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Message: [QUOTE="shizzle787, post: 4889580, member: 6581"] Did a historical analysis on wins on Selection Sunday needed to make the field for all Big East teams since 13/14 (first year of New Big East). I did not include the 19/20 or 20/21 seasons due to COVID and I am not counting auto bids. 21 wins: Every Big East team with at least 21 wins on Selection Sunday has made the field. 20 wins: Big East teams with exactly 20 wins have gone dancing 33 out of 35 times (St. John's in 13/14 and Marquette in 15/16 are the two exceptions) 19 wins: Big East teams with exactly 19 wins have gone dancing 2 out of 4 times (Marquette in 17/18 and Georgetown in 18/19 are the two exceptions) 18 wins: potential at-large Big East teams with exactly 18 wins have never gone dancing (0-6) To me this is clear data: 21 wins is a lock 20 wins and you are in (barring something unforeseen) 19 wins is 50/50 18 or less wins and you are out [/QUOTE]