Another starting five prediction

[Bone Dog]

@bayern7 a lot depends on how you define the term 'rotation.' If it's whoever plays in competitive parts of games, I expect that will likely be ~9. That's just because it's hard to get enough reps together for a larger number. I think this is typical for most years, though occasionally it's dipped to ~7. Last season, the rotation that settled out by mid-February amounted to 8. You could add Morgan or Aubrey, who got competitive minutes for parts of the season, though not for the whole of it.

If you're looking at stats for past seasons, it's not that easy to identify competitive minutes without scouring individual game stat sheets, and these aren't all that easy to find. A simpler rule of thumb is to look at season stats for who averaged 10+ minutes and played the entire season. It's not foolproof, but it gives a clearer picture than you get from an unfiltered welter of stats. Viewed through such a lens, it's hard to find many seasons where the rotation departs far from 8 players.

That said, I agree with your guess about who the 4 rotation players are likely to be once mid-February rolls around.

 

[oldude]

@bayern7 a lot depends on how you define the term 'rotation.' If it's whoever plays in competitive parts of games, I expect that will likely be ~9. That's just because it's hard to get enough reps together for a larger number. I think this is typical for most years, though occasionally it's dipped to ~7. Last season, the rotation that settled out by mid-February amounted to 8. You could add Morgan or Aubrey, who got competitive minutes for parts of the season, though not for the whole of it.

If you're looking at stats for past seasons, it's not that easy to identify competitive minutes without scouring individual game stat sheets, and these aren't all that easy to find. A simpler rule of thumb is to look at season stats for who averaged 10+ minutes and played the entire season. It's not foolproof, but it gives a clearer picture than you get from an unfiltered welter of stats. Viewed through such a lens, it's hard to find many seasons where the rotation departs far from 8 players.

That said, I agree with your guess about who the 4 rotation players are likely to be once mid-February rolls around.

A pretty easy rule of thumb for the regular rotation is anyone who plays in the 1st half or starts the 2nd half. After that, the score can often dictate some experimentation (mop up minutes) with reserves if UConn is up big.

As you point out, last season during the Big Dance, Geno went with 8. I do think that might have been 9-10 if Aubrey and/or Morgan had been healthy,

 

[Centerstream]

A pretty easy rule of thumb for the regular rotation is anyone who plays in the 1st half or starts the 2nd half. After that, the score can often dictate some experimentation (mop up minutes) with reserves if UConn is up big.

As you point out, last season during the Big Dance, Geno went with 8. I do think that might have been 9-10 if Aubrey and/or Morgan had been healthy,

I agree with you but it seems to me that in most every regular and postseason game that the starting five have also started the second half. That's why I was surprised Monday (I realize that it was an exhibition game) when only three of the starters started the second half. If I remember correctly, Kayleigh and Blanca started the second half instead of KK and Ashlynn.

 

[Stagnant]

Yeah, it is interesting that a different 5 started the second half.

Bayern’s 9 player rotation is as good of a guess as any imo.

 

[hookshot]

After the BC game, seems clear that Ash is the 5th starter at least to begin the season. I think what's more interesting is predicting who will round out the rotation. In one of his recent pressers Geno hinted at the maximum size of his rotation. He talked about a "second string" of players and mentioned 8-10 players. But from his tone, it seems that come tournament time his real rotation with this group will probably max out around 8-9 players barring injuries or rampant foul trouble. Which aligns with his core rotation size in the past. I should probably start a different thread about this, but I'm curious who people think the 4 core rotation players will end up being. For Caroline, Morgan, and Ayanna the likelihood of their being in that rotation is complicated by their long or ongoing recoveries. I think it's safe to assume Gandy is a long term investment. Kelis is raw and needs more time, especially as a point guard at UConn. Allie, I have no read on her long term projection because the sample is limited (telling in and of itself), but I do question her ability to compete against a SC or UCLA or Texas. So with a staring lineup of...

KK
Ashlynn
Azzi
Sarah
Serah

At this point the other four for me would be...

Kelis
Kayleigh
Allie
Blanca
Caroline
Morgan
Ayanna
Ice
Jana
Gandy

BUT a lot can change between now and March.

