Assessing the possible 64 Teams

[DefenseBB]

Because I am an analyst by trade, metrics drive my being to at least make me think what they are telling me. As we are near the end of the regular season and with the last reveal being put forth, I have done some collecting, assessing and hypothesizing on the 64 teams. I am looking for your feedback as I know I will have missed something.
The parameters: 64 Teams (duh!), 32 Conferences (Auto-bids), 32 At-Large bids. I looked at the standings of the P5 with their AP rank and Massey Rank. I then looked at the non-P5 Massey Ranked teams and here's what I found:

• The non-power 5 2nd place and below teams are a rather putrid group. USF, Marquette, Villanova, Buffalo are pretty much it for potential at large bids. Buff is the lowest Massey at #44.
• The ACC has 7 at-large teams with Virginia the lowest at 39, Miami next at 31. Virginia will continue to drop and their end of season swoon may preclude them (16-14 record). 7 total (Va is out)
• The SEC has 6 at-large teams with LSU the lowest at 28 in Massey. 7 total (all make it)
• The Pac12 has 6 at-large with Utah on the outside at #58 but USC Trojans in at #37. 7 total
• The Big12 has 4 at-large with TCU on the outside at #49 but WV in at #36. 5 total
• The Big10 is the wild card. They have 5 teams with Massey ratings below 33 and 4 more 41 or greater. To me, Maryland, tOSU, Minn, Iowa and Mich pass the smell test (20+wins, Massey below 33). Nebraska is next best at #41, 19-8 and should get in as what Amy Williams has done there is remarkable in two years. After that Rutgers #46 is fading fast and will be out. 6 total
• That basically leaves 1 more at-large bid for non-P5 with possibly Creighton at #47 to move up past Virginia.

Sad that AAC will only get 2 bids in year 5 of the conference. UCF is 74, Houston 79 and Cincinatti 113.
Thoughts?

 

[BostonCanuck]

Sad that AAC will only get 2 bids in year 5 of the conference. UCF is 74, Houston 79 and Cincinatti 113.
Thoughts?

It is sad. UCF is a really good team, and one of the reasons I wanted to see them beat South Florida last week is because I think it would have kept their NCAA tournament bid alive. But they fell just short, and the ACC will be stuck at two yet again this year.

 

[EricLA]

Team like UCF need to take care of business in the early months. They have 9 losses including Elon, Mercer, Samford, and Pacific. No team who loses to cupcakes like that deserves a bid. Maybe next year - but if their record was 21-5 instead of 17-9, we'd be having a different conversation.

For the record I can't speak to how good those other 4 teams are. Maybe the losses are "respectable", but still, you simply can't afford to lose to that many teams not named UCONN or USF and expect a bid.

 

[DefenseBB]

Team like UCF need to take care of business in the early months. They have 9 losses including Elon, Mercer, Samford, and Pacific. No team who loses to cupcakes like that deserves a bid. Maybe next year - but if their record was 21-5 instead of 17-9, we'd be having a different conversation.

For the record I can't speak to how good those other 4 teams are. Maybe the losses are "respectable", but still, you simply can't afford to lose to that many teams not named UCONN or USF and expect a bid.

I hear ya, but in this case, Mercer and Elon are actually pretty good, no excuse for Pacific and Samford (unless of course the 't' was removed and 'm' replaced 'n'). It is only year 2 for her so the trend is up. That said, still stinks for us this year.