Arms Race - The New Formula

[Surly1]

First off, congrats to SC & Dawn Staley. Her team is at the forefront of this "nuclear" arms race. Coming off an undefeated season and NC, what do they do? They bring in 3 top freshmen and return every player except one. Most teams when they have to go to their bench due to foul trouble or to give a player a breather, see a dramatic drop in the level of play. Not SC. When they go to the bench, it might increase their level of play. Imagine being able to bring off Malaysia Fulwiley & Tessa Johnson as your back-up tandem guards and Ashlyn Watkins as a substitute big.

The old days of recruiting a top player and surrounding them with key role players is over. Had Iowa had 1 or 2 more HS All-Americans, their last 2 years might have produced a different outcome. The new paradigm is to build an arsenal of players. This is done with recruiting, dipping into the portal, or both to fill in any missing pieces. LSU, UCLA, USC, Texas, even SC & UConn have benefitted from bringing in players.

Taking a look at the upcoming season, a number of teams are stocked with talent. USC is bringing in 6 recruits to surround JuJu Watkins. If this past season is any indicator, it might not take long for them to make an impact. Texas will hopefully have Rori Harmon back to full strength and have 2 top recruits to join Madison Booker. UCLA & ND should get key players back from injury, and both squads will be in the mix at the end of the season.

Finally, if the Sword of Damocles that has hung over UConn the past 3 seasons is removed, Geno will have the ability to play mad scientist. UConn's incoming class is second to none. Add 5 players returning from injury, 4 first-year players having gained valuable playing experience, and a 100%, fully recovered and stronger Paige to take sole ownership of team leader, UConn will have the depth and talent to play against anyone.

Yes, there are other super powers in the universe. However, the landscape hasn't looked this bright in a long time. Regardless of who the starters will be, UConn will be able to bring firepower off the bench that should be comparable to what SC can do. I say should because it remains to be seen and SC has already proven it. Next year, UConn will have 3 former #1 recruits on its roster, and ideally, we will get to see them playing together quite often.

 

[oldude]

I don’t know that building an “ arsenal of players” is necessarily a new thing. Certainly TN, UConn & ND have been doing it for years. We need only look back at UConn’s last national championship in 2016. That team boasted 6 x 1st team AA’s, 3 National DPOY’s and 7 future WNBA players.

 

[nwhoopfan]

The problem with this idea is, everywhere other than South Carolina, if you try to stockpile talent like this, you're gonna lose a bunch of them in the portal when they don't get enough playing time. I'd say with NLI, portal, and no restrictions with transferring anymore, it just won't work. Except for Dawn. It's a new era.

 

[ABCDFE]

The problem with this idea is, everywhere other than South Carolina, if you try to stockpile talent like this, you're gonna lose a bunch of them in the portal when they don't get enough playing time. I'd say with NLI, portal, and no restrictions with transferring anymore, it just won't work. Except for Dawn. It's a new era.

Luck and health is also a very real thing. UConn bad luck with health last few years. SC no significant health issues that would force them to play a different style like UConn has last 3 years.

That is why I think stacking talent from 6-12 is very important. We used to have the best 1-7 but if you have 2,3,4,5 etc of injuries, Geno and co. Can’t rely on glue guys or good teammates he needs dawgs. I think you need to load up as as much as possible . Obviously it is hard if we’re talking about building culture but I believe they can build a 10 player team that are excellent players each and every year.

 

[Surly1]

I don’t know that building an “ arsenal of players” is necessarily a new thing. Certainly TN, UConn & ND have been doing it for years. We need only look back at UConn’s last national championship in 2016. That team boasted 6 x 1st team AA’s, 3 National DPOY’s and 7 future WNBA players.

I understand your point, but I wasn't clear. I can't recall teams having so many players from top to bottom that could be starters for their teams. It reminds me of the old John Wooden UCLA days.

The teams you referenced had a galaxy of star players that maybe went 6-7 deep. For discussion purposes only, let's look at a couple of examples on paper.

