Let's face it: the roster construction this season is just not good enough. Mahaney was a miss. Reed IMO is solid but he fouls too much. McNeeley was a huge hit. Karaban is worse than last year. Now, Diarra is injured. Ball is much improved. Stewart is better than last year too. We just aren't as deep.
The only players I feel comfortable with on the court when healthy: Ball, McNeeley, Stewart, Karaban, Reed, and Diarra. That's only six guys. We simply aren't deep enough.
That being said, I would not be stunned if we go on a Kamba-like run with McNeeley and win the whole thing. IMO, a lot of teams are overrated: chief among them is Duke who has played about 7 NCAA tournament caliber teams all year and is only 4-3 against them. I don't trust the SEC or Big 10 to win the whole thing either. The top teams in the Big 12 (Iowa State and Houston) are repeat chokers. Gonzaga is down.