Another Updated ESPN Way Too Early Top 25

[nwhoopfan]

Don't even pretend any of them can effectively matchup well against someone like Rori Harmon -- now that's guard quickness. Oh, wait, we already saw what happens when you put the entire Stanford guard corps (including de facto guard Jones) up against Harmon. They were vulnerable to teams with a quick guard last season and they'll be even more so this season.

Your point stands, but I would counter that Harmon torched them in November, but not so much in March. She was 6-18 shooting against Stanford in the Tourney. They must've figured out something to limit her effectiveness in the second meeting.

 

[Bone Dog]

Your point stands, but I would counter that Harmon torched them in November, but not so much in March. She was 6-18 shooting against Stanford in the Tourney. They must've figured out something to limit her effectiveness in the second meeting.

Which is exactly what I said: Tara eventually solved the vulnerability. And when she does it this year, I'll rank them at #2. Until then, not so much.

 

[Plebe]

No way the 6th (at best) team in the ACC is ranked #12. I just don't understand the love for that team.

But didn't they pound Duke into oblivion last year. ... twice?

 

[nwhoopfan]

But didn't they pound Duke into oblivion last year. ... twice?

I seem to recall the same.

Until proven otherwise NC State and Louisville seem like reasonable choices for top 2. Notre Dame and Virginia Tech could both finish ahead of UNC, but it's far from a given. After that, I'm perplexed that any other ACC team could be picked ahead of the Heels. To me they seem like 5th best AT WORST.

 

[Cuango]

Didn't say they did. But they have dramatically revamped their programs by accepting excellent talent through the portal. Coach Geno himself has opined on how the portal has changed women's basketball. He claimed that far too many athletes are entering it, and that many will not find a new home. But he also did state that UConn has not done what many other teams are doing: assigning an ass't coach full-time to the portal to identify and recruit athletes. If memory serves, he also insinuated that coaches are recruiting athletes secretly who announce they're going to a particular school right after formally putting their names in the portal.

The Way Too Early Top 25 has been roiled by the movements through the portal. So it's pretty clear that WCBB is being transformed. Will that lead to the top three changing? Don't know. But UConn could change by being more proactive in the future.

New world.

I doubt Geno will ever be an avid portal customer. One of the building blocks of this great program has been their care in recruiting players that fit into the culture they were creating. I would anticipate that will not change and that his portal shopping will be very selective.

 

[triaddukefan]

But didn't they pound Duke into oblivion last year. ... twice?

Hey hey hey..... the past is in the past.

 

[triaddukefan]

?? I really can't come up with 5 ACC teams who are clearly better.

I can. State, Louisville, Notre Dame, VPI, duke ,

I seem to recall the same.

Until proven otherwise NC State and Louisville seem like reasonable choices for top 2. Notre Dame and Virginia Tech could both finish ahead of UNC, but it's far from a given. After that, I'm perplexed that any other ACC team could be picked ahead of the Heels. To me they seem like 5th best AT WORST.

The past is in the past. I've erased any games from last year vs that school from my memory.... and no need to post box scores or youtube highlights either to refresh my memory either

 

[nwhoopfan]

The past is in the past. I've erased any games from last year vs that school from my memory.... and no need to post box scores or youtube highlights either to refresh my memory either

I may have reminded you of the past a time or two, but I certainly didn't stoop so low as to post highlights of previous games.

 

[Bigboote]

It’s all a crap shoot right now except for SC.

I have no problem with Stanford at #2. Who ya gonna put ahead of them? I’d move UConn, NCState, Creighton and maybe LSU up. I’d move Iowa and Virginia Tech down. But it’s still a WAG with all the portal movement.

 

[Cuango]

there is no delaying of development. The best players play, so I guess Lou is delaying the development of Caroline if she gets more minutes than her right?

