AP Preseason #3

[tzznandrew]

Like for example Jon Scheyer making the Elite 8 in his 2nd year as coach, with a roster significantly less talented than this year? That seems like a good example of a guy who can coach

I have my doubts he's a great coach, but...those guys are rare. He got that roster to an E8, and my guess is he breaks through with a Final Four at some point unless the recruiting falls off.

 

[aceboon]

Everyone was picking James Madison as the trendy upset pick over Duke in the 2nd round and Duke beat the breaks off of them. Yea they caught a break with the Shead injury vs Houston but Houston barely squeaked by Texas A&M so there's no guarantee they beat Duke with him. The jury is still out on Scheyer being the next great coach but some of y'all having the expectation that he should have already won a title after 2 seasons is a bit unrealistic, y'all wouldn't hold a first time UConn coach to those same standards.

 

[uh-no]

Like for example Jon Scheyer making the Elite 8 in his 2nd year as coach, with a roster significantly less talented than this year? That seems like a good example of a guy who can coach

they beat a significantly weakened houston team. They were painful to watch at times during the year. They were also not untalented.

I'm not going either way on scheyer. the jury is still out. Hubert davis went to the title game in year one and haven't sniffed similar success since.

 

[uh-no]

Everyone was picking James Madison as the trendy upset pick over Duke in the 2nd round and Duke beat the breaks off of them.

that was a dumb pick to anyone who had looked at JMU's schedule. Major overreaction to them beating wisconsin. There was a reason they were KP #60 entering the tournament....KP saw right through that charade

 

[aceboon]

that was a dumb pick to anyone who had looked at JMU's schedule. Major overreaction to them beating wisconsin. There was a reason they were KP #60 entering the tournament....KP saw right through that charade

What did Kenpom have to say about Yale vs Auburn?

 

[uh-no]

What did Kenpom have to say about Yale vs Auburn?

KP ain't know what's in the water up in connecticut

 

[The Yakk]

On paper Duke reminds me of the UK teams with the twins and Davis, deep and talented. I need to watch them in a real game to get a better idea of how they play.

Were they pressing the entire game? Wondering if Scheyer is taking after K in terms of pressing teams they think are worse to run up the score. Made it super hard to judge them until they ran into a quality team.

Davis never played with the twins, they came later. Although maybe I'm misreading your comment and you didn't mean to say they played together?

Anyway, those early Calipari teams were definitely deep and talented. But I think the Wall/Cousins team and the KAT/Booker team were way better rosters.

The second-best player on Davis's team was Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. A tough kid and a great teammate, but nowhere near the level of those other teams. Just goes to show how incredibly great Davis was, and still is.

 

[AntG168]

Everyone was picking James Madison as the trendy upset pick over Duke in the 2nd round and Duke beat the breaks off of them. Yea they caught a break with the Shead injury vs Houston but Houston barely squeaked by Texas A&M so there's no guarantee they beat Duke with him. The jury is still out on Scheyer being the next great coach but some of y'all having the expectation that he should have already won a title after 2 seasons is a bit unrealistic, y'all wouldn't hold a first time UConn coach to those same standards.

This just isn’t true. We’d definitely hold him to that standard if he came in with the advantages you get at Duke. He has enough talent to be getting NC expectations. It’s not like he had to rebuild a program lol. Ollie won in year 2 with significantly less high profile recruits

 

[CONN78SEJ]

I'm basing it off of actually looking at their roster

You should be looking at their head coach.

 

[alexd]

Duke beat Arizona St 103-47 in an exhibition tonight. Welcome home Bobby Hurley.

 

[HooperScooper]

Duke beat Arizona St 103-47 in an exhibition tonight. Welcome home Bobby Hurley.

Tonight? Look at page 5 of this thread.

 

[caw]

You realize that your take makes no sense, right? Hypothetically speaking, if we were returning Cam, Clingan, to go with Alex, Has and Samson, we would expect to be voted #1 because of the returning players. Well, that's exactly what Alabama and Kansas have. They are returning more valuable assets than we are. That said, who gives a s---. What matters is the last poll, not the first.