That is certainly a good capture of where things are now and could likely remain come March. The starting line up is a no-brainer, for now, plus Kayleigh and Blanca as-projected are virtual no-brainers for the 7 deep. You know what you get with the seasoned and versatile Brady in your rotation, and although Jana still has a way to go (in health and craft-skill), it is hard to imagine her not in the rotation mix just based on size match-ups alone. So these 9 give you back-ups at every position and both small / big and offense / defense combo options. The only thing missing then is another instant offense asset and that is a spot which Z could be the answer. The wildcard competition for that role is a fully rejuvenated CD, that gives you offense and more. So that would be my 10 to compete for your 9 max max rotation. There is just too much uncertainty on both the health and development readiness side of things to consider beyond these 10 at this early stage. I like to be surprised though

 

[Bone Dog]

That is certainly a good capture of where things are now and could likely remain come March. The starting line up is a no-brainer, for now, plus Kayleigh and Blanca as-projected are virtual no-brainers for the 7 deep. You know what you get with the seasoned and versatile Brady in your rotation, and although Jana still has a way to go (in health and craft-skill), it is hard to imagine her not in the rotation mix just based on size match-ups alone. So these 9 give you back-ups at every position and both small / big and offense / defense combo options. The only thing missing then is another instant offense asset and that is a spot which Z could be the answer. The wildcard competition for that role is a fully rejuvenated CD, that gives you offense and more. So that would be my 10 to compete for your 9 max max rotation. There is just too much uncertainty on both the health and development readiness side of things to consider beyond these 10 at this early stage. I like to be surprised though

It's a stunning thought that if Serah has to sit with foul trouble, Geno can bring in Jana. That just says a lot about the depth of this roster. He loses something in scoring, but Jana is as good an intimidator as anyone. This is where the lineup is right now.

If Blanca can fit herself into the system better, maybe by January, she could be the sub for Serah in a smaller lineup. Then Geno doesn't lose scoring, but maybe rebounding and the intimidation factor declines a bit.

I'm also kinda in love with the idea of a small lineup of Sarah Blanca Azzi KK and Ash. It may not be the best unit, but it will probably be the quickest.

 

[bayern7]

That is certainly a good capture of where things are now and could likely remain come March. The starting line up is a no-brainer, for now, plus Kayleigh and Blanca as-projected are virtual no-brainers for the 7 deep. You know what you get with the seasoned and versatile Brady in your rotation, and although Jana still has a way to go (in health and craft-skill), it is hard to imagine her not in the rotation mix just based on size match-ups alone. So these 9 give you back-ups at every position and both small / big and offense / defense combo options. The only thing missing then is another instant offense asset and that is a spot which Z could be the answer. The wildcard competition for that role is a fully rejuvenated CD, that gives you offense and more. So that would be my 10 to compete for your 9 max max rotation. There is just too much uncertainty on both the health and development readiness side of things to consider beyond these 10 at this early stage. I like to be surprised though

Agreed on all points, well said

 

[MilfordHusky]

I believe Geno said he is looking for a rotation of 8-10. He wants a lower number (not 15) for continuity. We'll see what happens. I'm thinking Blanca, Kayleigh, Ice, Jana, and maybe Caroline.

 

[FanSince17]

I believe Geno said he is looking for a rotation of 8-10. He wants a lower number (not 15) for continuity. We'll see what happens. I'm thinking Blanca, Kayleigh, Ice, Jana, and maybe Caroline.

From another DMVer: He needs to play Allie. 2nd year. We have to assume she's doing everything she's supposed to do. She gets a chance, then after this year everyone concerned will have a feel for the future at UConn. Caroline is going to be a HS or college basketball coach. She's living a great life under very difficult circumstances. If Caroline's 100%, that changes the equation.

 

[Cuango]

From another DMVer: He needs to play Allie. 2nd year. We have to assume she's doing everything she's supposed to do. She gets a chance, then after this year everyone concerned will have a feel for the future at UConn. Caroline is going to be a HS or college basketball coach. She's living a great life under very difficult circumstances. If Caroline's 100%, that changes the equation.

Agree! Allie at this point is the presumed successor to Azzi as the three point ace of the team. I would guess she will get every opportunity this season to show she can handle that role as a junior & senior. I am definitely pulling for her to do well this season as she (if successful) will be an important part of the team in 26/27 & 27/28.

 

[Centerstream]

Agree! Allie at this point is the presumed successor to Azzi as the three point ace of the team. I would guess she will get every opportunity this season to show she can handle that role as a junior & senior. I am definitely pulling for her to do well this season as she (if successful) will be an important part of the team in 26/27 & 27/28.

One thing I noticed about Allie in the BC game is when she drove to the lane, stopped and sank a mid range jumper, ala Paige and Azzi. If she can successfully continue to do this, she may get a lot more minutes.

 

[Skeets]

I'm fairly confident we know who the starting 5 will be, at least to start the season. The other 4 players in a 9 player rotation are likely to change depending on who is playing well and who isn't. Plus they could change depending on the matchups Geno wants to create.

