Back in 2012, you'd have taken this

[Matrim55]

This is the reality we've had to face. Hamilton is the jack of all trades, master of none, whose upside isn't as high as we thought.

I still think his ceiling as a college player is very high, and wouldn't be shocked at a Donyell-esque sophomore-to-junior year performance bump.

But our hopes that this was a title contender this year were clearly misplaced. We have to hope this team does what it needs to get into the NCAA, and that it provides useful experiences for Enoch, Adams, and DHam so that next year, with the addition of our new team, we might be able to make a run.

Maybe. I'm just happy that we continue to stock the roster with 4- and 5-star players.

And let's all recall that one great recruiting class is no guarantee of immediate success. I'm going to go back to the Donyell comparison here, since his class is still arguably the best in school history. As freshmen they all struggled, and the team lost in the first weekend of the NCAA tourney. As sophomores they all struggled again, missing the tourney and getting flamed out in the first round of the NIT - this despite Calhoun having brought in a second straight good class.

It was only when Calhoun brought in a third straight great class (the one with Ray, Doron, Kirk King) that we became a consistent, year-over-year winner. Donyell, KO et al needed a couple years of taking their lumps before they were ready to lead as juniors, and they needed a supremely talented cast around them. The same was true of the '99 team -- remember they missed the NCAAs as freshmen despite all the talent and having a couple of good, experienced sophomores on the team as well. It was only after adding two more solid-to-excellent classes that the team jelled.

Most great college basketball teams aren't built in a single year, or even two. Patience is part of the job, and part of being a fan.

 

[tzznandrew]

I still think his ceiling as a college player is very high, and wouldn't be shocked at a Donyell-esque sophomore-to-junior year performance bump.


Maybe. I'm just happy that we continue to stock the roster with 4- and 5-star players.

And let's all recall that one great recruiting class is no guarantee of immediate success. I'm going to go back to the Donyell comparison here, since his class is still arguably the best in school history. As freshmen they all struggled, and the team lost in the first weekend of the NCAA tourney. As sophomores they all struggled again, missing the tourney and getting flamed out in the first round of the NIT - this despite Calhoun having brought in a second straight good class.

It was only when Calhoun brought in a third straight great class (the one with Ray, Doron, Kirk King) that we became a consistent, year-over-year winner. Donyell, KO et al needed a couple years of taking their lumps before they were ready to lead as juniors, and they needed a supremely talented cast around them. The same was true of the '99 team -- remember they missed the NCAAs as freshmen despite all the talent and having a couple of good, experienced sophomores on the team as well. It was only after adding two more solid-to-excellent classes that the team jelled.

Most great college basketball teams aren't built in a single year, or even two. Patience is part of the job, and part of being a fan.

DHam isn't the athlete that Donyell was, so I don't buy that happening. I'm willing to bet DHam can be a very good player, and probably our best overall player on a very good team. I thought his ceiling was Butler. I no longer think that. I don't think there's a good comparison for him, as he's a unique player. But I imagine his peak somewhere more in the range of AJ Price or Jeff Adrien. Both very good players who we loved, and who could put a team on their back here and there. But not with the consistency that they could carry Selvie and two talented freshmen to the doors of the Final Four. That's not a knock on him, really. It's just a readjustment of expectations.

As to your point about patience...yes. Agreed. I don't think my post was in any way meant to challenge that. It's more about recognizing how poorly many misjudged this year and hoping for a difference next year.

Adams will improve but likely hit a sophomore slump. Larrier will bring more versatility. Alterique will show flashes. Amida will Amida. I think that, with our incoming bench, will make next year's team better than this one, and more consistent. But unless there's a big leap from Adams or Hamilton, or unless Gilbert comes in and grabs the keys, we're two years away from the sustained regular season success old UConn teams one had, which is more a testament to the old UConn teams than a criticism of current ones.

 

[Matrim55]

Sadly, I had a feeling this was going to happen today.
The reason: It was a very big game. I'll leave it at that. Acceptance.

I don't disagree with this, and felt the same way.

However, there's a very real reason I chose the 2012 and 1993 seasons to compare this year to. Losses like these - lack of effort, lack of focus, lack of defensive nous - have a way of educating kids on how to play the game, and that education doesn't necessarily show itself immediately.

 

[Matrim55]

DHam isn't the athlete that Donyell was, so I don't buy that happening. I'm willing to bet DHam can be a very good player, and probably our best overall player on a very good team. I thought his ceiling was Butler. I no longer think that.

