Are we underestimating the Big East? | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Are we underestimating the Big East?

the BE this year is bad ! UCONN is a contender for a natty but that’s it . Johnie’s will get better ; they have talent but no familiarity. seton hall plays hard and a nice story , maybe a playin team . same upside potential for nova . everyone else not a good team but can be a problem at home. still it wouldn’t be surprising to see uconn19-1 and johnnie’s 18-2 with a slip up somewhere
 
Jaydumo20 said:
Great point. I think there is a difference between hard games and games that earn quad 1 value because of the tourney assessment system.

Florida, Kansas and BYU will most likely be quad 1 games at the end of the season but I will argue that for the growth of the team, St. John's 'away' may be a tougher game for us. A lot of these games will challenge us just as much as the non cons.

The big east has clearly toughened us up for March the past few years. Just that Crieghton in Omaha doesnt have the same ring as Kansas in Lawrence doesn't mean it doesn't sharpen the blade just as much if not more. If BE play weakened us how did we steamroll P4s in our two runs?
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Let's do this - assume we should be heavy favorites and win all our home games. We just waxed what may have been the third best team last night.

So then it's 10 road games - where do we lose:

StJ - obvious one. Not a true road game, we've played there twice already. StJ may improve, but they also look like a paper tiger and have no PG. This will be a very important game to StJ. Very winnable, we'll be light favorites. Revenge game for Hurley, opportunity to reclaim Storrs South.

Creighton - historically a tough game for us, albeit we won last year. This will be the toughest environment we play in.

Marquette - their roster is just bad this year. If we put Ross on Ross and lock him up, I honestly don't know how score enough. I can't see us losing this one.

Seton Hall - the dreaded one. I think we match up well here and are due, but who knows. The past few years they've had some guys that could bully us, this year they're rangy and athletic.

Butler - we just saw them, could present as challenging on the road.

PC - decent roster, terrible coaching. I think Hurley runs circles here.

DePaul - no

Xavier - no

Gtown - in that sleepy arena, no

Nova - maybe they muster up a charge, Lewis has been playing well. I don't think their roster is all that good.

Some people calling for 4-5 losses, but where? We will easily be favored in all of these. Like last nights game, hold off the initial adrenaline rush and our system and depth should win most of these. We'd have to really be off in multiple games to lose multiples of these.

17-3 isn't a bad projection. Call it a loss to StJ, a loss at Creighton and a loss at SH.
 
RuffRuff said:
Let's do this - assume we should be heavy favorites and win all our home games. We just waxed what may have been the third best team last night.

So then it's 10 road games - where do we lose:

StJ - obvious one. Not a true road game, we've played there twice already. StJ may improve, but they also look like a paper tiger and have no PG. This will be a very important game to StJ. Very winnable, we'll be light favorites. Revenge game for Hurley, opportunity to reclaim Storrs South.

Creighton - historically a tough game for us, albeit we won last year. This will be the toughest environment we play in.

Marquette - their roster is just bad this year. If we put Ross on Ross and lock him up, I honestly don't know how score enough. I can't see us losing this one.

Seton Hall - the dreaded one. I think we match up well here and are due, but who knows. The past few years they've had some guys that could bully us, this year they're rangy and athletic.

Butler - we just saw them, could present as challenging on the road.

PC - decent roster, terrible coaching. I think Hurley runs circles here.

DePaul - no

Xavier - no

Gtown - in that sleepy arena, no

Nova - maybe they muster up a charge, Lewis has been playing well. I don't think their roster is all that good.

Some people calling for 4-5 losses, but where? We will easily be favored in all of these. Like last nights game, hold off the initial adrenaline rush and our system and depth should win most of these. We'd have to really be off in multiple games to lose multiples of these.

17-3 isn't a bad projection. Call it a loss to StJ, a loss at Creighton and a loss at SH.
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The obvious ones are @STJ and @SH. There will then be at least one WTF game. So 3-4 losses seems likely and probably “good” for this team. Need to have a couple of bad tastes, imo, to carry you through.
 
boog204 said:
The obvious ones are @STJ and @SH. There will then be at least one WTF game. So 3-4 losses seems likely and probably “good” for this team. Need to have a couple of bad tastes, imo, to carry you through.
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Yeah, do agree you want a couple healthy losses, but not so much as not to be eligible for a 1 seed!

The way I see it, we have just as good a chance of being 19-1 as we do being 16-4. The Uconn roster and depth is just that much better than the rest of these teams. And we have a lot of hungry mouths out there still proving themselves.
 
RuffRuff said:
Yeah, do agree you want a couple healthy losses, but not so much as not to be eligible for a 1 seed!

