Attrition Among Top 5 Classes

[Nuyoika]

So Baylor WBB signed 5 players in 2015, a recruiting class ranked #4 by espnW. Only 1 remains at Baylor heading into 2017-18: Kalani Brown. Wasn't Maryland's class #1 that year and the 2 best players from that class for them in Staiti #16 & Slocum #7 have transferred out.

I wonder if anyone is tracking how these large classes do over the long haul. I wonder what UConn's 2017 class will look like over the next 3 years as well as Tennessee's #1 class.

 

[MilfordHusky]

So Baylor WBB signed 5 players in 2015, a recruiting class ranked #4 by espnW. Only 1 remains at Baylor heading into 2017-18: Kalani Brown. Wasn't Maryland's class #1 that year and the 2 best players from that class for them in Staiti #16 & Slocum #7 have transferred out.

I wonder if anyone is tracking how these large classes do over the long haul. I wonder what UConn's 2017 class will look like over the next 3 years as well as Tennessee's #1 class.

I'm not sure where Kaila Charles was rated, but she started for the Terps this season. She may be better than Staiti.

We had a nice class of 5 back in 2010, but only 2 of them stayed. However, both Bria and Stef were 2x All-Americans.

 

[CBus13]

So Baylor WBB signed 5 players in 2015, a recruiting class ranked #4 by espnW. Only 1 remains at Baylor heading into 2017-18: Kalani Brown. Wasn't Maryland's class #1 that year and the 2 best players from that class for them in Staiti #16 & Slocum #7 have transferred out.

I wonder if anyone is tracking how these large classes do over the long haul. I wonder what UConn's 2017 class will look like over the next 3 years as well as Tennessee's #1 class.

When it comes to Staiti's ranking it depends on which recruiting service you consult. For Blue star Basketball she was #23 and for Prospectsnation she was #82 and then #16 on ESPN (Kaila Charles was #12 on Prospectsnation, and #33 on BlueStar Basketball and #22 on ESPN)

 

[UcMiami]

In the modern era - say the last 8-10 years - I think it is really hard to keep a five member class together for four years, and even a four member class can be tough because it is rare to get the range of complementary skills among that many players in a class, and combined across the classes before and after. Most coaches would love to have consistent 3 member classes of talented players - that gives a revolving 12 player roster, but with injuries, transfers, and the ups and downs of recruiting too many classes end up as 2, 1 or even 0 to start or at the end of four years and so coaches take the talent when they can get it even if it means expanding to five players in a single class.

You get little hints from coaches including the Uconn staff that some players are offered to fill out a class, or are likely to struggle after other likely better players commit 'on top' of them. It is not that they aren't players that can succeed and that the coaches want to work with, just that the chances of their thriving are lower than other players in their class or on the team already/likely to come after them.

[I mentioned 'modern era' because from the beginning through the early 2000s, there were fewer choices for players and transfers were more arduous, so players sucked it up and made the best of their situation - with no real pro options, there wasn't the 'future' pressure either - it was more of a way to pay for college and play a sport than a career objective and training process.]

 

[easttexastrash]

Baylor is doomed.

 

[easttexastrash]

Baylor's 2015 class was over-rated. Dry and S-Beavers were never going to get playing time at Baylor and Gulley was injured in high school and was never going to contribute. So Baylor may have lost those 3 but it had basically no impact on the program. The only loss that really has an impact is Mompremier.

 

[UcMiami]

Baylor's 2015 class was over-rated. Dry and S-Beavers were never going to get playing time at Baylor and Gulley was injured in high school and was never going to contribute. So Baylor may have lost those 3 but it had basically no impact on the program. The only loss that really has an impact is Mompremier.

Agree - ESPN rating system is always overweight on volume and underweight on talent. That said, Brown as a single player class might well end up rating top 5 based on college performance. With only five players on the court and in tight games some players getting close to 40 minutes, quality can easily out perform quantity in basketball.

 

[JordyG]

Baylor's 2015 class was over-rated. Dry and S-Beavers were never going to get playing time at Baylor and Gulley was injured in high school and was never going to contribute. So Baylor may have lost those 3 but it had basically no impact on the program. The only loss that really has an impact is Mompremier.

