BE Bubble Update (3/8/24)

[auror]

Here's how we're looking today before this weekend's last BE games and before the BET.

31. Villanova 17-13 (10-9 BE)
Power - #26, Resume - #61
Non-Conf SoS - #78
Away/Neutral: 7-9
Q1: 4-8 (1A 2-5), N-North Carolina, @-Creighton, N-Texas Tech, @-Providence
Q2: 6-2
Top 2: 10-10
Q3+Q4 losses: 3, H-St. Joe's, N-Drexel, @-Penn
Wins Under Consideration: 6-7 (11-6 rest)
BracketMatrix - 10 seed (#40)
Remaining schedule - H-Creighton
Thoughts: Improved their metrics by a couple spots mostly with their win at Providence. Up 8 spots in a week in Bracket Matrix, which is wild for a 1-1 week since my last update. Fairly safely in according to that, but potentially 15 losses on Selection Sunday still makes me nervous for them. Tough game left, but at least at home. Win and they're in. Lose and they may need to win quarters game (likely against Marquette or Seton Hall)

37. St. John's 18-12 (10-9 BE)
Power - #29, Resume - #57
Non-Conf SoS - #182
Away/Neutral: 7-8
Q1: 4-9 (1A 2-6), H-Creighton, @-Villanova @-Butler, N-Utah
Q2: 5-2
Top 2: 9-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 1, H-Michigan
Wins Under Consideration: 5-9 (12-3 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last four in (#43)
Remaining schedule - H-GTown
Thoughts: Torvik loves St. John's, but KPI hates them. Unfortunately Torvik isn't on the committee teamsheet but KPI is. Similar to Villanova in terms of gap between predictive metrics and resume metrics. St. John's need to keep rooting for Villanova considering their sweep. Likely 5 seed in BET with matchup against Seton Hall or Marquette, both would be winnable games that would likely shore up a bid.

61. Providence 19-11 (10-9 BE)
Power - #59, Resume - #59
Non-Conf SoS - #252
Away/Neutral: 5-8
Q1: 5-8 (2-5), H-Marquette, H-Creighton, H-Wisconsin, @-Seton Hall, @-Xavier
Q2: 2-3
Top 2: 7-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 5-8 (13-2 non)
BracketMatrix - First four out (#47)
Remaining schedule - H-UConn
Thoughts: Dropped 5 spots in the NET and 11 spots in the resume average after their double digit loss to Nova at home in a slow possession game. Even lost a Q2 win with Georgia falling out of top 100 NET. I would be surprised if they weren't on the wrong side of the bubble right now. BracketMatrix moved them from last four in to first four out. Winning against UConn would certainly go along way to putting them in, and then they'll get either Butler+UConn or Gtown+Creighton in BET. Feels like 2 more wins gets them in.

63. Seton Hall 19-11 (12-7)
Power - #59, Resume - #44
Non-Conf SoS - #222
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 5-7 (1A 3-6), H-UConn, H-Marquette, @-St. John's, @-Providence, @-Butler
Q2: 4-3
Top 2: 9-10
Q3+Q4 losses: 1, H-Rutgers
Wins Under Consideration: 6-8 (13-3 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last four in (#42)
Remaining schedule - H-DePaul
Thoughts - Removed a bad loss as USC has moved up a bit, but it's still tenuous. Stayed in the same spot in BracketMatrix over the last week. 5-7 Q1 wins is very strong for the bubble and potentially 6 if Nova moves slightly up again. Resume looks pretty good to me. Auto-win left, just need to avoid the funniest thing. They will likely be in a bubble off in BET quarters with St Johns or Nova again.

65. Butler 18-13 (9-11 BE)
Power - #66, Resume - #61
Non-Conf SoS - #87
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 4-11 (1A 2-6), @-Marquette, @-Creighton, N-Boise State, H-Villanova
Q2: 4-2
Top 2 8-13
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 6-12 (12-1 non)
BracketMatrix - Off bubble
Remaining schedule - None until BET.
Thoughts: They're still pretty far away. Q1 win % is bad. Predictives aren't great. They're going to need to win at least 2 maybe 3 games in BET.