Does anyone believe Lou will actually play more minutes than Caroline? I’m not seeing it but even if she does, it certainly won’t be by much. I’m guessing there is a set number of minutes that is a minimum for optimal player development. So, let’s say it’s 20 minutes. Will Caroline’s development be appreciably increased if she plays 25 minutes rather than 20? Anyway, my point is that Caroline is going to get plenty of minutes for her development and Lou getting 5-8 minutes more (which I seriously doubt) will have no impact on Caroline’s inexorable march toward being an All-American!

 

[Alydar]

Yes, I did. I mentioned her in a similar post in a different thread.

But your revision only makes my point -- Jones Jump Belibi Brink is a slow core that only gets slower as soon as Betts or Prechdel sub in. And you still need a fifth, preferably a guard. Will it be Nivar or Lepolo? Or go bigger with Iriafen?

Last year, Tara could run a big team because the Hull sisters were exceptionally quick for 6 footers. But it cost them a couple of times. They don't have the Hulls this season and they will be slower because of it, unless a freshman or two bails them out at guard.

I don't doubt Tara will solve this puzzle. But it's a huge question mark that ought to have placed them outside the top ten in a preseason estimation.

Uhm…..6 forwards…….0 guards. I don’t think that’s gonna cut it in the Pac-12.

I thought everything was clear in Creme's assessments. Stanford, despite the loss of the HUlls is loaded with talent. Right down to Betts. UConn, on the on the other hand, is literally nothing but questions. And UConn's freshman don't rate a question mark. They are totally ignored.

 

[Cuango]

I dont think the hull sisters were extremely quick and if speed is the biggest worry for the Cardinals i think they will be okay with that. That top 4 is as talented as any top 5 in the country with a coach like Tara leading them . The same with Geno leading us and our questions marks without paige . We believe were going to take it all still because we have Geno so why can't the same be said for Stanford ?

Because we have a more talented, better balanced roster.

 

[Cuango]

Perhaps this will be the year for Arizona, UCLA, or Oregon to win a PAC 12 Title? Adia Barnes did some rather ruthless pruning after last season and now has a much more talented mix of experienced upperclassmen and highly ranked, talented younger players. This may be her most talented roster since her arrival and will only get better next year as she is now recruiting (successfully)
elite players who just a few years ago, would not have even considered a program like Arizona. After reeling in the #8 class last season, she currently has commitments from #s 9,10, and 21 for 2023 and is among the finalists with a number of top players in 2024. Arizona is likely to be a power for the foreseeable future as long as Adia Barnes is in charge.

 

[Bone Dog]

Perhaps this will be the year for Arizona, UCLA, or Oregon to win a PAC 12 Title? Adia Barnes did some rather ruthless pruning after last season and now has a much more talented mix of experienced upperclassmen and highly ranked, talented younger players. This may be her most talented roster since her arrival and will only get better next year as she is now recruiting (successfully)
elite players who just a few years ago, would not have even considered a program like Arizona. After reeling in the #8 class last season, she currently has commitments from #s 9,10, and 21 for 2023 and is among the finalists with a number of top players in 2024. Arizona is likely to be a power for the foreseeable future as long as Adia Barnes is in charge.

She landed Maya Nnaji from Hopkins HS, class of 22, Paige's old teammate.

 

[Forego]

Don’t forget Brittany Hunter.

However, there was also Tihana Abrlic, Christine Rigby, Rashidat Sadiq, and Jessica MacCormack. Geno swore off transfers after Tihana, saying he didn’t have time to coach them out of their bad habits. But the Dark Years after Diana graduated convinced him to jump into the transfer pool again. It’s does seem he and the staff have been pickier although having more fish in the pool has certainly helped.

Just want to add an observation about transfers into the program. The trend seems to be that the more successful transfers into the program have been players that Geno actively recruited from high school. By successful I mean they fit into the program, competed to the best of their ability and finished their NCAA careers at UConn. Evina, Kim, and Sarah Northway are the best examples. Dorka looks like she is ready to break that trend. (I didn’t include Rita Williams here because she entered UConn from Mitchell College when it was a junior college.).