And maybe not that much.

 

[easttexastrash]

And maybe not that much.

I agree. Bringing in Cox the next season kind of make the loss of Mompremier a lot less impactful. Mompremier was going to give Cox and Brown a blow whenever they need it but it tight games you need the quality on the court, like UcMiami said, and that was not going to be Mompremier. I think her departure will give Cox the playing time that she needs to feel like she owns that position and that it will help her develop her game more quickly.

 

[Blaneylover]

In the modern era - say the last 8-10 years - I think it is really hard to keep a five member class together for four years, and even a four member class can be tough because it is rare to get the range of complementary skills among that many players in a class, and combined across the classes before and after. Most coaches would love to have consistent 3 member classes of talented players - that gives a revolving 12 player roster, but with injuries, transfers, and the ups and downs of recruiting too many classes end up as 2, 1 or even 0 to start or at the end of four years and so coaches take the talent when they can get it even if it means expanding to five players in a single class.

You get little hints from coaches including the UConn staff that some players are offered to fill out a class, or are likely to struggle after other likely better players commit 'on top' of them. It is not that they aren't players that can succeed and that the coaches want to work with, just that the chances of their thriving are lower than other players in their class or on the team already/likely to come after them.

[I mentioned 'modern era' because from the beginning through the early 2000s, there were fewer choices for players and transfers were more arduous, so players sucked it up and made the best of their situation - with no real pro options, there wasn't the 'future' pressure either - it was more of a way to pay for college and play a sport than a career objective and training process.]

Agreed. As players come in that may take their minutes, these players decide if they want to be around the best program in WCBB and the best coaching staff in WCBB...or if they want to go somewhere where they will play. Natalie Butler chose the latter yesterday.

 

[easttexastrash]

Agreed. As players come in that may take their minutes, these players decide if they want to be around the best program in WCBB and the best coaching staff in WCBB...or if they want to go somewhere where they will play. Natalie Butler chose the latter yesterday.

Crazy to think that players choose to go somewhere that they can play.

 

[bags27]

Crazy to think that players choose to go somewhere that they can play.

This is a point that we don't always remember to give full weight. That's what players do....play. Anyone whom a top school has recruited is used to being a multi-year starter. It's like someone going to a university to be pre-med and finding out that maybe they won't be allowed to major in biology or take organic chemistry, but maybe they will, but they won't know that for a couple of years. It's been the focal point of a kid's life all these years, and suddenly they are being told to think of themselves differently. Instead, they begin to dream that they can do in college what they did in high school...and so they transfer.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Crazy to think that players choose to go somewhere that they can play.

But these high-profile transfers point to a phenomenon of major programs: they're stockpiling players. They don't care that much of a top player leaves, because they either have more on the bench, or more on the way. The concentration of players in a few programs lets the coaches off the hook for over-recruiting, and also encourages players who find themselves at the end of the bench to seek greener pastures. If more players chose more non-traditional programs, then it's likely that fewer would change scenery.

 

[DefenseBB]

But these high-profile transfers point to a phenomenon of major programs: they're stockpiling players. They don't care that much of a top player leaves, because they either have more on the bench, or more on the way. The concentration of players in a few programs lets the coaches off the hook for over-recruiting, and also encourages players who find themselves at the end of the bench to seek greener pastures. If more players chose more non-traditional programs, then it's likely that fewer would change scenery.

It's the thrill of the chase, to have Kim, Jeff, Brenda or Geno want you is flattering, enamorimg and ultimately too tempting to pass up. You get there and realize "hey, there's 9 of us for 3 reserve slots to sub in for the starting 5, uh oh so now what do I do?" Most try to compete and stay, some say, "I tried but don't think it will work" and so go elsewhere. And you know what? It's ok to do that. We, on these forums get too carried away at times on what we think is good for the young ladies. Most will never have a pro career. How many of the top 25 from HoopGurlz 2013 class actually got drafted and how many will still be on a roster in 3 years? Worse yet, the money is minimal for most. Getting a meaningful major with a degree will be more beneficial. Therefore playing as much as possible the last few years in college is urgent. Again, that is great, just get the degree...