The way I see it, we have just as good a chance of being 19-1 as we do being 16-4. The Uconn roster and depth is just that much better than the rest of these teams. And we have a lot of hungry mouths out there still proving themselves.
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Agreed, we’re in a position to be practically gift wrapped a 1 seed, we need to take care of business.
 
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Huskyforlife said:
Agreed, we’re in a position to be practically gift wrapped a 1 seed, we need to take care of business.
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The way it could shape is:

Arizona - West
UM - Midwest
Duke - South
Uconn - East

Two seeds would likely be:

Purdue
ISU
SEC winner
Zags
 
It's not just that conference games are "tough". MCBB has a ton of parity. We beat New Haven (first year in Div 1 hoops) by 24 - about the same MOV as Seton Hall. Penn State beat them by over 40. We struggled against BCU in an exhibition game. I know that was early in the season, but it's indicative of this team.

We continue to foul way too much. And it's not just fouls, it's shooting fouls. I'm not sure why, but most of the teams we faced seem to have athletic guys with clever moves to the basket that get our guys to foul them. Apparently we have no one like that. Additionally, as Hurley says, the team lacks killer instinct. I suppose you could say that is true based on final MOV and the fact that we often get up by 30, then teams come back. Is that because they find an extra gear, or because we get complacent and lack killer instinct?

Who's going to end up at the bottom of the BE? Currently it's PC, Depaul, Marquette and Creighton. I could see a 35-40 point win against a few of them, but the rest of the BE games will mostly be in the 15-25 point range IMHO. Then I bet we lose a few - which will obviously be an unpleasant surprise...

1765988137934.png
 
I don't know that anyone is underestimating the toughness we'll face night in and night out. That said, St John's might be the only team in the conference other than us with any realistic FF expectations. It's almost January 1st and we're ranked 5th, St John's is 7-3 and 22nd and Nova, Seton Hall are receiving votes.

Can any team beat any team on any night? Maybe, but in March, if anyone other than us or St John's makes any noise it's a pretty big upset.
 
I am going 20-0, if any year this looks like the best shot. You know Coach Hurley wants to break SJU’s record of 18-2.
 
EricLA said:
It's not just that conference games are "tough". MCBB has a ton of parity. We beat New Haven (first year in Div 1 hoops) by 24 - about the same MOV as Seton Hall. Penn State beat them by over 40. We struggled against BCU in an exhibition game. I know that was early in the season, but it's indicative of this team.

We continue to foul way too much. And it's not just fouls, it's shooting fouls. I'm not sure why, but most of the teams we faced seem to have athletic guys with clever moves to the basket that get our guys to foul them. Apparently we have no one like that. Additionally, as Hurley says, the team lacks killer instinct. I suppose you could say that is true based on final MOV and the fact that we often get up by 30, then teams come back. Is that because they find an extra gear, or because we get complacent and lack killer instinct?

Who's going to end up at the bottom of the BE? Currently it's PC, Depaul, Marquette and Creighton. I could see a 35-40 point win against a few of them, but the rest of the BE games will mostly be in the 15-25 point range IMHO. Then I bet we lose a few - which will obviously be an unpleasant surprise...

View attachment 114705
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It’s interesting you talked all about parity and UConns shortfalls, but then determined no game will be closer than 15 points…
 
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RuffRuff said:
The way it could shape is:

Arizona - West
UM - Midwest
Duke - South
Uconn - East

Two seeds would likely be:

Purdue
ISU
SEC winner
Zags
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Except the committee will give the East to Duke since south is in Houston. And that is too far for them
 
FightOnCT said:
That line is way too large, we struggle to pull away from opponents and Butler is solid, better than Texas honestly

Even in 2024, conference play wasn’t smooth sailing with close games against Nova on the road and St. John’s and Providence at home.
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It turned out the line was actually too small, not "way too large."
 
bendm said:
Rothstein says UConn can only finish w/ 2-3 BE losses and needs to win the BET in order to get the 1 seed in the east. i agree.
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Are you trying to see if you can make every thread on the basketball board about your hatred of the Big East?
 
nelsonmuntz said:
Are you trying to see if you can make every thread on the basketball board about your hatred of the Big East?
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Nelson strikes again! Good one Nelson! Not at all like it’s a thread about the Big East being weak or not.
 
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Platt81 said:
It’s interesting you talked all about parity and UConns shortfalls, but then determined no game will be closer than 15 points…
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But didja actually read what I wrote? "Then I bet we lose a few - which will obviously be an unpleasant surprise...". I also said other games should "mostly be in the 15-25 point win range".
 
bendm said:
Rothstein says UConn can only finish w/ 2-3 BE losses and needs to win the BET in order to get the 1 seed in the east. i agree.
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I think this is accurate. However, Im starting to care less about the #1 seed in terms of 1st/2nd rd games. We shouldn't be scared of a 15 and usually, the 8/9 games are filled with P4 teams or teams like us last year. We talk about being screwed with landing in the Florida region but they didnt get a gift by facing us game 2, clearly.
 
