Battle for conference crowns - the final showdowns

[DobbsRover2]

Taking a regular season crown is a big plus for NCAA seeds, and can be a trophy to successfully hang your resume on even if you have an early exit from a conference tournament, assuming your other credentials are pretty decent. Of the 6 most major conferences, two titles have already been claimed, B12 for Baylor and PAC for Stanford. But the other four are still up in the air. In the spirit of the present times, my vote for the award for Best Dramatic Potential (without much reference to the quality of the conference) is :

#4. ACC. Duke is undefeated at 13-0 in conference and only home loss this season is to UConn. They have a tough upcoming game at MD, and then host pursuing Miami who are at 11-1, before finishing at UNC. Sagarin ratings have the Devils finishing 16-0, so likely they edge out Miami.

#3. SEC. The Wildcats have lost two in a row, but they still have a one-loss lead over UTenn. Though both KY and the Vols have fairly doable slates remaining, the Wildcats have a game that could be very tough at South Carolina. Even though Sags would project KY running the table, one more loss seems very possible. But UTenn is no longer invincible at home and will need to get up at TBA for their last remaining strong opponent, Arkansas. Murky here.

#2. Big East. Well-known what the scenario here is with both ND and UConn having 1 loss. The big difference for the two teams is that both of ND's tough tests come on the road with Louisville and UConn on tap, while the Huskies have a tester at St. John's and get to host ND. Sagarin would project UConn finishing a game ahead, but with two top teams like these, the blood is going to fly.

#1 Big 10: This fracas is the hardest to project because it involves four teams that are going to do a lot of hitting on each other. The leader at 10-3 is PSU that has two tough games at Purdue and is the host to OSU. Purdue at 9-3 hosts PSU and has semi-tough road games at Michigan and MSU, though neither are world beaters at home. OSU at 9-3 has to play road games at PSU and Nebraska, and they really haven't shown too much on the road. Nebraska is at 8-4 and has a fairly tough game at MSU and also hosts OSU. Could end up something like Purdue-PSU-Nebraska-OSU, but there are bound to be a lot of surprises here.

 

[pap49cba]

Good analysis. However, I would note the following:

"....while the Huskies have a tester at St. John's and get to host ND."

SJU game is at Gampel.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Talking about Arkansas as a "strong" team is only relative to the apparent lapses that the LV's have suffered. Although I have not seen them this year, Arkansas is probably a well coached (Tom Collen) middle of the road team and their only chance of beating Tennessee at TBA is a Tennessee implosion. While we have seen it happen, I doubt it this time.

 

[speedoo]

ACC: Duke has just been hit hard by injuries and is likely down to something like 8 scholarship players plus a walk on so Miami definitely has a shot at this title. ACC winner probably gets a 2 seed, runner up could also get a 2 seed.

SEC: every road game for TN is an adventure so KY has the edge for a 2 seed, runner up gets a 3 I think. Tourney is in Nashville... could Vandy win it?

BE: I think both UConn and ND get 1 seeds, can't see a situation that changes that unless one of them fails to get to BE tourney final. WVU coming on strong, could they get a 3 seed? RU and Hoyas also looking at possible 3/4 seeds. It's conceivable that 5 BE teams could have 1 - 4 seeds. Maybe even 6 if Louisville wins out until late in the BE tourney.

B1G: Even though no team in that conference is good enough for a 2 seed, conference winner may get one. NCAA, please send them to Kingston.

 

[alexrgct]

Not only is the SJU game at Gampel, but it's Tiff's senior night. I agree that SJU isn't a team to overlook, but I just don't see them beating UConn at home, especially not on Tiff's night. I hope she has a great game and an easy win to remember.

I'd swap the Big East and Big 10 just because the BEast is going to be decided by a nationally-televised slugfest between two likely #1 seeds, whereas the Big 10 features a number of teams who are unlikely to contend in the tourney.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Good analysis. However, I would note the following:

"....while the Huskies have a tester at St. John's and get to host ND."

SJU game is at Gampel.

Oops, I was looking at SJU's schedule and got it backwards. But right, that does make the final swing a wee bit more in Huskies' favor, though even with the home winning streak nothing can be assumed against good teams.

As for Arkansas, they are higher rated than South Carolina, which pulled the upset at TBA, so it seems likely that the Hogs have at least a shot this year at UTenn if the Vols' intensity slips back following the KY game. Vols may have gotten things straightened out, but with the coaching situation as is, who knows?

 

[MilfordHusky]

Several big games. Given their rankings and history--including a notable book--the UConn v. Notre Dame game is the biggest. The BY needs to be in full throat all game long!

 

[pap49cba]

Shame the game is so late in the evening. Some of us BYers may nod off....

 

[ed4ourgirls]

I was going to suggest looking at the A10 race, since Temple is only a
game back. But the Bonnie's last three games are against pretty lousy
teams, so it looks like the A10 title was effectively decided by the Bonnie's
Jan 11 win at Temple.

In the Mountain West San Diego St. still has to visit Colorado St. ( 1 game
back), so that title is still in doubt.