GT, and Clemson are a close second but not quite there. And I think gt and Clemson are what they are. If VT continues on their trend they could join FSU on a national stage.

After that there's a whole group of schools that arent too distinguishable from the BE...

I think VT has surpassed Miami as a football brand. Older people (like me) think a decade ago is just a moment, younger fans realize a decade ago means you haven't done squat in a significant time period. High school recruits aged 18 or younger probably weren't paying attention when the U was still playing in BCS games.

 

[coachcap]

The U lapsed into irrelavency the moment they commenced play in the ACC & they can't a ladder tall enough to climb out of the abyss.

 

[CL82]

How are the new members factored in?

More importantly, remember that these numbers reflect poor time slots and virtually no promotion. Viewership numbers will increase dramatically with a change to NBC, IMO.

 

[Marty Jackson]

I think VT has surpassed Miami as a football brand. Older people (like me) think a decade ago is just a moment, younger fans realize a decade ago means you haven't done squat in a significant time period. High school recruits aged 18 or younger probably weren't paying attention when the U was still playing in BCS games.

The problem the ACc has is that their marquee programs have underachieved.... But VTs biggest win isn't a NC. And they always seem to come up just short on the biggest stage against the other big boys.

 

[TRest]

The problem the ACc has is that their marquee programs have underachieved.... But VTs biggest win isn't a NC. And they always seem to come up just short on the biggest stage against the other big boys.

Yeah, but ABC/ESPN keeps featuring them on the biggest stage. Remember when the nACC started having the Labor Day Monday night games featuring Miami-FSU? IIRC that game has been a VT showcase for the last 5 years.

 

[UConnDan97]

I think VT has surpassed Miami as a football brand. Older people (like me) think a decade ago is just a moment, younger fans realize a decade ago means you haven't done squat in a significant time period. High school recruits aged 18 or younger probably weren't paying attention when the U was still playing in BCS games.

It's funny; I had this exact same thought when looking at the buckets. My feel of the merchandising sales tells me it should be Miami, but the product on tv and the "big time" games over the last decade on tv tell me it's Virginia Tech. VaTech has undoubtedly been the premier team of the ACC, and the second team isn't even close (sorry Florida State, Miami, and Clemson!). I think that most young kids probably feel that way about it, too. Not sure how many kids are sitting there saying, "Man, I want to be like Michael Irvin and Russell Maryland!!"

 

[TRest]

It's funny; I had this exact same thought when looking at the buckets. My feel of the merchandising sales tells me it should be Miami, but the product on tv and the "big time" games over the last decade on tv tell me it's Virginia Tech. VaTech has undoubtedly been the premier team of the ACC, and the second team isn't even close (sorry Florida State, Miami, and Clemson!). I think that most young kids probably feel that way about it, too. Not sure how many kids are sitting there saying, "Man, I want to be like Michael Irvin and Russell Maryland!!"

There was a time when a lot of entertainers, rappers, etc. were seen in videos and photographs decked out in the U's gear. I don't follow popular culture as much anymore, but I don't think a college team has that brand now. If anything, it's probably NBA or NFL gear.

Miami also had a remarkable streak of first round NFL picks, I think that ended a couple of years ago.

 

[UConnDan97]

There was a time when a lot of entertainers, rappers, etc. were seen in videos and photographs decked out in the U's gear. I don't follow popular culture as much anymore, but I don't think a college team has that brand now. If anything, it's probably NBA or NFL gear.

Miami also had a remarkable streak of first round NFL picks, I think that ended a couple of years ago.

Miami does have the advantage of a simple logo call. Everyone knows who you're talking about if you say, "The U." Nobody will care if you say, "The V.T." Still, I agree with you that the brand has certainly faded, and I think that most recruits recognize Va Tech as the much better program.

 

[observer]

2011-2012 Ratings:

This is the whole key to what the NBE will get paid. How many eyeballs are expected to actually watch the games. The old BE was last in football ratings and second from the bottom in hoops. Those are not viewership numbers that networks will pay huge amounts for.

As some have pointed out, numbers can be moved slightly by promotion but you can only put so much lipstick on a pig. Also, promotion costs $$ because each ad for the NBE on whatever network it winds up on is an ad slot that could have been sold for real $$ to another advertiser.