For comparison, here's the last non-Big East team currently in the field by BracketMatrix.
26. New Mexico 22-8 (10-7)
Power - #36, Resume - #48
Non-Conf SoS - #268
Away/Neutral: 8-8
Q1: 2-5 (1A 1-4), @-Nevada, H-San Diego St
Q2: 4-1
Top 2: 6-6
Q3+Q4 losses: 2, H-UNLV, H-Air Force
Wins Under Consideration: 6-6 (16-2 non)
BracketMatrix - Last in (#44)
Remaining schedule - @-Utah State

 

[businesslawyer]

Nova is a really hard team to predict. It can’t be a usual resume to have THREE loses as bad as they have, but still have other metrics that should have them in.

 

[Sibeerian]

Here's how we're looking today before this weekend's last BE games and before the BET.

31. Villanova 17-13 (10-9 BE)
Power - #26, Resume - #61
Non-Conf SoS - #78
Away/Neutral: 7-9
Q1: 4-8 (1A 2-5), N-North Carolina, @-Creighton, N-Texas Tech, @-Providence
Q2: 6-2
Top 2: 10-10
Q3+Q4 losses: 3, H-St. Joe's, N-Drexel, @-Penn
Wins Under Consideration: 6-7 (11-6 rest)
BracketMatrix - 10 seed (#40)
Remaining schedule - H-Creighton
Thoughts: Improved their metrics by a couple spots mostly with their win at Providence. Up 8 spots in a week in Bracket Matrix, which is wild for a 1-1 week since my last update. Fairly safely in according to that, but potentially 15 losses on Selection Sunday still makes me nervous for them. Tough game left, but at least at home. Win and they're in. Lose and they may need to win quarters game (likely against Marquette or Seton Hall)

37. St. John's 18-12 (10-9 BE)
Power - #29, Resume - #57
Non-Conf SoS - #182
Away/Neutral: 7-8
Q1: 4-9 (1A 2-6), H-Creighton, @-Villanova @-Butler, N-Utah
Q2: 5-2
Top 2: 9-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 1, H-Michigan
Wins Under Consideration: 5-9 (12-3 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last four in (#43)
Remaining schedule - H-GTown
Thoughts: Torvik loves St. John's, but KPI hates them. Unfortunately Torvik isn't on the committee teamsheet but KPI is. Similar to Villanova in terms of gap between predictive metrics and resume metrics. St. John's need to keep rooting for Villanova considering their sweep. Likely 5 seed in BET with matchup against Seton Hall or Marquette, both would be winnable games that would likely shore up a bid.

61. Providence 19-11 (10-9 BE)
Power - #59, Resume - #59
Non-Conf SoS - #252
Away/Neutral: 5-8
Q1: 5-8 (2-5), H-Marquette, H-Creighton, H-Wisconsin, @-Seton Hall, @-Xavier
Q2: 2-3
Top 2: 7-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 5-8 (13-2 non)
BracketMatrix - First four out (#47)
Remaining schedule - H-UConn
Thoughts: Dropped 5 spots in the NET and 11 spots in the resume average after their double digit loss to Nova at home in a slow possession game. Even lost a Q2 win with Georgia falling out of top 100 NET. I would be surprised if they weren't on the wrong side of the bubble right now. BracketMatrix moved them from last four in to first four out. Winning against UConn would certainly go along way to putting them in, and then they'll get either Butler+UConn or Gtown+Creighton in BET. Feels like 2 more wins gets them in.

63. Seton Hall 19-11 (12-7)
Power - #59, Resume - #44
Non-Conf SoS - #222
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 5-7 (1A 3-6), H-UConn, H-Marquette, @-St. John's, @-Providence, @-Butler
Q2: 4-3
Top 2: 9-10
Q3+Q4 losses: 1, H-Rutgers
Wins Under Consideration: 6-8 (13-3 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last four in (#42)
Remaining schedule - H-DePaul
Thoughts - Removed a bad loss as USC has moved up a bit, but it's still tenuous. Stayed in the same spot in BracketMatrix over the last week. 5-7 Q1 wins is very strong for the bubble and potentially 6 if Nova moves slightly up again. Resume looks pretty good to me. Auto-win left, just need to avoid the funniest thing. They will likely be in a bubble off in BET quarters with St Johns or Nova again.

