Battle for #1 Seeds

[Wbbfan1]

From a Debbie Antonelli Tweet
K this out! Interesting for #1 seeds! @BaylorWBB & @ndwbb slam dunk! Who are the other #1 seeds? Is it this simple for committee or will geography rule? Do you think "G Curve" continues to dominate women's tourney? Want a format change now?

 

[TheFarmFan]

It's cool the way that she looks at a diverse array of metrics and ranking systems, like 5 different ways of measuring the exact same quasi-meaningless RPI statistic...

 

[bbballfan23]

No offense to Debbie but the battle is over. For Baylor, ND & UConn. The last #1 could change but I think Ms st has earned that.

 

[ME Husky Fan]

I wonder how the stats might look if it incorporated top 10, 25 and 100 losses? To me that's a more telling statistic.

 

[TheFarmFan]

No offense to Debbie but the battle is over. For Baylor, ND & UConn. The last #1 could change but I think Ms st has earned that.

...earned it by beating exactly zero top 10 teams, and the fewest top 25, while playing nearly the weakest schedule among the contenders? Hmm...

 

[GoingPostal]

As long as the Huskies are in the AAC this will be an annual discussion. Geno does the best he can to schedule non-conference games against the best programs. That's all he can do.

 

[ed4ourgirls]

If you want to compare teams using the RPI stat, here's another way of using it.

Let's compare the average RPI of the teams each team lost to. Below I give the
average RPI of the teams each team lost to and the average RPI rank of the teams
each team lost to.

Team______________Ave RPI_Ave Rank

UConn_____________.7006______2.5
Louisville___________.6826______7.7
Baylor_____________.6815______4.0
Miss.St.____________.6393_____17.0
Notre Dame________.6280_____20.7
Oregon____________.6204_____26.5
Stanford___________.6107_____45.0

Yes, I know, this isn't a definitive stat either.

 

[MSGRET]

So far UConn has beat 2 Conference champions, ND and DePaul, one on the road and one at home. They beat both of them by double digits. They lost to 2 top five teams on the road, so their body of work should be good enough to be the 3rd #1. Only two teams have a record better or equal to UConn, that is Baylor and Miss St.

 

[SimpleDawg]

The last #1 is between Louisville and Mississippi State whether you like it or not. I'm not going to cry injustice if Louisville gets selected over us because I can see why they could be, but of course I would like us to get #1, and if we do I'll take that gift. Also, wisdom will tell me it's better to play in a bracket with Oregon than a bracket with UConn. But then I also see some of the arguments people say about how we're not a good match-up for UConn. You never know what bracket will end up being better for you; I guess I'll just sit back for this.

....

 

[Blueballer]

Maybe Debbie also didn't notice when they tried shipping teams to exotic locations in the early rounds nobody showed up. This isn't Men's basketball. (And besides UCONN in Albany - what "G Curve" is she complaining about?) UCONN seems to be her big example.

 

[Yorkeez4]

This is another example of picking a metric you like to prove the conclusion you want. I guess she didn’t notice that UConn trounced her top team and the only blemishes on the record are to the second and third teams on the list. But don’t let thought get in the way of metrics.

The NCAA has acknowledged RPI to be a flawed metric and created the NET metric on the men’s side. Why have they not incorporated this on the women’s side?

Unfortunately, there is no unbiased metric, and never will be so we can only hope that the committee is capable of looking at actual results and making intelligent decisions. The results will always be flawed but limiting the flaws should be the goal.

 

[Plebe]

This is another example of picking a metric you like to prove the conclusion you want. I guess she didn’t notice that UConn trounced her top team and the only blemishes on the record are to the second and third teams on the list. But don’t let thought get in the way of metrics.

The NCAA has acknowledged RPI to be a flawed metric and created the NET metric on the men’s side. Why have they not incorporated this on the women’s side?

Unfortunately, there is no unbiased metric, and never will be so we can only hope that the committee is capable of looking at actual results and making intelligent decisions. The results will always be flawed but limiting the flaws should be the goal.

The committee doesn't go strictly by RPI anyway. That has never been the be-all end-all. UCF with an RPI of #15 is not going to be a 4 seed. Just to cite one example.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Notes to Debbie:
(1) Your bias is showing
(2) There is a committee who will do THEIR jobs on this... announcement next Monday.

 

[huskeynut]

Debbie does the NCAA's should be the title.

She has consistently championed Louisville all season with ND next. But like all others, she is entitled to her opinion.

 

[Padutch5]

Help me here, but isn’t Stanford the team that has refused to play UCONN the last few years?
I guess they could have built their strength of schedule?

 

[hoopsfan22]

I was hoping to get a 1 seed in Albany, but according to this chart, we're going to be the 6th overall seed and who knows where we end up now.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

I was hoping to get a 1 seed in Albany, but according to this chart, we're going to be the 6th overall seed and who knows where we end up now.

yeah... I think we're good. I believe the chart is Debbie's statistical analysis...for what it's worth. It means nothing as far as the committee is concerned. UCONN will be in Albany...as a 1 or 2... but in the last reveal of the Committee's thinking UCONN was a #1... and UCONN did nothing to cause that to change, while some other teams lost games during conference tournaments to cause them to have less claim to a 1 seed. We'll all know the seeds come Monday..