Madisen McDaniel is one of the top high school point guards in the country. Coming into SC, she slots into the 6th spot in the guard rotation. Joyce Edwards, the # 2 recruit in the country will have to earn her minutes . Gabriela Jaquez came off the bench her first 2 years at UCLA. She could start for any team in the country. Look at what happened to Stanford last year. They had so many quality players, there was a mini exodus because good/great players want to play.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't recall UConn having the quality of depth that is expected for next season. Let's say that Paige and a healthy Azzi are the starting tandem in a scheme where Geno uses two bigs and a 3, like Sarah Strong or a healthy Ducharme. That leaves KK and Ashlynn coming off the bench after starting this season. Then, factor in top recruits Allie Ziebell and Morgan Cheli. On paper, they are the third guard tandem. For most programs, they would be instant starters.

Conceivably, if everyone remained healthy, there are 13 players that could be in UConn's rotation. There's little likelihood that will occur, but while it's a more delicate problem, it is preferable to having too little, like the two past years.

However, in this day and age, will playing for a potential NC carry more weight than playing time?

 

[CTBballfan243]

The schools/programs who can pay their players the most $$$$ will be the programs who will win moving forward. Unfortunately for UConn, the teams in power conferences are going to have a huge leg up on NIL $$$.

 

[hoophuskee]

Luck and health is also a very real thing. UConn bad luck with health last few years. SC no significant health issues that would force them to play a different style like UConn has last 3 years.

That is why I think stacking talent from 6-12 is very important. We used to have the best 1-7 but if you have 2,3,4,5 etc of injuries, Geno and co. Can’t rely on glue guys or good teammates he needs dawgs. I think you need to load up as as much as possible . Obviously it is hard if we’re talking about building culture but I believe they can build a 10 player team that are excellent players each and every year.

UCONN has built an amazing culture the past 30 years. It doesnt have to be 10. The culture still lives on even after this year. What a great season. The heart the UCONN played with - it highlights what the culture is at UCONN.

 

[boontonbomber]

The problem with this idea is, everywhere other than South Carolina, if you try to stockpile talent like this, you're gonna lose a bunch of them in the portal when they don't get enough playing time. I'd say with NLI, portal, and no restrictions with transferring anymore, it just won't work. Except for Dawn. It's a new era.

Why is Dawn the only one who has figured out how to play 9 players? If you play them,they will come. Dawn has somehow convinced players that they will play if they come. If you insist on playing no more than 7 players ....... Iowa was exhausted last night, SC was just warming up.

 

[boontonbomber]

So, suppose all the injured( even Caroline) should be healthy next year. Would that be 13 players? Who do you imagine will be coming in at mop-up time for the final 2 minutes? Oh, ok,for one reason or another, there probably won't be 13 players. Still, I think Geno is somehow going to have to leave his comfort zone.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Why is Dawn the only one who has figured out how to play 9 players? If you play them,they will come. Dawn has somehow convinced players that they will play if they come. If you insist on playing no more than 7 players ....... Iowa was exhausted last night, SC was just warming up.

Well, I think it's pretty obvious most teams don't have the kind of talent 1-9 as South Carolina does. Staley was able to play the bench however minutes she chose to and pretty much there was no drop off from the starters. Again, I just don't think having 4 starting quality players on your bench is a formula that is going to be easy to replicate.

 

[uconnfan68]

Well, I think it's pretty obvious most teams don't have the kind of talent 1-9 as South Carolina does. Staley was able to play the bench however minutes she chose to and pretty much there was no drop off from the starters. Again, I just don't think having 4 starting quality players on your bench is a formula that is going to be easy to replicate.

We’ve done that before.

 

[boontonbomber]

Well, I think it's pretty obvious most teams don't have the kind of talent 1-9 as South Carolina does. Staley was able to play the bench however minutes she chose to and pretty much there was no drop off from the starters. Again, I just don't think having 4 starting quality players on your bench is a formula that is going to be easy to replicate.

Perhaps these 9 "starters" went to SC with some confidence that they would all get minutes. Last season they had 10 players with double-digit minutes.

 

[boontonbomber]

I don’t know that building an “ arsenal of players” is necessarily a new thing. Certainly TN, UConn & ND have been doing it for years. We need only look back at UConn’s last national championship in 2016. That team boasted 6 x 1st team AA’s, 3 National DPOY’s and 7 future WNBA players.

That 2016 team had 9 players with at least 12 minutes, so Geno figured it out that season, and went, as we know, 38-0.

 

[Zonepress]

The schools/programs who can pay their players the most $$$$ will be the programs who will win moving forward. Unfortunately for UConn, the teams in power conferences are going to have a huge leg up on NIL $$$.