The flipside is, if you think UConn is good enough to be #3, why not put them at #1 since they won it all the past two years.

Davis never played with the twins, they came later. Although maybe I'm misreading your comment and you didn't mean to say they played together?

Anyway, those early Calipari teams were definitely deep and talented. But I think the Wall/Cousins team and the KAT/Booker team were way better rosters.

The second-best player on Davis's team was Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. A tough kid and a great teammate, but nowhere near the level of those other teams. Just goes to show how incredibly great Davis was, and still is.

Sorry, I just wrote that extremely poorly. I did not mean they were on the same team.

I was more referencing the run Cal had at UK from 2012-2015 in terms of talent and depth on those teams. 2012 (Davis - NC), 2013 (dud), 2014 (Twins - runner up), 2015 (Twins - final four).

That is how much talent this Duke team has and three of those four years Cal got that much talent to the final four. Now that 2013 also had a lot of talent but was a dud, so Duke could fall into that range.

In terms of on paper recruiting the 2011 - 2014 UK classes were definitely similar to 2024 Duke:

1 - Anthony Davis, 3 - MKG, 6 - Marquis Teague, 21 - Kyle Wiltijer

1 - Noel, 7 - Poythress, 18 - Goodwin, 47 - Cauley-Stein

2 - Randle, 3 - Harrison, 5 - Harrison, 8 - Johnson, 10 - Young, 14 - Lee, 58 - Willis

2 - Towns, 17 - Lyles, 20 - Ulis, 22 - Booker

Duke

1 - Flagg, 4 - Maluach, 13 - Evans, 18 - Knueppel, 21 - Ngongba, 40 - Harris

Talent alone should get them to a final four, unless Scheyer is a worse coach than Cal. Especially if you think Flagg is a Davis level recruit.

 

[tzznandrew]

What did Kenpom have to say about Yale vs Auburn?

Auburn was one of the most obvious frauds, where the difference between their metrics and their actual performance was pretty stunning.

 

[jibsey]

Until we see both our #5’s in game action I’m ok with us not being number 1 and am glad of it. The target is there but we still have that rebounding question.
We out assisted other teams by huge margins last 2 years, do we still have that? Huge talent but legit questions, that’s all.

 

[CL82]

Until we see both our #5’s in game action I’m ok with us not being number 1 and am glad of it.

It really doesn't matter, does it? I am delighted to have a bulletin board point. at this point, I'm about five championships past "they don't give us the respect we deserve". Really, who gives a crap one way or another? As Hurley would say, we have the hardware to back it up.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Auburn was one of the most obvious frauds, where the difference between their metrics and their actual performance was pretty stunning.

Eh, maybe in retrospect.

You know who else was a #4 seed with 8 losses, despite being top 10 in both KenPom offense and defense, with a "Luck" quotient ranked in the 300s? 2023 UConn.

If you could tell Auburn were frauds before the Tournament, I'd like to see your crystal ball.

 

[BlueMAB]

Eh, maybe in retrospect.

You know who else was a #4 seed with 8 losses, despite being top 10 in both KenPom offense and defense, with a "Luck" quotient ranked in the 300s? 2023 UConn.

If you could tell Auburn were frauds before the Tournament, I'd like to see your crystal ball.

Auburn also had one of their best players ejected 5 minutes into the game.

 

[gsmooth]

Eh, maybe in retrospect.

You know who else was a #4 seed with 8 losses, despite being top 10 in both KenPom offense and defense, with a "Luck" quotient ranked in the 300s? 2023 UConn.

If you could tell Auburn were frauds before the Tournament, I'd like to see your crystal ball.

