Bad news, Stewie graduated...all hope is lost..Part 1

[DavidinNaples]

It's official. The 2016-17 roster is out and Breanna Stewart is not on it. Rumors she graduated and is tearing up the WNBA are apparently true. As if that wasn't bad enough, Mo and Tuck are gone as well. There goes 1,632 points (48.8% of total), 606 rebounds (39.1%) and 465 assists (56.6%) from last season. Why even play this season's games, right?

The truth is UConn survived the graduation of Sue Bird, D.T., Maya & Tina, and will play well this year, just like in the past. Geno and CD didn't leave, Gabby & Kia & KLS and others are back and new talents including Dangerfield have arrived. Maybe the average margin of victory will only be 30 points per game..??

Here are three statistical categories where Stewie's talents may be missed the most. Just one person's opinion.

1. Defensive rebounds - Defensive rebounds are perhaps more important than the offensive kind because your opponent no longer has the ball and can't score. Defensive rebounds allow your offensive to run, pass and score. Stewie had 243 defensive rebounds and that was 105 more than 2nd place Gabby. That is 243 times the other team had to run back to their defensive end of the court, wonder exactly how long Stewie's arms really are and try to keep UConn from extending their lead.

2. Free throws - If you can't cover a player, you foul them. At least that was the defensive strategy last year against Stewart. Her 146 free throw attempts led the team by 66. Tuck was 2nd with 80 attempts. Of the returning players, Kia Nurse was highest with 65 tries from the charity stripe. Stewie's 122 made free throws compares nicely to the 172 combined made free throws by all 38 of UConn's opponents. It also didn't hurt that Stewie made her free throws at an 84% rate.

3. Blocked shots - Stewie's blocked shot total of 126 was over half of the Huskies 241 total. The threat of getting blocked by Stewie probably altered or prevented a couple of hundred more attempts. And then there was that magical sequence when she blocked three shots in succession from a layup to a 10 footer to a 3 pointer. Stewie being Stewie..! The 2nd highest shot blocker was Napheesa with 47, but then it drops to 21 for Natalie. Hard to replace that human eraser as the last line of defense.

Geno and CD will adjust. Players will step up. New talent will emerge. Maybe there will be fewer blocked shots, but more steals. Each UConn team eventually forges an identity and ends up doing what they do best. Whatever the results, with only two seniors graduating after this season, the best is still to come. Go Huskies..!!

 

[UcMiami]

Fun stuff David - but interesting to me is your choice of stats because of my own 'bias':
1. Defensive rebounds - only perhaps 50% of defensive rebounds are actually 'contested' (in some games it can be a lot less), and a large percentage of those rebounds are pretty randomly distributed when two or more defenders could get the rebound and one defers to the other. Stewart is currently leading the W in defensive rebounds but has actually very few offensive rebounds - in fact three of her teammates are tied with her at 1.2 per game and Jewell is getting 1.1 per game. No knock on Stewart and her leaping ability and long arms are certainly responsible for one or two rebounds per game. As long as Uconn players continue to pay attention to blocking out on the defensive end, they should be fine.

2. Free throws - Chong actually averaged almost the same number of FTs per minutes played as Stewart, and Butler, Williams and Collier were higher per minutes than Tuck, so all is not lost.

3. Blocked shots - I grant you a serious intimidation factor, and Stewart became very good at keeping blocked shots in play, but a steal which is specifically a change in possession is much more valuable than a blocked shot which only occasionally results in a changed possession. In fact your example of her three blocks in succession is a perfect example of the issue - they all occurred on the same offensive possession, and none of the three actually changed the possession - the shot clock violation changed the possession. (Admittedly the blocks ended up causing the violation - but one steal in that game was equal to all three of those blocks.)

With all of the above said ... Boy are we going to miss Stewart and Tuck and Jefferson!

 

[Kaizen]

But we still have Kia, Katie Lou, Gabby and Napheesa the all Americans.
Hopeful either Chong and Butler can make a new level this year.
Then we also have Crystal, Kyla and Molly ....

 

[Charliebball]

There will be many times this coming season when Stewart's defensive presence will be sorely missed.........she is simply irreplaceable..........who is going to fill her very large shoes with some success? That's what I'm waiting to see........it's all hands on deck this year!!!!!

 

[rvwsleep]

There will be many times this coming season when Stewart's defensive presence will be sorely missed....she is simply irreplaceable.....who is going to fill her very large shoes with some success? That's what I'm waiting to see...it's all hands on deck this year!!!!!

Agreed. It could be argued that Mo, Tuck and Stewie were the 3 best defensive players at their positions in wcbb. That's difficult to replace.