 

[CTtoSanDiego]

Not surprising, our Huskies have slipped a bit.....

UConn down, Texas up in final 2022-23 women's college basketball Way-Too-Early Top 25

There's plenty of movement (and ACC and SEC teams) in our top 10 a month before the season begins. Now all eyes are on how quickly new faces settle in new places.

www.espn.com

 

[oldhusky]

Not surprising, our Huskies have slipped a bit.....

UConn down, Texas up in final 2022-23 women's college basketball Way-Too-Early Top 25

There's plenty of movement (and ACC and SEC teams) in our top 10 a month before the season begins. Now all eyes are on how quickly new faces settle in new places.

www.espn.com

I think this new one is fairly realistic. I'm not sure I would put Iowa ahead of us. Having said that if things click the way we hope, we could easily move to third IMO. Before the Paige injury I thought # 2 was appropriate, but also thought the top three (including SC and Stanford) were a notch up from the next tier, so I think reaching the level of those two is far less likely.

Any of the top teams could have injuries like we have, and suddenly drop several places, you never know.

 

[Bone Dog]

"Kellie Harper nearly acquired an entire starting lineup in the transfer portal."

It's funny, this line is used to argue that Tennessee belongs at #4, and yet this looks to me to be precisely the reason why they should be rather lower.

I don't disagree that we belong lower than #2 until we prove something. I just think Iowa and Tennessee have things to prove as well, and belong even lower than we do. I have no doubt whatsoever that we are stronger than both of them. It's an open question in my mind whether we are stronger than Texas.

Our likely core starting 5 -- Azzi Caroline Dorka Aaliyah Nika -- are all veterans who have proved themselves playing together. Not so Tennessee or Texas (or even Stanford). Only Iowa in the group 3-5 has a stable lineup from last year, but they have never shown that they are competitive with us.

 

[Alydar]

"Kellie Harper nearly acquired an entire starting lineup in the transfer portal."

It's funny, this line is used to argue that Tennessee belongs at #4, and yet this looks to me to be precisely the reason why they should be rather lower.

I don't disagree that we belong lower than #2 until we prove something. I just think Iowa and Tennessee have things to prove as well, and belong even lower than we do. I have no doubt whatsoever that we are stronger than both of them. It's an open question in my mind whether we are stronger than Texas.

Our likely core starting 5 -- Azzi Caroline Dorka Aaliyah Nika -- are all veterans who have proved themselves playing together. Not so Tennessee or Texas (or even Stanford). Only Iowa in the group 3-5 has a stable lineup from last year, but they have never shown that they are competitive with us.

Reading through the teams I'd say that ESPN painted rosy scenarios for almost all of the top dozen ot so except for one team. Everyone at UConn is a question mark.

Both Creme and Voepel thought that the only reason UConn beat Stanford was Stanford having their worst game. What irks me is that if either of them actually looked at the history of FF games between these teams they would see that they almost always are low-scoring games. Geno vs Tara has always been a defensive chess match but neither of the two ESPN geniuses knew that. It's no surprise seeing that neither team's conference is under a Disney contract.

 

[UConnCat]

Reading through the teams I'd say that ESPN painted rosy scenarios for almost all of the top dozen ot so except for one team. Everyone at UConn is a question mark.

Literally true. Creme provides a one-paragraph preview on 25 teams. In his entire preview of 25 teams he asks 5 questions. Do you know which team was the subject of every one of those questions? Yep, UConn. Creme did not pose one question when discussing any of the other 24 teams he previewed. Not one question about teams 1 through 5 or teams 6 through 25. Not one. Only UConn has questions. The only team in the country with questions. No questions about Stanford's guards. No questions about Tennessee's issues with turnovers and poor perimeter shooting. No questions about Notre Dame's lack of depth. Iowa's defense? He doesn't literally ask the question but does concede there is a question there, but then proceeds to say that "any improvement" and Iowa is in the Final Four. Next.