UConn will be fine as long as Geno is the coach
After that it will be very challenging to keep up with the football schools

 

[nwhoopfan]

Everyone can disagree with me. It just kinda seems like, of course everybody wanted to copy what UConn had been doing for about 25 years. Nobody was able to do it. Replicating a dominant program just is almost impossible. I don't think Staley copied Geno's formula, I think she's doing it her own way. It's been a very gradual process, with plenty of success along the way. She's set up to absolutely rule wcbb for the foreseeable future in my view. "Let's just do what she did" just seems like it's not really gonna happen for anybody else.

 

[VAUConnFan]

Until this season, UConn's 2001 team was the most talented team, top to bottom. Save for Notre Dame playing out of their minds in the second half of the semifinal, UConn would have won five straight national championships.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

If UConn with their now 13 players on their roster get Kaitlyn Chen and a talented big Center from the Transfer Portal they will have a roster equal to if not surpass teams from 2013 to 2016 and 2002!
SoCar UCLA, Texas, etc IMHO will not be able to stick with that CT team!
Injuries and sickness is the only thing that would put a damper on that roster!
And God knows UConn has paid it's dues in those areas several times over!

 

[VAUConnFan]

If UConn with their now 13 players on their roster get Kaitlyn Chen and a talented big Center from the Transfer Portal they will have a roster equal to if not surpass teams from 2013 to 2016 and 2002!
SoCar UCLA, Texas, etc IMHO will not be able to stick with that CT team!
Injuries and sickness is the only thing that would put a damper on that roster!
And God knows UConn has paid it's dues in those areas several times over!

2013-2016? Those teams were loaded, though your projected possibility might be deeper if that's the point you are making.
2002? Two Wade Trophy winners, 5 first round WNBA draft choices, 2 second rounders. Again, if it is about depth, then maybe.

 

[bballnut90]

It's always been an arms race, recruiting is the #1 reason why Connecticut has stayed a juggernaut for so long, and it was the same for Tennessee during Summitt's years.

I think what Dawn is doing different than anyone else in basketball right now is prioritizing height, length and athleticism above developed basketball skill. She recruits some of the biggest, strongest and most athletic posts who block shots and dominate the glass. Her guards are tall and long too, or they are lightning quick and will hound you defensively. Other programs have a few standout athletes or players who are better shooters/passers/etc, but no one has the collection of athletes that South Carolina does and it's why they look so much more physical in almost every matchup they have. The pattern continues next year when they'll have another athletic 6-5 post in Tac, an athletic forward in Edwards and a quick guard in McDaniel.

 

[hoophuskee]

It's always been an arms race, recruiting is the #1 reason why Connecticut has stayed a juggernaut for so long, and it was the same for Tennessee during Summitt's years.

I think what Dawn is doing different than anyone else in basketball right now is prioritizing height, length and athleticism above developed basketball skill. She recruits some of the biggest, strongest and most athletic posts who block shots and dominate the glass. Her guards are tall and long too, or they are lightning quick and will hound you defensively. Other programs have a few standout athletes or players who are better shooters/passers/etc, but no one has the collection of athletes that South Carolina does and it's why they look so much more physical in almost every matchup they have. The pattern continues next year when they'll have another athletic 6-5 post in Tac, an athletic forward in Edwards and a quick guard in McDaniel.

I can’t tell you how much I love this post. And what' the killer is - is that Dawn's past teams is a contrast to UCONN's past 3 teams in which unfortunately none of the past 3 UCONN teams were fully healthy when they met 2nd half of the year for each of these years. As fans we were all robbed of the potential contrasting matchup. What a shame. It's been 3 years of this. Which means that even next year UCONN is behind South Carolina on paper.

I admire how Dawn has put her team together. And I believe much of the BY likes her style a lot more than how Geno does as to how she manages and has the bigs and plays with pace. IMO her teams remind me of the prime Men's Georgetown Hoyas (and in a way to Pat Summit's great teams.). .The Georgetown teams were some of my favorite men's non-UCONN teams.

I prefer though the superstars which UCONN tends to get (though some years ofc the supposed superstar is not that.). So, I'm continually bumming because I'm not sure what ceiling UCONN could be next year. As an example in regard to The Arms Race - this upcoming year Ice and Patterson should be upperclassmen. Patterson was a freak athlete what we saw in High School -- she was nothing like that as a freshman because of her knee. IMO it wasn't even close. And our 6'5 Jana would be getting a soph jump this upcoming year and as a result Sarah Strong would have had a lot more help than what she may have. UCONN should have had a strong frontcourt (even if not better than some) heading into this year. Right now it's questionable as to how good it can be/ will be - based on youth, inexperience and injuries which makes things very uncertain cs potential high quality matchups vs South Carolina or other elite teams.

