Analysis and Comments - UConn vs USC - Elite Eight (Game 4 - NCAA Tournament)

[cferraro04]

Comments

Here we are in the elite 8... Who would have thought this was possible with Azzi, Jana El Alfy, Aubrey, Caroline, and Ayanna, all of which are sitting on the bench with injuries. With two freshmen in the starting line-up and a redshirt freshman first off the bench. My opinion is that this team by getting to the elite 8 has over-achieved. They are playing with house money at this point. It would be a wonderful thing if we fans can be treated to a magical season where UConn somehow, despite all its adversity, despite having such a short bench and a margin of error of zero manages to win its 12 championship.

It is going to get extremely difficult from here on out. Our players were gassed at the end of the Duke game. That game was played at a slow speed it would have been worse if the game was a high-octane affair. Geno has to be given a lot of credit for coaching this team to this point. Let's hope he has a few things left in his bag of tricks.
USC is a team that is deserving of its number one seed. They have compiled a 29 and 5 record on the season. They were runners-up in the PAC twelve conference tournament beating both 'Zona' and UCLA before losing to the Cardinal in the final. They are led by freshmen phenom Ju - Ju Watkins who is averaging a NCAA second-best 26.9 points per game. She has averaged 22 shots per game through the regular and post-season. Against Baylor, she went 8 for 28 to score a game-high 30 points. She is going to be extremely difficult to defend. Let's hope our team defense will be able to contain her. She is the head of the snake but McKenzie Forbes is capable of picking up the slack so we will have to stop both of them and let the rest of their team attempt to beat us.

USC will start:
1. Ju Ju Watkins, 6'2" Freshman Guard;
2. McKenzie Forbes, 6'0" Graduate Guard/Forward;
3. Ryan Marshall, 6'4" Junior Forward/Center;
4. Kayla Padilla, 5'9" Graduate Guard;
5. Kaitlyn Davis, 6'2" Graduate Guard.

USC will primarily play the starters they only have 3 other players who in the post-season average significant minutes:
1. Clarice Akunwafo, 6'6" Jr. Center - 11.8 minutes
2. Kayla Williams, 5'7" Senior Guard - 11.6 minutes
3. Taylor Bigby, 6'1" Redshirt Sophomore Guard - 10.5 minutes

USC averages 75 points per game while holding their opponents to 61.7 points. USC averages 7.8 three-pointers per game and their opponents average 5.3 three-pointers. The Trojans have averaged 12.8 free throws made per game. Their opponent's average, 11.6 made free throws. They average 38.3 rebounds per game while their opponents average 34.8. They take pretty good care of the basketball only committing 12.2 turnovers per game while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 15.9 times per game. When they turn a team over they are off to the races scoring 18.2 points per game off turnovers. Their opponents average 11.3 points off turnovers per game. They average 8.2 steals and 6.0 blocks per game while their opponents average 6.4 steals and 2.7 blocks per game. USC is a quality basketball team with an RPI of 6 and an SOS of 8. UConn's RPI is 5 and its SOS is 6. Get ready for a barn burner...a game that could end the Huskies 2023-24 season or once again propel them to yet another final four. Let's Go HUSKIES! Let's Go HUSKIES! Let's Go HUSKIES!

Analysis

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Rayah Marshall, 6'4" - Rayah is averaging a double-double for the season. She averages 10.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.1 blocks per game. Aaliyah cannot allow herself to get into foul trouble in this game. We need her to stay on the floor. Aaliyah is averaging 17.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. I think Aaliyah will play inspired basketball as she is looking at possible playing two more game in a UConn uniform. Advantage - UConn

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs McKenzie Forbes, 6'0" - The Trojans present a lot of mismatches for UConn as they will have a decided height advantage in 4 of the 5 match-ups. Putting Paige on Kaitlyn Davis makes more sense from a height perspective however, Kaitlyn is the Trojans 5th scoring option while McKenzie is their 2nd option. We will have to live with the 4-inch mismatch of Shade on Davis if we want to limit USC's scoring potential. McKenzie averages 14 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.2 three-pointers, and 1 steal per game. Paige should be able to dominate this match-up as she is averaging 21.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.1 three-pointers per game. Advantage - UConn

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Ju Ju Watkins, 6'2" - I covered just what a phenom Ju Ju is as a freshman. Nika will have a very difficult assignment to convert Ju Ju from a phenom to an average player. It may in the end be too daunting a task. But, Nika is made for these moments and she would not have it any other way. I believe she is going to need help from her teammates in containing Ju Ju. Ju Ju averages 26.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.4 steals, 1.6 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers per game. Those are All-American numbers and it puts her second behind Caitlin Clark. Nika is averaging 6.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. Some might argue that if Nika can keep Ju Ju below her game averages, she wins the match-up...but the reality is even if Ju Ju plays below her average she will still dominate this match-up. Advantage - USC

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Kaitlyn Davis, 6'2" - Ashlynn did not have a very productive game against Duke. Her total contribution was 4 rebounds and 1 assist. On a good note, she only had one turnover against Duke's very tough defense. She will have to be more productive in this game. I believe that she will treat this game as a bounce-back game. Ashlynn will give up 4 inches to Kaitlyn Davis. Kaitlyn averages 6'1 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1 steal per game. Ashlynn averages 11.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Advantage - UConn


KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Kayla Padilla, 5'9" - Kayla is the Trojans' 4th scoring option but she can and does knock down the three-pointers. Kayla averages 8.0 points, 1.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1 steal, and 2 three-pointers per game. KK is averaging 8.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.3 steals, and .8 three-pointers per game. While I think statistically KK and Kayla are very close, I think KK's defense and her over all game will have more of a positive impact on the game.
Advantage - UConn.