 

[RogerThat]

I've never liked the ranking system but I will say this, ESPN rankings don't have any "Elite High School" tournaments tied to them that they run so, perhaps a little less biased on who attends your tourney or camp (Prospects Nation). Plus, there are so many tourneys now going on that it is virtually impossible to get a real good look at at prospect on a regular basis.

I think your best way of evaluating talent is at the USA basketball trials as you have a collection of 100+ prospects together for a few days and as cuts are made, you tend to narrow down to the top 30 and watch them battle it out.

I have always believed that they only ranking that matters is how a recruit is ranked on the coaches board

 

[Blaneylover]

Crazy to think that players choose to go somewhere that they can play.

I applaud her decision. It had to be a difficult one. She could have stayed and, at worst, gone to a 4th Final Four. She chose to go somewhere to perhaps be a focal point of the offense.

 

[RogerThat]

But these high-profile transfers point to a phenomenon of major programs: they're stockpiling players. They don't care that much of a top player leaves, because they either have more on the bench, or more on the way. The concentration of players in a few programs lets the coaches off the hook for over-recruiting, and also encourages players who find themselves at the end of the bench to seek greener pastures. If more players chose more non-traditional programs, then it's likely that fewer would change scenery.

Some programs play these stockpiled players (Baylor) while others do not (Louisville). I really believe that the pressure for a top player to commit early does not give them the time to do their diligence on a program/programs. I believe that the players that take longer to evaluate their choices, make better choices. They may lose one or two offers as programs are in a rush to fill their rosters but, they tend to make a better decision for them.

Reality is only one program wins a national championship each year so as a recruit you have to ask yourself, "even if I did not play basketball, could I see myself going to school here?".

 

[BroadwayVa]

This is a point that we don't always remember to give full weight. That's what players do....play. Anyone whom a top school has recruited is used to being a multi-year starter. It's like someone going to a university to be pre-med and finding out that maybe they won't be allowed to major in biology or take organic chemistry, but maybe they will, but they won't know that for a couple of years. It's been the focal point of a kid's life all these years, and suddenly they are being told to think of themselves differently. Instead, they begin to dream that they can do in college what they did in high school...and so they transfer.

\\

Makes sense for WBB players , not so much for Pre-Med. Kids tend to think more down the road than when I played--we played for the next game--the options are wider but exposure is more important--and some time (that's some times) it's an ego trip for parents, schools, (HS), friends to go to a Uconn/ND/Duke/ USC and not a Washington or ODU, Towson, --for coaching it is a bit of a gamble --will we need this kid, if this kid comes, but we have this kid right now--even with much less talent--. As a fan I feel rotten for kids I see on the bench that I'm pretty certain won't get as much (of the tiny bit they got this year) next year--who wants to stay and play. 2010 team had 2 on that team that came in with few chances of getting much time, 1 was a bit of a project, one wanted to be in Kentucky, and one loved where she was---(On Pre-Med, they would know before they accepted what courses would be available--unlike PT with a top team)
As always I respect and enjoy your opinions.

 

[Carnac]

Some programs play these stockpiled players (Baylor) while others do not (Louisville). I really believe that the pressure for a top player to commit early does not give them the time to do their diligence on a program/programs. I believe that the players that take longer to evaluate their choices, make better choices. They may lose one or two offers as programs are in a rush to fill their rosters but, they tend to make a better decision for them.

Reality is only one program wins a national championship each year so as a recruit you have to ask yourself, "even if I did not play basketball, could I see myself going to school here?".

A case in point is Sabrina Ionescu at Oregon. I read an article (as I recall) that said she waited until the very last minute (less than a week before school started) before committing to the Ducks. Head coach Kelly Graves didn't know for sure which way she was leaning until she showed up on campus, because she was such a highly coveted recruit by so many other high profile programs.
I would be surprised if Ionescu leaves the Ducks before she exhausts her 4 years of eligibility. She did her due diligence and waited for all the dust to settle before committing.

Ionescu was one of the Ducks best players this past season. Even though she was a first year player, she was a team leader, having the rest of the team's ear, and went about her business in a mature no nonsense fashion.