 

[Zarathustra]

In the same vein, there is an article in the NEW YORK TIMES "THE ATHLETIC" sports
section today: " UCONN, PURDUE show blueprint for building NCAA Championship
Teams". A mixture of recruiting H.S. talent, Transfers/Portal, and players accepting
lesser playing time and scoring fewer point for the greater long term payoff for
the team. The article says that you have to have players that "buy into" the
process idea. GENO WOULD CALL IT " know your role" and be " unselfish".
It is a good read for those interested. Note the comments by the PURDUE H.C,
and the comments from BRIAN HAMILTON, the Athletic writer "about" the
Purdue's H.C. comments. INTERESTING.. NOTE Dawn S.. knows this already!
So, Back to the UCONN WOMEN's last two Scholarship slots = to fill or
not to fill? There was also the comment by Brian Hamilton about
small guards having a hard time seeing "over" or getting "around" bigger
guards.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

2013-2016? Those teams were loaded, though your projected possibility might be deeper if that's the point you are making.
2002? Two Wade Trophy winners, 5 first round WNBA draft choices, 2 second rounders. Again, if it is about depth, then maybe.

VAUConnFan- - -I was comparing the total talent on 2002 and the teams from 2013 to 2016 and NEXT years roster, which will be loaded with talent!
IMHO 15 deep next year! With 2 transfer portal players added on!

 

[CONN78SEJ]

If UConn with their now 13 players on their roster get Kaitlyn Chen and a talented big Center from the Transfer Portal they will have a roster equal to if not surpass teams from 2013 to 2016 and 2002!
SoCar UCLA, Texas, etc IMHO will not be able to stick with that CT team!
Injuries and sickness is the only thing that would put a damper on that roster!
And God knows UConn has paid its dues in those areas several times over!

Getting Allie and Morgan, and especially Sarah, Geno might be able to attract more of the big time recruits from 2025. Is UConn still in it for ZaKiyah Johnson, Arianna Alexander, and Brynn McGaughy, and Lara Somfai? Have Fisher and Malou-Mamel, already committed?

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Getting Allie and Morgan, and especially Sarah, Geno might be able to attract more of the big time recruits from 2025. Is UConn still in it for ZaKiyah Johnson, Arianna Alexander, and Brynn McGaughy, and Lara Somfai? Have Fisher and Malou-Mamel, already committed?

CONN78SEJ- - -Yes I agree a lot of HS girls will look to a program like UConn's that over-achieved to the FF with 6 girls out-for-the-season!
I know UConn is in on McGaughthy ans Somfai!
Yes Fisher and Malou-Mamel committed to UConn!

 

[Crossover]

In the same vein, there is an article in the NEW YORK TIMES "THE ATHLETIC" sports
section today: " UCONN, PURDUE show blueprint for building NCAA Championship
Teams". A mixture of recruiting H.S. talent, Transfers/Portal, and players accepting
lesser playing time and scoring fewer point for the greater long term payoff for
the team. The article says that you have to have players that "buy into" the
process idea. GENO WOULD CALL IT " know your role" and be " unselfish".
It is a good read for those interested. Note the comments by the PURDUE H.C,
and the comments from BRIAN HAMILTON, the Athletic writer "about" the
Purdue's H.C. comments. INTERESTING.. NOTE Dawn S.. knows this already!
So, Back to the UCONN WOMEN's last two Scholarship slots = to fill or
not to fill? There was also the comment by Brian Hamilton about
small guards having a hard time seeing "over" or getting "around" bigger
guards.

You left out the most important element of the blueprint according to the Athletic article, namely developing talent. While this primarily applies to those who are recruited out of high school or from abroad, transfers can be developed as well, with Tristan Newton (UConn men) and Kamilla Cardoso being prime examples. The blueprint also prioritizes fit and coachability over player ranking.

 

[Cuango]

It's always been an arms race, recruiting is the #1 reason why Connecticut has stayed a juggernaut for so long, and it was the same for Tennessee during Summitt's years.