I agree that DHam isn't an elite enough athlete to be a lottery pick, but I think his skillset will continue to get honed and he'll be an All-American caliber college player.

 

[CTBasketball]

Call me crazy, but I feel like if we traded our 2014 title for 3-4 years of regular season domination and a ticket to the P5 we would be in a much better position to win more championships down the road. Comets eventually flame out.

 

[intlzncster]

I still think his ceiling as a college player is very high, and wouldn't be shocked at a Donyell-esque sophomore-to-junior year performance bump.


Maybe. I'm just happy that we continue to stock the roster with 4- and 5-star players.

And let's all recall that one great recruiting class is no guarantee of immediate success. I'm going to go back to the Donyell comparison here, since his class is still arguably the best in school history. As freshmen they all struggled, and the team lost in the first weekend of the NCAA tourney. As sophomores they all struggled again, missing the tourney and getting flamed out in the first round of the NIT - this despite Calhoun having brought in a second straight good class.

It was only when Calhoun brought in a third straight great class (the one with Ray, Doron, Kirk King) that we became a consistent, year-over-year winner. Donyell, KO et al needed a couple years of taking their lumps before they were ready to lead as juniors, and they needed a supremely talented cast around them. The same was true of the '99 team -- remember they missed the NCAAs as freshmen despite all the talent and having a couple of good, experienced sophomores on the team as well. It was only after adding two more solid-to-excellent classes that the team jelled.

Most great college basketball teams aren't built in a single year, or even two. Patience is part of the job, and part of being a fan.

People hate perspective. Perspective requires them to have patience. Which doesn't exist in internet land.

 

[tzznandrew]

Call me crazy, but I feel like if we traded our 2014 title for 3-4 years of regular season domination and a ticket to the P5 we would be in a much better position to win more championships down the road. Comets eventually flame out.

Championships are rare. We have more than freaking Kansas.

Never ever trade the pinnacle of the sport.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Call me crazy, but I feel like if we traded our 2014 title for 3-4 years of regular season domination and a ticket to the P5 we would be in a much better position to win more championships down the road. Comets eventually flame out.

The hypothetical absolutely sucks to have to turn in a title, but an ACC bid combined with strong regular seasons and the collective psyche of the program would be way different.

1 completely unexpected run to a title masked a lot of bad things that have played out on and off the court for us.

 

[CTBasketball]

Championships are rare. We have more than freaking Kansas.

Never ever trade the pinnacle of the sport.

The hypothetical absolutely sucks to have to turn in a title, but an ACC bid combined with strong regular seasons and the collective psyche of the program would be way different.

1 completely unexpected run to a title masked a lot of bad things that have played out on and off the court for us.

That's why I said call me crazy - the 2014 title was special. Losing does a lot to the mind

 

[gtcam]

Championships are rare. We have more than freaking Kansas.

Never ever trade the pinnacle of the sport.

EXACTLY
I will bet 80% of the Kansas fans would trade their consecutive league titles for one of UConn's titles in the past 15 years

 

[djct1999]

Most of the board is terrible at assessing expectations for a coming season on a year in year out basis. They totally overrate guys, overlook opposing (weak) teams, don't understand that losses are happening to great teams across MCBB at what seems like a greater rate than years ago, etc etc. These people's overinflated expectations, and their inabiliy to reconcile them with reality, are the problem.

And how is this any different than what guys are doing about next year and the incoming recruiting class?

 

[djct1999]

I don't disagree with this, and felt the same way.

However, there's a very real reason I chose the 2012 and 1993 seasons to compare this year to. Losses like these - lack of effort, lack of focus, lack of defensive nous - have a way of educating kids on how to play the game, and that education doesn't necessarily show itself immediately.

2012 was following a title year. This team is following a 1st round loss in the NIT. I agree in hindsight that our expectations may have been to high for this team, but they are certainly talented enough to make the tourney. 2012 did. If this team doesn't, giving our conference affiliation, missing consecutive ncaa tournaments is a cause for concern. There is no way to sugar coat that.

 

[tzznandrew]

Not worried about losing Gibbs but what about Miller, any ideas on his replacement? In a league like this we have to be like Calipari was at Memphis, winning everything in conference especially when your OOC is not that successful. Adams and Gilbert can create shots so thats an upside next year.

