Azzi vs. KLS as Freshmen Shooters: A Statistical Comparison

[JoePgh]

I am seriously concerned that this post will not age well, which would be a very good thing. For example, it will not age well if Azzi goes 8-for-10 from the arc in either of the two remaining games in the Bahamas.

However, for those of you who are inclined to disparage Azzi's shooting performance thus far (and I recognize that most of you think her shooting problem will be temporary), I thought these statistics from the first 10 games of Katie Lou Samuelson's college career might be of interest:

KLS vs. Azzi -- Statistics on KLS Shooting in 2015 as a UConn Freshman

@Ohio State, 11/16/2015, KLS 1-3, 0-2, 17 min
Kansas State, 11/23/2015, KLS 2-8, 1-7, 17 min
Nebraska, 11/28/2015, KLS 5-8, 2-4, 22 min
@Chattanooga, 11/30/2015, KLS 2-9, 1-5, 20 min
@DePaul, 12/2/2015, KLS 4-6, 2-4, 12 min
Notre Dame, 12/5/2015, KLS 4-7, 3-6, 23 min
@Colgate, 12/2/2015, KLS 2-6, 0-4, 19 min
Florida State, 12/11/2015, KLS 0-1, 0-1, 3 min
LSU, 12/21/2015, KLS 3-9, 1-7, 32 min
Maryland, 12/28, KLS 1-4, 1-4, 16 min

FIRST 10 GAMES SUMMARY FOR KLS:
Field goals: 24-for-61, 39.3%
3-pointers: 11-for-44, 25.0%
Average minutes: 181 minutes in 10 games = 18.1 min/game

I think we would all agree that KLS turned out OK as a shooter at UConn, even in her freshman year. But in her first 10 games, she didn't exactly light up the rim. Does anyone want to place a bet on whether Azzi, in her first 10 games, will equal or exceed KLS's shooting productivity, either overall or on 3-pointers specifically? I think there is at least a 50% chance that she will.

What about whether Azzi will exceed Lou's 18 minutes per game? I think she will get about that number of minutes -- if anything, a few more.

In Lou's case, her high school reputation proved to be a more reliable long-term indicator of her college performance than what she showed in her first few college games. I attribute that to her putting pressure on herself to live up to expectations (i.e., to her press releases), as well as just the difference in speed and intensity between high school basketball and college basketball. But eventually, her talent and preparation proved decisive, and her performance showed it. And I think that today, Azzi is suffering from exactly the same self-pressure and making exactly the same adjustment.

The same thing that eventually happened with Lou will happen with Azzi. Have faith.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Yeah, Lou started slowly, and Anna went 0 for America, but both found their groove, No one has a better groove than Azzi.

 

[donalddoowop]

You all better believe what Milford says. He knows what he has seen of her. I believe him.

 

[oldude]

Appreciate the OP by JoePgh. When I read some grumbling about Azzi yesterday from the peanut gallery, I also thought about Lou’s initial struggles shooting the ball as a freshman.

For any freshman, the initial challenge is to get used to the size and speed of the college game. You have less time to pull the trigger and there are bigger, more athletic players guarding you. For anyone not named “Paige Bueckers” it can take some time to adjust.

 

[Dokey]

Yeah, Lou started slowly, and Anna went 0 for America, but both found their groove, No one has a better groove than Azzi.

Lou of course went on to leading team in scoring in several games that year and Azzi might as well but it might be harder for her to get the minutes Lou eventually got. I would throw Caroline into mix, again depending on minutes. Her defense might push her ahead of Azzi. But it is EARLY. We need both to rise to the occasion.

 

[Childhood]

Appreciate the OP by JoePgh. When I read some grumbling about Azzi yesterday from the peanut gallery, I also thought about Lou’s initial struggles shooting the ball as a freshman.

For any freshman, the initial challenge is to get used to the size and speed of the college game. You have less time to pull the trigger and there are bigger, more athletic players guarding you. For anyone not named “Paige Bueckers” it can take some time to adjust.

Sometimes it's difficult. Hailey Van Lith struggled with her shooting in her freshman year. And she is still having rough shooting so far.

 

[DEpup]

Thank you for the perspective...

 

[daggittydog]

Thanks for the KLS shooting reminder. My confidence in Azzi has returned.

 

[BBallF]

Appreciate the OP by JoePgh. When I read some grumbling about Azzi yesterday from the peanut gallery, I also thought about Lou’s initial struggles shooting the ball as a freshman.

For any freshman, the initial challenge is to get used to the size and speed of the college game. You have less time to pull the trigger and there are bigger, more athletic players guarding you. For anyone not named “Paige Bueckers” it can take some time to adjust.