I think what Dawn is doing different than anyone else in basketball right now is prioritizing height, length and athleticism above developed basketball skill. She recruits some of the biggest, strongest and most athletic posts who block shots and dominate the glass. Her guards are tall and long too, or they are lightning quick and will hound you defensively. Other programs have a few standout athletes or players who are better shooters/passers/etc, but no one has the collection of athletes that South Carolina does and it's why they look so much more physical in almost every matchup they have. The pattern continues next year when they'll have another athletic 6-5 post in Tac, an athletic forward in Edwards and a quick guard in McDaniel.

Dawn has essentially taken Pat Summit’s strategy of recruiting bigger, stronger and tougher athletes and using them to bludgeon their opponents with offensive rebounding and lay up lines, has added more and more skill along with that and has built another, better Tennessee in the SEC. This last season, after the devastating defeat to Iowa, she added the remaining, missing ingredient which was high percentage shooters. The results speak for themselves.

Meanwhile, the team, once again, that epitomizes the counter method to that strategy, UConn, continues to go the way of motion offense, ball movement, high percentage shot selection etc. They however, have been essentially rendered Hors de Combat these past three to four years, thus robbing everyone of seeing the matchup of these opposing styles. Styles that seem to be growing gradually closer rather than apart. Dawn has seen the necessity of better offense, while Geno has (aside from the injuries) seen the need for bigger, stronger players who, hopefully can still play the high skill, motion offense but who can also compete on the boards and under the basket. He has also, specifically this past season, put a renewed emphasis on lock down defense.

Who and what philosophy will come out ahead? Well, first the Huskies have to get fully healthy. If that happens then we will finally get to see a true competition between the two current colossi of Women’s Basketball! Meanwhile however, there are a number of programs that are gearing up to crash the party and render this two way competition moot. Texas, Notre Dame, LSU, UCLA, and USC have all instituted a crash build and have stocked their rosters with enough talent where they may be able to push their way through the closed doors and muscle themselves right onto the dance floor!

Of these, the two I find most likely to threaten Dawn, the current champion, and Geno, the #1 ranked challenger, are Texas and Notre Dame, both with great rosters and equally great coaches. LSU seems to have imploded a bit with all the controversy and stress and more particularly the loss of their best player to the draft. UCLA suffers from a lightweight coach in my opinion, though they do have talent and an elite big. USC is a bit of a puzzle as I am unsure of Gottlieb‘s chops as well and am not sure where the JuJu Watkins story is headed. Does Gottlieb have the gravitas and will to really coach her transcendent star or will this team continue to be JuJu and the rest?

Of course, there are usually one or three upstarts every year ala NC State this season, but I really doubt we’ll see a champion from outside the seven enumerated here. Clearly, SC is the favorite but UConn (if healthy) should be nipping at their heels followed by Texas, ND, LSU, UCLA, and USC. Duke is probably my wildcard with potential!

 

[boontonbomber]

If UConn with their now 13 players on their roster get Kaitlyn Chen and a talented big Center from the Transfer Portal they will have a roster equal to if not surpass teams from 2013 to 2016 and 2002!
SoCar UCLA, Texas, etc IMHO will not be able to stick with that CT team!
Injuries and sickness is the only thing that would put a damper on that roster!
And God knows UConn has paid it's dues in those areas several times over!

Sorry coach, Chen is a very good player, but we have KK. She played well in the tourney, really began to assert herself. She and Shade were given opportunity to play, and both really developed. I want to watch KK continue to get better, and Chen would only get in the way. I think KK can become on of the best point guards we've seen at UConn. I really don't like the portal; want to see the recruited players have every chance to develop.

 

[DEpup]

Sorry coach, Chen is a very good player, but we have KK. She played well in the tourney, really began to assert herself. She and Shade were given opportunity to play, and both really developed. I want to watch KK continue to get better, and Chen would only get in the way. I think KK can become on of the best point guards we've seen at UConn. I really don't like the portal; want to see the recruited players have every chance to develop.

And what do we do if KK gets an injury?

 

[oldude]

And what do we do if KK gets an injury?

There’s another pretty decent kid on UConn’s roster who’s played some pg in her day, before she got moved to power forward. You may have heard of her, kid named Bueckers…..

 

[boontonbomber]

And what do we do if KK gets an injury?

Paige, Azzi , Ziebell , take your pick.