 

[Alydar]

Literally true. Creme provides a one-paragraph preview on 25 teams. In his entire preview of 25 teams he asks 5 questions. Do you know which team was the subject of every one of those questions? Yep, UConn. Creme did not pose one question when discussing any of the other 24 teams he previewed. Not one question about teams 1 through 5 or teams 6 through 25. Not one. Only UConn has questions. The only team in the country with questions. No questions about Stanford's guards. No questions about Tennessee's issues with turnovers and poor perimeter shooting. No questions about Notre Dame's lack of depth. Iowa's defense? He doesn't literally ask the question but does concede there is a question there, but then proceeds to say that "any improvement" and Iowa is in the Final Four. Next.

How about Saniya Rivers being the prize in the new NCSt arrivals. She averaged 13 min in 27 appearances. Her offense? 25/3/50. Those numbers are correct. Creme thinks she's going to be the star of the newcomers? Wht? She was a top 5 recruit. But in the UConn preview there is no mention of the 2 top 5 "prizes" in UConn's freshman class?

What's are you smoking Charlie?

 

[UConnCat]

Let's look at the specific question Creme asks about UConn.

Question #1: Is Azzi Fudd ready to become the No 1 scoring option?

Well, duh. Once healthy, Azzi scored 25 in the win over Tennessee, 29 against Villanova, 24 against Marquette, 19 in the E8 win over NC State. She averaged more ppg than Texas's freshman Rori Harmon and shot the ball much more efficiently than Rori Harmon. What does Creme say about Rori Harmon? "In Rori Harmon, Schaefer has a point guard to build around and a star in the making." No questions asked. Okay.

 

[UConnCat]

Question #2: Who fills the leadership void with the graduation of Evina Westbrook, Christyn Williams and Olivia Nelson-Ododa?

Fair question, though I'd say losing Evina and Paige provides more of a void than losing Chrystyn and Liv. Still, the loss of experienced leaders is a valid question. Surely Charlie raised similar questions about the other teams that lost experienced players to graduation, right? Surely he asked about filling the leadership void with the graduation of Stanford's guards Lexie Hull, Lacie Hull and Anna Wilson? Nope. Leadership at the guard position is pretty important, no? Guess not. Texas lost Audrey Warren (grad transfer) and Joanne Allen-Taylor to graduation. Surely those experienced seniors created a leadership void at Texas, right? Apparently not.

 

[UConnCat]

Question #3: How much can Caroline Ducharme build on an impressive freshman season?

I'm sure Charlie asked this about all the freshman who had impressive seasons, right? He wouldn't ask that only of Caroline would he? Yes he would. Raven Johnson didn't even play last season but he doesn't ask any questions about how well she'll return from her torn acl. She'll be an option at the point to replace Henderson. I already mentioned how Harmon is a star in the making per Charlie. Stanford will benefit from the talents of KiKi Iriafen and Brooke Demetre, no questions asked. Sophomore Saniya Rivers was Wes Moore's "big score in the transfer portal." No questions asked about Rivers's 24% shooting and shooting 1-31 on threes. I guess she can only build on that performance.

 

[Alydar]

An excerpt from the SCar preview:

"A few reserves sought new homes via the transfer portal, and former point guard Destanni Henderson is a WNBA rookie making an impact with the Indiana Fever, but as long as Aliyah Boston is in Columbia, the Gamecocks are the team to beat in 2022-23. Notably, Kierra Fletcher joins from Georgia Tech, Victaria Saxton is returning for a fifth year, point guard Raven Johnson is expected to return from a season-ending knee injury suffered last November just two games into her freshman year"

I won't argue about SCar being No 1 or the value of Boston but what about pg?

Creme says UConn is hurt by the loss of Bueckers but the loss of Henderson is unimportant for 2 reasons, Boston and Henderson's replacements. Who are they? Raven Johnson is coming back from an ACL while the transfer from GT, Fletcher, is coming back after missing last season with a foot injury.
Fudd is a question due to HER foot injury and I'm sure that Bueckers will be a huge question next season but these 2 at SCar are ready to go, 100%

I suggest that Geno find out who their doctors are/were and get Fudd & Bueckers to them asap.