Sorry to return to this, but I think a illustrative example: KenPom CUSA stats in 2008 (1-seed Memphis), 2009 (3-seed Memphis), 2014-16 AAC. All of these are after post season tournaments except this year.

The big difference you'll notice is a lack of other Top 50 teams, and a slew of borderline NIT teams in their place. We haven't had that, generally, in the AAC.

2008 CUSA
2. Memphis (38-2) (NCAA 1-seed)
61. UAB (23-11) (NIT 5-seed)
65. Houston (24-10)
70. Tulsa (25-14)
98. Southern Miss (19-14)
101. UCF (16-15)
116. UTEP (19-14)
145. Marshall (16-14)
171. Tulane (17-15)
222. East Carolina (11-19)
290. SMU (10-20)
319. Rice (3-27)

2009 CUSA
2. Memphis (33-4) (NCAA 2-seed)
57. UAB (22-12) (NIT 7-seed)
60. Tulsa (25-11) (NIT 4-seed)
72. Houston (21-12)
80. UTEP (23-14)
140. UCF (17-14)
154. Southern Miss (15-17)
158. Marshall (15-17)
170. Tulane (14-17)
208. SMU (9-21)
218. East Carolina (13-17)
232. Rice (10-22)

2014 American
1. Louisville (31-6) (NCAA 4-seed)
8. UConn (32-8) (NCAA 7-seed)
23. Cincy (27-7) (NCAA 5-seed)
30. SMU (27-10) (NIT 1-seed)
37. Memphis (24-10) (NCAA 8-seed)
125. Houston (17-16)
159. Temple (9-22)
164. UCF (13-18)
166. Rutgers (12-21)
186. USF (12-20)

2015 American
23. SMU (27-7) (NCAA 6-seed)
34. Cincy (23-11) (NCAA 8-seed)
54. Temple (26-11) (NIT 1-seed)
72. UConn (20-15) (NIT 4-seed)
84 Tulsa (23-11) (NIT 2-seed)
92. Memphis (18-14)
220. Houston (13-19)
229. East Carolina (14-19)
238. Tulane (15-16)
287. UCF (12-18)
295. USF (9-23)

2016 American
20. SMU (24-4)
28. UConn (20-9)
29. Cincy (21-8)
43. Tulsa (19-10)
52. Houston (21-8)
91. Temple (18-10)
107. Memphis (16-13)
197. UCF (11-16)
209. East Carolina (11-18)
226. Tulane (10-19)
227. USF (7-22)

 

[Matrim55]

Sorry to return to this, but I think a illustrative example: KenPom CUSA stats in 2008 (1-seed Memphis), 2009 (3-seed Memphis), 2014-16 AAC. All of these are after post season tournaments except this year.

The big difference you'll notice is a lack of other Top 50 teams, and a slew of borderline NIT teams in their place. We haven't had that, generally, in the AAC.

2008 CUSA
2. Memphis (38-2) (NCAA 1-seed)
61. UAB (23-11) (NIT 5-seed)
65. Houston (24-10)
70. Tulsa (25-14)
98. Southern Miss (19-14)
101. UCF (16-15)
116. UTEP (19-14)
145. Marshall (16-14)
171. Tulane (17-15)
222. East Carolina (11-19)
290. SMU (10-20)
319. Rice (3-27)

2009 CUSA
2. Memphis (33-4) (NCAA 2-seed)
57. UAB (22-12) (NIT 7-seed)
60. Tulsa (25-11) (NIT 4-seed)
72. Houston (21-12)
80. UTEP (23-14)
140. UCF (17-14)
154. Southern Miss (15-17)
158. Marshall (15-17)
170. Tulane (14-17)
208. SMU (9-21)
218. East Carolina (13-17)
232. Rice (10-22)

2014 American
1. Louisville (31-6) (NCAA 4-seed)
8. UConn (32-8) (NCAA 7-seed)
23. Cincy (27-7) (NCAA 5-seed)
30. SMU (27-10) (NIT 1-seed)
37. Memphis (24-10) (NCAA 8-seed)
125. Houston (17-16)
159. Temple (9-22)
164. UCF (13-18)
166. Rutgers (12-21)
186. USF (12-20)

2015 American
23. SMU (27-7) (NCAA 6-seed)
34. Cincy (23-11) (NCAA 8-seed)
54. Temple (26-11) (NIT 1-seed)
72. UConn (20-15) (NIT 4-seed)
84 Tulsa (23-11) (NIT 2-seed)
92. Memphis (18-14)
220. Houston (13-19)
229. East Carolina (14-19)
238. Tulane (15-16)
287. UCF (12-18)
295. USF (9-23)

2016 American
20. SMU (24-4)
28. UConn (20-9)
29. Cincy (21-8)
43. Tulsa (19-10)
52. Houston (21-8)
91. Temple (18-10)
107. Memphis (16-13)
197. UCF (11-16)
209. East Carolina (11-18)
226. Tulane (10-19)
227. USF (7-22)

Great post.

