Anatomy of a Last Second Shot

[diggerfoot]

..... or fraction of a second as the case may be. Conventional wisdom holds that Williams should have intentionally missed her second foul shot. I do not believe the probabilities necessarily favor that strategy.

If the fouls shot was missed, Baylor’s only option would be to heave a shot as soon as they obtained the rebound. That’s a very low probability which seems to favor the strategy. However, if they have to take the ball out of bounds after a made shot there are two independent events that have to both occur: Baylor has to successfully make an in bound pass and then make a shot.

If defense was not a factor the in bound pass is made cross court to near the opponents basket. Multiplying the the two probabilities still yields a very high result. But defense is a factor. The nearer to the opponents basket the pass the lower the probability it gets completed. There is a high probability of completing the pass near your own basket, in which case multiplying the probabilities of completing the pass and making the shot stoll should be lower than heaving a shot after a rebound.

There may be an optimum distance for which making the in bounds pass and ensuing shot yields a higher probability when multiplied together, but two other factors come into play. One is how good the defense plays the passing lanes. UConn is very good at this. If a team is good enough at playing passing lanes then the probabilities of multiplying successful pass and shot together will never be higher than a heave after a rebound.

The other factor is what a team chooses to be a winning philosophy. Instructing a player to intentionally miss a shot means lack of confidence that the defense is good enough for the ensuing task of making the in bounds pass difficult. At times this may be the right strategy, but the better a team is at defending the more you want to nourish their trust in that, secure in the knowledge that the probabilities of two independent events favor you.

The second is what kind of philosophy you adapt towards winning games.

 

[Biff]

I think your analysis is missing a variable, one that is important in the consideration.

On a long inbound pass the result might be 1) It's completed, 2) It's not completed or 3) A foul occurs. You left out possibility 3 which is a real consideration. If in defending the inbound pass the defense can lure the offense into a foul, the clock stops and free throws ensue which give the team behind a very high percentage of success.

Whether one option of another is better depends on many factors including the skills of the teams but if I have a team that has a propensity to foul in tight situations I have to think much more about missing the free throw.

 

[Blakeon18]

On a missed foul shot when does the clock start? Is it when the ball is touched by a player?
If the defensive rebounder gets it...and assuming she is able to release the ball within .8 seconds... not a given with some kind of a necessary wind-up... the game clock is at zero when the ball comes down. Frankly it is extremely unlikely that a 92 foot heave makes it 92 feet....much less goes in. The team ahead should have nobody on the line to even get near the rebounder much less foul her.

Seems to me: it is not a lack of confidence in your own defense...just the probabilities are saying 'miss it'.

 

[diggerfoot]

I should have referred to successfully defended or not, which would include fouling. Fouling is why you would not contest the rebound, but in defending a long distance pass you don’t need to steal, only disrupt, which increases the odds os success and decreases the odds of fouling.

 

[Longtime fan]

I should have referred to successfully defended or not, which would include fouling. Fouling is why you would not contest the rebound, but in defending a long distance pass you don’t need to steal, only disrupt, which increases the odds os success and decreases the odds of fouling.

I am in the camp of missing the shot. True, the clock only starts when a player touches the ball. But there remained only 8 tenths of a second. The ball could bounce in a way that is awkward to secure. Their body position could be awkward for a football type pass. There players could be in her way or block her vision. The player then has to think...what do I do? Heave it toward the hoop ( virtually impossible ) or heave it to a ;player in the mid court area? To do that effectively, I have to take the time to find someone with my eyes....etc. In addition, it is not something the players awaiting the shot are used to executing, or even thinking about. I believe, therefore, that the strategy of missing the shot comes with certainty.

 

[MD#12Fan]

I am in the camp of missing the shot. True, the clock only starts when a player touches the ball. But there remained only 8 tenths of a second. The ball could bounce in a way that is awkward to secure. Their body position could be awkward for a football type pass. There players could be in her way or block her vision. The player then has to think...what do I do? Heave it toward the hoop ( virtually impossible ) or heave it to a ;player in the mid court area? To do that effectively, I have to take the time to find someone with my eyes....etc. In addition, it is not something the players awaiting the shot are used to executing, or even thinking about. I believe, therefore, that the strategy of missing the shot comes with certainty.