Ionescu finished 3 tenths of a point behind Ruthie Hebard as the team's leading scorer with 14.6. She also finished 2nd (behind Hebard) in rebounds with 219 to Hebard's 314. She's one to watch next year.

 

[BobbyJ]

A case in point is Sabrina Ionescu at Oregon. I read an article (as I recall) that said she waited until the very last minute (less than a week before school started) before committing to the Ducks. Head coach Kelly Graves didn't know for sure which way she was leaning until she showed up on campus, because she was such a highly coveted recruit by so many other high profile programs.
I would be surprised if Ionescu leaves the Ducks before she exhausts her 4 years of eligibility. She did her due diligence and waited for all the dust to settle before committing.

Ionescu was one of the Ducks best players this past season. Even though she was a first year player, she was a team leader, having the rest of the team's ear, and went about her business in a mature no nonsense fashion.

Ionescu finished 3 tenths of a point behind Ruthie Hebard as the team's leading scorer with 14.6. She also finished 2nd (behind Hebard) in rebounds with 219 to Hebard's 314. She's one to watch next year.

I kind of agree with you. It would be the best way for most kids to handle their recruiting. However, from some first hand experiences I've found that in most cases only the very top level recruits are allowed that luxury of waiting for the dust to settle and having a spot reserved for them. IMO, most of the kids, especially the mid level and "fill out the roster" types get written off by the coaches if they wait much past the early signing periods.

 

[meyers7]

We had a nice class of 5 back in 2010, but only 2 of them stayed. However, both Bria and Stef were 2x All-Americans.

Had a nice class in 1998 too. All 5 graduated from UCONN, although Walters was never really able to play due to injuries.

DT's class of 2000 had 5 players who stayed all 4 (5) years.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

A case in point is Sabrina Ionescu at Oregon. I read an article (as I recall) that said she waited until the very last minute (less than a week before school started) before committing to the Ducks. Head coach Kelly Graves didn't know for sure which way she was leaning until she showed up on campus, because she was such a highly coveted recruit by so many other high profile programs.
I would be surprised if Ionescu leaves the Ducks before she exhausts her 4 years of eligibility. She did her due diligence and waited for all the dust to settle before committing.

There were a number of WBB fans, including, a few on this message board who criticized her for taking such a long time to make her decision. These few questions what information about why the process was being dragged out.

After a year in which we saw so many high-profile players transfer, perhaps her decision looks really great. She took the time to gather information and determine the best for her, bith athletically and academically.

 

[SVCBeercats]

So Baylor WBB signed 5 players in 2015, a recruiting class ranked #4 by espnW. Only 1 remains at Baylor heading into 2017-18: Kalani Brown. Wasn't Maryland's class #1 that year and the 2 best players from that class for them in Staiti #16 & Slocum #7 have transferred out.
I wonder if anyone is tracking how these large classes do over the long haul. I wonder what UConn's 2017 class will look like over the next 3 years as well as Tennessee's #1 class.

Baylor's WBB 2015 recruiting class was rated as the 4th best by ESPN. Ranking them as the #4 class is just wrong. No top 10s. Two top 20s. Other three are 66, 87, and 100. Baylor's 2015 class:
11 Kalani Brown, P STARTER
20 Beatrice Mompremier, P University of Miami Hurricanes
66 Alexandria Gulley, PG at Baylor on a medical scholarship - no basketball
87 Justis Szczepanski-Beavers, P dismissed from the team for violating team rules
100 Alyssa Dry, G left of her own volition - where? ?

 

[bags27]

A case in point is Sabrina Ionescu at Oregon. I read an article (as I recall) that said she waited until the very last minute (less than a week before school started) before committing to the Ducks. Head coach Kelly Graves didn't know for sure which way she was leaning until she showed up on campus, because she was such a highly coveted recruit by so many other high profile programs.
I would be surprised if Ionescu leaves the Ducks before she exhausts her 4 years of eligibility. She did her due diligence and waited for all the dust to settle before committing.

Ionescu was one of the Ducks best players this past season. Even though she was a first year player, she was a team leader, having the rest of the team's ear, and went about her business in a mature no nonsense fashion.