65. Butler 18-13 (9-11 BE)
Power - #66, Resume - #61
Non-Conf SoS - #87
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 4-11 (1A 2-6), @-Marquette, @-Creighton, N-Boise State, H-Villanova
Q2: 4-2
Top 2 8-13
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 6-12 (12-1 non)
BracketMatrix - Off bubble
Remaining schedule - None until BET.
Thoughts: They're still pretty far away. Q1 win % is bad. Predictives aren't great. They're going to need to win at least 2 maybe 3 games in BET.

For comparison, here's the last non-Big East team currently in the field by BracketMatrix.
26. New Mexico 22-8 (10-7)
Power - #36, Resume - #48
Non-Conf SoS - #268
Away/Neutral: 8-8
Q1: 2-5 (1A 1-4), @-Nevada, H-San Diego St
Q2: 4-1
Top 2: 6-6
Q3+Q4 losses: 2, H-UNLV, H-Air Force
Wins Under Consideration: 6-6 (16-2 non)
BracketMatrix - Last in (#44)
Remaining schedule - @-Utah State

This is good stuff, really appreciate the effort that goes into it.

 

[richw]

Nova does not belong in, 15 losses unless they get the automatic.It should be their last hope . No team with 14 losses should be able to claim the national championship.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It is impossible to assess any team in a vacuum, and the NET has become an unmitigated disaster of an analytics tool with two conferences (Big 12 and MWC) blatantly manipulating the NET. Who knows what will happen on Selection Sunday.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

League records vs. other power leagues (and the MWC)

Conference	Record vs. other P6	Record vs. P6 and MWC	% vs. P6
Big 12	30-24	35-25	.556
Big East	27-23	28-25	.540
SEC	37-32	37-32	.536
ACC	29-31	32-33	.483
Big 10	24-26	24-26	.480
MWC	11-10		.524
Pac 12	13-24	14-30	.351

The major leagues played a lot of games against each other, and this is as good a starting point of an analysis of the NET as any. While the Big 12 was clearly better than the other leagues, it was a little better, not a lot, and the Top 3 leagues, the Big 12, Big East and SEC, were all pretty close. The ACC and Big 10 had almost the same record against the other majors, and the Pac 12 sucked.

The MWC did OK, but did not play many games against the major conferences to justify its members' strong NET ratings.

Yet if you look at the NET, the Big 12 is utterly dominant, and 9 teams should be LOCKS for the NCAA Tournament while maybe 4 Big East teams should go. The NET is garbage.

 

[Hi-Low]

Nova does not belong in, 15 losses unless they get the automatic.It should be their last hope . No team with 14 losses should be able to claim the national championship.

Lunardi daily update an hour ago....next update later toningt (for what it's worth)

Big East Bubble:
. Has Nova as "last team in" after Creighton loss.

. Has St. John's as 3rd to last team in

. Has Providence as 2nd team out

. Has Seton Hall 2nd to last team with a bye - so seem safely in (for now)

So the BE has 7 teams in play with realistic shot at bids but only 3 real locks.

 

[gsmooth]

Lunardi daily update an hour ago....next update later toningt (for what it's worth)

Big East Bubble:
. Has Nova as "last team in" after Creighton loss.

. Has St. John's as 3rd to last team in

. Has Providence as 2nd team out

. Has Seton Hall 2nd to last team with a bye - so seem safely in (for now)

So the BE has 7 teams in play with realistic shot at bids but only 3 real locks.

Let's make sure Providence doesn't get in with a victory tonight.I am seated.here at the AMP
HuskyHawk where you at?

 

[Hi-Low]

Lunardi daily update an hour ago....next update later toningt (for what it's worth)

Big East Bubble:
. Has Nova as "last team in" after Creighton loss.

. Has St. John's as 3rd to last team in

. Has Providence as 2nd team out

. Has Seton Hall 2nd to last team with a bye - so seem safely in (for now)

So the BE has 7 teams in play with realistic shot at bids but only 3 real locks.