Intangibles

UConn's usual disadvantage of having a shortened bench is somewhat minimized by the fact that USC primarily plays the starting five players and only uses three off the bench for an average of 10 minutes per game. Lately, Ice has been the only player coming off the bench as we haven't seen much of Q at all. We have in the past been susceptible to the opposing team's star player and Ju Ju represents a large 6'2", effective, high-scoring guard...if we cannot contain Ju Ju she may very well be the reason we lose. Foul trouble hurts us more than USC as Geno has precious few options if one of our star players gets into foul trouble. There will be an incredible amount of pressure on the players as the winner advances to the final four. We play two seniors, one red-shirt junior, and three freshmen. USC plays three graduate students, 1 senior, 3 juniors, and 1 freshman. Advantage - USC

Bench

USC will bring 9.2 points and 6 rebounds off the bench. UConn can bring 9.4 points and 6 rebounds off the bench. Advantage - Even

Coaching

Geno has done a great job getting this team to this point. I believe he will have them ready and this team will leave it all on the court. I don't think USC has had to face the kind of defense that they will see with UConn.
Advantage - UConn

Score

UConn - 71
USC - 67

MOV - 4

 

[MSGRET]

Comments

Here we are in the elite 8... Who would have thought this was possible with Azzi, Jana El Alfy, Aubrey, Caroline, and Ayanna, all of which are sitting on the bench with injuries. With two freshmen in the starting line-up and a redshirt freshman first off the bench. My opinion is that this team by getting to the elite 8 has over-achieved. They are playing with house money at this point. It would be a wonderful thing if we fans can be treated to a magical season where UConn somehow, despite all its adversity, despite having such a short bench and a margin of error of zero manages to win its 12 championship.

It is going to get extremely difficult from here on out. Our players were gassed at the end of the Duke game. That game was played at a slow speed it would have been worse if the game was a high-octane affair. Geno has to be given a lot of credit for coaching this team to this point. Let's hope he has a few things left in his bag of tricks.
USC is a team that is deserving of its number one seed. They have compiled a 29 and 5 record on the season. They were runners-up in the PAC twelve conference tournament beating both 'Zona' and UCLA before losing to the Cardinal in the final. They are led by freshmen phenom Ju - Ju Watkins who is averaging a NCAA second-best 26.9 points per game. She has averaged 22 shots per game through the regular and post-season. Against Baylor, she went 8 for 28 to score a game-high 30 points. She is going to be extremely difficult to defend. Let's hope our team defense will be able to contain her. She is the head of the snake but McKenzie Forbes is capable of picking up the slack so we will have to stop both of them and let the rest of their team attempt to beat us.

USC will start:
1. Ju Ju Watkins, 6'2" Freshman Guard;
2. McKenzie Forbes, 6'0" Graduate Guard/Forward;
3. Ryan Marshall, 6'4" Junior Forward/Center;
4. Kayla Padilla, 5'9" Graduate Guard;
5. Kaitlyn Davis, 6'2" Graduate Guard.

USC will primarily play the starters they only have 3 other players who in the post-season average significant minutes:
1. Clarice Akunwafo, 6'6" Jr. Center - 11.8 minutes
2. Kayla Williams, 5'7" Senior Guard - 11.6 minutes
3. Taylor Bigby, 6'1" Redshirt Sophomore Guard - 10.5 minutes

USC averages 75 points per game while holding their opponents to 61.7 points. USC averages 7.8 three-pointers per game and their opponents average 5.3 three-pointers. The Trojans have averaged 12.8 free throws made per game. Their opponent's average, 11.6 made free throws. They average 38.3 rebounds per game while their opponents average 34.8. They take pretty good care of the basketball only committing 12.2 turnovers per game while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 15.9 times per game. When they turn a team over they are off to the races scoring 18.2 points per game off turnovers. Their opponents average 11.3 points off turnovers per game. They average 8.2 steals and 6.0 blocks per game while their opponents average 6.4 steals and 2.7 blocks per game. USC is a quality basketball team with an RPI of 6 and an SOS of 8. UConn's RPI is 5 and its SOS is 6. Get ready for a barn burner...a game that could end the Huskies 2023-24 season or once again propel them to yet another final four. Let's Go HUSKIES! Let's Go HUSKIES! Let's Go HUSKIES!

Analysis

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Rayah Marshall, 6'4" - Rayah is averaging a double-double for the season. She averages 10.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.1 blocks per game. Aaliyah cannot allow herself to get into foul trouble in this game. We need her to stay on the floor. Aaliyah is averaging 17.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. I think Aaliyah will play inspired basketball as she is looking at possible playing two more game in a UConn uniform. Advantage - UConn

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs McKenzie Forbes, 6'0" - The Trojans present a lot of mismatches for UConn as they will have a decided height advantage in 4 of the 5 match-ups. Putting Paige on Kaitlyn Davis makes more sense from a height perspective however, Kaitlyn is the Trojans 5th scoring option while McKenzie is their 2nd option. We will have to live with the 4-inch mismatch of Shade on Davis if we want to limit USC's scoring potential. McKenzie averages 14 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.2 three-pointers, and 1 steal per game. Paige should be able to dominate this match-up as she is averaging 21.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.1 three-pointers per game. Advantage - UConn