 

[rugbymate]

Feeling very sad after reading your post...Stewie, in addition to being a fantastic person, was the total entertainment package and just fascinating to watch. we may never see anything like it again. A couple of things that are not embedded in the stats include the confidence that the entire team had when Stewie was in the game. Its been my experience that when the team plays confidently...they play well. Another attribute that we will miss is Stewies lane presence....the other four teammates could defend up close and personal knowing that Stewie was the last line of defense. A lot of turnovers were created by the resultant defensive pressure that don't turn up on an individuals stat sheet.
Fortunately we have some terrific and entertaining players to watch this year and am looking forward to watching this team develop its own identity in the post Stewie (and Mo/Tuck) era. They will , IMO, be very much in the NC hunt.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Truth is the biggest test this year falls on us, the fans. Will you fall on the side of the analytical, yet supportive fan, who roots, roots, roots for the home team? Or, will you be a carping, negative presence should a dark cloud drift by? We will have game threads where you will have a chance to announce yourselves to one and all. For me, a team that has given me over 30 years of excellence and so much joy, I know where I'm going to be all year long; no matter the score. It will be exciting to wonder what may come in this season and for each player. I can be analytical and I'll weigh in on that from time to time, but for now I'm just thinking: Go Huskies. I Bleed Blue! Do you?

 

[MilfordHusky]

Agreed. It could be argued that Mo, Tuck and Stewie were the 3 best defensive players at their positions in wcbb. That's difficult to replace.

And one of them--the shortest one--was the National Defensive Player of the Year.

 

[johnnyc]

One chapter has ended another begins. Looking forward to the current players continuing the story of winning UConn basketball.

UConn will put a championship caliber team on the floor. Stick around.

 

[UcMiami]

Truth is the biggest test this year falls on us, the fans. Will you fall on the side of the analytical, yet supportive fan, who roots, roots, roots for the home team? Or, will you be a carping, negative presence should a dark cloud drift by? We will have game threads where you will have a chance to announce yourselves to one and all. For me, a team that has given me over 30 years of excellence and so much joy, I know where I'm going to be all year long; no matter the score. It will be exciting to wonder what may come in this season and for each player. I can be analytical and I'll weigh in on that from time to time, but for now I'm just thinking: Go Huskies. I Bleed Blue! Do you?

Oh man, that is a tough choice.
I think I'll go for option 2! There is always more material on that side - and the easy standbys to be trotted out ... 'well she is OK, but she certainly isn't in _____'s class', where blank is filled in with the appropriate choice from 'column' A: Sue, DT, Tina, Maya, Breanna, or Moriah.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Oh man, that is a tough choice.
I think I'll go for option 2! There is always more material on that side - and the easy standbys to be trotted out ... 'well she is OK, but she certainly isn't in _____'s class', where blank is filled in with the appropriate choice from 'column' A: Sue, DT, Tina, Maya, Breanna, or Moriah.

LOL, my ribs are hurting big time!

 

[pacific 44]

Losing the big three will be very sad
But that doesn't mean the team will be bad
This team next year
Will make us all cheer
And April's results will make us all glad

This team will be better than most of us now realize.I don't know how to start a thread but i would love to know people's opinion on whether or not having closer games with a legitimate chance to lose will be more or less exciting than blowing the doors off of every opponent, and why.Thank you in advance if someone starts such a thread.

 

[Kaizen]

Losing the big three will be very sad
But that doesn't mean the team will be bad
This team next year
Will make us all cheer
And April's results will make us all glad

This team will be better than most of us now realize.I don't know how to start a thread but i would love to know people's opinion on whether or not having closer games with a legitimate chance to lose will be more or less exciting than blowing the doors off of every opponent, and why.Thank you in advance if someone starts such a thread.

Hope you don't mind I modify small words....

"Losing the big three will be very sad
But that doesn't mean the team will be bad
This team next year
Will make us so glad
And April's results will make us even great"

 

[Wally East]

Hope you don't mind I modify small words....

"Losing the big three will be very sad
But that doesn't mean the team will be bad
This team next year
Will make us so glad
And April's results will make us even great"

But the rhyming scheme ...

 

[wbfree]

Agreed. It could be argued that Mo, Tuck and Stewie were the 3 best defensive players at their positions in wcbb. That's difficult to replace.

I agree with Mo and Stewie, but not with Tuck. Tuck was more of a liability on defense.

 

[msf22b]

I agree with Mo and Stewie, but not with Tuck. Tuck was more of a liability on defense.

Strongly disagree

Tuck was a wonder woman in guarding large forwards and centers
(often much more massive than her).
I particularly recall the South Carolina game 2 seasons ago in which
Alaina Coates was reduced to a whining non-entity.
And this was not an isolated example.

 

[f1f1ferrari]

I don't think I'm going to worry too much about this season. After 2002, we lost Sue, Swin. Asjha and Tamika, and all they did was win the national championship the next year. Granted, they still had Diana, but not too much else (Turner and Strother were just freshmen). This year's team has more really good players on the roster than 2002-2003 did (IMO). Go Huskies!

 

[j66kicker]

I don't think I'm going to worry too much about this season. After 2002, we lost Sue, Swin. Asjha and Tamika, and all they did was win the national championship the next year. Granted, they still had Diana, but not too much else (Turner and Strother were just freshmen). This year's team has more really good players on the roster than 2002-2003 did (IMO). Go Huskies!

