AP poll 12/4

[Plebe]

Regarding my prior post in this thread, I was curious about something.

We originally were scheduled to play Baylor and they pulled out of the tourney and we play Dayton instead.

Let's say we had played Baylor and lost by less than 10 points and we were 14-2 (with losses to ND and Baylor), instead of being 15-1, would that have made a difference in our ranking when we play UConn?

It seems to me that even a relatively close loss (10 or less points) to a top 10 team might be looked upon as better by the voters than a win against a top 50 team.

Probably not. The voters don't typically move teams up for close losses, or move teams down for close wins

There is cause for concern in USF's strength of schedule because, as you point out, several teams are not looking as good as expected. (We can add Washington State to that list.) Since the opportunity to pick up quality wins in conference play will likely be nil, it's critical that at least a few of USF's nonconference wins turn out to be top 50 teams.

 

[USFMB]

Probably not. The voters don't typically move teams up for close losses, or move teams down for close wins. We can add Washington State to that list.

There is cause for concern in USF's strength of schedule because, as you point out, several teams are not looking as good as expected. Since the opportunity to pick up quality wins in conference play will likely be nil, it's critical that at least a few of USF's nonconference wins turn out to be top 50 teams.

True.

At the moment, SJU looks to be our best win.

Our best realistic chance to improve our RPI is by beating Ohio State at home.

Massey gives us a 35% chance of winning that game. Predicted Final Score: Ohio State 80 - USF 75.

So, perhaps that is doable.

 

[Plebe]

True.

At the moment, SJU looks to be our best win.

Our best realistic chance to improve our RPI is by beating Ohio State at home.

Massey gives us a 35% chance of winning that game Final score: Ohio State 80 - USF 75.

So, perhaps that is doable.

That's not exactly how the RPI works. RPI doesn't specifically reward "good" wins over other wins. But in terms of improving the resume for the selection committee, yes, the Ohio State game will be absolutely critical because it will likely be USF's only real shot at a top 25 win.

 

[USFMB]

That's not exactly how the RPI works. RPI doesn't specifically reward "good" wins over other wins. But in terms of improving the resume for the selection committee, yes, the Ohio State game will be absolutely critical because it will likely be USF's only real shot at a top 25 win.

I understand the distinction.

It not only would improve our RPI, but more importantly improve our chances of receiving a better seed in the NCAA by having a top 25 win under our belt.

We received a very bad seeding last year despite a good RPI, partly because we didn't have any such win.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Stanford is not dropping much in the polls considering how many games they've lost. Yeah they've challenged themselves w/ a tough schedule, but they haven't been competitive in 3 of their 4 losses to ranked teams. At 5-4 they should been out of the top 25 I think.

 

[Plebe]

Stanford is not dropping much in the polls considering how many games they've lost. Yeah they've challenged themselves w/ a tough schedule, but they haven't been competitive in 3 of their 4 losses to ranked teams. At 5-4 they should been out of the top 25 I think.

Last year at this time, Texas was 2-4 and was #17 in the AP poll.

The voters don't pay very much attention to margin of victory.

 

[j66kicker]

With Oklahoma, Dayton and Michigan State not looking as strong as expected, we are now predicted, by Massey, to be 15-1 when we face UConn at home on 1/6.

If that happens, we might be ranked around #10 by then.

Massey predicts we have a 4% chance to beat UConn, with a final score: USF 60 - UConn 81.

Massey Ratings - South Florida Bulls

In the meantime, much depends on whether our team can quickly get healthy and how our transfer Rader does when she first gets her chance to play, supposedly, @Oklahoma.

Right now, we have a very short bench and we can't expect our starting five to play so many minutes and continue to win all by themselves.

Hope you can do it. Would be great to have 2 AAC teams in the top 10!

 

[j66kicker]

Stanford is not dropping much in the polls considering how many games they've lost. Yeah they've challenged themselves w/ a tough schedule, but they haven't been competitive in 3 of their 4 losses to ranked teams. At 5-4 they should been out of the top 25 I think.

Yeah but, realistically, who below them is really any better?

 

[nwhoopfan]

Yeah but, realistically, who below them is really any better?

I haven't seen most of those teams play. Certainly Oregon St. at 5-2 w/ close losses to Notre Dame and Duke should be ranked ahead of Stanford. Neither of them has really beaten anybody of note, but Stanford has been blown out 3 times already this season. Green Bay seems to be impressing people.

 

[Plebe]

I haven't seen most of those teams play. Certainly Oregon St. at 5-2 w/ close losses to Notre Dame and Duke should be ranked ahead of Stanford. Neither of them has really beaten anybody of note, but Stanford has been blown out 3 times already this season. Green Bay seems to be impressing people.

Oregon State has looked better than Stanford, but then again they got Notre Dame at home. All of Stanford's marquee games have been on the road or on a neutral court. And to be honest, Duke is nowhere near as good as Baylor.

If we look at the bottom half of the RPI 25, there are few teams who have accomplished anything significant so far. What has Cal done to earn its spot? What about Michigan and Kentucky? All of these rankings are still highly speculative.

 

[willtalk]

It might seem like I have a running agenda against Stanford, but to me they just seem like a poster team for being rated by reputation. Granted in the past they have often done better than they were originally rated but past performances hasn't stopped the voters from rating Tenn high every year. I just can't understand how they can rate Stanford one better than Oregon St. No amount or rational other than reputation can account for this. Stanford has 4 losses all except one were blow outs and the other was by ten points. All of Oregon st. loses were close and the end spreads were achieved via fouls and free throws. The teams they lost to were Duke and ND. Granted Stanfords strength of schedule should count for something but not when they have lost two more games than Oregon st. Oregon st. had a close loss to ND who they played Uconn close. Ucon blew out Stanford. Oregon was in the game against Duke while Duke beat the team that blew out Stanford once and beat them by ten the second time. The only game not a factor comparatively is Baylor and they blew out Stanford. Stanford has done nothing to show they are a good team other than playing and losing to highly ranked teams. Getting blown out by a lot of highly ranked teams should not give them a pass for their four losses. They need to actually beat a decent team even once.