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Ju Ju Watkins, 6'2" - I covered just what a phenom Ju Ju is as a freshman. Nika will have a very difficult assignment to convert Ju Ju from a phenom to an average player. It may in the end be too daunting a task. But, Nika is made for these moments and she would not have it any other way. I believe she is going to need help from her teammates in containing Ju Ju. Ju Ju averages 26.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.4 steals, 1.6 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers per game. Those are All-American numbers and it puts her second behind Caitlin Clark. Nika is averaging 6.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. Some might argue that if Nika can keep Ju Ju below her game averages, she wins the match-up...but the reality is even if Ju Ju plays below her average she will still dominate this match-up. Advantage - USC

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Kaitlyn Davis, 6'2" - Ashlynn did not have a very productive game against Duke. Her total contribution was 4 rebounds and 1 assist. On a good note, she only had one turnover against Duke's very tough defense. She will have to be more productive in this game. I believe that she will treat this game as a bounce-back game. Ashlynn will give up 4 inches to Kaitlyn Davis. Kaitlyn averages 6'1 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1 steal per game. Ashlynn averages 11.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Advantage - UConn


KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Kayla Padilla, 5'9" - Kayla is the Trojans' 4th scoring option but she can and does knock down the three-pointers. Kayla averages 8.0 points, 1.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1 steal, and 2 three-pointers per game. KK is averaging 8.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.3 steals, and .8 three-pointers per game. While I think statistically KK and Kayla are very close, I think KK's defense and her over all game will have more of a positive impact on the game.
Advantage - UConn.

Intangibles

UConn's usual disadvantage of having a shortened bench is somewhat minimized by the fact that USC primarily plays the starting five players and only uses three off the bench for an average of 10 minutes per game. Lately, Ice has been the only player coming off the bench as we haven't seen much of Q at all. We have in the past been susceptible to the opposing team's star player and Ju Ju represents a large 6'2", effective, high-scoring guard...if we cannot contain Ju Ju she may very well be the reason we lose. Foul trouble hurts us more than USC as Geno has precious few options if one of our star players gets into foul trouble. There will be an incredible amount of pressure on the players as the winner advances to the final four. We play two seniors, one red-shirt junior, and three freshmen. USC plays three graduate students, 1 senior, 3 juniors, and 1 freshman. Advantage - USC

Bench

USC will bring 9.2 points and 6 rebounds off the bench. UConn can bring 9.4 points and 6 rebounds off the bench. Advantage - Even

Coaching

Geno has done a great job getting this team to this point. I believe he will have them ready and this team will leave it all on the court. I don't think USC has had to face the kind of defense that they will see with UConn.
Advantage - UConn

Score

UConn - 71
USC - 67

MOV - 4

Actually they won the tournament, beating Stanford 74-61 in the Championship game.

 

[cferraro04]

Actually they won the tournament, beating Stanford 74-61 in the Championship game.

Thanks for the correction MSGRET...my bad. The fact that they did indeed win the PAC 12 tournament makes my point. I shouldn't be doing these analyses at 1:30 am. USC's victory in the finals of the PAC 12 conference tournament further supports my assertion that USC deserves a number one seed in the tournament and that they are a quality basketball team. This will be our toughest game thus far in the NCAA tournament. UConn's path to the final four should they make it was a very difficult one and it will only get harder if they should make the final four.

 

[MSGRET]

Thanks for the correction MSGRET...my bad. The fact that they did indeed win the PAC 12 tournament makes my point. I shouldn't be doing these analyses at 1:30 am. USC's victory in the finals of the PAC 12 conference tournament further supports my assertion that USC deserves a number one seed in the tournament and that they are a quality basketball team. This will be our toughest game thus far in the NCAA tournament. UConn's path to the final four should they make it was a very difficult one and it will only get harder if they should make the final four.

Actually I think that this game will be their toughest unless they win the next 2 and meet the other USC in the finals. Of the four #1's I have it South Carolina, USC, Texas and last Iowa. I also find it kind of funny that there are only #1 seeds vs #3 seeds, all of the #2 seeds were a bust this year.

 

[Dogdude]

My only thought here is that while indeed our players were gassed at the end of the Duke game, it was hardly played at a slow pace. The score might infer that, but it was constant movement all game long in trying to defend a team with plenty of reserves constantly in motion, or on offense, trying to break free of an extremely mobile and tenacious defense. I actually see playing against a team like USC as a break from a grind. I still think it will be a very difficult game to win, but I think at this point everyone is equally tired.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Another reason why this season could be Coach Geno's finest hour of coaching. He fielded a team that was vastly outsized by Duke, which went, including the bench- 6'6", 6'4", 6'3", 6'3", 6'0", 6'0". His team was vastly outrebounded. Yet his six players managed to win and move to the Elite Eight. Pure coaching mastery. Breathtaking season of success that no one could have envisioned.

Breathtaking. Coach of the Year.

 

[Boreifs]

Actually I think that this game will be their toughest unless they win the next 2 and meet the other USC in the finals. Of the four #1's I have it South Carolina, USC, Texas and last Iowa. I also find it kind of funny that there are only #1 seeds vs #3 seeds, all of the #2 seeds were a bust this year.

The #2 seeds were a bust seems harsh. This is an incredibly competitive tournament; a #4 seed almost beat a #1 and a #5 almost beat a #1. The only #2 that lost in the first two rounds was a fortuitous gift to UConn; Ohio State would have been a handful.

