Are we sure?

[Hans Sprungfeld]

So a nba 3 is a good look... guys what are you talking about? If they were going to foul they would have fouled on the inbounds. Fine you let the good look happen, then after Carlton gets the rebound how about a timeout then? Instead of letting 1.7 tick off? We pay Hurley 3M a year he has to do a better job in game.

Maybe he'll get better.
Maybe you will.
Maybe I will.
Maybe not.
We'll see.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I get the sense most boneyarders don't watch many basketball games outside of UConn.

The funny thing is Gregg Marshall didn't call a timeout either. There are things to get on Hurley about, this isn't one of them.

Marshall has called 17 timeouts in 17 games. His team knows what to do already.

That said, Vital's shot was reasonable in that situation. Not ideal, but decent. Xavier hit a much deeper 3 to go into OT against us.

 

[QDOG5]

Every time we lose a close game the refs need to be fired. They were equally bad for both teams. As for the timeout/no timeout debate a strong case can be made on both sides. AG has been below average with the ball at the end of halves but made nice passes at the end of the game and OT. As for the 2019-20 UConn team in the immortal words of Denny Green "they are who we thought they were". They are a decent team that plays good D but doesn't shoot well and makes too many mental mistakes. I'm still hoping for a couple of big wins and a nice NIT run. How we lined up for the tip in OT is a prime example of bad BBIQ. Vital should have been on the other side of that guy. You get taught that in 4th grade.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Option A also lets the defense setup, by a very good defensive coach in Marshall. Don’t think it’s as clear cut as you make it sound.

Off the missed foul shot, calling a timeout to setup a play is classic collge coach overcoaching at its finest. We got a great look by the best shooter on the team and the ball was halfway down. He couldn't have drawn up a better shot.

In a scramble situation, it is always preferable to go while the defense is in retreat rather than allowing a timeout, and getting the opposing coach to setup on defense.

Don't overcoach.

 

[Apollo]

SJ I’m sure I watch more basketball than most posters here. Your smug arrogance and know it all attitude on an anonymous message board is as annoying as the other personalities on here. Here not calling a timeout either with 8 seconds or with 1.5 seconds after the rebound is dumb, sure if worked out it would be great, etc etc. But it didn’t and having a coaching philosophy that you’re just going to let your team wing it isn’t a winning strategy ever.

Pot, meet kettle

 

[Excalibur]

yes that’s an insane coaching philosophy, hope it works out. Coach has to manage the game. If Hurley’s philosophy, is let the kids play it out he is going to lose more games than he is going to win.

I would say a majority of coaches play that one out. K for one rarely calls timeout unless it's already an inbounds play. Yes, we could have called time out on the rebound, but coaches can't call it during a live ball.

 

[intlzncster]

The play and the shot were just fine. It just didn’t drop

It was a good look and he missed. A timeout wouldn't have given him (or anyone) a better look.

These points are irrelevant to the question at hand tho. You can't judge the quality of a decision based on the result. This is classic Outcome Bias.

With this particular team, I'd call a timeout every time. I get that you don't want the defense to set up, settle, or whatever. But our kids are low BBIQ players. There's a low amount of trust to them. And we've seen endless end of clock scenarios where Gilbert/Vital dribble out the clock and jack a bad shot.

Would have made more sense to call it in the grand scheme imo

 

[Excalibur]

The data says calling a timeout is the correct decision. . .

"Data"

Source? I'll wait.

 

[intlzncster]

Gilbert has been in that position so many times he should have better execution but he rarely does. The ball should be in Bouk's hand in end of clock situations.

That's why calling a timeout is usually the better decision for this club. If you have Kemba or Bazz running the show, then a TO might be a net negative. But not this group

 

[Excalibur]

And we've seen endless end of clock scenarios where Gilbert/Vital dribble out the clock and jack a bad shot.

Funny that many of those scenarios were out of timeouts . . .

And the irony of citing outcome bias is not lost on me

 

[intlzncster]

Funny that many of those scenarios were out of timeouts . . .

How many vs how many not? And some of those could be due to bad plays/calls by Hurley.

And the irony of citing outcome bias is not lost on me

What? The more data points you get, the less outcome bias you have. That's the entire point of data analysis and removal of bias lol Yeah, it's observational, but that's all you can do in this situation

What ya'll are saying is that putting the ball in Gilbert's hands on the fly is better than setting things up more in a more structurally rigid fashion. I'd disagree with that, having watched him play all year. It's a weird take tbh

 

[polycom]

"Data"

Source? I'll wait.

Late Game Timeouts Part II: What Happens When Trailing

By John Ezekowitz Two weeks ago, I published the first part of my late game timeout study from the 2009-2010 season. I found that when the score was tied, not calling a timeout was more effective t…

harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com

Hope I didn’t make you wait too long. Also the author presents at the Sloan Sports Conference so he is legit.

 

[ZenConn]

I don't think we call a timeout in that situation. We got a good look.

Problem is that we don't have good shooters. Calling a timeout in that situation will let the defense setup to deny CV the ball - our best and only 3 point shooter in that situation.