It's all about her feet. When she gets them set it's in. Part of it is the different game but part is also freshman jitters. I think if she shoots her pull up J more it will help her. That is an automatic feet set off the dribble. Defense has been an issue too so I think a few things have to come together because that can be occupying her thought. She needs to just play and not think and trust the process and the work. Maybe today.

 

[eebmg]

I have no doubt Azzi's 3pt shooting will come alive but I am a little bit surprised she has not hunted mid range shots or that these plays are not called for her. When KLS was in a shooting funk, a quick curl at the foul line did the trick.

 

[BBallF]

I have no doubt Azzi's 3pt shooting will come alive but I am a little bit surprised she has not hunted mid range shots or that these plays are not called for her. When KLS was in a shooting funk, a quick curl at the foul line did the trick.

Exactly. If the 3s aren't falling, shoot the pull up, if the pull up isn't working, drive and get to the line. WE know it's coming. Only a matter of when. Feeling today.

 

[hoopsfan22]

So are we saying Azzi will be more like a KML or KLS than a Diana or Stewie? Perhaps an unreasonable expectation, but with all of the hype and accolades I was expecting Azzi to be more in the category of the latter than the former.

 

[DEpup]

She is definitely in the KML, KLS, and maybe could get to Maya eventually mold but she is not DT or Stewie and never will be. Just doesn't have that personality to be former or size to be latter.

I predict her legacy will be a KML and Maya mash up. Not quite either one but in the middle between them.

 

[Charliebball]

when a player has developed a near perfect shooting stroke it's unlikely that player will go into prolonged shooting slumps........in Azzi's case she simply needs to be a bit more selfish and just shoot the ball when she is open and forget about that extra pass unless the other player is wide open.......like PB she's been trained to buy into the team concept even if it means giving up an open shot........there will come a day, hopefully soon, when her shooting prowess will be on full display....

 

[EricLA]

For reference, starting her career at UCONN, the great KML came off the bench and had the following stats:

• 7 points, 0-7 from 3 vs. Holy Cross
• 25 points, 5-6 from 3 vs. Pacific
• 25 points, 3-8 from 3 vs. Stanford (we won)
• 11 points, 2-6 from 3 vs. FDU
• 2 points, 0-5 from 3 vs. Buffalo
• 23 points, 6-8 from 3 vs. Dayton

She came off the bench in a season that had starters of Doty, Hayes, Hartly, Faris, and Dolson. For the year she averaged 15 PPG and shot over 38% from deep, her lowest % of her UCONN career. She ended her 4 years shooting almost 45% from deep. IMHO KML is a better comparison than KLS. Lou was more a wing/forward while at UCONN, mainly because she was taller. And because after Stewie graduated KLS's freshman year, there was no elite center on the team. KML and Azzi are really only guards.

My point is it took KML exactly 1 game to light it up, but in her first 6 games, she only shot really well in half of them. I'm hopeful Azzi shakes off the nerves and finds her groove soon. The longer it takes, the more it will mess with her head and her confidence.

 

[BobbyJ]

So are we saying Azzi will be more like a KML or KLS than a Diana or Stewie? Perhaps an unreasonable expectation, but with all of the hype and accolades I was expecting Azzi to be more in the category of the latter than the former.

That's why it might be a good idea to ignore hype and accolades and just trust what you see. I've had her in the first category all along.

 

[pvdoggy]

That's why it might be a good idea to ignore hype and accolades and just trust what you see. I've had her in the first category all along.

If Azzi can become 3-times All-American in 4 years like Lou, I would be happy, and I am sure so would she.

 

[HopJim]

when a player has developed a near perfect shooting stroke it's unlikely that player will go into prolonged shooting slumps........in Azzi's case she simply needs to be a bit more selfish and just shoot the ball when she is open and forget about that extra pass unless the other player is wide open.......like PB she's been trained to buy into the team concept even if it means giving up an open shot........there will come a day, hopefully soon, when her shooting prowess will be on full display....

Totally agree. When Azzi gets the ball and shoots, her form and results are excellent. You can tell she is thinking too much since she is pushing many of her shots causing a relatively flat arch. Similar to KLS her frosh year, predict a big game soon.

 

[JoePgh]

Totally agree. When Azzi gets the ball and shoots, her form and results are excellent. You can tell she is thinking too much since she is pushing many of her shots causing a relatively flat arch. Similar to KLS her frosh year, predict a big game soon.

It looks as if you have won the Platinum Crystal Ball Award with this prediction.

As I hoped and somewhat expected, the original post did not age well.