 

[FanFromMaine]

Thanks for the correction MSGRET...my bad. The fact that they did indeed win the PAC 12 tournament makes my point. I shouldn't be doing these analyses at 1:30 am. USC's victory in the finals of the PAC 12 conference tournament further supports my assertion that USC deserves a number one seed in the tournament and that they are a quality basketball team. This will be our toughest game thus far in the NCAA tournament. UConn's path to the final four should they make it was a very difficult one and it will only get harder if they should make the final four.

Actually it may be that the Duke game was already the hardest we’ll face in the tournament.

Geno always says the regional final is the toughest game because you can’t get to the Final Four without winning. This year the semifinal had that same pressure. Big pregame buildup based on last year’s disappointment. Could this team survive?

The mental energy that took could well have lead to the drain on the physical energy of the players. USC doesn’t present that same challenge. On to the finals…

 

[Charliebball]

Comments

Here we are in the elite 8... Who would have thought this was possible with Azzi, Jana El Alfy, Aubrey, Caroline, and Ayanna, all of which are sitting on the bench with injuries. With two freshmen in the starting line-up and a redshirt freshman first off the bench. My opinion is that this team by getting to the elite 8 has over-achieved. They are playing with house money at this point. It would be a wonderful thing if we fans can be treated to a magical season where UConn somehow, despite all its adversity, despite having such a short bench and a margin of error of zero manages to win its 12 championship.

It is going to get extremely difficult from here on out. Our players were gassed at the end of the Duke game. That game was played at a slow speed it would have been worse if the game was a high-octane affair. Geno has to be given a lot of credit for coaching this team to this point. Let's hope he has a few things left in his bag of tricks.
USC is a team that is deserving of its number one seed. They have compiled a 29 and 5 record on the season. They were runners-up in the PAC twelve conference tournament beating both 'Zona' and UCLA before losing to the Cardinal in the final. They are led by freshmen phenom Ju - Ju Watkins who is averaging a NCAA second-best 26.9 points per game. She has averaged 22 shots per game through the regular and post-season. Against Baylor, she went 8 for 28 to score a game-high 30 points. She is going to be extremely difficult to defend. Let's hope our team defense will be able to contain her. She is the head of the snake but McKenzie Forbes is capable of picking up the slack so we will have to stop both of them and let the rest of their team attempt to beat us.

USC will start:
1. Ju Ju Watkins, 6'2" Freshman Guard;
2. McKenzie Forbes, 6'0" Graduate Guard/Forward;
3. Ryan Marshall, 6'4" Junior Forward/Center;
4. Kayla Padilla, 5'9" Graduate Guard;
5. Kaitlyn Davis, 6'2" Graduate Guard.

USC will primarily play the starters they only have 3 other players who in the post-season average significant minutes:
1. Clarice Akunwafo, 6'6" Jr. Center - 11.8 minutes
2. Kayla Williams, 5'7" Senior Guard - 11.6 minutes
3. Taylor Bigby, 6'1" Redshirt Sophomore Guard - 10.5 minutes

USC averages 75 points per game while holding their opponents to 61.7 points. USC averages 7.8 three-pointers per game and their opponents average 5.3 three-pointers. The Trojans have averaged 12.8 free throws made per game. Their opponent's average, 11.6 made free throws. They average 38.3 rebounds per game while their opponents average 34.8. They take pretty good care of the basketball only committing 12.2 turnovers per game while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 15.9 times per game. When they turn a team over they are off to the races scoring 18.2 points per game off turnovers. Their opponents average 11.3 points off turnovers per game. They average 8.2 steals and 6.0 blocks per game while their opponents average 6.4 steals and 2.7 blocks per game. USC is a quality basketball team with an RPI of 6 and an SOS of 8. UConn's RPI is 5 and its SOS is 6. Get ready for a barn burner...a game that could end the Huskies 2023-24 season or once again propel them to yet another final four. Let's Go HUSKIES! Let's Go HUSKIES! Let's Go HUSKIES!

Analysis

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Rayah Marshall, 6'4" - Rayah is averaging a double-double for the season. She averages 10.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.1 blocks per game. Aaliyah cannot allow herself to get into foul trouble in this game. We need her to stay on the floor. Aaliyah is averaging 17.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. I think Aaliyah will play inspired basketball as she is looking at possible playing two more game in a UConn uniform. Advantage - UConn

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs McKenzie Forbes, 6'0" - The Trojans present a lot of mismatches for UConn as they will have a decided height advantage in 4 of the 5 match-ups. Putting Paige on Kaitlyn Davis makes more sense from a height perspective however, Kaitlyn is the Trojans 5th scoring option while McKenzie is their 2nd option. We will have to live with the 4-inch mismatch of Shade on Davis if we want to limit USC's scoring potential. McKenzie averages 14 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.2 three-pointers, and 1 steal per game. Paige should be able to dominate this match-up as she is averaging 21.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.1 three-pointers per game. Advantage - UConn

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Ju Ju Watkins, 6'2" - I covered just what a phenom Ju Ju is as a freshman. Nika will have a very difficult assignment to convert Ju Ju from a phenom to an average player. It may in the end be too daunting a task. But, Nika is made for these moments and she would not have it any other way. I believe she is going to need help from her teammates in containing Ju Ju. Ju Ju averages 26.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.4 steals, 1.6 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers per game. Those are All-American numbers and it puts her second behind Caitlin Clark. Nika is averaging 6.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. Some might argue that if Nika can keep Ju Ju below her game averages, she wins the match-up...but the reality is even if Ju Ju plays below her average she will still dominate this match-up. Advantage - USC

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Kaitlyn Davis, 6'2" - Ashlynn did not have a very productive game against Duke. Her total contribution was 4 rebounds and 1 assist. On a good note, she only had one turnover against Duke's very tough defense. She will have to be more productive in this game. I believe that she will treat this game as a bounce-back game. Ashlynn will give up 4 inches to Kaitlyn Davis. Kaitlyn averages 6'1 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1 steal per game. Ashlynn averages 11.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Advantage - UConn


KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Kayla Padilla, 5'9" - Kayla is the Trojans' 4th scoring option but she can and does knock down the three-pointers. Kayla averages 8.0 points, 1.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1 steal, and 2 three-pointers per game. KK is averaging 8.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.3 steals, and .8 three-pointers per game. While I think statistically KK and Kayla are very close, I think KK's defense and her over all game will have more of a positive impact on the game.
Advantage - UConn.