First night we get into foul trouble and miss our free throws and trip in a conference game the sky will be falling..

We are not “ bulletproof “
 
Jaydumo20 said:
I think this is accurate. However, Im starting to care less about the #1 seed in terms of 1st/2nd rd games. We shouldn't be scared of a 15 and usually, the 8/9 games are filled with P4 teams or teams like us last year. We talk about being screwed with landing in the Florida region but they didnt get a gift by facing us game 2, clearly.
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Here is the thing - there is a fairly definitive top 5-6 teams this year based on what we've seen so far. Getting a 1 generally means we have a good chance of avoiding them until the F4 if we get a 1 seed. I would rather avoid playing a Michigan in the Elite 8 if at all possible.
 
RuffRuff said:
Here is the thing - there is a fairly definitive top 5-6 teams this year based on what we've seen so far. Getting a 1 generally means we have a good chance of avoiding them until the F4 if we get a 1 seed. I would rather avoid playing a Michigan in the Elite 8 if at all possible.
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Why, is Michigan good this year?
 
RuffRuff said:
Here is the thing - there is a fairly definitive top 5-6 teams this year based on what we've seen so far. Getting a 1 generally means we have a good chance of avoiding them until the F4 if we get a 1 seed. I would rather avoid playing a Michigan in the Elite 8 if at all possible.
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Well if Michigan is as good as you say they are then we're going to beat them at some point to win a championship, so I don't particularly care if it's in the Elite 8 or championship game
 
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navery12 said:
Well if Michigan is as good as you say they are then we're going to beat them at some point to win a championship, so I don't particularly care if it's in the Elite 8 or championship game
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I'd like to see us play the best team in the NC on the big stage, and to get to a F4. The longer they're out there, the better chance someone else knocks them off.
 
EricLA said:
It's not just that conference games are "tough". MCBB has a ton of parity. We beat New Haven (first year in Div 1 hoops) by 24 - about the same MOV as Seton Hall. Penn State beat them by over 40. We struggled against BCU in an exhibition game. I know that was early in the season, but it's indicative of this team.

We continue to foul way too much. And it's not just fouls, it's shooting fouls. I'm not sure why, but most of the teams we faced seem to have athletic guys with clever moves to the basket that get our guys to foul them. Apparently we have no one like that. Additionally, as Hurley says, the team lacks killer instinct. I suppose you could say that is true based on final MOV and the fact that we often get up by 30, then teams come back. Is that because they find an extra gear, or because we get complacent and lack killer instinct?

Who's going to end up at the bottom of the BE? Currently it's PC, Depaul, Marquette and Creighton. I could see a 35-40 point win against a few of them, but the rest of the BE games will mostly be in the 15-25 point range IMHO. Then I bet we lose a few - which will obviously be an unpleasant surprise...

View attachment 114705
Expand ...
When you're up by 30 and let a team come back to "only" lose by 15, that's not a lack of a killer instinct. The "kill" already happened when the game was put out of reach. That's unfortunately relevant for "performance" computer rankings, and I acknowledge those are used in seeding, but I'm not ready to criticize a team for focusing on winning only and not winning margins. It's why if I was on the Committee I would only want to see resume rankings.
 
businesslawyer said:
When you're up by 30 and let a team come back to "only" lose by 15, that's not a lack of a killer instinct. The "kill" already happened when the game was put out of reach. That's unfortunately relevant for "performance" computer rankings, and I acknowledge those are used in seeding, but I'm not ready to criticize a team for focusing on winning only and not winning margins. It's why if I was on the Committee I would only want to see resume rankings.
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We were never up 30
 
Tyler2Rings said:
We were never up 30
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It was a general point. But weren't we up 25 with about 12 minutes left? At that point "the kill" had been made. Did we keep playing to maximize winning margin? Heck no. Over the last four years there have been tons of games where we don't play to maximize final margin, so I would assume Hurley doesn't think it's important. But my point remains -- I don't view that as lack of a killer instinct. It's fine if you do.
 
Jaydumo20 said:
I think this is accurate. However, Im starting to care less about the #1 seed in terms of 1st/2nd rd games. We shouldn't be scared of a 15 and usually, the 8/9 games are filled with P4 teams or teams like us last year. We talk about being screwed with landing in the Florida region but they didnt get a gift by facing us game 2, clearly.
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I have no way to prove it, but I can assure you Florida was rooting for Oklahoma against UConn in the first round.
 
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