Update...Lunardi has moved Nova to "first team out" with Colorado win pushing Nova out.

So has 5 BE teams in (UConn/Marq/Creighton/S. Hall/St. Johns) & Nova/Prov "last 4 out"

 

[shizzle787]

Seton Hall and St. John's are winners today. Providence and Villanova are losers.

Scenarios to lock up a bid:

Seton Hall: should be in but win over St. John's in BET would remove any doubt

St. John's: should be in but win over Seton Hall in BET would remove any doubt

Villanova: needs two wins in BET

Providence: needs two wins in BET

Butler: needs three wins in BET

 

[auror]

Seton Hall and St. John's are winners today. Providence and Villanova are losers.

Scenarios to lock up a bid:

Seton Hall: should be in but win over St. John's in BET would remove any doubt

St. John's: should be in but win over Seton Hall in BET would remove any doubt

Villanova: needs two wins in BET

Providence: needs two wins in BET

Butler: needs three wins in BET

Seems clear that Seton Hall vs. St. John's is a win and you're definitely in game. Gets another good win and sets up no-lose game vs. UConn. Loser has a sweat, Seton Hall probably less so than St. John's.

Nova and Providence will win against DePaul and GTown. Ball is in their court against Creighton and Marquette. Win and they're in or at least close depending on bubble bid thief contraction.

 

[auror]

St. John's and Providence win. Hall and Nova lose. I'll update metrics when they update tomorrow if I have time.

But problem for Big East bubble teams is that bubble teams in general did very well overall today (plus A10 guaranteed a bid thief with their high seed losses).

Mich St, Miss St, Colorado, Virginia - the 4 teams all closest to Seton Hall in the matrix all won today and likely punched their tickets. Contrasted with Hall's loss, this pushes them closer to the bubble from the in-side of the tournament. They're going to be Last 4 In on a lot of brackets come tomorrow.

From the other direction of the bubble, New Mexico, Texas A&M, and Pittsburgh (the Bracket Matrix first 4 out alongside Villanova) also all won and can continue to win while Hall is stagnant. Nova might be drawing dead. Providence at least kept pace and likely gained a little ground as it had perhaps the best win of the bunch.

To summarize and drive the point home, every non-Big East team ranked within 7 places of the cutline inside the Bracket Matrix field and 5 places outside the cutline that played today all won. The only losers in that zone were Seton Hall and Villanova (and I guess Indiana St for being already done).

Ohio State is also surging and has an unusual committee proposition with their new coach. Kansas St, Wake, and Iowa are the real losers of the day outside of the Big East as they lost and lost ground from an already desperate Next Four Out+ status. Overall, the Big East is probably closer to 4 bids today than 6 bids, especially considering the Dayton loss.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

I think St Johns and Seton Hall are in. Providence should be, but they will be right on the cutline if they lose today

 

[jibsey]

5 teams?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I have never loved Seton Hall as a lock. They have a couple of fantastic wins (UConn, Marquette), a solid road record (5-6) and then not much else. They have 4 losses to teams clearly outside the tournament (USC, Iowa, Rutgers, Xavier), and 1 win in the last two months over a team going to the tournament (St. Johns). That 65 NET rating is ugly for a bubble team, and looking through their record, it feels like they earned that NET.

Finally, Seton Hall does not pass the eye test. I think this team kind of sucks, and Holloway has been winning with mirrors all season. He deserves national coach of the year for winning 20 games in the modern era while playing in a major conference with a team that can't shoot 3's. He plays a 4 guard lineup, and 2 of those guards (Richmond and Addae-Wusu) can't shoot at all, and a third (Davis) just got hot in the last 2 games before the tournament. Some of these other bubble teams look capable of pulling off a big win over a 5 or a 6. What are the odds of Seton Hall doing something like that?

I think Holloway is a fantastic coach, and if he is smart about his career, he will get out of North Jersey this offseason. College basketball is littered with really good coaches whose career came to an ignominious end because they stayed in a job where it was impossible to win. Seton Hall in the NIL era is one of those jobs.