Intangibles

UConn's usual disadvantage of having a shortened bench is somewhat minimized by the fact that USC primarily plays the starting five players and only uses three off the bench for an average of 10 minutes per game. Lately, Ice has been the only player coming off the bench as we haven't seen much of Q at all. We have in the past been susceptible to the opposing team's star player and Ju Ju represents a large 6'2", effective, high-scoring guard...if we cannot contain Ju Ju she may very well be the reason we lose. Foul trouble hurts us more than USC as Geno has precious few options if one of our star players gets into foul trouble. There will be an incredible amount of pressure on the players as the winner advances to the final four. We play two seniors, one red-shirt junior, and three freshmen. USC plays three graduate students, 1 senior, 3 juniors, and 1 freshman. Advantage - USC

Bench

USC will bring 9.2 points and 6 rebounds off the bench. UConn can bring 9.4 points and 6 rebounds off the bench. Advantage - Even

Coaching

Geno has done a great job getting this team to this point. I believe he will have them ready and this team will leave it all on the court. I don't think USC has had to face the kind of defense that they will see with UConn.
Advantage - UConn

Score

UConn - 71
USC - 67

MOV - 4

I think it's going to be a faster-paced game and USC has some talented quick athletes which has given UConn trouble in the past......they must keep Marshall from dominating the offensive boards.............Juju is a high-volume shooter and will be impossible to stop..........hopefully, she won't have a great shooting game........one thing I've noticed is that she has a high dribble and I think Nika may very well notch a couple of steals during the game.......if UConn stays out of foul trouble and plays solid fundamental basketball they have a very good chance to win this game.........if they shoot as poorly as they did against Duke they are going to have a difficult time....,.

 

[MSGRET]

Comments

Here we are in the elite 8... Who would have thought this was possible with Azzi, Jana El Alfy, Aubrey, Caroline, and Ayanna, all of which are sitting on the bench with injuries. With two freshmen in the starting line-up and a redshirt freshman first off the bench. My opinion is that this team by getting to the elite 8 has over-achieved. They are playing with house money at this point. It would be a wonderful thing if we fans can be treated to a magical season where UConn somehow, despite all its adversity, despite having such a short bench and a margin of error of zero manages to win its 12 championship.

It is going to get extremely difficult from here on out. Our players were gassed at the end of the Duke game. That game was played at a slow speed it would have been worse if the game was a high-octane affair. Geno has to be given a lot of credit for coaching this team to this point. Let's hope he has a few things left in his bag of tricks.
USC is a team that is deserving of its number one seed. They have compiled a 29 and 5 record on the season. They were runners-up in the PAC twelve conference tournament beating both 'Zona' and UCLA before losing to the Cardinal in the final. They are led by freshmen phenom Ju - Ju Watkins who is averaging a NCAA second-best 26.9 points per game. She has averaged 22 shots per game through the regular and post-season. Against Baylor, she went 8 for 28 to score a game-high 30 points. She is going to be extremely difficult to defend. Let's hope our team defense will be able to contain her. She is the head of the snake but McKenzie Forbes is capable of picking up the slack so we will have to stop both of them and let the rest of their team attempt to beat us.

USC will start:
1. Ju Ju Watkins, 6'2" Freshman Guard;
2. McKenzie Forbes, 6'0" Graduate Guard/Forward;
3. Ryan Marshall, 6'4" Junior Forward/Center;
4. Kayla Padilla, 5'9" Graduate Guard;
5. Kaitlyn Davis, 6'2" Graduate Guard.

USC will primarily play the starters they only have 3 other players who in the post-season average significant minutes:
1. Clarice Akunwafo, 6'6" Jr. Center - 11.8 minutes
2. Kayla Williams, 5'7" Senior Guard - 11.6 minutes
3. Taylor Bigby, 6'1" Redshirt Sophomore Guard - 10.5 minutes

USC averages 75 points per game while holding their opponents to 61.7 points. USC averages 7.8 three-pointers per game and their opponents average 5.3 three-pointers. The Trojans have averaged 12.8 free throws made per game. Their opponent's average, 11.6 made free throws. They average 38.3 rebounds per game while their opponents average 34.8. They take pretty good care of the basketball only committing 12.2 turnovers per game while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 15.9 times per game. When they turn a team over they are off to the races scoring 18.2 points per game off turnovers. Their opponents average 11.3 points off turnovers per game. They average 8.2 steals and 6.0 blocks per game while their opponents average 6.4 steals and 2.7 blocks per game. USC is a quality basketball team with an RPI of 6 and an SOS of 8. UConn's RPI is 5 and its SOS is 6. Get ready for a barn burner...a game that could end the Huskies 2023-24 season or once again propel them to yet another final four. Let's Go HUSKIES! Let's Go HUSKIES! Let's Go HUSKIES!