Of course there may be a compelling TV draw from the NBE every few years, think unbeaten team with popular players, but the only team that may be a draw in the NBE is Boise and that assumes they continue to perform at their current level but overall besides Boise there are no teams in the NBE that move the needle in the slightest as far as TV ratings.

 

[UConnDan97]

UCF is an interesting school for me. Marty has listed them in the 10mil bucket, and I don't necessarily have a problem with that. But it shocked me to learn that they are the second biggest school in the country in terms of population, at just shy of 60,000 students every year. They've already shown that they can beat BCS schools in football (after they clobbered the hell out of BC by 27 points...but I should put up an example of a BCS school, too). I am wondering what the effect will be of UCF joining a BCS league in terms of their market share and their revenue stream. That's a hell of a lot of alumni that could get excited about a good football program...

 

[whaler11]

More importantly, remember that these numbers reflect poor time slots and virtually no promotion. Viewership numbers will increase dramatically with a change to NBC, IMO.

There is absolutely no way in the world the Big East's numbers would be better anywhere but on network NBC. If you put the Big East on cable on Saturdays in the short term they would be lucky to get half that viewership. NBC Sports all time highest rated show is at that SEC average. Thursday and Friday may come with a lower overall audience but they come without competition.

 

[whaler11]

UCF is an interesting school for me. Marty has listed them in the 10mil bucket, and I don't necessarily have a problem with that. But it shocked me to learn that they are the second biggest school in the country in terms of population, at just shy of 60,000 students every year. They've already shown that they can beat BCS schools in football (after they clobbered the hell out of BC by 27 points...but I should put up an example of a BCS school, too). I am wondering what the effect will be of UCF joining a BCS league in terms of their market share and their revenue stream. That's a hell of a lot of alumni that could get excited about a good football program...

Probably similar to USF which is also a huge school. It will take a long while for them to overcome FSU and UF, and a hell of a lot of winning on the national stage.

 

[CL82]

There is absolutely no way in the world the Big East's numbers would be better anywhere but on network NBC. If you put the Big East on cable on Saturdays in the short term they would be lucky to get half that viewership. NBC Sports all time highest rated show is at that SEC average. Thursday and Friday may come with a lower overall audience but they come without competition.

So after a NBC deal when we are getting bigger numbers does that mean that on the field product automatically got better? We were in crappy timeslots on ESPN with announcers crapping all over our league. Think that hurt our viewership at all? That's a big part the reason why moving from ESPN is so desireable.

 

[UConnDan97]

So after a NBC deal when we are getting bigger numbers does that mean that on the field product automatically got better? We were in crappy timeslots on ESPN with announcers crapping all over our league. Think that hurt our viewership at all? That's a big part the reason why moving from ESPN is so desireable.

There is a part of me that says even if the money in ESPN is better that they should go with NBC or FOX, just so that I don't have to listen to Gilmore, May, and Tessitore crap on the Big East one more time...

 

[whaler11]

So after a NBC deal when we are getting bigger numbers does that mean that on the field product automatically got better? We were in crappy timeslots on ESPN with announcers crapping all over our league. Think that hurt our viewership at all? That's a big part the reason why moving from ESPN is so desireable.

It's hard to tell the net impact. Did Wednesday suck for UConn and Pitt? Sure, but they probably got a higher than average number because there was little else to bet on and there weren't 10 other games on. Almost all the announcers suck - so it's not like that drives anything.

The Big East will put up much lower numbers on cable NBC in the short term. I don't even see how it could be debated. What the Big East has averaged in the past is a HUGE number on NBCS. They had a SDSU/ basketball game draw 19k viewers.

You play on Saturday you compete with ABC, CBS, CBS cable, Fox Regional, ESPN, ESPNU, ESPN 2, BTN, Pac 12 net and there are millions of college football fans who are at games.

MACtion is a concept because they play on Tuesday and Wednesday. If they played on TV on Saturday it would mean nothing.

I saw an article today that proposed tht more than half of Sunday ticket subscriptions are driven by gambling. Having that community captive drives television ratings a lot.

 

[whaler11]

There is a part of me that says even if the money in ESPN is better that they should go with NBC or FOX, just so that I don't have to listen to Gilmore, May, and Tessitore crap on the Big East one more time...

They won't stop. They will actually step it up. You might not be watching as much, but the rest of the world will. Wait till you see May with Pitt in the ACC - he has probably held back some.