 

[kenja]

Well. She's wrong on many points. But if you're going to punish UConn for their conference why would Baylor get a pass? The Big 12 isn't exactly a murderer's row either. But once NCAAWB/ESPN (Yes. They are one in the same) saw a chance to push the parity narrative that was it. If Oregon and Louisville hadn't stumbled ND and UConn would have absolutely been battling for last #1 and top #2. The "eyeball test" would have ND and UConn in a debate over overall #1 seed. I'm convinced, barring injury or a massive upset, that is how it will play out.

 

[Hayven]

Does anyone know if they are releasing the #1 seeds prior to the selection show, again?

 

[southofnorth]

Help me here, but isn’t Stanford the team that has refused to play UCONN the last few years?
I guess they could have built their strength of schedule?

They played last year (I think it was the first game for UConn). However, since their OT win at home in 2015, Stanford has not played UConn outside of last year. Not sure if it was a scheduling conflict or another team that was avoiding Goliath, but either way I’m not going to speculate. Hopefully they’ll play again in the near future.

 

[JoePgh]

They played last year (I think it was the first game for UConn). However, since their OT win at home in 2015, Stanford has not played UConn outside of last year. Not sure if it was a scheduling conflict or another team that was avoiding Goliath, but either way I’m not going to speculate. Hopefully they’ll play again in the near future.

Don't you think it had something to do with avoiding Samuelson v. Samuelson drama? If so, that factor will soon be gone.

 

[MilfordHusky]

UConn was #4 overall in the last reveal. Keep in mind that the reveal is from the NCAA, not from Charlie Creme, Debbie Antonelli, or anyone else. Nothing that has happened since then has caused the Huskies to slip. No one below them has done enough to jump over them. Louisville probably dropped below them.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Does anyone know if they are releasing the #1 seeds prior to the selection show, again?

The selection show is 5 days away. There are no additional reveals scheduled before that.

 

[Bear11]

Well. She's wrong on many points. But if you're going to punish UConn for their conference why would Baylor get a pass? The Big 12 isn't exactly a murderer's row either. But once NCAAWB/ESPN (Yes. They are one in the same) saw a chance to push the parity narrative that was it.

Lets not get carried away here. I won't claim that the Big 12 the best conference in the land, but it is no cakewalk. By both Massey and RPI, the Big 12 is the 3rd best conference, better than both the Big 10 and the SEC. The AAC is 7th by Massey and 9th by RPI. On an individual basis, Baylor has a more difficult schedule than UConn by both Massey and RPI. Baylor doesn't get a "pass", it has earned its ranking. Parity has arrived in WCBB, at least for this year, but it hasn't made its way to the AAC.

For the record, there is no doubt in my mind that UConn is and should be a 1 seed. This is just an attempt to stir up a little conversation before the big reveal. I think the 4th 1 seed should go to Louisville if they are healthy. Mississippi State's resume looks to similar to Baylor's from last year, and we were given a 2 seed. Only 1 game against a top 10 team, plus a home loss to an unranked team, should not earn a top seed.

 

[UcMiami]

The issue with P5 conferences is not their RPI which is pretty meaningless to conference champions, it is the strength of the top 4 teams in the conference because those are the only ones that should give a #1 or #2 seeded team a true test. On that basis this year:
ACC is far and away the top conference with all likely to be top 16 teams in the tournament and the 5th team
Miami just on the outside though Massey has them at #16 (as does the coaches poll)

Number 2 is pretty clearly Pac12 with three teams likely to host even if the top team is somewhat flawed in terms of record. The fourth team is UCLA somewhere around 20th.

#3 and #4 - the Big12/SEC are weak third/fourth with Baylor a clear #1 and Iowa St somewhere in the mid teens and hosting, followed by Texas clinging in the top 25 and Kansas St somewhere around 30. (Neither team should really provide a challenge to Baylor and they didn't) And the SEC with SCar which should not host but probably will in the late teens and TX Am and Kentucky also hanging in the same area.

#5 is Big10 here because the best teams are Maryland and Iowa both outside the top ten and hosting but followed by Rutgers in the mid twenties and the Mischigan in the 30s.

(I drop the SEC behind the Big12 because MissSt, Kentucky, and Texas A&M played pretty awful schedules even compared to the BIG12 top 4.)

In terms of #1 Seeds, I would likely give Louisville the 4th #1 seed - I would not penalize them for losing twice to ND, just like the committee used to discount the ND/Uconn loses when they were playing three times a year while beating all other comers. They would probably be just as happy to have MissST get the last #1 in Portland OR and take their chances as the #2 in Albany.

For Uconn, I do not think it makes a difference - one or two in Albany is basically the same and the committee will not move them away. Just as ND or Louisville was slated to Chicago and Oregon or Stanford were going to be in Portland.