I am not sure that is a good comparison. As tzzandrew has said in the past, and I agree with it, is Auburn really did not beat anyone all that good last year. People look at top metrics to determine if a team is really good, but I think it's 1) metrics and 2) good wins that we should be looking for in determining the potential for a team. Auburn had the former, but not the latter. They beat South Carolina twice by 40 and then by 31 and that "gamed" the metrics even though South Carolina was a good team, but far from anything substantial (they lost by a decent margin the first round of the NCAAT).

Also, I had a feeling Yale was going to give Auburn trouble because Auburn depends on turning other teams over a lot and making them play a chaotic style thus getting Auburn easy baskets. Yale was top 10 in the country in turning over the ball the least.

Edit:
They did beat a really good Alabama team at home by 18, but my point still stands after that. Also, they really did not do anything of note in the out of conference games.

 

[uh-no]

Auburn also had one of their best players ejected 5 minutes into the game.

this is the biggest thing that gets overlooked....

 

[tzznandrew]

Eh, maybe in retrospect.

You know who else was a #4 seed with 8 losses, despite being top 10 in both KenPom offense and defense, with a "Luck" quotient ranked in the 300s? 2023 UConn.

If you could tell Auburn were frauds before the Tournament, I'd like to see your crystal ball.

To be fair, a number of posters were nothing but annoyed with me in March because I called them a fraud before they lost—said they wouldn't get to us—and kept doing so after they lost. Last year's Auburn team beat almost no one, as opposed to UConn who pasted the #1 overall seed, among other good wins.

I was also not worried about Iowa State.

Too many receipts on Auburn in particular, though here's one. That said, I'm wrong all the time. So, I guess, forgive me for touting my Auburn take.

 

[HooperScooper]

as opposed to UConn who pasted the #1 overall seed, among other good wins.

UConn beat themselves?

 

[tzznandrew]

UConn beat themselves?

In the 2022-2023 season, Alabama was the #1 overall seed.

 

[HooperScooper]

In the 2022-2023 season, Alabama was the #1 overall seed.

Last year's Auburn team beat almost no one, as opposed to UConn who pasted the #1 overall seed, among other good wins.

"Last year" to me means 2023-2024 season. 2022-2023 was 2 years ago. Whatever.

 

[The Yakk]

The flipside is, if you think UConn is good enough to be #3, why not put them at #1 since they won it all the past two years.



Sorry, I just wrote that extremely poorly. I did not mean they were on the same team.

I was more referencing the run Cal had at UK from 2012-2015 in terms of talent and depth on those teams. 2012 (Davis - NC), 2013 (dud), 2014 (Twins - runner up), 2015 (Twins - final four).

That is how much talent this Duke team has and three of those four years Cal got that much talent to the final four. Now that 2013 also had a lot of talent but was a dud, so Duke could fall into that range.

In terms of on paper recruiting the 2011 - 2014 UK classes were definitely similar to 2024 Duke:

1 - Anthony Davis, 3 - MKG, 6 - Marquis Teague, 21 - Kyle Wiltijer

1 - Noel, 7 - Poythress, 18 - Goodwin, 47 - Cauley-Stein

2 - Randle, 3 - Harrison, 5 - Harrison, 8 - Johnson, 10 - Young, 14 - Lee, 58 - Willis

2 - Towns, 17 - Lyles, 20 - Ulis, 22 - Booker

Duke

1 - Flagg, 4 - Maluach, 13 - Evans, 18 - Knueppel, 21 - Ngongba, 40 - Harris

Talent alone should get them to a final four, unless Scheyer is a worse coach than Cal. Especially if you think Flagg is a Davis level recruit.

For Kentucky, you could go back even further to the Wall/Cousins roster.

 

[Huskyforlife]

I'd say 70% of a college coaches job is getting the right players. Hurley could run the best practices, have the best game plans, make the best in game adjustments, and still not get out of the first weekend without the talent upgrade we've achieved the last few years.

Point being Scheyer is already doing 70% of the job at an elite level imo. Hard to know how good he is at the other 30% until we see him in more high leverage games. But Duke fans like the progress so far for good reason.