Analysis

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Rayah Marshall, 6'4" - Rayah is averaging a double-double for the season. She averages 10.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.1 blocks per game. Aaliyah cannot allow herself to get into foul trouble in this game. We need her to stay on the floor. Aaliyah is averaging 17.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. I think Aaliyah will play inspired basketball as she is looking at possible playing two more game in a UConn uniform. Advantage - UConn

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs McKenzie Forbes, 6'0" - The Trojans present a lot of mismatches for UConn as they will have a decided height advantage in 4 of the 5 match-ups. Putting Paige on Kaitlyn Davis makes more sense from a height perspective however, Kaitlyn is the Trojans 5th scoring option while McKenzie is their 2nd option. We will have to live with the 4-inch mismatch of Shade on Davis if we want to limit USC's scoring potential. McKenzie averages 14 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.2 three-pointers, and 1 steal per game. Paige should be able to dominate this match-up as she is averaging 21.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.1 three-pointers per game. Advantage - UConn

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Ju Ju Watkins, 6'2" - I covered just what a phenom Ju Ju is as a freshman. Nika will have a very difficult assignment to convert Ju Ju from a phenom to an average player. It may in the end be too daunting a task. But, Nika is made for these moments and she would not have it any other way. I believe she is going to need help from her teammates in containing Ju Ju. Ju Ju averages 26.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.4 steals, 1.6 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers per game. Those are All-American numbers and it puts her second behind Caitlin Clark. Nika is averaging 6.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. Some might argue that if Nika can keep Ju Ju below her game averages, she wins the match-up...but the reality is even if Ju Ju plays below her average she will still dominate this match-up. Advantage - USC

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Kaitlyn Davis, 6'2" - Ashlynn did not have a very productive game against Duke. Her total contribution was 4 rebounds and 1 assist. On a good note, she only had one turnover against Duke's very tough defense. She will have to be more productive in this game. I believe that she will treat this game as a bounce-back game. Ashlynn will give up 4 inches to Kaitlyn Davis. Kaitlyn averages 6'1 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1 steal per game. Ashlynn averages 11.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Advantage - UConn


KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Kayla Padilla, 5'9" - Kayla is the Trojans' 4th scoring option but she can and does knock down the three-pointers. Kayla averages 8.0 points, 1.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1 steal, and 2 three-pointers per game. KK is averaging 8.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.3 steals, and .8 three-pointers per game. While I think statistically KK and Kayla are very close, I think KK's defense and her over all game will have more of a positive impact on the game.
Advantage - UConn.

Intangibles

UConn's usual disadvantage of having a shortened bench is somewhat minimized by the fact that USC primarily plays the starting five players and only uses three off the bench for an average of 10 minutes per game. Lately, Ice has been the only player coming off the bench as we haven't seen much of Q at all. We have in the past been susceptible to the opposing team's star player and Ju Ju represents a large 6'2", effective, high-scoring guard...if we cannot contain Ju Ju she may very well be the reason we lose. Foul trouble hurts us more than USC as Geno has precious few options if one of our star players gets into foul trouble. There will be an incredible amount of pressure on the players as the winner advances to the final four. We play two seniors, one red-shirt junior, and three freshmen. USC plays three graduate students, 1 senior, 3 juniors, and 1 freshman. Advantage - USC

Bench

USC will bring 9.2 points and 6 rebounds off the bench. UConn can bring 9.4 points and 6 rebounds off the bench. Advantage - Even

Coaching

Geno has done a great job getting this team to this point. I believe he will have them ready and this team will leave it all on the court. I don't think USC has had to face the kind of defense that they will see with UConn.
Advantage - UConn

Score

UConn - 71
USC - 67

MOV - 4

Don't forget add your score to the Prognosticator's Predictions.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thank you so much for this, @cferraro04! It's been a long season and you've been there for us the whole way. Thank you.

I think you're right about pretty much all of it, including the score. This is a winnable game for us, if fatigue doesn't drag the girls down.

As for Nika on Juju, I think it's most important for Nika not to foul out. She's not going to stop her from scoring 20 or 30 points. We need her on the floor at the end of the game. If she can limit Juju's touches a little bit and make it difficult for her to pass off the drive, Nika will have done enough. Juju will score, but don't let her beat us with passing and free throws.

The matchup that may be the most entertaining to watch is KK on Kayla Padilla. They are similar in some ways -- Kayla may be better as a 3 pt shooter, but KK is better off the dribble. But I think KK is a much fiercer defender and a sneaky rebounder. The difference in the game may come down to how well the guards rebound.

 

[EricLA]

Don't see how UConn wins this game. We had 3 players play 40 minutes and 1 play 38. All of them were completely gassed which is mainly why Duke came back from a 20 point deficit. If Geno won't play Q, I can see USC winning going away as we tire out in the 4th quarter. USC is much more than Juju and no one will be able to stop her. Swarm her and the rest of the team will step up.

Given the injuries, I thought the elite 8 was our max upside and we made that. Of course it's why you play the games, but I'll be shocked if we come away with a win.

 

[ed4ourgirls]

We were placed in the most favorable regional, and so far we have played a 14 seed, a 6 seed,
and a 7 seed. We have made the most of our good fortune. Now we face a 1 seed, and while
we haven't had any bad losses this year, it is also true that we haven't played well against
teams that were higher ranked than us. Hopefully that will change on Monday night.

 

[MSGRET]

I would rather be playing USC in the Elite Eight then playing Baylor. I believe that we actually match up better with USC.