 

[oldhusky]

After the BC game, seems clear that Ash is the 5th starter at least to begin the season. I think what's more interesting is predicting who will round out the rotation. In one of his recent pressers Geno hinted at the maximum size of his rotation. He talked about a "second string" of players and mentioned 8-10 players. But from his tone, it seems that come tournament time his real rotation with this group will probably max out around 8-9 players barring injuries or rampant foul trouble. Which aligns with his core rotation size in the past. I should probably start a different thread about this, but I'm curious who people think the 4 core rotation players will end up being. For Caroline, Morgan, and Ayanna the likelihood of their being in that rotation is complicated by their long or ongoing recoveries. I think it's safe to assume Gandy is a long term investment. Kelis is raw and needs more time, especially as a point guard at UConn. Allie, I have no read on her long term projection because the sample is limited (telling in and of itself), but I do question her ability to compete against a SC or UCLA or Texas. So with a staring lineup of...

KK
Ashlynn
Azzi
Sarah
Serah

At this point the other four for me would be...

Kelis
Kayleigh
Allie
Blanca
Caroline
Morgan
Ayanna
Ice
Jana
Gandy

BUT a lot can change between now and March.

This is a pretty good breakdown. Geno obviously believes a great deal in developing chemistry between a relatively small group of players. I could see a scenario where the rotation in most games until the game was put away might be 10, but where in a true test he would shrink it to 8. In that expanded version maybe Allie becomes a designated backup to Azzi.

With 10 everyone can get used to their role as the backup to a certain starter, and chemistry can more easily be achieved with well defined roles. Having said that I think the odds are against that being the norm at least in contested games, because Geno will want to get more minutes from the best of the second unit than just backing up one position, and will want to move people around and tweak lineups depending on specific game needs and opponents.

Of the four mentioned Ice is the most vulnerable in my opinion, if Geno reduced it to 8. She faces competition from Ayanna which she could certainly win, but perhaps a more serious threat from Jana or Blanca. If either of those emerges as a significantly better player overall than Ice, it would be easy to phase her out. Jana could play more that just backup 5 minutes with Serah sometimes sliding to the 4, and Blanca in addition to significant minutes at the 3, could play the 4 as well.

With the possible exception of Kayleigh as the backup 1, and Jana as the backup 5, the backups for the other 3 positions face competition not just from players at that natural position, but also from players that are smaller or bigger.

 

[sno-cat]

I agree with you but it seems to me that in most every regular and postseason game that the starting five have also started the second half. That's why I was surprised Monday (I realize that it was an exhibition game) when only three of the starters started the second half. If I remember correctly, Kayleigh and Blanca started the second half instead of KK and Ashlynn.

Maybe Geno is considering Kayleigh and Bianca together a plug and play replacement to give KK and Ash a rest from the high intensity starting 5. This would enable the team to keep the high intensity play going for a longer period of time?

 

[oldhusky]

Maybe Geno is considering Kayleigh and Bianca together a plug and play replacement to give KK and Ash a rest from the high intensity starting 5. This would enable the team to keep the high intensity play going for a longer period of time?

I think there is something to that. Out of the 5 starters in the exhibition, KK and Ash are the ones that are most likely subbed for first. Azzi, Sarah, and Serah are expected to get significantly more minutes. As a result how Kayleigh and Blanca play with the big 3 is a question Geno wants to answer if that would happen frequently when the season starts.

 

[Bigboote]

I think there is something to that. Out of the 5 starters in the exhibition, KK and Ash are the ones that are most likely subbed for first. Azzi, Sarah, and Serah are expected to get significantly more minutes. As a result how Kayleigh and Blanca play with the big 3 is a question Geno wants to answer if that would happen frequently when the season starts.

Plus, bringing in two high-energy disruptors proved very effective last year. Kayleigh and either Blanca or Morgan would be the closest thing on this year's team. If the two of them (especially Kayleigh) can be effective, that would be 40 minutes of disruption.

 

[FanSince17]

I rewatched the exhibition last night with somewhat lower expectations. I noticed more who was in the game as I was watching and analyzing. I noticed quickly that Blanca got to spots on the floor in a flash. I remember a trap she was involved in on the sideline a bit outside the 3-point line. Boom, 3 steps from the top of the key, long as heck, a steal and a pass downcourt. Bam
I'll say it again, we watch these games from an angle. The cameras are on the second level poined downward. from that angle, we cannot "feel" the impact of size- height and weight, length, and strength. She's got all the above. Is she not one of the most athletic players in the country? How about NaLyssa Smith or DiJonai Carrington.......comparisons.
If she catches on, doesn't she have to start? OMG UConn's gunna carve people up. It'll be unfair. Bad for basketball. (just kidding)

 

[Bone Dog]

She's got all the above. Is she not one of the most athletic players in the country? How about NaLyssa Smith or DiJonai

Yup. Blanca is a formidable athlete. Way quicker than Nalyssa and much bigger and longer than Dijonnai. I think this may be the most athletic roster we’ve seen in many years.

