I don't know what the line is, but I'd guess less than even. What I'd need to see to believe they could do it is Baylor going out and crushing everyone, every time they play. They didn't really do that the previous season, and the question remains whether their championship run and subsequent improvement will fuel them to do so this upcoming season.
For UConn to beat Baylor, I believe that the 10 girls who return need to be better by themselves than the 11 kids, including Tiff obviously, who were on the 2011-12 team. I think that's very possible; four key underclassmen (KML, Bria, Stef, and Kiah) all have room to improve significantly, and Banks and Caroline could, for different reasons, improve from last season. If Kelly can provide scoring when necessary on a consistent basis, as she started showing signs of doing towards the end of last season, then you really have a dangerous returning nucleus, one very much capable of contending even without the incoming class. And then if you add that incoming class, that might just push you over the top.
Next year's UConn team is going to be fascinating. It's as deep a team as UConn has fielded since the 2000-01 team was fully healthy, but the question will be whether it can forge an identity, have everyone comfortable in their roles, and know who the go-to players are when it counts. The ingredients are there for a really great basketball team, certainly one capable of winning an NC, not to mention capable of defeating Baylor in Hartford next February and ending the streak. I'm certainly going to be there to find out.