 

[cferraro04]

We were placed in the most favorable regional, and so far we have played a 14 seed, a 6 seed,
and a 7 seed. We have made the most of our good fortune. Now we face a 1 seed, and while
we haven't had any bad losses this year, it is also true that we haven't played well against
teams that were higher ranked than us. Hopefully that will change on Monday night.

14th seed Jackson State...much better than its seed. Good height, good guard play.
6th Seed Syracuse...are you kidding me...Fair, Whoolley, and Burrows...nah they were under-seeded.
7th Seed Duke...It was arguably the toughest game in the regionals...#2 defense in the country...yeah, with tongue in cheek...that was an easy game!

 

[Urshurak]

Don't see how UConn wins this game. We had 3 players play 40 minutes and 1 play 38. All of them were completely gassed which is mainly why Duke came back from a 20 point deficit. If Geno won't play Q, I can see USC winning going away as we tire out in the 4th quarter. USC is much more than Juju and no one will be able to stop her. Swarm her and the rest of the team will step up.

Given the injuries, I thought the elite 8 was our max upside and we made that. Of course it's why you play the games, but I'll be shocked if we come away with a win.

Agree. 100%. I had them getting to the sweet 16 but that’s it. They already busted the ceiling I had for them and I’m GLAD.

HOWEVER, the offense needs to be light years better against USC. Dukes defense had something to do with it, but they have to find a way. Ash in particular. She has got to get a few points anyway. Her play seems to be hero or literal zero on scoreboard. Her defense is great I think.

Knocking off USC is going to be a lot to ask. It’s possible, that’s why we play the game. I’ll never put a limit on what Paige can do. The rest of the team needs to help her though.

 

[Blond D.]

Ash's problem was she was almost face guarded. She had someone on her from the time she entered the gym. Dukes Defense is #2 for a reason. They hound you. USC isnt like that.
I think we will get more open looks against USC than we had against Duke. We just have be to hitting our 3's and our inside shots.

 

[jeff30189]

Given the injuries, I thought the elite 8 was our max upside and we made that. Of course it's why you play the games, but I'll be shocked if we come away with a win.

+1. Hate to say it, but grit and heart only get you so far. UConn is going to need some things to break their way, like Ash finding her rhythm and putting up 20+ point and USC suddenly struggling with turnover and a bad shooting night. They're just out of gas.

 

[freshler40]

I'm liking our chances in this game due to the following;

If we come back to our norm in three point shooting it will take pressure off of others
If four or five starters contribute 6-10 + points that would be closer to our norm.
Paige continues to be Paige plus
Our defense is superior to most teams and played well by each of our starters.
Our seniors stay out of foul trouble
Q plays some defensive minutes against Ju Ju in the first half. She is long and quick.

 

[darkstar1]

Like Vegas, I favor UConn in this one.

 

[Longtime fan]

Comments

Here we are in the elite 8... Who would have thought this was possible with Azzi, Jana El Alfy, Aubrey, Caroline, and Ayanna, all of which are sitting on the bench with injuries. With two freshmen in the starting line-up and a redshirt freshman first off the bench. My opinion is that this team by getting to the elite 8 has over-achieved. They are playing with house money at this point. It would be a wonderful thing if we fans can be treated to a magical season where UConn somehow, despite all its adversity, despite having such a short bench and a margin of error of zero manages to win its 12 championship.

It is going to get extremely difficult from here on out. Our players were gassed at the end of the Duke game. That game was played at a slow speed it would have been worse if the game was a high-octane affair. Geno has to be given a lot of credit for coaching this team to this point. Let's hope he has a few things left in his bag of tricks.
USC is a team that is deserving of its number one seed. They have compiled a 29 and 5 record on the season. They were runners-up in the PAC twelve conference tournament beating both 'Zona' and UCLA before losing to the Cardinal in the final. They are led by freshmen phenom Ju - Ju Watkins who is averaging a NCAA second-best 26.9 points per game. She has averaged 22 shots per game through the regular and post-season. Against Baylor, she went 8 for 28 to score a game-high 30 points. She is going to be extremely difficult to defend. Let's hope our team defense will be able to contain her. She is the head of the snake but McKenzie Forbes is capable of picking up the slack so we will have to stop both of them and let the rest of their team attempt to beat us.

USC will start:
1. Ju Ju Watkins, 6'2" Freshman Guard;
2. McKenzie Forbes, 6'0" Graduate Guard/Forward;
3. Ryan Marshall, 6'4" Junior Forward/Center;
4. Kayla Padilla, 5'9" Graduate Guard;
5. Kaitlyn Davis, 6'2" Graduate Guard.

USC will primarily play the starters they only have 3 other players who in the post-season average significant minutes:
1. Clarice Akunwafo, 6'6" Jr. Center - 11.8 minutes
2. Kayla Williams, 5'7" Senior Guard - 11.6 minutes
3. Taylor Bigby, 6'1" Redshirt Sophomore Guard - 10.5 minutes

USC averages 75 points per game while holding their opponents to 61.7 points. USC averages 7.8 three-pointers per game and their opponents average 5.3 three-pointers. The Trojans have averaged 12.8 free throws made per game. Their opponent's average, 11.6 made free throws. They average 38.3 rebounds per game while their opponents average 34.8. They take pretty good care of the basketball only committing 12.2 turnovers per game while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 15.9 times per game. When they turn a team over they are off to the races scoring 18.2 points per game off turnovers. Their opponents average 11.3 points off turnovers per game. They average 8.2 steals and 6.0 blocks per game while their opponents average 6.4 steals and 2.7 blocks per game. USC is a quality basketball team with an RPI of 6 and an SOS of 8. UConn's RPI is 5 and its SOS is 6. Get ready for a barn burner...a game that could end the Huskies 2023-24 season or once again propel them to yet another final four. Let's Go HUSKIES! Let's Go HUSKIES! Let's Go HUSKIES!