It seems like the voters are strongly influenced by Tara being the coach at Stanford just as Tenn is still riding the Summit train to inflated preseason rankings.

 

[cbraarj]

Ok I should have rephrased the question. If Texas wins are the the second best team in the country?

In the polls yes but if Tenn wins plus the rest of Top 10 wins. They might not make it in.

 

[USFMB]

Hope you can do it. Would be great to have 2 AAC teams in the top 10!

In the meantime, there are now 2 AAC teams in the top 10 RPI.

RealTimeRPI.com Women's College Basketball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Ratings - A leading sports ratings and resources community on the Internet

 

[wallman]

It might seem like I have a running agenda against Stanford, but to me they just seem like a poster team for being rated by reputation. Granted in the past they have often done better than they were originally rated but past performances hasn't stopped the voters from rating Tenn high every year. I just can't understand how they can rate Stanford one better than Oregon St. No amount or rational other than reputation can account for this. Stanford has 4 losses all except one were blow outs and the other was by ten points. All of Oregon st. loses were close and the end spreads were achieved via fouls and free throws. The teams they lost to were Duke and ND. Granted Stanfords strength of schedule should count for something but not when they have lost two more games than Oregon st. Oregon st. had a close loss to ND who they played Uconn close. Ucon blew out Stanford. Oregon was in the game against Duke while Duke beat the team that blew out Stanford once and beat them by ten the second time. The only game not a factor comparatively is Baylor and they blew out Stanford. Stanford has done nothing to show they are a good team other than playing and losing to highly ranked teams. Getting blown out by a lot of highly ranked teams should not give them a pass for their four losses. They need to actually beat a decent team even once.

It seems like the voters are strongly influenced by Tara being the coach at Stanford just as Tenn is still riding the Summit train to inflated preseason rankings.

TVD has underachieved with some teams, some of the years with the Ogwumikes did not live up to expectations but then she has seemed to do well like last year. I agree this year seems a stretch.

 

[ndmb]

Regarding my prior post in this thread, I was curious about something.

We originally were scheduled to play Baylor and they pulled out of the tourney and we play Dayton instead.

Let's say we had played Baylor and lost by less than 10 points and we were 14-2 (with losses to ND and Baylor), instead of being 15-1, would that have made a difference in our ranking when we play UConn?

It seems to me that even a relatively close loss (10 or less points) to a top 10 team might be looked upon as better by the voters than a win against a top 50 team.

You'd think, but that doesn't tend to be how the polls operate.

 

[UcMiami]

TVD has underachieved with some teams, some of the years with the Ogwumikes did not live up to expectations but then she has seemed to do well like last year. I agree this year seems a stretch.

Underachieved compared to who/what? She has been a pretty constant presence in the FF and is the conference champion almost every year. In general her teams outperformed their seeding.

Unlike the other high profile academic schools, Stanford does not alter their admission standards for athletes, so she also operates against a much reduced recruiting pool - probably only half or less of the top 25 in any year would qualify.

 

[wallman]

Underachieved compared to who/what? She has been a pretty constant presence in the FF and the conference champion almost every year. In general her teams outperformed their seeding.

Unlike the other high profile academic schools, Stanford does not alter their admission standards for athletes, so she also operates against a much reduced recruiting pool - probably only half or less of the top 25 in any year would qualify.

The year Texas A&M won was supposed to be their year. Then I think they lost early to Georgia if I recall correctly. Wasn't really comparing them to another team just what I thought they believed to be what they expected. But then again we would all like to have the final four appearance record.

 

[j66kicker]

In the meantime, there are now 2 AAC teams in the top 10 RPI.

RealTimeRPI.com Women's College Basketball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Ratings - A leading sports ratings and resources community on the Internet

Very cool - #10!

Of course if you brag too much you’ll get the standard, “It’s too early for the RPI to be meaning.” But great start - just keep it up!

 

[UcMiami]

The year Texas A&M won was supposed to be their year. Then I think they lost early to Georgia if I recall correctly. Wasn't really comparing them to another team just what I thought they believed to be what they expected. But then again we would all like to have the final four appearance record.

I just think we have strange criteria for teams. With Uconn and before that Uconn and TN dominating the NCs (16 of the last 22 titles) there isn't a whole lot of glory left to go around. Final four appearances is probably the best measure of long term school success. Since 1995:
Stanford with ten over those 22 years is getting its share.
ND has 7, and they both have strings of five years at the FF (until Uconn's current streak that was a record.)
LSU is next with five all in a row.
Duke with four.
Baylor actually only has 3 FF but twice they won the NC. Georgia (between 1995 and 1999), Maryland, and Oklahoma also have three with Maryland being the only other with an NC.

Uconn has 17 appearances
TN has 11 (none since 2008)

 

[USFMB]

Very cool - #10!

Of course if you brag too much you’ll get the standard, “It’s too early for the RPI to be meaning.” But great start - just keep it up!

Funny, you should mention that.

Last year, around this same time I presented our WWB coach, on his birthday, with a framed, detailed, print out which showed that USF was #1 RPI and UConn #2!

Of course, I mentioned that he probably wouldn't see that ever again in his lifetime.