 

[Marty Jackson]

UCF is an interesting school for me. Marty has listed them in the 10mil bucket, and I don't necessarily have a problem with that. But it shocked me to learn that they are the second biggest school in the country in terms of population, at just shy of 60,000 students every year. They've already shown that they can beat BCS schools in football (after they clobbered the hell out of BC by 27 points...but I should put up an example of a BCS school, too). I am wondering what the effect will be of UCF joining a BCS league in terms of their market share and their revenue stream. That's a hell of a lot of alumni that could get excited about a good football program...

I put them in the lowest bracket today. But I think they are one of the teams that is upwardly mobile.
That is the biggest difference between the ACC and BE. The ACC is a bunch of knowns. There isn't a team that isn't going to be in 10 years what it is today. Maybe VT steps up to the big boy club (some think they're already there), but there isn't too many others.
BE on the other hand is filled with teams that will benefit from the association with the BE and step up their program big time (ala Louisville)...
USF, UCF, Houston, SDSU, Louisville, Cincy, and Boise are all on the upswing.

 

[Marty Jackson]

This is the whole key to what the NBE will get paid. How many eyeballs are expected to actually watch the games. The old BE was last in football ratings and second from the bottom in hoops. Those are not viewership numbers that networks will pay huge amounts for.

As some have pointed out, numbers can be moved slightly by promotion but you can only put so much lipstick on a pig. Also, promotion costs $$ because each ad for the NBE on whatever network it winds up on is an ad slot that could have been sold for real $$ to another advertiser.

Of course there may be a compelling TV draw from the NBE every few years, think unbeaten team with popular players, but the only team that may be a draw in the NBE is Boise and that assumes they continue to perform at their current level but overall besides Boise there are no teams in the NBE that move the needle in the slightest as far as TV ratings.

Football drives the bus, and the BE according to the figures you reference show the BE right behind the ACC. Some would say the difference is marginal. After all the BE pulled those figures with 9 teams in weaker, non-traditional time slots.
Those figures would actually suggest the BE is deserving a deal that is in line with the ACC.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Football drives the bus, and the BE according to the figures you reference show the BE right behind the ACC. Some would say the difference is marginal. After all the BE pulled those figures with 9 teams in weaker, non-traditional time slots.
Those figures would actually suggest the BE is deserving a deal that is in line with the ACC.

BE has several advantages this time around vs. the ACC:

1. ACC got a crappy media deal. They are locked in with ESPiN for the next 17 years or so. They were the first one to the market and they got a rotten deal. By getting that $17M per year, ACC had to provide more inventory (9 conference games vs. 8) with 2 new additional members. In addition, ACC had to agree to play on week night games like FRI. On top of that, ESPiN added 3 more years to their media deal so ACC also got screwed here. ESPiN did not give them anything for free or up their numbers for nothing.

2. PAC-12 does not have great TV viewing numbers. Their FB numbers were barely above the BE and BE basketball got much better TV viewing vs. PAC-12 basketball. PAC-12 got much better deal than the ACC due to market timing and multiple bids. Remember ESPiN low balled ACC. It wasn't until FOX stepped in when ESPiN upped its numbers. Now ACC is exclusively ESPiN little bi*tch for the next 17 years.

3. Like Marty said above, nBE is full of potential. There is no telling where teams like SDSU, Memphis, UCF, Houston, Boise and SMU will be in a few years. I believe all those teams have the potential to take over their markets.

4. Some people look at nBE's across the country geography as a weakness. I think it is a strength for a TV network. The ability to provide games across 4 time zones in one day is very valuable to a TV network. When UCONN is playing SDSU, you got CT and San Diego watching the game. That's big deal to a TV network and it means $$$$$ for advertising. nBE has Paul Tabligue's fingerprint all over it. It was set up like the NFL for TV purposes.

5. You can't use ACC's number as a baseline. It has nothing to do with what ACC has for teams. The timing is completely different. ACC's media deal sucks and BE would be wise to avoid the same mistake.

I would be very surprised if BE does not come close to or surpass ACC's media deal.

 

[Adios]

They won't stop. They will actually step it up. You might not be watching as much, but the rest of the world will. Wait till you see May with Pitt in the ACC - he has probably held back some.

Do you think Asia and Africa or South America care much about college gridiron football? College basketball has a much bigger global audience.

 

[whaler11]

Do you think Asia and Africa or South America care much about college gridiron football? College basketball has a much bigger global audience.

What does that have to do with Mark May bashing the Big East?