Analysis

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Rayah Marshall, 6'4" - Rayah is averaging a double-double for the season. She averages 10.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.1 blocks per game. Aaliyah cannot allow herself to get into foul trouble in this game. We need her to stay on the floor. Aaliyah is averaging 17.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. I think Aaliyah will play inspired basketball as she is looking at possible playing two more game in a UConn uniform. Advantage - UConn

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs McKenzie Forbes, 6'0" - The Trojans present a lot of mismatches for UConn as they will have a decided height advantage in 4 of the 5 match-ups. Putting Paige on Kaitlyn Davis makes more sense from a height perspective however, Kaitlyn is the Trojans 5th scoring option while McKenzie is their 2nd option. We will have to live with the 4-inch mismatch of Shade on Davis if we want to limit USC's scoring potential. McKenzie averages 14 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.2 three-pointers, and 1 steal per game. Paige should be able to dominate this match-up as she is averaging 21.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.1 three-pointers per game. Advantage - UConn

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Ju Ju Watkins, 6'2" - I covered just what a phenom Ju Ju is as a freshman. Nika will have a very difficult assignment to convert Ju Ju from a phenom to an average player. It may in the end be too daunting a task. But, Nika is made for these moments and she would not have it any other way. I believe she is going to need help from her teammates in containing Ju Ju. Ju Ju averages 26.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.4 steals, 1.6 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers per game. Those are All-American numbers and it puts her second behind Caitlin Clark. Nika is averaging 6.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. Some might argue that if Nika can keep Ju Ju below her game averages, she wins the match-up...but the reality is even if Ju Ju plays below her average she will still dominate this match-up. Advantage - USC

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Kaitlyn Davis, 6'2" - Ashlynn did not have a very productive game against Duke. Her total contribution was 4 rebounds and 1 assist. On a good note, she only had one turnover against Duke's very tough defense. She will have to be more productive in this game. I believe that she will treat this game as a bounce-back game. Ashlynn will give up 4 inches to Kaitlyn Davis. Kaitlyn averages 6'1 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1 steal per game. Ashlynn averages 11.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Advantage - UConn


KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Kayla Padilla, 5'9" - Kayla is the Trojans' 4th scoring option but she can and does knock down the three-pointers. Kayla averages 8.0 points, 1.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1 steal, and 2 three-pointers per game. KK is averaging 8.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.3 steals, and .8 three-pointers per game. While I think statistically KK and Kayla are very close, I think KK's defense and her over all game will have more of a positive impact on the game.
Advantage - UConn.

Intangibles

UConn's usual disadvantage of having a shortened bench is somewhat minimized by the fact that USC primarily plays the starting five players and only uses three off the bench for an average of 10 minutes per game. Lately, Ice has been the only player coming off the bench as we haven't seen much of Q at all. We have in the past been susceptible to the opposing team's star player and Ju Ju represents a large 6'2", effective, high-scoring guard...if we cannot contain Ju Ju she may very well be the reason we lose. Foul trouble hurts us more than USC as Geno has precious few options if one of our star players gets into foul trouble. There will be an incredible amount of pressure on the players as the winner advances to the final four. We play two seniors, one red-shirt junior, and three freshmen. USC plays three graduate students, 1 senior, 3 juniors, and 1 freshman. Advantage - USC

Bench

USC will bring 9.2 points and 6 rebounds off the bench. UConn can bring 9.4 points and 6 rebounds off the bench. Advantage - Even

Coaching

Geno has done a great job getting this team to this point. I believe he will have them ready and this team will leave it all on the court. I don't think USC has had to face the kind of defense that they will see with UConn.
Advantage - UConn

Score

UConn - 71
USC - 67

MOV - 4

I think you are being a bit of a UCONN biased fan in this particular analysis. Benches are not " even." When was the last game that ICE scored 9.2 points? And we have one person vs their three. And Shade and Arnold are not UCONN advantages. Probably the reverse but, at best " even." You are underrating the USC players here. Another intangible ( which also favors USC ) is that many of their starters
are " graduates." Ours are freshmen. I think this game is an upset if UCONN wins. And it will take a better combined effort than we have thus far seen. This, from a really tired team.

 

[schmendrick]

Don't see how UConn wins this game. We had 3 players play 40 minutes and 1 play 38. All of them were completely gassed which is mainly why Duke came back from a 20 point deficit. If Geno won't play Q, I can see USC winning going away as we tire out in the 4th quarter. USC is much more than Juju and no one will be able to stop her. Swarm her and the rest of the team will step up.

Given the injuries, I thought the elite 8 was our max upside and we made that. Of course it's why you play the games, but I'll be shocked if we come away with a win.

All good points.

The way I see it is:

(1) We are playing in April.
(2) We are 40 minutes from another Final Four.
(3) Anything can happen.

 

[Cornell Lt]

I'm giving UConn a big advantage. My reasoning is that I have USC winning big and I've been wrong all year long on the prognostication thread.

 

[maple]

I think this will be a tough game for the Huskies. But it's not impossible. I honestly think the hard losses they've faced this year have helped them a lot with this year's tournament. It's given them a lot to learn from. And they know now that they can win even if things aren't going perfectly well offensively as long as they can dominate defensively.

I think (hope) that everyone will be "on" tomorrow.