Ionescu finished 3 tenths of a point behind Ruthie Hebard as the team's leading scorer with 14.6. She also finished 2nd (behind Hebard) in rebounds with 219 to Hebard's 314. She's one to watch next year.

Saw her in Bridgeport, and there were times when she could do anything she wanted to on the court. Incredible skills and swagger for a freshman. Will only get a whooooole lot better: write her in as player of the year in 2019-20 . Of course, if she stays that long might well depend on her twin brother Eddy, whom she followed to Oregon, but then Eddy himself--I think--didn't enroll, but went to a JC to play basketball.

 

[CocoHusky]

Say what??

Baylor's WBB 2015 recruiting class was rated as the 4th best by ESPN. Ranking them as the #4 class is just wrong.

 

[JustinesGuy]

Baylor's WBB 2015 recruiting class was rated as the 4th best by ESPN. Ranking them as the #4 class is just wrong. No top 10s. Two top 20s. Other three are 66, 87, and 100. Baylor's 2015 class:
11 Kalani Brown, P STARTER
20 Beatrice Mompremier, P University of Miami Hurricanes
66 Alexandria Gulley, PG at Baylor on a medical scholarship - no basketball
87 Justis Szczepanski-Beavers, P dismissed from the team for violating team rules
100 Alyssa Dry, G left of her own volition - where? ?

Alyssa Dry was by favorite all time non uconn women's basketball player.

 

[triaddukefan]

In the modern era - say the last 8-10 years - I think it is really hard to keep a five member class together for four years, and even a four member class can be tough because it is rare to get the range of complementary skills among that many players in a class, and combined across the classes before and after. Most coaches would love to have consistent 3 member classes of talented players - that gives a revolving 12 player roster, but with injuries, transfers, and the ups and downs of recruiting too many classes end up as 2, 1 or even 0 to start or at the end of four years and so coaches take the talent when they can get it even if it means expanding to five players in a single class. .]

Duke had the #1 rated class in 2010...... a 5 player class...... and they all stayed 4 years. 2 PG's, a SG, a SF, and a PF.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

It's not just in basketball; when I'm hiring at work I'm shocked at how frequently people change jobs these days. I've only worked for 2 companies in the last 30 years. I can't fathom changing jobs or colleges every year or two.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Baylor's WBB 2015 recruiting class was rated as the 4th best by ESPN. Ranking them as the #4 class is just wrong. No top 10s. Two top 20s. Other three are 66, 87, and 100. Baylor's 2015 class:
11 Kalani Brown, P STARTER
20 Beatrice Mompremier, P University of Miami Hurricanes
66 Alexandria Gulley, PG at Baylor on a medical scholarship - no basketball
87 Justis Szczepanski-Beavers, P dismissed from the team for violating team rules
100 Alyssa Dry, G left of her own volition - where? ?

The practice of simply adding up the number of ranked recruits signed to rank recruiting classes is silly. It counts a national player of the year as no more important than a #40 recruit.

What these ranking services should do is weight the recruits. For example, give 20 points to a POY, 10 points to a 2nd through 5th recruit. 5 points for #6 through #15. And 1 point for recruits ranked #16 through 30. Something like that.

Doing so would highlight the recruiting classes with the most talented individual player, and also give weight to players who are considered vastly more talented than the rest. Would also give some weight to better, but undifferentiated players in the second tier. If that were the metric, Connecticut would be ranked far higher in most years than they usually are.

 

[oldude]

I think there is an inherent problem that starts when a team exceeds 3 recruits in any one class, and certainly when a class gets to 5 or 6. There is simply not enough PT to get everyone quality minutes.

From a coach's standpoint, I understand the dilemma. You wait for answers from top recruits. They haven't said yes, but they haven't said no either, so you cover your backside and sign lesser players and then maybe the top recruits say they're coming.

Even UConn struggles with this dilemma. Four years ago, it was down to the wire with A'ja Wilson who ended up in SC. Two years ago it went down to the wire with Lauren Cox who ended up in Waco.

This past year it went down to the wire with Megan Walker, who's coming to Storrs along with 3 earlier signees who can all basically play the same position.