100%
There are a lot of strategies that can be debated one way or the other. Switching on screens, not switching... the one that comes up a lot is: up by 3, last second situation, do you foul? I think you do.
This one is a no-brainer IMO. To me it's too easy to even analyze. Securing the rebound itself takes time, then a successful heave to the basket. Come on. Let them inbound, set up a play, that believe it or not is actually practiced. Ever wonder why the NFL quarterbacks complete like 60-70% of their passes? I agree with you only if you contend that a half court shot is harder than a three-quarter court shot.
Sounds like my golf game: paralysis by analysis.

 

[CocoHusky]

@diggerfoot timely discussion especially if you happen to see the Celtics vs Mavs game last night.
My biggest argument against intentionally missing a foul shot is that is hardly anyone ever practices missing. In the Celtics vs Mavs game last night Smart tried to intentionally miss and completely missed the rim. The result of shot that fails to hit the rim is a dead ball & no time off the clock. It is not a trivial thing to step up to the line and try and miss a foul shot.

 

[hussybulldog]

..... or fraction of a second as the case may be. Conventional wisdom holds that Williams should have intentionally missed her second foul shot. I do not believe the probabilities necessarily favor that strategy.

If the fouls shot was missed, Baylor’s only option would be to heave a shot as soon as they obtained the rebound. That’s a very low probability which seems to favor the strategy. However, if they have to take the ball out of bounds after a made shot there are two independent events that have to both occur: Baylor has to successfully make an in bound pass and then make a shot.

If defense was not a factor the in bound pass is made cross court to near the opponents basket. Multiplying the the two probabilities still yields a very high result. But defense is a factor. The nearer to the opponents basket the pass the lower the probability it gets completed. There is a high probability of completing the pass near your own basket, in which case multiplying the probabilities of completing the pass and making the shot stoll should be lower than heaving a shot after a rebound.

There may be an optimum distance for which making the in bounds pass and ensuing shot yields a higher probability when multiplied together, but two other factors come into play. One is how good the defense plays the passing lanes. UConn is very good at this. If a team is good enough at playing passing lanes then the probabilities of multiplying successful pass and shot together will never be higher than a heave after a rebound.

The other factor is what a team chooses to be a winning philosophy. Instructing a player to intentionally miss a shot means lack of confidence that the defense is good enough for the ensuing task of making the in bounds pass difficult. At times this may be the right strategy, but the better a team is at defending the more you want to nourish their trust in that, secure in the knowledge that the probabilities of two independent events favor you.

The second is what kind of philosophy you adapt towards winning games.

Did you forwards this to Geno so he can tell his teams before the game? (Too long for the time out of any)

 

[hussybulldog]

@diggerfoot timely discussion especially if you happen to see the Celtics vs Mavs game last night.
My biggest argument against intentionally missing a foul shot is that is hardly anyone ever practices missing. In the Celtics vs Mavs game last night Smart tried to intentionally miss and completely missed the rim. The result of shot that fails to hit the rim is a dead ball & no time off the clock. It not a trivial thing to step up to the line and try and miss a foul shot.

Maybe some exercises should be done for that?

 

[Bigboote]

@diggerfoot timely discussion especially if you happen to see the Celtics vs Mavs game last night.
My biggest argument against intentionally missing a foul shot is that is hardly anyone ever practices missing. In the Celtics vs Mavs game last night Smart tried to intentionally miss and completely missed the rim. The result of shot that fails to hit the rim is a dead ball & no time off the clock. It not a trivial thing to step up to the line and try and miss a foul shot.

My thoughts exactly at the time, and they haven't changed. After missing three in a row, one of them barely grazing the rim, what are the odds she was going to be able to purposely miss and draw iron?

 

[diggerfoot]

Lots of good stuff here. Thanks for contributing. I agree that you could make the carom from a missed foul shot so awkward that the rebounder has little chance in heaving the ball afterwards. I also agree that if you attempt to make such a shot you increase the chance of missing it altogether.

Another factor occurred to me against my own argument. I believe that the probabilities of a very good defense being able to disrupt a long pass without fouling are high. However, sometimes referees call fouls that are not there.

 

[Longtime fan]

@diggerfoot timely discussion especially if you happen to see the Celtics vs Mavs game last night.
My biggest argument against intentionally missing a foul shot is that is hardly anyone ever practices missing. In the Celtics vs Mavs game last night Smart tried to intentionally miss and completely missed the rim. The result of shot that fails to hit the rim is a dead ball & no time off the clock. It is not a trivial thing to step up to the line and try and miss a foul shot.

I used to do it all the time while trying to make the shot.

 

[Superhuskies]

She misses the ones you want, and then, makesthe one you don't....