At one point, when a BC player was shooting free throws, I was struck by the UConn players lined up for the rebound. Ice and Sarah (iirc) in the forward spots and Blanca in the elbow spot — what a huge group to see together! And they aren’t even the tallest players on the roster. I think kids can seem larger or smaller than their measured height in inches. Sarah is a big 6’2”. Ice is a very big 6’3” as was Aaliyah. Ayanna has always seemed like she’s a very big 6’2”. And Blanca seems like another one, longer than you’d expect and seems very strong. And Serah at 6’4” is another formidable rim protector, but one who can run in transition. I expect to see Serah finishing on the break often.

 

[DEpup]

I heard Geno say "second unit" and that's the first time I've heard him say that and that makes me think he'd really like to get to 10 players seeing significant minutes in a majority of games. (I worded that carefully because of course a really big game could be down to 7ish.)

Just based on what I saw, for me as of now that would be:

KK/Kayleigh
Azzi/Zeibel
Ash/Blanca
Sarah/Ice
Serah/Jana

I think Caroline and Patterson are the next group and could easily push into the 10 and dislodge Zeibel and Jana if they can remain healthy and catch up after all the lost time.

I think Kelis and Gandy will be freshman BE and 4th quarter players. Not terrible, players like Gabby started that way. I doubt Cheli ever hits the floor this year and I bet that will be good for her in the long run. A foot issue is not something to rush.

 

[FanSince17]

Yup. Blanca is a formidable athlete. Way quicker than Nalyssa and much bigger and longer than Dijonnai. I think this may be the most athletic roster we’ve seen in many years.

At one point, when a BC player was shooting free throws, I was struck by the UConn players lined up for the rebound. Ice and Sarah (iirc) in the forward spots and Blanca in the elbow spot — what a huge group to see together! And they aren’t even the tallest players on the roster. I think kids can seem larger or smaller than their measured height in inches. Sarah is a big 6’2”. Ice is a very big 6’3” as was Aaliyah. Ayanna has always seemed like she’s a very big 6’2”. And Blanca seems like another one, longer than you’d expect and seems very strong. And Serah at 6’4” is another formidable rim protector, but one who can run in transition. I expect to see Serah finishing on the break often.

Watch out. I coached varsity girls and I called my center "thick" one time and she looked at me like she could scratch my eyeballs out.
These are big people. It's the supreme basketball compliment. Not just tall. Look at Blanca's shoulders. No amount of contact bothers Sarah. In the Natty game, remember when Joyce flew at Sarah trying to get a steal and knocked Sarah flat. Sarah was still going to catch that ball and if she had to she could have probably passed it. Unbelievable.

 

[Cuango]

Watch out. I coached varsity girls and I called my center "thick" one time and she looked at me like she could scratch my eyeballs out.
These are big people. It's the supreme basketball compliment. Not just tall. Look at Blanca's shoulders. No amount of contact bothers Sarah. In the Natty game, remember when Joyce flew at Sarah trying to get a steal and knocked Sarah flat. Sarah was still going to catch that ball and if she had to she could have probably passed it. Unbelievable.

Sarah’s hands are like velcro! If she can get her hand on it, it’s hers. Best hands I’ve ever seen!

 

[DefenseBB]

Sarah’s hands are like velcro! If she can get her hand on it, it’s hers. Best hands I’ve ever seen!

So are you saying any defender would need to RIP the ball away? 🤣

 

[freshler40]

Plus, bringing in two high-energy disruptors proved very effective last year. Kayleigh and either Blanca or Morgan would be the closest thing on this year's team. If the two of them (especially Kayleigh) can be effective, that would be 40 minutes of disruption.

The full game full court press in the BC game supports this experiment. A more mobile 5 needed to be involved for this press to be effective. Our press didn't work well for much of the game and gave BC a lot of open 3 pointers. Eleven, I think? Maybe we didn't think they could shoot that well this early in the season, but it happened.

 

[Bone Dog]

The full game full court press in the BC game supports this experiment. A more mobile 5 needed to be involved for this press to be effective. Our press didn't work well for much of the game and gave BC a lot of open 3 pointers. Eleven, I think? Maybe we didn't think they could shoot that well this early in the season, but it happened.

I don’t think there is “a more mobile 5” in all of D1. Like all experiments, this press needs a little more practice. But Geno seems to have announced his intentions. As John Paul Jones famously quipped, “I have not yet begun to run!”

 

[FanSince17]

Her press break involved flashing their 5 to the free throw line in the backcourt. Our 5 did not take that away. Hard to believe it was by design. (Geno) Then she had players sprint in their lanes to attack. They spotted up and moved the ball to the openings and took open 3's. Reason we could not pull away until Azzi's onslaught in the 3rd period. We also were not able to keep ball-handlers trapped. They escaped virtually every time. I can understand the physical stuff, like being overly gassed in the first game with fans, but not the mental stuff. Serah's a 4 at the next level, she has to be able to move and anticipate if we're going to be able to press with her in the lineup. Ice- same.