 

[Excalibur]

Late Game Timeouts Part II: What Happens When Trailing

By John Ezekowitz Two weeks ago, I published the first part of my late game timeout study from the 2009-2010 season. I found that when the score was tied, not calling a timeout was more effective t…

harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com

Hope I didn’t make you wait too long. Also the author presents at the Sloan Sports Conference so he is legit.

You might want to read the conclusion.

 

[polycom]

You might want to read the conclusion.

You might want to read the conclusion.

So what you’re saying is you thinking highly enough of the basketball IQ of our team. That in a situation where we should have gotten two shots and we got 1 you’re happy about it. Well we can agree to disagree then.

 

[intlzncster]

So what you’re saying is you thinking highly enough of the basketball IQ of our team. That in a situation where we should have gotten two shots and we got 1 you’re happy about it. Well we can agree to disagree then.

This was actually my biggest problem with it See if you can get two. If you're tied, you want to be sure to leave no time left so they don't have a shot to win it. If you're behind, you need to give yourself as many opportunities as possible. Can't worry about the other team at that point.

 

[Excalibur]

So what you’re saying is you thinking highly enough of the basketball IQ of our team. That in a situation where we should have gotten two shots and we got 1 you’re happy about it. Well we can agree to disagree then.

Move the ball a bit there? The offensive rebound is an entirely different scenario and much more complex.

 

[Excalibur]

This was actually my biggest problem with it See if you can get two. If you're tied, you want to be sure to leave no time left so they don't have a shot to win it. If you're behind, you need to give yourself as many opportunities as possible. Can't worry about the other team at that point.

We are just as likely to lose time after inbounding the ball as we are by just letting it run.

 

[polycom]

Move the ball a bit there? The offensive rebound is an entirely different scenario and much more complex.

More complex that maybe a coach could explain during a timeout...instead we got a rebound and did nothing with it.

 

[intlzncster]

We are just as likely to lose time after inbounding the ball as we are by just letting it run.

Based on what data?

Even after that rebound, a TO would have been useful. You gonna trust Carlton to get us a 3pt shot there?

 

[Excalibur]

Based on what data?

There's not enough of a sample size for us, but having watched us try to run plays in late game situations, we're pretty good at screwing them up regardless of the timeout.

 

[intlzncster]

There's not enough of a sample size for us, but having watched us try to run plays in late game situations, we're pretty good at screwing them up regardless of the timeout.

I think a lot of that has to do with Gilbert/Vital deciding to free lance. At least that's what Danny's reaction implies. Unless he's just drawing up horrible plays that are basically let gilbert go to the rim and get stuffed. idk obv as I wasn't in the huddle

 

[businesslawyer]

If we can’t trust our coach to draw up a play with 8 seconds, what’s the point? It’s okay to critique Hurley, he does some head scratching stuff. The shot we got was fine but we got an offensive rebound with a second left...

Boy, talk about not knowing when to quit due to the reaction.

We got a good shot off. If you call timeout there, you would have settled for getting that shot again, and that's even if they don't foul you and prevent you from having a chance. There is literally zero basis to be complaining about that decision except that Christian happened to miss.

 

[businesslawyer]

More complex that maybe a coach could explain during a timeout...instead we got a rebound and did nothing with it.

God, stop whining. Carlton got the rebound with maybe a second left. He looked to throw it outside the three point line, didn't see anyone immediately open and then froze wondering if laying it up did any good at that point.

We played hard. We didn't play well enough. There were numerous decisions that could have been made better, plays that could have been made better and calls that could have been made better that just didn't come together. But twice we needed 3s to tie to force OTs and twice we got off good looks. You're not going to make them all. Our problem is we played from behind for about 48 minutes, and if you do that eventually you don't make a play and game over.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Late Game Timeouts Part II: What Happens When Trailing

By John Ezekowitz Two weeks ago, I published the first part of my late game timeout study from the 2009-2010 season. I found that when the score was tied, not calling a timeout was more effective t…

harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com

Hope I didn’t make you wait too long. Also the author presents at the Sloan Sports Conference so he is legit.

Unfortunately, that article that you linked to--while interesting--is not relevant to the situation that's being discussed. It addressed TOs when down 2 pts (not 3pts). He teases at posting a final article being about TOs when down 3pts, but I couldnt find where he actually published the post addressing that (and since the article you cited was from 2010, I assume he forgot to ever publish it, LOL teaser)

Interestingly, scanning that article and googling led me to a KenPom blog post where he did a larger sample-size analysis of results when up by three and you foul (or don't foul). Which was the decision Marshall & WSU had to make at the end there. Essentially no significant (and no numerically meaningful) difference:

Yet another study about fouling when up 3 | The kenpom.com blog

W L OT Win% Cases
Foul 122 5 11 92.0 138
Defend 598 2 76 93.5 676

A big factor in the "defend" strategy working better than potentially expected is that 3pt % goes down significantly for most shooters in this situation vs. overall 3pt %. KP states:

"In the 814 cases studied, teams made 98 out of 608 three-point shots (16.1%) during the possession in question. Basically, assume a player is about half as effective as normal in hitting threes when his team is down three facing a limited clock. He might even be worse since it’s possible these shots were skewed towards more effective shooters. "