It's been my observation over the years that national championship teams always have bona fide first team All-Americans - usually more than one (unless we had Diana - then one was enough). So who will that be this year? Anyone? IMO if it's anyone it will be KLS. Is that enough?

 

[f1f1ferrari]

If Napheesa builds on what we saw last year, she's got a shot

 

[msf22b]

I am entirely undecided at the prospects for this team

Will they be competitive? Of course.
Will they be represented in the final-4? very possible
Will they win the National Championship? Questionable.

One can look at the positives as have been cited above but so much has been lost in the graduation of the big three (much more than just statistics...the heart and soul cut out)
That it's almost impossible to define what the ultimate character of this group will be.

Who stepped up big time in moments of stress last season? Certainly Napheesa, to some extent Gabby, to a lesser extent KLS.
I expect big time Vet play from Kia...
Still, it feels a little thin.

Natalie and Saniya could sure help if their contribution expands...but who bets on this?
At least one of the rookies should be a pleasant surprise
Putting a finger on how this team functions is a great mystery for one observer at least.

Then there is the matter of the coach's mind and body having been elsewhere this summer.
The last time around resulted in a way below-average start and evident frustration on his and the team's part in dealing with what ultimately became one of the greatest classes in UConn history. Surely, this getting off-to a wrong foot beginning was not the kid's fault. The achievement of winning the National championships and Stewie's last-minute embracement (is this a word?) of her natural dominance made us all forget the tortuous path in arriving there (check out the ND final...a one woman wrecking ball...should be required viewing at least once a season for all UConn fans) .

This summer feels different though...It seems that last time, coach relied to a large extent unofficially at least) on his assistants in Olympic prep.
Seemingly less so, this summer. More stay at home coaches for the undergrads, a plus.

Also, the superior attributes of this splendid assemblage of vets and first-timers. All functioning at the top of their game, surely made the coaching assignment less tense...Aside from the pre-season Parker nonsense; it appeared to be a smooth ride straight to the inevitable championship.

Perhaps (unlike last time) Geno will start the season refreshed and strong out of the gate. But he's 4-years older and let's not forget what unfolded for Serena last evening on short rest.

Handicapping this season, is like gazing into the crystal ball. Anyone who says they can foresee this groups future with any certainty has my felicitations.

MSF
ST Johnsbury VT

 

[UcMiami]

I agree with Mo and Stewie, but not with Tuck. Tuck was more of a liability on defense.

I think you should ask SC fans about that 'liability' you cite - I don't think they or Coates would agree.
Tuck with her strength, quickness, and smarts allowed Stewart more freedom to roam on defense and took a lot of the physical pounding that kept Stewart fresher.

 

[UcMiami]

MSF - nice post, but I disagree with the 'distraction of the coach' argument in relation to the London games - there really isn't a lot of input from coaches during the summer, and that 2012-13 team's problems were integral to the team not the coaches - only three of the returning players had experienced an NCAA title run as freshman/ RS sophmores, a deep bench player (Buck), a broken down guard (Doty), and Faris who was the only full time starter. The deepest talent on the team was in the freshman class. That team was going to struggle to put it all together regardless of where the coach spent his summer.

The same is likely to be true with this current team, but at least they do have a lot of recent championship experience. It is again a very young team coping with a complete revamping at both ends of the floor, so struggles will occur.

 

[msf22b]

UC

When I first broached my Geno Olympic theory at the time (before the season had begun), there was a howl of indignation...Ice came around after a while.
I would not underestimate the importance of the physical presence of coaches during the summer.
They might not be allowed to run scrimmages, but their office door is rarely locked and they are permitted to watch the kids, even w/o
formal interaction...In addition theres is not the stress and aftermath of getting over a a first-time, must-win, legacy situ.

And the key was Geno's words himself...He professed unease with finding the best manner to communicate with the freshman class (which he spoke about on camera; I'm sure the episodes are preserved somewhere and can be found...He had no answers for Stewie's
collapse; finally saying that she'd have to break out of it by herself. (very un-Geno speak).

I am convinced that the team's struggles with Notre Dame, had as much to do with the inadequate preparation of that season as the South Bend team's expertise.

 

[wbfree]

Strongly disagree

Tuck was a wonder woman in guarding large forwards and centers
(often much more massive than her).
I particularly recall the South Carolina game 2 seasons ago in which
Alaina Coates was reduced to a whining non-entity.
And this was not an isolated example.

Just my opinion. I would take Gabby and Napheesa over Tuck defensively. Morgan doesn't guard the perimeter well. Just watch the Stanford game again. It' s was pretty bad.

 

[UcMiami]

Just my opinion. I would take Gabby and Napheesa over Tuck defensively. Morgan doesn't guard the perimeter well. Just watch the Stanford game again. It' s was pretty bad.

Yeah - but ... Morgan had the strength to contend with the opposing forwards and centers, something Gabby does not do well at all, and Collier will struggle with. And her perimeter defense was pretty equal to Stewart and Collier, though not as good as the former guard Williams.