 

[UConnCat]

Question #4: Can Aaliyah Edwards and Dorka Juhasz elevate to even greater heights?

I'm sure Charlie asked this same question about other post players, right? Nope. Charlie just seems to assume the other post players around the country will reach those greater heights. Each and every one of Stanford's post players, including those who hardly played last season, will make then a title contender, no questions asked. Taylor Jones, Aaliyah Moore and DeYona Gaston provide the talent to make Texas a national title contender, no questions asked about whether they can "elevate to even greater heights?" Olivia Cochran and Liz Dixon overall stats were no better than Aaliyah's and Dorka's were last year but they will make the Cardinals "formidable inside" no questions asked. Notre Dame's transfer Ebo played 39 minutes in Texas's elite 8 loss to Stanford and didn't score one basket. Not one. Any questions asked about whether Ebo can elevate her game at Notre Dame? Any questions asked about how replacing Dodson with Ebo will affect Notre Dame's transition game? Nope. Notre Dame's Kylee Watson is mentioned by Creme. Any questions asked about whether the former 5 star recruit can, as a junior, be more productive than she was at Oregon? Nope. She's "versatile" and provides depth. I could go on.

 

[Bone Dog]

I won't argue about SCar being No 1 or the value of Boston but what about pg?

I've said this same thing in a different context, namely when I express my optimism concerning our chances against SC. Specifically, I've said we'll win the battle of the back courts easily because they are weak there, and we'll limit Boston's dominance (not shut her down, just limit) and out muscle Saxton, Kardoso and Amihere. That's not a promise of a win, but only of a competitive game.

That said, I think SC still deserves the #1 ranking despite the question marks at guard. They have fewer questions than anyone else in the top 10. But after them, only Stanford and Texas seem to me to have comparable question marks to ours. That says to me that it's a close call which of us deserves precedence. If it were me, I'd put Texas at #2 and Stanford at #3 and UConn at #4. But I could see shuffling these three teams -- it's that close. Everyone else belongs lower down the rankings.

We beat a Stanford team in the FF that looked stronger than what they're bringing back. I think the team were bringing back is stronger than what we had in that game. Because of that, I think you need a positive reason to rank them higher.

 

[UConnCat]

Question #5: Will Lou Lopez-Senechal's game translate from the MAAC to the national stage?

Lou, MAAC POY, isn't the only mid-major player transferring to a higher level program. Central Michigan's Molly Davis transferred to Iowa. Charlie says she'll "give Iowa yet another shooter and scorer." No questions asked.

 

[Plebe]

We beat a Stanford team in the FF that looked stronger than what they're bringing back. I think the team were bringing back is stronger than what we had in that game. Because of that, I think you need a positive reason to rank them higher.

You think that we're a better team without Bueckers than with her? I don't.

 

[Bone Dog]

And just how would I manage that SC game in February?

It's not like Geno needs my advice, but here's how a foolish coach would do it:

Platoon Dorka Amari and Ice against Boston and Kardoso. She'll get her double-double, but Kardoso won't. Then I'd let Aaliyah give Saxton more than she can handle. Even in her worst games, she's always been too much for Saxton, who's used to out-muscling opposing 4s. And backed up by Ayanna and Aubrey, I don't think subbing Amihere in at the 4 will avail. Then I'd let Nika wear out Raven Johnson, and see if Cooke and Beal can keep up with Azzi and Caroline. And when they get their fill of that, I'd bring Lou in for Nika and let them figure out how to deal with that.

In the NC loss, with Dorka out, Liv playing injured, and Aaliyah having to play cautiously for fear of fouls, we were no match for SC's front court. Saxton was able to hold Aaliyah off on the boards. That was a first. But if we can contain their front court, the pressure on their backcourt will be too much for them. It's not recognized enough how much Henderson's breakout game depended on there being no help defense on her. We won't have a problem like that this season.