Also want to add this point: In his first 5 seasons at Memphis, Calipari won exactly 1 NCAA tourney game. It took him a long time and multiple elite recruiting classes in a row before he built that program into what people remember it being from the second half of the '00s.

So the folks saying that we're not dominating this conference a la Calipari-era Memphis is a cause for concern are truly benighted.

 

[zls44]

So in 2008, CUSA had 5 Top-100 teams. And now the AAC has...six.

Wow. What a league. A gauntlet.

 

[Matrim55]

So in 2008, CUSA had 5 Top-100 teams. And now the AAC has...six.

Wow. What a league. A gauntlet.

So in 2008, CUSA had 1 top-60 team. And now the AAC has... five.

 

[TRest]

Great post.

Also want to add this point: In his first 5 seasons at Memphis, Calipari won exactly 1 NCAA tourney game. It took him a long time and multiple elite recruiting classes in a row before he built that program into what people remember it being from the second half of the '00s.

So the folks saying that we're not dominating this conference a la Calipari-era Memphis is a cause for concern are truly benighted.

Cal didn't inherit the UConn program either, it was a grease fire.

 

[SubbaBub]

The chicken salad production concern around here is a determined lot.

 

[zls44]

So in 2008, CUSA had 1 top-60 team. And now the AAC has... five.

That Memphis team was 20x better than any team to go through the AAC in its history. Even UConn 14, Louisville 13.

 

[tzznandrew]

So in 2008, CUSA had 5 Top-100 teams. And now the AAC has...six.

Wow. What a league. A gauntlet.

Well, I never called it a gauntlet. Also, wrong context:

So in 2008, CUSA had 1 top-60 team. And now the AAC has... five.

 

[tzznandrew]

Cal didn't inherit the UConn program either, it was a grease fire.

And KO didn't inherit the UConn program in its 1990-2009 prime. It's recruiting was suffering because of the impending sanctions, it just came off a disappointing year and lost Drummond, AO, Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, Lamb, and Roscoe to the NBA and other programs. It returned Napier, Boatright, Daniels and a bunch of low level bench players without the opportunity for the post-season and without the ability to go all out in recruiting, all while being demoted to the AAC.

Sure, what Cal did was harder; KO's had a tough job himself and did here what Cal couldn't at Memphis.

The point here wasn't to compare those two coaches, who have the same number of titles, but instead to dismiss the assumption that the late 2000s CUSA (which got Memphis and no-one else into the NCAAs) was equivalent to the AAC. The AAC isn't perfect, but it's a big step up from that...and it will keep improving until UConn and Cincy are rescued from it.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Back to the 'eye test' questions for a moment:Are you enjoying yourself while watching this team play its games? Which of the CBSS losses do you recommend that I stream on Uconnhuskygames.com?What should I look for during the last 5-10 minutes?I'm a fan of defensive stops, made free throws, and protecting the ball. Am I greedy and unrealistic to favor focus, hustle and heads up play? I ask with sincerity and toward perspective after reading all within this thread.

 

[dennismenace]

I don't disagree with this, and felt the same way.

However, there's a very real reason I chose the 2012 and 1993 seasons to compare this year to. Losses like these - lack of effort, lack of focus, lack of defensive nous - have a way of educating kids on how to play the game, and that education doesn't necessarily show itself immediately.

Point made. Let's hope that the kids have the humility to see things as they really are and accept that there is no substitute for "10 toes in at level 5". I remember JC taking the blame on himself when he vowed he would never again put all his trust in recruiters when he talked about one of his teams that had immense athletic talent but just weren't coachable. No substitute for character. So far the future players look to be part of a very bright future.

 

[Matrim55]

Bump.

You'd have taken this. There have been some bumps in the road, and there will be more to come, but c'mon. We're all good, and we're getting better.